This biotech has a shockingly high IV of 290 and a 92 IVR. 😀 STO 1 Dec20 25 put (8 delta) for 1.30. The bid/ask is stupid wide.
Monthly Archives: December 2019
#earnings #closing BIDU Nov. 6,…
EWW to EWZ swap
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – A slight adjustment and trade repair. With some EWW covered calls DITM and terrible rollability I’ll let the stock get called away next week for a .42 per share loss. Replacing that position with EWZ which has better premium and easier to roll. Selling the EWZ puts down at the 50 and 200 moving averages…
Sold EWZ Jan 10 2020 43.0 Puts @ .46
AMZN BUPS Closed
#bups
$AMZN BTC 12/20 1600/1650 BUPS at .30. STO on 10/25 at 8.49
AMD
AMD
BTO Jan 21 41/43 Calls $0.95 in/out spread with earnings end of Jan
UDOW
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close UDOW DEC 20 2019 105.0 Put @ .20 (sold for 2.90)
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – I’ve got enough in Jan so heading out to Feb for a starter position…
Sold UVXY FEB 21 2020 20.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .80
ROKU Rolling
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/20 152.50 call and STO 12/20 150 call at added .26 credit.
Closing SHOP
Bought to close $SHOP 12/20 345/335 bull put spread @ .35. Sold for 1.92 on 12/4.
COST
BTC January 255/325 strangle at .45, sold yesterday at 1.18
AMD
STO January 17, 40 puts at 1.15, earnings on January 27
TNA
#ShortPuts – Peeling a few more of these off just for risk reduction…
Bought to Close TNA DEC 20 2019 57.5 Puts @ .14 (sold for 1.55)
UVXY
#ShortCalls – Replacing this week’s expiration with a starter size position…
Sold UVXY DEC 27 2019 16.5 Calls @ .61
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Sold AVGO DEC 27 2019 307.5 Put @ 3.10
STNE Puts Rolled / MOMO Puts Closed
#shortputs
$STNE BTC 12/13 40 put and STO 12/20 40 put at .40 credit.
$MOMO BTC 12/20 35 put at .45. STO 11/5 at 1.55.
Triskaidekaphobia
Are you afraid of Friday the 13th?
LK Put Rolled / NUGT Call Closed / LULU MCD LRCX Spreads Closed
#shortputs
$LK BTC 12/13 31.50 put and STO 12/20 31 put at additional .15.
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 31 call at .10. STO at 1.26
#bups #becs #bucs
$LULU BTC 12/20 185/195 BUPS at .30. STO on 11/11 for 2.60. Symmetry$ STO 11/11 BTC 12/12
$LULU BTC 12/20 235/240 BECS at .30. STO on 11/16 for 1.20.
$MCD BTC 12/20 185/190 BUPS at .20. STO on 11/1 for 1.25.
$LRCX STC 12/20 285/295 BUCS at 2.50. BTO on 10/30 for 3.40.
COST
STO 255/325 strangle for January 17, at 1.18
COST earnings analysis
#Earnings $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 3, 2019 AC +0.92%
May 30, 2019 AC -0.81%
March 7, 2019 AC +5.08% Biggest UP
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Avg (+ or -) 3.35%
Bias -1.10%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 297.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 287.83 to 307.17
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 287.53 to 307.47
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-8.6%): 271.97 to 323.03
Based on UP max only (+5.1%): 312.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th 3090/3110-3205/3225 condors for .80. IV: 12.95%, SPX 3167
CMG
TRADES:
LK BTC 12/13/19 28.5 PUTS @.05
STNE STO 12/20/19 PUTS @1.80
LULU
#earnings #closing AEO Tuesday sold…
SPX calls stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 16th 3200/3225 call spreads for 1.80. Condors sold for 1.75 on Monday. I’ll look to close the puts before the weekend.
ADBE earnings analysis
#Earnings $ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 17, 2019 AC -1.74%
June 18, 2019 AC +5.21% Biggest UP
March 14, 2019 AC -3.95%
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Avg (+ or -) 3.27%
Bias -0.25%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 304.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 293.08 to 314.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 295.02 to 314.98
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 282.80 to 327.20
Based on UP max only (+5.2%): 320.89
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU Earnings
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close LULU DEC 13 2019 217.5 Put @ .95 (sold for 3.10)
Green?
Wow is that background green.
TRADES:
BTO CLVS STOCK @12.08 &12.40 A little.
