CMG GOOGL Closed

#bearcallspreads
$CMG BTC 7/19 780/770 BECS for .60. STO at 1.95. Thank you @ramie77

#bullcallspreads
$GOOGL STC 7/19 1100/1050 BUCS at 47.00. BTO at 22.80 0n 6/5.

NUGT adding

Sold $NUGT 9/20 44 calls @ 1.10 (highest strike).
I am now short these calls in Sep 26, 30, 31, 35, 39, 44. I could roll the ITM 26 calls up now but it would have to be to December. Could roll to 30 for a small credit but I’m going to wait a bit before I do that.

Closing XBI

Bought to close $XBI 8/16 78 puts @ .48-.49. Sold for 1.21 on 6/24.

WDC covered calls

Sold 7/19 55 calls @ 1.00, against part of my assigned long position.

DAL earnings analysis

#Earnings $DAL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 10, 2019 BO +1.59%
Jan. 15, 2019 BO +0.16%
Oct. 11, 2018 BO +3.56%
July 12, 2018 BO +1.78%
April 12, 2018 BO +2.93%
Jan. 11, 2018 BO +4.76% Biggest UP
Oct. 11, 2017 BO +0.70%
July 13, 2017 BO -1.76% Biggest DOWN
April 12, 2017 BO -0.52%
Jan. 12, 2017 BO -1.06%
Oct. 13, 2016 BO +1.88%
July 14, 2016 BO +3.58%

Avg (+ or -) 2.02%
Bias 1.47%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 59.10 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 57.03 to 61.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 57.90 to 60.30
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (4.8%): 56.29 to 61.91
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 58.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

Completely out of sync on NFLX

Intraday weakness had me convinced the stock was rejected at resistance and heading lower, and I was looking for quick decay on short dated options. Didn’t work out so I’m closing these before they get out of hand.
Bought to close:
$NFLX 7/12 380 calls @ 4.06 (sold for 2.50)
$NFLX 7/12 382.50 calls @ 2.74 (sold for 1.52)

A TRADE:

TLRY STO 7/12/19 45.5 CALLS @.59 Covered

NFLX reversal

Sold 7/12 380 calls @ 2.50 for this Friday’s expiration

A TRADE: Continuing my assault on this……

OSTK STO 7/12/19 18.0 CALLS @.70

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX July 10th 3005/3020 call spreads for 3.05. Condors sold yesterday for .70. The weakness made me doubt the UpW warning again… shouldn’t have sold this call side with both the upside move threatening and Powell testimony today.

VIX

Jeff, good call on the VIX.

The VIX told us

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