#VIXIndicator Since 2000, what happened today has happened 8 times previously: a Downside Warning going into effect after it had been canceled, with no Upside Warning in between. On half of those occasions, the subsequent drop in the SPX was lower than the first warning, and in the other half, it was roughly the same. So in other words, every occurrence resulted in at least a test of the lows, and half of those times we went significantly lower.
Monthly Archives: February 2018
@fibwizard you on line? Are…
@fibwizard you on line?
Are you using tick or range charts currently? I am finding the range charts are responding too slowly now with the increased volatility.
Any suggestions for tick settings for say /es, /ym. /nq, /cl, /gc if you are trading those?
Thanks
#spycraft Booking profits already on…
Booking profits already on the call side of the /ES 37DTE 2480/2900 strangle. Sold the call side for 3.50, BTC after hours (it trades 23/5) for 2.05. 42% profit in few hours so I will book it.
Will leave the put side on and if we get a bounce sell calls again after runup. If we roll down will short 2 futures which would offset the loss all the way down to 2300 or lower, actually the p/l graph at that point shows a 13k profit. The cool thing with futures is you do not always need the same # of contracts as options because of the delta weighting. A future contract carries a hard delta of +-50 and these options are so far OTM you do not need 1:1 ratio for covering like a stock ticker.
UPS
#Fuzzy – Had a fill while I was out today, BTC UPS Mar02’18 109 calls for 0.05, sold for 0.43. My core position UPS Mar29’18 108/108/106 Fuzzy is currently unhedged.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
Stopped: $SPX March 29th 2625/2600 put spreads for 2.85. Sold yesterday for 1.45.
#Rolling: Sold April 6th 2550/2525 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
Stopped: March 2nd 2725/2700 put spreads for 9.60. Sold for 5.20 on Friday.
CRUS
#SyntheticStock #LongCalls -With 5 wide strikes out in Jan 2019 I just decided to buy the calls outright instead of going synthetic. A little more out of pocket up front but a much lower max loss due to the “5 wide”. This replaces my MU position..
Bought to Open CRUS JAN 18 2019 45.0 Calls @ 6.90
46 week to go so 15 cents a week required….didn’t get a chance to sell the first hedge yet.
Downside Warning reinstated at close
#VIXIndicator A rare occurrence so soon after a cancelation.
New synthetic ideas?
Strolling through my watchlists looking for anything that’s at an extreme that looks like a good entry for synthetic. Not considering anymore drug/biotech/energy since I’m in those already. So far I’m seeing these:
ALK (already in LUV)
AMBA (earnings tomorrow)
CRUS (liking it)
DIS (on more weakness)
EWW (getting close)
FXI (getting close)
IWM (on more weakness)
NTES (on more weakness)
OLED (once it forms a base)
REGN (in it already but sure seems ready to reverse)
SHAK (decent premium on cheap stock)
TBT (go short)
TLT (go long) saw UOA (bullish) in TLT today…not sure what exactly
SPX Campaign / Short Puts PRLB
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 3/9 2800/2775 BECS at 6.00 Thank you @jeffcp66
#shortputs
$PRLB STO 3/16 105/110 BUPS @ 1.20
Spycraft / Short Put ALGN / Closed Early BABA
#spycraft
$SPX STO 4/20 2480/2900 Strangle for 18.90 Thank you @hcgdavis
#shortputs
$ALGN STO 4/20 230/240 BUPS at 1.50
Closed Early
$BABA BTC 3/16 200/190 BECS at 20% of full profit
MU
#SyntheticStock – This was a poorly managed trade from the beginning. I’ve got to learn more patience with these things. I entered the trade on Jan 26th and the stock went down almost immediately. Sold some nice hedges but got streamrolled in the massive whipsaw. This could’ve been a 5k winner but the weekly hedge sale has blocked the entire profit from the reversal point. Instead of holding it and trying to roll I’m taking it off for a scratch after commissions. I’ve got to get better at this or quit picking stocks that explode higher 🙂 🙂 .
Sold to Close MU JUL 20 2018 43/43/41 Synthetic
Bought to Close MU MAR 29 2018 44.0 Calls
All said and done…even after commissions but feels like a loser!
