fuzzballl 9:55 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Worst case scenario? CHAPTER 11…what are the odds?

Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/UAA–Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

Bottom feeders in my accounts:

AAOI: 3%
TEVA: 48%
UAA: 13%

geewhiz112 5:51 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: OptionsExpiration ( 794 )

Expired

#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2540/2515 BECS 300 loss per contract

Option Iceman 1:24 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

$TSLA – initial move has…

$TSLA – initial move has it down to 305ish.

fuzzballl 12:50 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

TEVA

Not really #Earnings but sort of. Uncovering my stock just in case something crazy happens.

Bought to Close TEVA NOV 3 2017 15.5 Calls @ .19 (sold for .32)

thomberg1201 12:44 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: butterfly ( 15 ), Earnings ( 3,108 ), LongPutSpread ( 15 )

#earnings FB #butterfly #longputspread Nov….

#earnings FB
#butterfly #longputspread
Nov. 17 sold 177.50/182.50/182.50/185 puts for .86 credit, possible 346 above 179, bought 180/172.50 for 1.59 to cover the downside.

Ramie 12:38 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Last of the DRIPs

Closed the last of my positions in this ticker at .05. Was a nice run starting in July, and now completely out of it. Not sure if we’ll get another shot at this one anytime soon.
Bought to close $DRIP Dec 15 35 calls @ .05. Sold for 3.58, 4.00 and 5.00 from 6/7-6/21.

Option Iceman 12:32 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

$TSLA #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold…

$TSLA #ShortPuts #Earnings – Sold TSLA Nov 3 2017 270.0 Puts @ 0.72 with the stock at 321.90.
These Expire Friday

jdietz1954 12:29 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

#SPXCampaign Sold to open a…

#SPXCampaign Sold to open a Bull Put spread, Nov 22nd 2500/2480 for 1.00 when SPX was at 2580.33. Immediate fill at the mark. Hate that because it makes me feel like I missed something. Should have added a nickel. I’ll be out before holiday travels.

Jeff 12:24 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

FB earnings

#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold $FB Nov 3rd 192.5 covered calls for 1.15 and 1.30

Kelly 12:18 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

$SVXY

STO $SVXY Nov 10 $80 puts @ $0.33

Ramie 12:14 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

$FB Earnings

Going outside the expected move and selling puts (in the Nov monthly series) at a level where I wouldn’t mind owning the stock. Basis would be 168.35.
Sold $FB Nov 17 170 puts @ 1.65.

geewhiz112 12:11 pm on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX Campaign Quickie / SPX Not So Quickie / Short Puts

#spxcampaign
Quickie
$SPX STO 11/13 2590/2565 BECS @ 16.70
$SPX BTC 11/13 2590/2565 BECS @ 14.00 One day trade. Thank you @jeffcp66

Not as Quickie
$SPX STO 11/13 2565/2590 BUPS @ 8.15

#shortputs
$STX STO 12/15 36 put @ 1.05
$EXPE STO 11/17 120 put @ 1.20
$CREE STO 12/15 35 put @ 1.50
$MZOR STO 11/17 55 put @ 1.30
$EXAS STO 11/10 51.5 put @ 1.20

fuzzballl 11:24 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

TSLA

#Earnings – This could get exciting…selling 1.5x the expected move.

Sold TSLA NOV 3 2017 290.0/350.0 Strangle @ 4.65

fuzzballl 11:20 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

FB

#Earnings – Going super bullish and/or getting a little stock at close to wherever it drops to if she tanks. I’m happy either way…

Sold FB NOV 3 2017 190.0/185.0 Bull Put Spread @ 3.50

thomberg1201 11:08 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: EarningsTrade ( 39 ), IronCondor ( 244 )

#earningstrade TSLA Nov 17 #ironcondor…

#earningstrade TSLA

Nov 17 #ironcondor 260/270/380/390 for 1.20 TSLA is at 322

fuzzballl 10:35 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 )

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Surprise fill prior to the Fed announcement. Loading up more theta…

Rolled TLT NOV 17 2017 127.0 Puts to DEC 15 2017 127.0 Puts @ .66 credit

Jeff 10:30 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: InverseCondor ( 7 ), ITMroll ( 83 ), ReverseRoll ( 144 ), SPXcampaign ( 2,265 )

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign $SPX

Closed Nov 8th 2525/2550 call spreads for 23.75. Sold last Wednesday for 19.40.
#ITMroll Sold Nov 15th 2540/2565 call spreads for 20.70.

Closed Nov 8th 2540/2565 call spreads for 22.65. Sold for 19.35 on Oct 24th.
#InverseCondor Rolled to Nov 15th 2575/2600 calls and 2595/2570 put spreads for 23.25.

Stopped Nov 10th 2600/2625 call spreads for 3.80 (4.00 stop was hit)
Working on a #ReverseRoll

hcgdavis 10:25 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Oil trade, looks like the…

Oil trade, looks like the opec changes are working and oil is staying in a tighter range.

Futures margin currently $2700 per contract so would not sell anymore options than you can cover.

I am currently only selling 5 contracts as I need margin to cover GILD shares at end of week.

