#ShortPuts – Profitable stop set on my previous sale. Adding another one 70 points outside the expected move…
Sold TSLA MAR 13 2020 550.0 Put @ 6.10
Monthly Archives: February 2020
SHOP put spread
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP Feb 14th 465/460 put spreads for 1.40. Filled when stock hit 493.50, so short strike is 5.8% OTM. Stock has dropped more than that only twice on last 12 earnings.
TSLA closed
Closed final batch this morning for .65… Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles sold last Wednesday for 9.82.
Watching to sell another one, although premium has come in quite a bit. Need another large move or the excitement may be over.
TAP earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $TAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 30, 2019 BO -3.09%
July 31, 2019 BO -5.14%
May 1, 2019 BO -7.54%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO -9.44%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +9.94% Biggest UP
Aug. 1, 2018 BO +3.47%
May 2, 2018 BO -15.40% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 14, 2018 BO +6.26%
Nov. 1, 2017 BO +0.21%
Aug. 2, 2017 BO +2.95%
May 4, 2017 BO +0.92%
Feb. 14, 2017 BO +3.41%
Avg (+ or -) 5.65%
Bias -1.12%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 58.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 54.76 to 61.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 55.05 to 61.65
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.4%): 49.36 to 67.34
Based on UP max only (+9.9%): 64.15
Open to requests for other symbols.
ADBE
STO $ADBE Mar-21-2020 335/345 #BuPS @1.65 – Earnings on Mar 12th. Short put 21 Delta.
LK
On the move up this AM taking 50%….BTC LK 21 FEB 44/44.5/28 #jadelizard @.55….STO 1/30 @1.13..
LYFT earnings
Sold $LYFT 2/21 48/61 strangles @ 1.23. Earnings idea from TastyTrade. Strikes outside the expected move.
NFLX
BTC $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO Feb-6-2020 @1.00
AMD
#ShortPuts – A few more…
Bought to Close AMD FEB 28 2020 42.0 Puts @ .06 (sold for .72)
WYNN
#ShortPuts #Earnings – This was originally an earnings play so booking it on the bounce. There’s gotta be some China risk in this one…
Bought to Close WYNN FEB 21 2020 123.0 Puts @ .98 (sold for 2.08)
ISRG
#ShortPuts – Third time this year so far so don’t mind bailing early…
Bought to Close ISRG FEB 14 2020 557.5 Put @ .35 (sold for 3.12)
SHOP Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – This stock has gone vertical and seems priced for perfection so this is kinda risky. Selling at the expected move. With very few positions on now, earnings is about the only action.
Sold SHOP FEB 14 2020 450.0 Put @ 5.10
TQQQ XBI
#ShortPuts – Cleaning up some scraps that are still weeks from expiration…
Bought to Close TQQQ FEB 28 2020 80.0 Put @ .22 (sold for 2.31)
Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 79.0 Put @ .09 (sold for 1.04)
Bought to Close XBI MAR 20 2020 80.0 Put @ .11 (sold for 1.00)
AMAT analysis — Got anything…
AMAT analysis — Got anything on $AMAT for tomorrow, @Jeff?
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 BO -3.81%
Aug. 1, 2019 BO +7.39%
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Avg (+ or -) 6.18%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 497.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 451.53 to 543.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 466.75 to 528.25
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 43765 to 557.35
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 452.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
EXAS earnings analysis
#Earnings $EXAS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 29, 2019 AC -7.28%
July 30, 2019 AC -2.35%
April 30, 2019 AC -1.48%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +10.51%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +10.32%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -12.66% Biggest DOWN
April 26, 2018 AC +11.63%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -5.82%
Oct. 30, 2017 AC +9.76%
July 25, 2017 AC +6.21%
April 27, 2017 BO +26.63% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +12.55%
Avg (+ or -) 9.77%
Bias 4.84%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 97.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.87 to 105.13
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 87.53 to 106.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (26.6%): 71.17 to 122.83
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 84.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPXpired
#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors, sold Friday for 1.25.
More all-time highs. Who could have guessed?
Closing and re-establishing AMD
Taking profits on the short puts and establishing a new trade to continue selling premium on this (IV rank 41).
