/ES Swing Trade

#futures

Short ES at 2990…at 2:50pm CST
Exit at 2977..at 7:30pm….
Profit of +13 points on the ES

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Expiring: $SPX 2965/2975-3025/3035 condors, double-sized position sold yesterday for .45.

I skipped monthly expiration 1-dte due to low premium, the volatility spike, and Friday morning settlement.

#earnings NFLX

\Sold August 16, 295/315/420/440 for 3.09, beyond the 1 day max moves. Thanks Jeff

TQQQ

BTO August 2, 60/70 bull call spread @ 6.98

#earnings #closing GS JPM UAL

Aug. 16 expirations
GS yesterday closed GS iron condor for $40 gain
JPM closed strangle for gain of $27
UAL closed strangle for gain of $40
DAL-not cooperating, short call of the strangle is in the money.

Not much premium even in August.

HON earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings Bought $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for .67.

$HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78%
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 1.80%
Bias 1.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 172.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 166.66 to 178.34
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 169.40 to 175.60
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 165.98 to 179.02
Based on DOWN Max only (-2.6%): 168.07

Open to requests for other symbols.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.39%
Bias 2.75%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 365.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 338.73 to 392.27
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 338.48 to 392.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 295.98 to 435.02
Based on DOWN Max only (-13.1%): 317.55

Open to requests for other symbols.