Fear and Greed index

money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed : investors haven’t been this ‘Extremely Greedy’ since 2017…

2019-11-04_11-50-26

TGT put spread

Sold $TGT 12/20 105/100 bull put spread @ 1.46 with the stock at 108.89 and looking like it’s bounced off the lower bollinger band, now above the 50dma. Earnings 11/20 so looking for a quick exit here.

“If it ain’t Boeing I ain’t going”

Well at least that’s what we used to say 20 years ago. Now…not so much.
Bought to close $BA 11/15 330/320 bull put spread @ .76. Sold for 1.85 on 10/23.

UBER earnings analysis

#Earnings $UBER reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history.

Option premium and IV is high… expected move is much higher than its previous maximum move.

Aug. 8, 2019 AC -6.79%
May 30, 2019 AC +1.53%

Avg (+ or -) 4.16%
Bias -2.63%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 30.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.21 to 34.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 2 quarters: 29.23 to 31.77
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 2 Q’s (6.8%): 28.43 to 35.27
Based on UP max only (+1.5%): 30.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortstrangles

REGN earnings analysis

#Earnings $REGN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 6, 2019 BO +0.23%
May 7, 2019 BO -6.34% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2019 BO -3.43%
Nov. 6, 2018 BO +0.75%
Aug. 2, 2018 BO +6.99% Biggest UP
May 3, 2018 BO -1.25%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO -3.58%
Nov. 8, 2017 BO +2.66%
Aug. 3, 2017 BO -2.03%
May 4, 2017 BO +6.70%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO +1.91%
Nov. 4, 2016 BO +1.60%

Avg (+ or -) 3.12%
Bias 0.35%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 312.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 296.19 to 328.81
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 302.74 to 322.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.0%): 290.66 to 334.34
Based on DOWN max only (-6.3%): 292.69

Open to requests for other symbols.

TSLA

New TSLA Diagonal Call Spread
Sold TSLA 11/08/2019 332.50 Calls / Bought TSLA 12/20/2019 400.00 Calls @ 0.55 Credit

SLB

New Diagonal SLB Bear Call Spread
Sold SLB 11/08/2019 36.00 Calls / Bought SLB 12/06/2019 40.00 Calls @ 0.25 Credit.
This goes along with my Covered Call position for this week.

You could do better now