-Bought to close $AMD 3/20 42 puts @ .40 (sold for 1.20 on 1/29)
-Sold $AMD 3/20 46/60 strangle @ 1.71 with the stock now at 52.20. Delta neutral with both puts and calls at 19
TSLA closing
BTC $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 1.47. Sold for 9.82 last Wednesday. Holding one more per account until tomorrow or Wednesday, then I will look for another strangle.
When the stock peaked at 820 this morning, and the Feb 21st 1100 calls were going for 11.00. Then, when the stock bottomed near 750.00 a couple hours later, that option was under 4.50. So still, incredible swings in option volatility.
ROKU Earnings
#earnings #shortputs
$ROKU STO 2/14 120 put at 4.85
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Feb double dip on this one. Out for a second time…
Bought to Close SOXL FEB 21 2020 190.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 2.50)
DRIP highest strike in June
Sold 6/19 160 call @ 11.30
LABU
#ShortPuts – Lots of interesting looking earnings this week so glad to see some of these filling…
Bought to Close LABU FEB 14 2020 45.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.45)
EXAS Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Jumping in early for tomorrow…
Sold EXAS FEB 14 2020 87.5 Puts @ 1.05
GILD short puts
Been looking for an opportunity to get back into this stock. Nice setup and still high IV (IVR 60). Sold 3/20 65 puts @ 1.59. The major moving averages converging above the strike price so if support doesn’t hold down there I’ll exit. Alternative trade 3/20 65/60 bull put spread for 1.30-1.35.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Taking this off early after the big bounce…
Bought to Close SPY MAR 20 2020 310.0 Put @ 1.43 (sold for 4.03)
XBI
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close XBI FEB 21 2020 85.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.05)
ULTA
#ShortPuts – Staying involved in this one. Selling prior to earnings…
Sold ULTA MAR 6 2020 277.5 Put @ 2.85
AVGO
#ShortPuts – This should be prior to earnings. Selling outside the expected move and well below all major moving averages. China is a risk though…
Sold AVGO MAR 06 2020 287.5 Put @ 2.21
UAA earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAA reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. I chose $UAA over $UA due to higher daily volume.
Nov. 4, 2019 BO -18.92%
July 30, 2019 BO -12.24%
May 2, 2019 BO +3.53%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +6.88%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO +27.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 BO +4.55%
May 1, 2018 BO +1.52%
Feb. 13, 2018 BO +17.35%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -23.70%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -4.52%
April 27, 2017 BO +9.94%
Jan. 31, 2017 BO -25.74% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 13.05%
Bias -1.14%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 20.70 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.22 to 23.18
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 18.00 to 23.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.7%): 14.97 to 26.43
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 15.37
NOTE: 5-day max moves are -28.47% and +30.29%
Open to requests for other symbols.
LULU
BTC $LULU Feb-21-2020 212.5/222.5 #BuPS @0.12. Was STO Jan-27-2020 @1.40
DRIP
STO the March 184 call at 1.85
ROKU calls
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 2/14 140 call at 6.79
Episode 1 – Billie Eilish, Rush, Grammys in review, Shakira vs. J.Lo
New Pick: Billie Eilish / Old Pick: Rush / Movie Picks: Oscar best picture / Grammy Picks – Blood Sweat & Tears vs. The Beatles vs. Milli Vanilli / Superbowl Pick: Shakira vs J.Lo / Bourbon Picks. Go to https://thepickcast.com/ for playlists and more info.
REGN TNA TSLA ULTA WYNN
#ShortPuts #Earnings – On the golf course all week but still managed a few…
REGN: Earnings…
Bought to Close REGN FEB 07 2020 355.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.80)
TNA: Booking it…
Bought to Close TNA FEB 07 2020 67.5 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.32)
TSLA: Back in on the big drop…
Sold TSLA MAR 06 2020 450.0 Put @ 4.00
ULTA: Still digging out…
Bought to Close ULTA FEB 07 2020 267.5 Put @ .04 (sold for 3.40)
WYNN: Earnings…out a couple weeks for some extra room.
