SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24th 2955/2975-3025/3045 condors for .70, IV 7.48%, SPX 3003.

Off topic….Oshkosh air show

Live cam from Oshkosh. Basically the Sturgis for airplane guys. Sturgis the following week. Retirement goal is a 3 week trip hitting both places…LOL Here’s a live stream….daily airshow begins at 2:30 central.

CMG Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Playing this the same way I played ULTA using the modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and little to no upside risk.

Sold 1 CMG JUL 26 2019 600/660/720/725 @ 4.91

Playing this to the downside with only 9 cents of upside risk. What do I need? Needing a decent down move below 720 while staying above 660. Spent a little extra for a 600 strike disaster put since you just never know. The expected move (45 points) to the downside would be perfect!

#earnings VFC

Sold Sept. 20, 77.50/95 strangle for 1.70, thanks for the data Jeff

E-dub dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.25-1.32. Fills have been erratic but I got ‘er done.

DRIP Dec

Some new strikes opened up so I’m getting one on the books. Sold $DRIP Dec 115 call @ 8.50. 115 is now the highest strike.

#contangoetfs

SNAP earnings analysis

#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, representing its entire history.

April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%

Avg (+ or -) 18.30%
Bias -2.83%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.36 to 16.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 11.85 to 17.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-21.9%): 11.32

Open to requests for other symbols.

#longstraddle