SRPT Closed

#bearcallspreads
$SRPT BTC 7/19 165/175 BECS at .40. STO at 1.45. Put the trade on when stock jumped way up as result of drug trial.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Premium is low so I went 10-wide, double size:

Sold $SPX 2965/2975-3025/3035 condors for .45, IV 7.57%, SPX 3005

SPX 1 dayer

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 18th (monthlies) 2935/2960-3040/3065 condors for .90. Sold yesterday for 2.45.

CSX earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings Bought $CSX Jul19/Jul26 79.5 #DoubleCalendar for .33 and .34.

$CSX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC +4.01%
Jan. 16, 2019 AC -0.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -2.06%
July 17, 2018 AC +7.07%
April 17, 2018 AC +7.84% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2018 AC -0.75%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +2.63%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.06% Biggest DOWN
April 19, 2017 AC +5.60%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC -3.17%
Oct. 12, 2016 AC +3.11%
July 13, 2016 AC +2.97%

Avg (+ or -) 3.73%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 79.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.63 to 82.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 76.54 to 82.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 73.27 to 85.73
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.1%): 75.48

Open to requests for other symbols.

ISRG Earnings (high risk)

#Earnings – Normally don’t enter these until the day of earnings but taking a shot with today’s pullback. Might leg into a #JadeLizard on a bounce. Selling the put side down at the 50ma. Hasn’t been a whole lot to do last week or so. Just letting some earlier sales wind down.

Sold ISRG JUL 19 2019 505.0 Put @ 6.70

#earnings #shortstrangles UAL

Sold Aug. 16, 85/105 for .93, thanks Jeff for the data.

WDC

Hey Ramie, our dreams of getting out of WDC aren’t looking so good today.