Sold WYNN FEB 21 2020 123.0 Puts @ 2.08
Expirations
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 3280/3300/3370/3390
$CMG 815/825 BUPS Thank you @lesserweavil
$CMG 900/910 BECS Earnings jade lizard trade
$NUGT 34.5 call
$ROKU 132 call
$LK 33 put
$T 37.5 put
Have a nice weekend.
AMZN BUPS
#bups
$AMZN STO 3/20 1985/1995 at 2.85
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 3245/3265-3360/3380 condors for 1.25. IV: 9.12%, SPX 3328, deltas: -.07, .08.
Expiring: Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
Selling long Feb 7th 3225 calls or letting them expire for a (hopeful) credit, after having covered the short 3300’s yesterday. Legging out worked against me this time.
Closing CTSH
#Earnings Sold to close $CTSH Feb07/Feb14 65 call calendars for .02. #DoubleCalendars bought for .28 on Wednesday. Long puts will be lottery ticket for next week.
Econ Calendar for week of 2/10/20
#FOMC Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday morning.
Link to calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
TSLA strangle
Bought to close part of my $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 3.467. Sold Wednesday for 9.825.
Probably will wait for Monday before closing more.
File Under What Was I thinking
#becs
$AMZN BTC 3/20 2050/2080 BECS at 17. STO On 2/3 for 13. Yuck!
ZM Roll
#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 2/14 82.50 and STO 3/6 88 at .09 credit extra. Earnings on 3/4. Thesis is earnings run and stock currently at 88.13. Gain another 9 cents plus 5.50 if assigned. Probably too good to be true.
EWW strangle
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade. Sold $EWW 3/20 45/48 strangle @ 1.20.
TSLA
Yesterday STO $TSLA Feb 7 Calls @10.50. Selling against existing March 21 2020 585 Long calls.
Today – Rolled above $TSLA 800 Feb 7 Call to Feb 14 800 @28.00.
Thanks @optioniceman
Oil futures have weeklies :)
Taking advantage after the drop.
STO the /CL next week 45.5/55 strangle for 0.23. Plan to close or roll by Monday or Tuesday. The theta decays is huge 285 a day on 5 contracts.
Have not had time to post but this is good news, too good not to share.
Working on dispersion trading. Income trading plus directional kicks when opportunity is there.
Will update after the live trading session at the end of the month.
Hope everyone is doing/trading well.
AMZN Roll Calls
#syntheticcoveredcalls
$AMZN BTC 2/7 2085 call and STO 2/14 2140 calls at 1.85 extra credit. Sold against long 2/21 1900 calls.
AMAT, ABBV
AMAT…BTC FEB 20 63 CALL @.05….STO 1/29 @.41…..Earnings on 2/12 selling at expected move…STO 14 FEB 66 CALL @.48….Cost basis with this sale at $56.83…#CoveredCalls #pietrade
ABBV….BTC on GTC order 20 MAR 75 PUT @.20….STO 1/31 @1.19….#shortputs
TRADES:
SYY BTO STOCK @76.80 Been accumulating, 50 shares at a time.
PINS BTO STOCK 26.23 Up on earnings
PINS STO 2/14/20 27.5 CALLS @.65
LULU
#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold Feb. 21,…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Sold Feb. 21, 825/835 call spread for 2.27, chippin away
SAVE Puts
#shortputs
$SAVE STO 2/21 42.5 puts at 1.10
WYNN put spread
With IV still elevated post earnings, sold $WYNN 3/20 120/110 bull put spread @ 2.43. Possibly early on this but strike is below the January lows and the 200 day moving average. If I’m wrong I will close this quickly.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator Forgot to note that yesterday the Downside Warning was canceled when $SPX hit all-time highs. $VIX hasn’t dropped a lot, however, so it may not mean all-clear ahead.
MRVL Puts
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 2/14 24 puts at .53.
TLT
STO IC 139/137 146.5/148.5 Mar 13 $0.63
UBER
BTO Dbl Cal 37.50 $0.60
forgot to post it yesterday.
January Jobs Report
#Jobs — beating expectations
+225,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 158K expected
Unemployment at 3.6%, up by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, up by 0.2%
Wages up 0.2%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.4%, up by 0.2%
December revised up from 145K to 147K
November revised up from 256K to 261K
MTCH
STO April 70 puts at 2.05, next earnings are not until May and $70 is near the low in December.