STO STNE 12/20/19 NTM 40.0 CALLS @.85
STO CLVS 12/20/19 NTM 13.0 CALLS @.60
STO CLVS 12/20/19 13.5 CALLS @75
AVGO Earnings
#ShortPuts – I may throw a call spread out there eventually to turn it into a Jade Lizard…haven’t decided yet. For now selling at the expected move and just above the 50ma. Going to next week for a little more premium. Not a big fan of a put sale on this rally but having trouble finding anything to do.
Sold AVGO DEC 20 2019 310.0 Put @ 3.30
SPX 1-dte
SPX 12/13/2019 BuPS, sell 3115 put, buy 3110 put for 0.25
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 12, 2019 AC -3.41%
June 13, 2019 AC -5.56% Biggest DOWN
March 14, 2019 AC +8.23%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Avg (+ or -) 4.24%
Bias 0.91%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 327.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 312.80 TOO 342.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 313.61 TO 341.39
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 299.70 TO 355.30
Based on DOWN max only (-5.6%): 309.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
#assignment ZM Sept. 5 sold…
#assignment ZM
Sept. 5 sold an iron condor/ jade lizard for earnings, the short put was at 85, had an 80 put for some downside protection. I closed that too early. Through rolling etc and selling a Dec. 20, 65.50 call, I have a cost basis of 72.25. ZM stock is at 62.28.
AEO closed
#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 put for .50. #LongStraddle sold for 1.35 on Tuesday. Closed for a total of .55.
DRIP
#BearCallSpreads – Sold off hard to support. Book ’em and wait for the next rally…
Bought to Close DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .41 (sold for 1.45)
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The Downside Warning is officially canceled as the SPX notched a new all-time high. However, this high was driven by a tweet that we humans understand, based on recent history, really doesn’t mean anything. The algos respond and drive us higher. If no trade deal is reached by Sunday, or there’s no agreement to delay the tariffs, we could re-enter a Downside Warning quickly and easily.
My opinion: I don’t think a trade deal will be reached until after the election. However, I do think the tariffs will be delayed. I don’t know how that will affect the markets, but Monday we could be anywhere.
LULU
#ShortPuts – Early on this one. Still holding the 217.5 for tomorrow…
Sold LULU DEC 27 2019 217.5 Put @ 2.80
WDC
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close WDC DEC 20 2019 45.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for .71)
CIEN Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Getting away to the upside so taking a small winner and moving on…
Bought to Close CIEN DEC 13 2019 33.5/37.0/38.0 Jade Lizards @ .81 (sold for 1.09)
Looked great until the conference call started…not sure what was said.
LULU Earnings
BTC LULU Dec13 215 Put @ 1.15. Opened yesterday afternoon at 2.28
#earnings #closing LULU Bought Jan….
KL Covered strangle Rolled / NUGT Puts Rolled / EWZ put Closed / LABU Calls Rolled / CMG BUPS Closed
#shortputs #coveredcalls
$KL BTC 12/20/40 put and STO 1/17/2020 40 put at added .80 credit.
$KL BTC 12/20/45 call and STO 1/17/2020 45 call at added ..65 credit.
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/20/ 35 puts and STO 12/27 34 puts at .75 debit. Spending .75 to get potential .25 “profit”. I have been rolling out and now down since 8/12. Current “profit” is $5200. If put to me tomorrow the profit would be reduced by $3640. Maybe I should just close out.
$EWZ BTC 12/20 40 put at .05. STO at .77. Thank you @fuzzballl
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 12/20 45 call and STO 1/3/2020 55 call at $7.90 debit. Basis now 57.04. Stock at 56.24. Close to throwing in the towel. Stock first bought on 3/5/2019. Bad trading. Should have gotten out of stock much earlier and took the loss. Now eight months of rolling and tracking and loss mitigated but the potential opportunity profits lost by capital tie up …duh!
#bups
$CMG BTC 12/20 690/700 BUPS at .05. Sold for 1.65. Thank you @ramie77 via @optioniceman inspiration.
SQ
#CoveredCalls – Late fill roll up and out a week…
Rolled SQ DEC 13 2019 64.5 Calls to DEC 20 2019 65.5 Calls @ even
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Expired today: $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors, sold yesterday for 1.05.
IV and premium high this week due to Sunday’s tariff deadline. I have a 7-dte expiring Monday that has not changed in price despite two days passing and no movement in SPX.
