NUGT Puts Keep Rolling / BA ROKU Closed Early / TSLA BECS

#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 11/29 28 puts and STO 12/6 28 puts for added .35 credit.

#bups
$BA BTC 12/20 315/325 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.25 on 10/30
$ROKU BTC 12/20 105/115 BUPS at .20. STO at 2.80 on 11/7

#becs
$TSLA STO 12/20 360/370 BECS at 1.70

No SPX

Not enough premium so I did not sell #SPX1dte.

VMW

#Earning Reverse IC expiration 11/29/2019
buy 177.5 call sell 182.5 call at 0.75 filled
buy 155 put sell 152.5 put at 0.50 but not filled yet changed to
buy 155 put sell 150 put at 0.85 filled

#fallingknife DLTR down 16%

#fallingknife
DLTR down 16%

ADSK dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $ADSK Nov29/Dec06 170 #DoubleCalendar for .65. Had the order on for a couple hours… just filled on one. As has been the case with these trades, they can fill slowly as we near the bell.

Lower probability as ADSK has moved on earnings a fair amount. But most recent quarters has below average moves.

VMW reports tonight

#Earnings $VMW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 22, 2019 AC -9.94%
May 30, 2019 AC -11.53% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 28, 2019 AC +3.71%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +3.62%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC -2.19%
May 31, 2018 AC +6.14% Biggest UP
March 1, 2018 AC -5.91%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC +3.60%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +1.89%
June 1, 2017 AC -2.09%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +3.49%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +3.35%

Avg (+ or -) 4.79%
Bias -0.49%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 167.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.28 to 177.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.00 to 175.00
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-11.5%): 147.74 to 186.26
Based on UP max only (+6.1%): 177.25

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings DE Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings DE

Sold Dec. 20, 160/195 strangle for 1.34.
Thanks for the data Jeff.

HD closed

#Earnings Sold $HD stock for 220.50.

Nov22/Nov29 237.5 #DoubleCalendar bought for .82 on monday Nov 18th
#Assignment on stock for 237.50 on the 21st
Sold Nov 29th long puts for 18.20 on the 21st
Sold stock today for 220.50

Profit on trade: +0.38

Trades can work even when they initially fail… if you can carry the stock and hold it through dips. Not advised during a correction but it worked in this environment.

DE earnings analysis

#Earnings $DE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 16, 2019 BO +3.84%
May 17, 2019 BO -7.65%Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 4.56%
Bias 2.04%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 169.40 to 185.60
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 169.41 to 185.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 157.90 to 197.10
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 163.92

Open to requests for other symbols.

#shortputs #coveredcalls TRTN Bought to…

#shortputs #coveredcalls TRTN

Bought to close aDec. 20, 35 put for .25, sold Nov. 21 for .50
Bought a March 20, 40 covered call for 36.93. If I hold it that long will pick up 2 .50 dividends. I may collar this but the only put volume in the next 3 months is the one I bought back.
Current stock price is 38.18.

FLT

Breaking out so STO 2, January 290 puts at 5.70 and BTO 1 contract of the 310 call at 7.90

PANW

STO January 200 puts at 1.55

ISRG

BTC December 20 505 put at .45 cents, sold at 4.40

BOOT

STO January 17, 35 puts at 1.05

GNRC

STO January 17, 90 puts at 1.10

ADSK earnings analysis

#Earnings $ADSK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 27, 2019 AC -6.74%
May 23, 2019 AC -4.90%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -1.98%
Nov. 20, 2018 AC +9.74%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +15.32% Biggest UP
May 24, 2018 AC -4.44%
March 6, 2018 AC +14.87%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -15.85% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +3.94%
May 18, 2017 AC +14.69%
March 2, 2017 AC -2.29%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC -3.52%

Avg (+ or -) 8.19%
Bias 1.57%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 156.50 to 183.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 156.08 to 183.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.9%): 143.06 to 196.95
Based on UP max only (+15.3%): 196.04

Open to requests for other symbols.

BBY closed

#Earnings Sold ro close $BBY Nov29/Dec06 74 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Bought yesterday for .54. My bad streak on earnings continues, but not painful today.

PANW

#ShortPuts – A little early on this. Selling just below the 50ma and 200ma support. Let’s see if it holds…

Sold PANW DEC 20 2019 220.0 Put @ 3.50

UVXY

#ShortCalls – Bought to Close UVXY DEC 6 2019 24.0 Calls @ .04 (sold for .70)

ANF closed

#Earnings Sold to close $ANF Nov 29th 16/16.5 strangles for .926. Bought yesterday for 1.99.

Didn’t get the move so worked aggressively to unload at the open when volatility still high, rather than wait to see if the stock will move enough to become profitable.

The move came in BBY, which is where I didn’t want it.

Holiday schedule

Stock market open full day Wednesday, closed Thursday, then half-day Friday (closes at 1pm ET).