KOLD you so…

Spike spikey.. this one may never go down again. IMHO traders think they are smarter than market… global warming means no one will ever need Nat Gas again; easy to see 500 in the cards. See my previous posts going back to the 80’s on how to avoid this. Newbies may have face ripped off!

(For those who were not members of OptionMarketMentor, that was a reference you won’t get, but just know that it is funny)

And now in all seriousness, as Iceman indicates, these things can have violent moves. Look at Monthly chart of $KOLD and see what happened last time we got this high. If you aren’t trading this, don’t start now! I am rolling out of my December short calls in various ways, including rolls to new calls, reverse rolling to puts, buying stock, and selling new puts. I have also closed some puts for .10 & .15, which releases about 5K in margin per option!

BTO 100 shares for 217.55 (adding to some bought at 187)
BTC Dec 18th 149 puts for .15. Sold for 1.80 on 12/10
BTC Dec 18th 155 puts for .15. Sold for 2.60 on 12/8
BTC Dec 18th 135 put for .10. Sold for 2.90 on 12/3
BTC Dec 18th 118 call for 99.60. Sold for 20.00 on 11/11
STO Dec 18th 200 puts for 2.80
STO Jan 15th 210 put for 21.90

#ContangoETFs #Rolling #ReverseRoll

#natgas

BTO NFLX BF 123/119/116 puts…

BTO NFLX BF 123/119/116 puts for 1.22 when NFLX was 120.11

$NFLX #ShortPuts #DoubleDip – in…

$NFLX #ShortPuts #DoubleDip – in an attempt to convince the stock to stay below 120, I’m replacing the short puts I covered this morning with Short Dec 18 109.0 Puts at 0.23.
I don’t see the stock breaking below the 115 low set on Monday’s pullback or breaking the 50dayMA currently at 113.84
These expire Friday

$KOLD Many thanks for the…

$KOLD Many thanks for the nat gas discussion below started by Ramie!

Prediction for tomorrow: It looks…

Prediction for tomorrow: It looks like another Fed leak. They raise to 0.25 but basically say “we’re not going to raise again for many months.” I have heard some people talk about them raising as high as 2% in 2016, but I still believe after this raise the next move is a cut back to 0 and possibly into negative rates with continuing economic weakness. Not sure if new all time highs will print by year-end but not that unlikely.

$KOLD roll

I just eliminated my last December call position by rolling it up and out to January for 8.64 credit.

Bought $KOLD Dec 18 200 call @ 18.10
Sold $KOLD Jan 15 2016 210 call @ 26.74

#ContangoETFs

Does anyone’s broker have shares…

Does anyone’s broker have shares of DGAZ to short? Much more liquid than KOLD. Would rather short it than buy UGAZ because of the wicked decay.

$NFLX #ShortPuts – back on…

$NFLX #ShortPuts – back on 06/15/2015 I Sold 1 NFLX Dec 18 2015 580.0 Put @ 39.70 protecting some short December 840.0 Calls.

I bought to close the resulting NFLX Dec 18 2015 82.86 Puts at a penny this morning. Still waiting to cover the Dec 120 Calls by Friday.

#PrepforFed

Today I’m taking advantage of a good up day in the market to take some profits and reduce short term exposure since I have no clue what the market reaction is going to be to the Fed Rate decision.

BTC $SVXY Dec 18 $55 puts

BTC $SVXY Dec 18 $40 puts

BTC $UVXY June $70 call (sold yesterday)

BTC $UVXY Dec 18 $45 calls

I have no $SVXY puts left for this week

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SPY calls

#LongCalls Yes, people, I am buying something. Small position, just playing for bullish move into expiration this week, and a pop after Fed announcement.

STO $SPY Dec 18th 204 calls for 2.50, avg price.

Otherwise keeping cash on reserve for post-Fed trading.

Good morning…

All hinges on the Fed… many traders are sticking to short term as know one knows how that market will react to tomorrow’s announcement on rates. We have just been through a 5.2% decline (from 12/2 high to yesterday’s low)… is that the extent of the “correction” the $VIX has been signaling? A rally this week into monthly expiration seems feasible, but then what? I am avoiding new index trades until we see how things shake out, and looking for shorter term or ETF opportunities.

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA – so…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #IRA – so between 3 and 3:30 Friday I bought SVXY in my “SVXY-Only” IRA at 44.30 and sold the Dec 11 45.0 Calls at 0.20. Since the stock closed above 45, I expected to be assigned, but I was not.