NFLX short calls
Sold $NFLX 2/21 395 calls (covered by stock) @ 1.75. Delta 14.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 7th 3280/3300-3370/3390 for 1.10. IV: 10.46%, SPX SPX 3343, deltas: -.07, .08
GNRC
STO May 15, 90 puts at 2.35, earnings are on Feb. 13 but, I will take the chance. Stock trading at 102.74
Rolling BA
$BA the short calls from my 2/21 iron condor (290/300/340/350) just got breached with the stock up nicely today. I rolled the 300/290 bull put spread up to 340/330 for 3.73 credit to create an iron butterfly with the call spread. A pretty aggressive roll to near the money but this is a strong move up through the 50 day moving average on volume. Total premium taken on now 6.31 against 10 point wide wings. If the move continues I will roll to March.
TSLA strangle
Yesterday morning I sold the $TSLA Feb 14th 550/1300 #ShortStrangles for 9.825. When the stock peaked around 780 today, these two options were about equal in value… despite the put being 230 points away, and the call being 520 points away! Stock action is indicating that the super crazy moves may be subsiding, despite the heavy skew to the call side. I’m looking to sell another one in the Feb 21st expiration, but I will likely wait until tomorrow. Would like to see this one get at least to 4.90 (50%) before I consider closing.
Since the price target is now $7,000 in 5 years, would love to get a long LEAP but the highest strikes are 1880 and going for 40.00-ish.
PINS earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PINS reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Oct. 31, 2019 AC -17.02%
Aug. 1, 2019 AC +18.62%
May 16, 2019 AC -13.48%
Avg (+ or -) 16.37%
Bias -3.96%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 22.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 19.79 to 25.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 19.03 to 26.47
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (18.6%): 18.51 to 26.99
Based on DOWN max only (-17.0%): 18.88
Open to requests for other symbols.
#rolling TSLA For the feint…
#rolling TSLA
For the feint of heart who haven’t been following this, prepare yourself.
Rolled Feb. 21 inverted 300/430 short strangle to March 20 for 2.69. TSLA up to 770 today, uggh
I’ve now taken in $10,756, trying to avoid assignment.
Earnings chart error: BIDU
$BIDU is reporting on Feb 27.
UBER earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $UBER reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over its 3 quarters of existence.
Nov. 4, 2019 AC -9.84%
Aug. 8, 2019 AC -6.79%
May 30, 2019 AC +1.53%
Avg (+ or -) 6.05%
Bias -5.03%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 33.88 to 40.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 3 quarters: 34.76 to 39.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 3 Q’s (9.8%): 33.36 to 40.64
Based on UP max only (+1.5%): 37.57
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings UBER Dbl Cal? Any…
#earnings
UBER Dbl Cal?
Any thoughts? The vol crush looks promising but, I’ve only done a few.
NFLX
STO $NFLX Feb-14-2020 340/350 #BuPS @1.00. Short put is 17 Delta.
This is one I’m going to watch closely, and will close out quickly if it moves too much the wrong direction.
CMG
CMG TWTR Put Closed / HIIQ Roll Call (Present!)
#shortputs #earnings
$CMG BTC 2/7 820 put at .05. STO at 6.30 2/4.
$TWTR BTC 2/21 30 put at .03. STO 12/30 at 1.20. Thank you @fuzzballl
#coveredcalls
$HIIQ BTC 2/21 24 call and STO 3/20 26 call at added .55 credit. Earnings are 3/5.
PAYC
STO March 270 puts at 5.40, stock at 298 after earnings last night.
CAH
BTC on GTC order CAH Feb 21 52 put @.15…STO 1/29 @.92
Living on the edge
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Feb 7th 3300 call for 37.80.
This was the short spread I sold Monday for 4.30. I must have been high on hopium the next day when I was clearly wrong and didn’t close it.
And today I must be higher because I’m trying to leg out. But if the pattern repeats itself, we get a small sell off from morning gap-up down to flat, then we rally rest of day. So hopefully now my long 3325 calls will rally higher and I will lessen the closing price of the spread from its current 20.00 down closer to 10.00.
Options Bistro 