#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/13 145 calls and STO 12/13 147 calls at 1.47 debit. Stock at 150.58. If called away I would gain .53 on the 1.47 “investment”. I will try the roller coaster a few more times before stock taken away, I think.
Daily Archives: Wednesday, December 4, 2019
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 3120 calls for .20. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
#shortputspread HD Sold Jan. 17,…
Sold Jan. 17, 195/205 for 1.45. I’m count on HD having bottomed after earnings at about 213.
RH Earnings
#IronFlies #Earnings – With over a 20 dollar move expected this has very little if any chance of working. Playing it as a lottery ticket out of boredom. Let’s see a 200 pin on this on Friday. 🙂 🙂
Only filled on one so far…
Sold RH DEC 6 2019 195/200/200/205 Iron Fly @ 4.80
Risk 20 to make 480 (now that’s a lottery ticket!)
SIG alert
#Earnings Sold to Open $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.86. Stock must move over 16.7% to become a loser. Avg move has been 14.57%.
#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Dec….
SHOP put spread
Sold $SHOP 12/20 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.92. Will get out of it if today’s move doesn’t hold.
FIVE earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 28, 2019 AC +6.27%
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 5.62%, robustly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.13 to 126.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.95 to 125.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 91.42 to 142.58
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 112.96
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
AMRN BTO STOCK @22.68
CLDR BTC 10.5 112/6/19 CALLS Earnings after market today.
SIG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO +26.88% Biggest UP
June 6, 2019 BO -1.23%
April 3, 2019 BO +0.54%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84%
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Avg (+ or -) 14.57%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.80 to 19.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.10 to 18.90
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 11.49 to 21.51
Based on UP max only (26.9%): 20.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 10, 2019 AC +5.07%
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Avg (+ or -) 18.68%
Bias 5.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.93 to 226.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 165.90 to 242.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 112.71 to 295.29
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 151.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
SEDG
BTO, January 17, 90/100 bull call spread at 3.50
MRVL straddle
#Earnings BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 calls for .20. #ShortStraddle sold yesterday for 1.65. Will close puts on the rebound.
Options Bistro 