S0… on the opening this morning I sold the Dec 18 53.0 Calls at 0.55 against my long stock.

Sometimes you catch a break 🙂

$UVXY #VXXGame – Liquidated even…

$UVXY #VXXGame – Liquidated even more long stock at 42 and 43(more than half my remaining long) and then sold many more Puts for this week
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 25.5 Puts @ 0.35
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 26.0 Puts @ 0.40

KOLD comfort

#ContangoETFs STO $KOLD Dec 18th 185 puts for 3.05

KOLD inverted strangle update

Rolled Dec 175 puts up to Dec 200 for a credit. Also short the 120 calls in Jan for an inverted strangle. Assuming the 200 puts expire I’ll be left with short DITM Jan 120 calls with the whole position bringing in a total credit of 52 dollars giving me a breakeven on the Jan 120 calls of 172.

At that point I’ll have to decide where to sell the new puts…basically the more bullish I am on KOLD (bearish on nat gas) the higher the strike I’ll sell the puts at with hopefully being no further inverted than the toal premium received. Ideally early next week nat gas rallies and KOLD tanks and I never even have to sell them…LOL

FDS earnings

#Earnings STO $FDS Dec 18th 155 puts for 1.00. Biggest UP move: 9.7% Biggest DOWN move: -6.4%. Average move: 3.6%. This trade is 7.5% OTM.

STC Jan 15 2016 HON…

STC Jan 15 2016 HON 105 Puts at $6.55, bought them last week for $4.10.
I’ll buy some Puts again if HON reaches 100.

$TWTR #Trade Repair I mentioned…

$TWTR #Trade Repair I mentioned this recently, today I sold my Dec. 18 38 puts that were part of 43/38 BuPS entered into in early June. I’ll be the proud recipient of 200 shares of $TWTR with a cost basis of $25.86. This just might work. Somebody but this company.

$SVXY

$SVXY Sold Dec 31st 52 Call @ 1.50 against stock assigned Friday at 50.  Iceman you ar4 so right about these blasted abbreviations.  I keep screwing them up.

$UVXY

Made 3 small trades this morning.  Really don’t want to do much until after the Fed on Wed.

STO Dec 18 $25 puts @ $0.20

STO Jun’16 $70 call @$15.00

STO Mar’16 $165 calls @ $4.50

$DUST $NUGT

These guy’s are really moving today.  Go baby go.

 

SPX all put spreads closed

#SPXcampaign. I have now been stopped on all put spreads. I Reverse rolled one into calls on Friday, but otherwise have made no other rolls.The strategy is not viable in this environment, with 4 Downside Warnings in effect. Selling calls spreads when down so much is also not viable. Fed decision could cause a massive rally.

 

 

 

DUST calls

#ContangoETFs  STO $DUST  Dec 31st 20 calls for 1.05.

STO DUST March 25 call for 2.65

 

$ZSL hitting a four-month high

$ZSL hitting a four-month high

SPX put STOP

$SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 3.45. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 4th as a roll. 3.50 was my stop.

I am currently not entering any new positions on SPXcampaign… waiting for volatility to either kick really high, or head back toward lows. Currently to volatile for this strategy.

/ES #Eminis

$Eminis – Really strange…had a standing order to cover a short at 1993.25. Got hit on that sudden spike down. Turned around 4 minutes later and sold it again for 2009.75. Trying to cover again down around 1995. Some sort of strange news I guess really moving this thing!

I am day trading SVXY…

I am day trading SVXY stock in this madness. May use UVXY too. In and out in minutes with these swings.

$UVXY #VXXGame – Liquidated more…

$UVXY #VXXGame – Liquidated more long stock at 40.41 and then sold more Puts for this week
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 26.5 Puts @ 0.35
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 27.0 Puts @ 0.43 (edit to correct the price)

$KOLD

STO Jan’16 $130 puts @ $1.25

STO Feb’16 $100 puts @ $1.25

SPX calls closed

BTC $SPX Dec 17th 2125/2150 for .20. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Keeping out of the way of a possible bear market rally on monthly expiration with Friday AM settlement.

$VIX Indicator

Once initial warnings fire, secondary signals are less significant, but still signal likelihood of a correction. Friday saw a signal and we just touched above 25.60, which is 100% higher than the Oct 28 $VIX low. So that’s the fourth warning since Nov 13th.

