#SueCollar new TGT

I needed a new position in one of my accounts and went back to the well on TGT. The vols and spreads are bumping around big time this morning on TGT, I probably should have waited before locking this in. But I saw favorable vol spreads so grabbed it. Jan 3rd opened up on TGT, but the spreads and liquidity were really poor, so I went with a Dec 27/Dec 13 starting setup.
I’m spending a lot of time now looking at the volatilities on the chain for the setup, and comparing them to realized volatility. The most expensive part of this strategy is buying puts, if you can buy puts “cheap” relative to realized volatility it should help the overall success (that’s also why I’m now comparing put vol to the call vol being sold–trying to eek out a bit more edge). As you know, OTM puts have a higher volatility, and that vol drops as you approach ATM. It’s typically opposite on the call side of the chain (except for tickers with upside danger like Vix and Gold)–ITM calls have a higher vol than OTM calls. It dawned on me recently that tightening the vol spread between the short call/long put strikes would further tighten risk on these. It does in fact lower the delta even more, which is great risk control, but further restrains the upside in grind-or-melt up conditions. That’s the trade off. I’m looking to keep the vol spread now at 3 or less points. The put buy continues to be a balancing act though between volatility and price….since in normal market conditions it’s throw-away insurance. So I don’t want to overpay on price just to get a lower volatility.

If you use TOS, you’ll see the option chain has a different vol than the analyze tab. I keep wanting to ask the trade desk for an explanation on that, but I’ve chosen to use the analyze tab volatility for my record keeping.

TGT Entry: Starting P/L in this account for TGT is zero

BOT 300 shares @ 127.08
BOT 3 Dec 13 121 put @ .95, at the time of purchase vol was 22.37%, 90-day realized vol is 43.1%
SOLD 3 Dec 12 126 call @ 4.00, vol was 24.16%
This was a vol inversion that I grabbed, usually the put vol is higher than the call vol
You can see I’ve sold well in the money calls to get a higher volatility.
Max risk at the onset is $909.00