LSCC
BTO January 17, 20 calls at .88 and , STO January 17, 17.5 puts at .91 cents
Rolling NUGT
BTC NUGT Jan 03 25.5 Puts (55% winner), STO Jan 17 25 put for .38cr
CIEN Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Taking a small shot. Breakeven near the expected move and recent lows with no upside risk.
Sold CIEN DEC 13 2019 33.5/37.0/38.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.09
TSLA
LK
STO January 17, 29 puts at 2.60
CIEN earnings analysis
#Earnings $CIEN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO -3.83%
June 6, 2019 BO +26.78% Biggest UP
March 5, 2019 BO -4.88%
Dec. 13, 2018 BO +8.61%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +12.44%
May 31, 2018 BO -4.19%
March 6, 2018 BO +10.05%
Dec. 7, 2017 BO -1.93%
Aug. 31, 2017 BO -10.96% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 BO +15.80%
March 8, 2017 BO -8.40%
Dec. 8, 2016 BO +15.13%
Avg (+ or -) 10.25%
Bias 4.55%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 35.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 32.28 to 38.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 31.86 to 39.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.8%): 25.99 to 45.01
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU #earnings Also from Yesterday…
LULU Earnings
#ShortPuts – Putting some risk on after taking some risk off. 🙂
Sold LULU DEC 13 2019 217.5 Put @ 3.10
Selling at the expected move and just above the 50ma….
ISRG NVDA SOXL
#ShortPuts – Taking some risk off in case this turns into tariff weekend…LOL
Bought to Close ISRG DEC 20 2019 530.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 3.80)
Bought to Close NVDA DEC 20 2019 190.0 Put @ .22 (sold for 2.60)
Bought to Close SOXL DEC 20 2019 165.0 Put @ .45 (sold for 3.00)
PTON
STO $PTON Dec 20 2019 32 Calls (Covered) @1.00
BTO $PTON Dec 20 2019 25.5 Protective Puts @0.3 (from yesterday)
My basis on the underlying is 24.38 (overall) if I’m doing my math right.
AEO closing
#Earnings BTC $AEO Dec 13th 15 calls for .05. Holding puts for a spike higher. Sold #LongStraddle for 1.35 yesterday.
#earnings LULU Sold Jan. 17,…
LULU earnings analysis
#Earnings $LULU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 AC +7.81%
June 12, 2019 AC +2.12%
March 27, 2019 AC +14.12%
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.36%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +13.08%
May 31, 2018 AC +16.31% Biggest UP
March 27, 2018 AC +9.21%
Dec. 6, 2017 AC +6.42%
Aug. 31, 2017 AC +7.19%
June 1, 2017 AC +11.54%
March 29, 2017 AC -23.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +15.04%
Avg (+ or -) 11.64%
Bias 5.50%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 230.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.70 to 247.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 203.24 to 256.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (23.4%): 176.11 to 283.89
Based on UP max only (+16.3%): 267.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
DRIP closed
#ContangoETFs . Just noticed I was filled yesterday:
BTC $DRIP Jan 17th 150 calls for .45. Sold for 4.50 on Dec 3rd.
VIX / SPX Correlation
The #VIX to SPX correlation is the highest it has been since we had the month-long decline in May. Today’s correlation is -.18. As a point of reference, the correlation hit the zero line a day or 2 before the onset of the May decline. Conversely, the correlation pretty much bounces between -.75 and the -1.00 floor during rallies. As with all indicators, it doesn’t have a perfect track record either. But I’m getting cautious and increasing my cash position.
EWZ
#ShortPuts – Starting to trim down a few…
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.5 Puts @ .10 (sold for .93)
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.0 Puts @ .07 (sold for .74)
Off Topic…
#Bored – Pretty boring week. I’m mostly positioned for Dec monthly expiration which will return my accounts to close to 95 percent cash into year end…hoping for some January profit taking.
Now that I’m semi-retired I’ve picked up a new hobby. If anyone else is really bored check it out. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Getting a pretty good collection on the channel.
AEO straddle
#Earnings Sold to Open $AEO Dec 11th 15 #LongStraddle for 1.35. Needs over an 11% move before losses; avg move has been 6.6%.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 3075/3095-3160/3180 condors for 1.05. IV: 10.67%, SPX 3136.
#earnings #ironbutterfly AEO Sold Dec….