$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY…

$UVXY #ShortPuts – Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 25.5 Puts @ 0.40

$KOLD

STO May $90 puts @ $2.10

#contangoetfs

$UVXY #VXXGame #Weeklys- Sold these…

$UVXY #VXXGame #Weeklys- Sold these on the opening rotation with the stock just below 40. All these expire Friday
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 24.0 Puts @ 0.20
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 24.5 Puts @ 0.26
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 26.0 Puts @ 0.38
-also –
Sold UVXY Dec 18 2015 95.0 Calls @ 0.51

KOLD cocked

#ContangoETFs New $KOLD call strikes up to 230. Probably best to buy them or ignore them!

$SVXY

BTC Dec 24 $64 Calls @ $0.05

$SVXY $UVXY

I was away from the market for most of Friday.  I went into the day with 3 positions ready to expire.  $UVXY $40 calls, $SVXY $45 and $50 puts.  The only thing that would affect these was a big sell off, which is obviously what happened.  Early in the day it sure looked to me like there was little chance of the market bouncing, so with $SVXY about $49.50, I closed my $50 puts for $1 (sold for $0.50 so lost $150).  I closed my $45 puts to cover the loss and still book a profit just in case.  I held onto my $UVXY $40 calls as I did not think it would get there.  I checked on the market with about 1.5 hrs left until the close, $UVXY was about $37.5.  I was going to be in meetings the rest of the day so I closed out the position for $.15 (sold for $0.45).

So at the end of the day I had nothing left to expire.

Good morning…

I will be picking any entries sparingly and carefully before the FOMC decision. The downside risk is evident, but whichever decision they announce on Wednesday could send markets screaming higher, at least briefly. As for the #SPXcampaign, I was stopped out of put spreads and closed several call spreads Friday, and for now will be easing off on the normal weekly entries in the face of unpredictable volatility.

UVXY – new calls available…

UVXY – new calls available up to the 65 strike for all the January Weeklys

$UVXY – Sold 200 UVXY…

$UVXY – Sold 200 UVXY at 41.00 in the pre-market. Left over from an old put assignment at 40 from several months ago. Its going to be that type of day.

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign, in the last hour of the session, BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday as a roll.

#OptionsExpiration – volatile week. GMCR…

#OptionsExpiration – volatile week. GMCR ruined what would have been a good month to date.

DUST (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 15 Puts
DUST (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 19 Calls
KMI (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 15.5 Puts
NFLX (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 115 Puts
NUGT (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 36.5 Calls

SVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 65 Calls
SVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 70 Calls

UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 20 Puts
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 21 Puts
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 21.5 Puts

UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 41 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 42 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 43 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 44 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 55 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 60 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 65 Calls
UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 70 Calls

WYNN (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 61.5 Puts
WYNN (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 57 Puts

— Assignments —
GMCR (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 60 Calls – had to buy in the stock to cover the calls
GMCR (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 61 Calls – ”

SVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 47 Puts
SVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 48 Puts
SVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 49 Puts

UVXY (Weekly) Dec 11 2015 38 Calls (Covered)

Options Expiration for Dec 11

Expiring:
$NUGT 12/11/2015 36.50 calls
$UVXY 12/11/2015 41.00 calls
$UVXY 12/11/2015 55.00 calls

No assignments today.

#OptionsExpiration

Expiration:

Expired worthless, full credit:
$SPX 2005/1995 BuPS. Sold for .50 on 12/7,

Next week should be interesting, to say the least!

#OptionsExpiration

Closing SVXY to avoid assignment

Bought to close $SVXY Dec 11 45 put @ .35 as it dipped below the strike price minutes before the close. Sold for 1.50 on 11/12 so I’ll take my 75% of max profit off to avoid the risk. Already plenty long SVXY…

Options Expiration 12/11/15

These expired worthless, full credit:
$DUST 30 call
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 74 call
$SPX 2085/2110 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads

Assignment:
$VLO 69 put, partial short stock position covered

Have a great weekend everyone! I’ll be checking in on the blog all weekend.

#OptionsExpiration

SPXW call spreads

BTC Dec 19 2150/2160 for .05 Sold for 1.00 on 11/17.

Consider some low cost hedges…

Consider some low cost hedges in case the market pulls another August 24th on Monday. Buy OTM options that will do well with a 2 SD move. They will be low cost enough that you won’t care about losing if market rebounds, or they will profit nicely at Monday’s open. If you’re certain Monday will be ugly, go bigger

SPX same week puts

Waiting till the end rarely works… had to pay up, 14.00, to exit my Dec 11th 2025/2000 spread. Will make it up some day when the market finishes its correction and heads to new highs. Could be awhile.

