$LYFT BTC 7/19 67.5 call at .10. STO at 2.05 on 6/18. Will recover as the stock recovers – it does have LYFT as a name.
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX July 8th 2935/2955-3010/3025 condors, sold Friday for .95
Bought to close $CVS 8/16 50 puts @ .50. Time has marched on and the stock hasn’t moved too much since I put the trade on (sold for 1.34 on 3/1).
#Earnings $PEP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 17, 2019 BO +3.75%
Feb. 15, 2019 BO +2.94%
Oct. 2, 2018 BO -1.79% Biggest DOWN
July 10, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +2.08%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO -0.18%
Oct. 4, 2017 BO +0.19%
July 11, 2017 BO -0.46%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.72%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO -0.17%
Sept. 29, 2016 BO +0.35%
July 7, 2016 BO +1.48%
Avg (+ or -) 1.57%
Bias 1.02%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 132.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 128.62 to 135.38
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 129.92 to 134.08
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 125.72 to 138.28
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 129.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
New CMG Diagonal Call Spread
Sold CMG 07/12/2019 750.00 Calls / Bought CMG 08/16/2019 850.00 Calls @ 0.60 Credit.
If the short does expire I get one more write before earnings.
Here’s a new chart examining the data from all occurrences of the upside warning since 1/1/2000.
–Chart includes first 20 days of each day’s SPX HIGH, as a percentage above or below the CLOSING PRICE of the Upside Warning firing date (in the current case, it fired on Friday)
–Blue represent occurrences when the highest move was +1.0% or higher
–Yellow represents a highest move up of less than 1.0%
–Red represents no move higher before the warning is canceled
–Final columns on right are:
—-Number of days in the warning before it was canceled
—-Highest point of SPX during that UpW
—-Lowest SPX high BEFORE the highest point was reached
As you can see, several UpW’s start with a pullback, sometimes quite deep. But eventually, out of 42 warnings, the SPX moved higher 92% of the time, and moved at least 1% higher 83% of the time.
Click on the chart for larger view.