/CL strangle Feb 18 46/63 for 0.48 credit which is $2400 credit on 5 contracts. Initial margin 6000 but I have my cushion to cover the contracts if we have an extended move.

Goal is to take off in 4 weeks for 50% profit. Those levels are currently delta 8 and they decay to delta 4 in 4-5 weeks.

Just filled at 0.48

Option Iceman 8:43 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: FallingKnife ( 963 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

$NFX #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$NFX #ShortPuts – Bought to close 1 NFX Dec 15 2017 23.0 Put @ 0.05. It won’t trade any lower and has almost 2 months to run until expiration.
Originally sold at 1.20 on 08/03/17 as a #FallingKnife trade.

Jeff 8:33 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

TSLA earnings

#Earnings Sold $TSLA Nov 3rd 320/325/330 unbalanced (2/3/1) put butterfly for 2.15.
Bought two 320 puts, sold 3 325 puts, bought one 330 put. Net credit 2.15.

Max profit with 325 pin, 7.15. Minimum profit if above 325, 2.15 . Max loss of 2.85 to downside below 320.

Option Iceman 8:30 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 ), Speculation ( 39 )

$UAA #ShortPuts #Speculation – Sold…

$UAA #ShortPuts #Speculation – Sold UAA Nov 24 2017 12.0 Puts @ 0.53 with the stock at 12.06.

Option Iceman 8:25 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

$BBBY #CoveredCalls – Sold BBBY…

$BBBY #CoveredCalls – Sold BBBY May 18 2018 25.0 Calls @ 0.77

fuzzballl 8:18 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: IRA ( 431 ), LongCallDiagonals ( 99 )

#LongCallDiagonals help!

If anyone sees or notices any issues with these #LongCallDiagonals please throw it out there. Maybe we can fine tune for even more safety or profits. I got the idea from Whiz but applying it to my own underlyings. He’s been trading them for years but maybe we can improve on it.

Kinda like my cockpit briefing with the other guy (or gal 🙂 ) …if you see me doing something stupid ask me what the heck I’m doing…LOL I’ve got pretty thick skin!

#ira

fuzzballl 7:53 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: LongCallDiagonals ( 99 ), LongPutDiagonals ( 56 )

GE

#LongCallDiagonals -Not in this yet…waiting for 2020’s but here’s what I’m looking at based on Jan 2019 numbers

1. Sell 23 puts and buy 23 calls (synthetic long stock)
2. Buy 20 puts for protection for disasters

All of that for a .75 credit so max loss of 2.25 so only need to sell 3.5 cents per week to cover max loss. Anything above that goes straight to profits.

#longputdiagonals

fuzzballl 7:10 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: LongCallDiagonals ( 99 )

DIS

#LongCallDiagonals – 115 weeks to go. 🙂

Bought to Close DIS NOV 3 2017 99.5 Calls @ .01 (sold for .36)

Sold DIS NOV 10 2017 99.0 Calls @ 1.36

fuzzballl 7:06 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: RocketManHedge ( 45 )

SPX hedge

#RocketManHedge – Only need to collect 4.15 per week to carry this as a free hedge…this week’s looks safe so selling next week. So far it’s looking like carrying a short SPX position out to Jan expiry might actually turn a profit with market up or down (down would be better 🙂 )

Sold SPX NOV 10 2017 2560.0 Put @ 5.20

Selling against synthetic short in January…

Jeff 7:01 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

MA earnings closed

#Earnings BTC $MA Nov 3rd 150/148 put spreads for .25. Sold for 1.00 on Monday.

fuzzballl 7:00 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: ShortStrangles ( 716 )

TSLA

#Shortstrangles – Jan 500 call looking safe so re-loading.

Sold TSLA JUN 15 2018 170.0/510.0 Strangle @ 6.01

fuzzballl 6:56 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 )

TLT

#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Missed one yesterday. Keeping the theta coming in on these. I’ll be rolling a lot more after FOMC today.

Rolled 6 TLT NOV 17 2017 121.0 Calls to TLT DEC 15 2017 121.0 Calls @ .35 credit

Option Iceman 6:53 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

$RRC #CoveredCalls – Sold 1…

$RRC #CoveredCalls – Sold 1 RRC JUN 15 2018 23.0 Call @ 1.20

Option Iceman 6:49 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

$M #CoveredCalls – Sold M…

$M #CoveredCalls – Sold M MAY 18 2018 26.0 Calls @ 0.63

Option Iceman 6:46 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Tags: FallingKnife ( 963 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

$RIG #ShortPuts – Bought to…

$RIG #ShortPuts – Bought to close RIG Nov 17 2017 8.0 Puts @ 0.01.
Originally sold in May at 0.40 and 0.50 as #FallingKnife trades

Kelly 6:41 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

$EA

STO Nov 24 $105 puts @ $.62

Bobbie 6:24 am on Wednesday, November 1, 2017

gm – it’s time for…

gm – it’s time for TSLA Iron Fly Nov 10 300/320//300/280 for 16.80 cr? or Nov 3 300/325//300/275 19.93 cr. Might want to check to make sure I did this correctly.