SPX stop

#SPXcampaign Had to take another one ahead of the weekend… can’t get stuck with these monthly spreads that could easily be in the money should next week crash.

BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1925/1900 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 19th.

SPX, fresh LOD

SPX, fresh LOD

STO Jan2 SPX 2120/2135 1.70…

STO Jan2 SPX 2120/2135 1.70 to make IC again
closed 2160/2175 for .50 this AM, will close again for 50%

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame #TopOfTheChain Sold…

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame #TopOfTheChain
Sold 1 UVXY Mar 18 2016 165.0 Call @ 3.30
Sold 1 UVXY Jan 20 2017 170.0 Call @ 12.10

SPX stop

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1945/1920 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.35 on Nov 23rd. Hopefully the last spread I will have to stop, although I will look at what is left and consider closing early before a possible Monday crash.

Another #VXXGame trade Proceeding cautiously…

Another #VXXGame trade
Proceeding cautiously here, being really picky about which opportunities to jump on.

Sold $UVXY Dec 24 70 call (highest strike) @ 1.85. Adding to position at a higher premium.

SPX call spread roll

#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2110/2135 call spreads for 2.00. This is a #ReverseRoll from the Dec 24th put spread stopped out today. This is the only call-roll I will use today, as I do not want to throw all my risk up there only to have a huge bear-market rally next week. Waiting for Monday to look at further rolls.

$SVXY

$SVXY  BTC Today’s 45 Put @ .30 to avoid potential assignment risk this afternoon as I will be away the last part of the day.  STO @ 2.00 on 11/13.

More call spreads closed

#SPXcampaign Clearing decks so I can roll some of these spreads down so I can #ReverseRoll from the put spreads

BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 18th (part of a roll)
BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 27th

$SPY Iron Condor STO January…

$SPY Iron Condor STO January 22 for 2.02 215/210(calls)/195/190

VIX signal fired

#VIXIndicator We are already under a triple $VIX Warning, but another signal just fired, as 24.18 is 25% above yesterday’s close. The Downside risk is increasing (duh).

KOLD cocked

#Contango ETFs Bought 100 shares of $KOLD for 187.90. Need to cover my short calls for next week, so buying a bit now in case price continues higher next week.

$VIX crossed 23; IV30 of…

$VIX crossed 23; IV30 of VIX (vol of VIX) up to 117.5%

Feeling very panicky. So.. ya know, let’s not.

$SPX low of day

$SPX low of day

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#Welcome

KOLD turkey

#ContangoETFs Added another margin-free put, STO $KOLD Dec 18th 170 put for 2.50

$UVXY Roll rolled $UVXY dec….

$UVXY Roll rolled $UVXY dec. 11 32 covered calls to Dec 18 35 calls for a credit

Eminis

#Eminis – Bought to close DEC 15 (Wk2) 2050 CALL @1.40 (sold for 10.00 yesterday)

and on a little bounce this morning:

SOLD JAN 16 2050 CALL @ 30.75

This would get me short at 2080.75 Still short a couple contracts as a hedge and rolled those from Dec to Mar this morning. Today is the big quarterly roll day for the Eminis…Was short 3 contracts but covered one at 2058 breakeven earlier this week…grrr!

SVXY call scalp

Bought to Close SVXY DEC 11 2015 54.0 Calls @ .05

Sold these for a dollar yesterday with house money after closing short 57’s and 60’s.

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame #topofthechain Sold…

$UVXY #ShortCalls #VXXGame #topofthechain
Sold 2 UVXY Jan 15 2016 170.0 Calls @ 0.72
Sold 1 UVXY Mar 18 2016 165.0 Call @ 2.57

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2170/2195 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 24th. Want to clear the call side so I can sell more… it is the safer play in this environment.

SPX stop

#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1935/1910 put spread for 2.90. Sold of 1.35 for Nov 23rd

UVXY January

I tried to take this trade last week when Iceman posted it but I missed it. Caught it today though, and now the premium is even better than my sale. I may sell more if it continues to rise.

Sold $UVXY Jan 15 2016 170 calls @ .70.

Thanks Iceman.

A squeeze trade gone sour….got…

A squeeze trade gone sour….got stopped out of FB at $3.04; I didn’t pay attention to my indicators, they were pointing bearish, but since it was FB, I went bullish and bought Calls….Ain’t that stupid of my part?

$JBLU

BTC Dec 25 Puts @ 0.95.  I decided to not hang around until next week hoping for a bounce with the lowered forward guidance.  Originally sold @ 0.60 so a small loss.