TGT Closed

#bups
$TGT BTC 12/20/100/105 BUPS at .05 on earnings surprise. STO at 1.45 Thank you @ramie77

#SueCollar TGT One of the…

#SueCollar TGT

One of the collars I had set up was on TGT, which of course had earnings today. The original stock purchase was at $111.84, and after a roll last week, was protected down to around $96. It’s really run away to the upside. There is plenty of premium in the position still, especially since the Dec13 short 96 puts have become very illiquid. It looks to me that the 300 share position will net out around $503 in profit (including the dividend) by the Dec 13 expiration, a hold of about 2 months. This would equate to roughly an 8% annualized return….right in my target. The ROR is huge given the risk controls in this strategy.

A couple comments on this:
1. TGT is an interesting hold for this strategy due to their dividend timing. Since the ex div is the day before earnings, it is really hard to lose shares to someone wanting to take the dividend—since the short calls retain such high premium the day before earnings.
2. This is a perfect example of having to stay focused on a low-risk/low-return strategy. If the loss of the put premium is too much to bear, it’s the wrong strategy for you (you might be saying “coulda woulda shoulda made $4600 just holding shares vs $503 on the collar”). I get it, it’s valid. But I really appreciate the controlled risk on these things, the easy sleep at night.

On a side note, since I’ve been training intensely on vol for a couple years at Option Pit, I decided there needs to be more vol strategy folded into the collars. I’m now trying to keep the vol spread at less than 3 points between the calls being sold and the puts being bought. To accomplish this the calls need to be sold ITM, vs ATM. ITM calls have a higher vol to counter the higher vol of OTM puts.

Let me know if there’s any interest in this going forward–I get if it’s too boring 🙂

Sue

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Nov 20th 3095/3075 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Fortunately got a bounce from the lows, but not risking another plunge.

I will let call side expire.

#earnings #jadelizard M Sold Dec….

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold Dec. 20, 15/15.50/16.50 for 1.15.
I’m long 105 shares from assignment a long time ago with a cost basis in the 30s. Will add a couple long puts to protect that horrid position.

SPX BuPS Stopped on breach…

SPX BuPS Stopped on breach of 3095. Ouch. I sure seem able to NOT pick ’em.

Trade again

I think these two tweets together sum up the ridiculousness of trading off trade-deal headlines.

Screen Shot 2019-11-20 at 10.00.57 AM

M earnings analysis

#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 14, 2019 BO -13.22%
May 15, 2019 BO -0.45%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%

Avg (+ or -) 8.03%
Bias -2.64%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 15.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.39 to 17.01
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.98 to 16.42
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 12.62 to 17.78
Based on UP max only (+11.0%): 16.87

Open to requests for other symbols.

NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26%
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%

Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias -0.53%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 287.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.37 to 308.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.89 to 310.11
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 247.02 to 327.98
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 255.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

#callratiospread ROKU #tastytradefollow Sold a…

#callratiospread ROKU

#tastytradefollow Sold a Dec. 20, +180/-195/-195 ratio spread for .26.

ULTA

#CoveredCalls – This week looks safe so throwing next week out there. Earnings the following week.

Sold ULTA NOV 29 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.00

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Adding one more…

Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.60