Sold Dec. 20, 13.50/15.50/15.50/17.50 for 1.33
Thanks for the data Jeff
AEO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AEO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 4, 2019 BO -11.61%
June 5, 2019 BO +0.10%
March 6, 2019 AC -0.37%
Dec. 11, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 29, 2018 BO -6.52%
May 31, 2018 BO -1.81%
March 8, 2018 BO -9.43%
Dec. 6, 2017 BO +2.42%
Aug. 23, 2017 BO +7.76% Biggest UP
May 17, 2017 BO -14.73% Biggest DOWN
March 1, 2017 BO -9.52%
Nov. 30, 2016 BO -12.42%
Avg (+ or -) 6.64%
Bias -4.43%, strongly negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 15.30 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.90 to 16.70
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.28 to 16.32
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.7%): 13.05 to 17.55
Based on UP max only (+7.8%): 16.49
Open to requests for other symbols.
PLCE earnings analysis
#Earnings $PLCE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 21, 2019 BO -2.44%
May 15, 2019 BO -6.90%
March 5, 2019 BO +5.70%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -13.38% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 23, 2018 BO -1.27%
May 17, 2018 BO -7.94%
March 20, 2018 BO -7.91%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO +5.92%
Aug. 9, 2017 BO -4.57%
May 18, 2017 BO -0.44%
March 8, 2017 BO +18.26% Biggest UP
Nov. 17, 2016 BO +13.24%
Avg (+ or -) 7.33%
Bias -0.14%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 69.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 61.31 to 77.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 64.41 to 74.59
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.3%): 56.81 to 82.19
Based on DOWN max only (-13.4%): 60.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing ULTA
Bought to close $ULTA 12/20 275/285 bear call spread @ .17. Sold for 1.75 on 12/6.
#butterfly AMZN #tastytradefollow sold Jan.17,…
#butterfly AMZN
#tastytradefollow sold Jan.17, 1640/1660/1660/1670 put butterfly for 1.50
MDB
#Fuzzy VXX Bot Dec 17.5…
#Fuzzy VXX
Bot Dec 17.5 Fuzzy last week for tariff hedge, .18 net debit
Sold at the open for .20 net credit
Basically a scratch
Sue
SPX 7-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 16th 2985/3010-3200/3225 condors for 1.75, IV 14.25%, SPX 3142.
Expiring today:
Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors, sold Friday for .45
Dec 9th 3190/3215 call spreads, sold in a condor last Monday, put side was rolled to:
Dec 9th 3150/3175 call spreads, sold Tuesday for 1.60
BX ZM Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$BX BTC 12/20 54 calls and STO 12/27 55 calls at .40 debit but gained $1 if called away. Stock at 54.39 now
$ZM BTC 12/27 73 calls and STO 12/13 65 calls at .60 credit after stock dropped as result of guidance. Stock
at 66.04 now. Maybe I’ll roll tomorrow.
ULTA
STO March, 210 put at 4.70, I will average down on this one because i only have 100 shares from the earnings assignment devastation.
MDB earnings analysis
#Earnings $MDB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its entire history (8 quarters).
Sept. 4, 2019 AC -5.18% Biggest DOWN
June 5, 2019 AC -0.75%
March 13, 2019 AC +25.58% Biggest UP
Dec. 4, 2018 AC +8.37%
Sept. 5, 2018 AC +9.17%
June 6, 2018 AC -3.27%
March 13, 2018 AC +7.42%
Dec. 12, 2017 AC -5.68%
Avg (+ or -) 8.18%
Bias 4.46%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 133.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 120.31 to 145.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 122.12 to 143.88
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (25.6%): 98.98 to 167.02
Based on DOWN max only (-5.7%): 125.45
Open to requests for other symbols.
AZO earnings analysis
#Earnings $AZO reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 24, 2019 BO -4.41%
May 21, 2019 BO +5.56%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +5.10%
Dec. 4, 2018 BO +6.74% Biggest UP
Sept. 18, 2018 BO -1.97%
May 22, 2018 BO -9.48%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO -11.06% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 5, 2017 BO +0.42%
Sept. 19, 2017 BO -5.00%
May 23, 2017 BO -11.84%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -0.58%
Dec. 6, 2016 BO +0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 5.22%
Bias -2.17%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 1177.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1121.65 to 1233.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 1116.08 to 1238.92
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (11.8%): 1038.08 to 1316.92
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 1256.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 