NFLX IBM BUPS Closed Early

#bups
$NFLX BTC 11/15 265/275 BUPS at .40. STO 10/17 at 1.60. Thank you @Raime
$IBM BTC 11/15 130/135 BUPS at .40. STO 10/17 at 2.25.

DIS bullish

#Earnings . Sold to Open $DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spread for .65.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors for .80, IV 7.69%, SPX 3085

#earning Strangle $UBER

$UBER STO 11/8 27.50/33.5 at 1.95. BTC @ .60. Thank you @jeff.

MNST earnings analysis

#Earnings $MNST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 7, 2019 AC +2.96%
May 2, 2019 AC +8.82%
Feb. 27, 2019 AC +8.66%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -3.16%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC +2.65%
May 8, 2018 AC -7.47%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC -14.43% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 8, 2017 AC +1.17%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -1.14%
May 4, 2017 AC +3.30%
March 1, 2017 AC +12.75% Biggest UP
Nov. 3, 2016 AC -3.55%

Avg (+ or -) 5.84%
Bias 0.88%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 56.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 52.63 to 60.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 53.44 to 60.06
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.4%): 48.56 to 64.94
Based on UP max only (+12.8%): 63.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings DIS Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings DIS
Sold Dec. 20, 120/145 strangle for 1.51

Thanks for the data Jeff.

ISRG

#ShortPuts – Strong market so trying to squeeze a little more out of this one. Rolling current short put up to support at the 50 and 200 moving averages and also at the expected move over the next two weeks. Wouldn’t break my heart if this catches some heat.

Rolled ISRG NOV 22 2019 505.0 Put to NOV 22 2019 530.0 Put @ 2.00 credit (5.50 total now)

#spycraft Version 6.1 or so….

#spycraft

Version 6.1 or so.

Trying these again with a small account. Starting value around 6k. They work, the issue is controlling the 1 or 2 out of 10 that go against you and wipe out the gains on the other 8-9.

Here are the mechanics.
Start 28-45 DTE. Sell the 16 delta puts or calls then buy options 3-5 strikes outside that. Manage at 21 DTE or 50% profit, whichever is first.
Set up as ladder so add new positions each Thursday or Friday. As they are managed, roll or close.
Adjustments: back ratio works if you catch it early. The problem is it usually reverses then you lose some on the spread and the back ratio. But if you are going to back ratio I would do it when the delta of the short option doubled to 32.
Other options are convert to butterfly when it hits the short strike. You will still lose but will be much less and if you happen to get a pin then could make some money.
Final option is convert it to a diagonal or calendar. This depends on your outlook for the time the short option is in play.

Will also leg into iron condors depending on overall direction.

Nothing more complex than that.
Plan to start in 2 weeks when my current XBI puts expire in this account. Will post results monthly or so but will post the weekly trades as I open them.

DIS earnings analysis

#Earnings $DIS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 6, 2019 AC -4.94% Biggest DOWN
May 8, 2019 AC -1.03%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -1.10%
Nov. 8, 2018 AC +1.72%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -2.21%
May 8, 2018 AC -1.78%
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -1.32%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +2.04%
Aug. 8, 2017 AC -3.87%
May 9, 2017 AC -2.15%
Feb. 7, 2017 AC 0.00%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +2.86% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 2.09%
Bias -0.98%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 132.5 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 127.48137.42
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 129.74 to 135.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.9%): 125.95 to 139.05
Based on UP max only (+2.9%): 136.29

Open to requests for other symbols.

Earnings blow up EXPE

Did not take my own advice, tried another earnings trade and now losing 6 out of 9. EXPE missed earnings by 0.60 and down over night by 17. Opened this morning down 31 or 22%. Had a #jadelizard at 125/144/145. Obviously the 125 are now way ITM.

Converted to a #fuzzy but will take a long time to make the loss back. Bought the 2022 125 put for 27.92 plus will use some more cash to roll my short put down and out.

Will let the call side expire worthless just to now spend any more money on the trade. This had been my biggest winner for the year. 1 night wiped out 11 months of gains on EXPE.