#pietrade Rolled GM 42.5 put…
Rolled GM 42.5 put this week to next for 0.33 credit. Cost basis now 39.30 or so may take assignment next week and grab the dividend.
CELG
#SyntheticStock – Another dog….selling the weekly hedge below the core so only going for about what’s needed to get to breakeven. Core is out in July and I currently need 37 cents per week to cover max loss.
Bought to Close CELG MAR 2 2018 97.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .68)
Sold CELG MAR 9 2018 92.0 Calls @ .55
#spycraft Finally learned enough (not…
Finally learned enough (not sure smart would be the correct adjective) to keep some cash on the side for when volatility is higher.
STO the /ES 37 DTE 2480/2900 strangle for 12. Only 4 contracts, the account would handle 8 but see I learned enough to keep some extra on the side to go short or long the future if needed for adjustments or be able to add another week later. Theta is 125 a day on this so hope to hold it for 10 days then roll to next cycle or close for 35-50% profit.
From now on I am taking profits early if they are available. Anything 25-75% would be enough.
AAPL covered call
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
Sold $AAPL March 29th 187.5 call for 1.50
Reinitiating DISH
Replacing the April puts I closed earlier with June puts at lower strikes.
Sold $DISH Jun 15 37.50 puts @ 1.30.
Delta 22. Strike below the Feb 2016 low. You’d have to go back to mid 2013 to see 37.50.
SQ
BTO 21 SEP 18 46/46/44 CALL/PUT/PUT 5.97 with stock at 45.98. Need 0.28 per week to cover so STO 9 MAR 48 CALL 0.67 #syntheticstock
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Mar 9th 2775/2800 call spreads for 6.25.
AZO closing
#Earnings Just like last May, when this stock dipped over 10% on day 1, it is retracing higher on day 2.
BTC $AZO March 2nd 660 put for 1.00. Sold in 660/790 strangles for 4.225 (avg price) on Monday. I’m putting an order in to close the the other put for .50. Calls I will allow to expire.
XBI
#Fuzzy – BTC XBI Mar02’18 95 calls for 0.04, sold for 0.48. Waiting to sell calls for next week. My core position is XBI Jun’18 +91calls/-91puts/+88puts, bought for 4.50. So far have booked 1.26 in net premium on 10 contracts.
BIDU
#SyntheticStock – Rolling the weekly hedge out and up…if the stock continues up to where the overall position is zero deltas I’ll probably book it and look to re-enter on a pullback.
Rolled BIDU MAR 2 2018 247.5 Calls to MAR 16 2018 252.5 Calls @ .60 credit
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign With a second day of weakness I’m looking at call spreads now (after spending Friday and Monday stopping several). I’m offsetting put spreads at the same expiry.
Sold $SPX March 2nd 2775/2800 call spreads for 3.30. Expire this Friday.
WMT
#ShortPuts -Decided I’ve got enough going on so bailing on these with lunch money…
Bought to Close WMT APR 20 2018 85.0 Puts @ .77 (sold for .84)
UVXY
#ShortCalls – I’m booking these and following @Ramie and selling some nearer term UVXY call spreads. I’ll be applying all of the profits to the purchase price of my LEAP SVXY calls until they are zero risk and then after that applying to SVXY losses. This looks like a much better way of cost reduction on the long SVXY calls vs selling calls against them since premium is so weak.
Bought to Close UVXY APR 20 2018 59.0 Call @ .22 (sold for 2.81)
Bought to Close UVXY JUN 15 2018 60.0 Call @ .58 (sold for 3.50)
Closing DISH
I don’t like the way this is trading. The downtrend is continuing and with March expiration still more than 2 weeks off my strikes don’t look safe. I’m taking these positions off for a profit while I still can.
Bought to close:
$DISH Mar 16 42.50 puts @ 1.05. Sold for 1.50 on 10/12 and 1.95 on 10/13.
$DISH Mar 16 40.00 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.30 on 10/13.
CTRP
#SyntheticStock – Earnings still two weeks away so selling the week before (hopefully at a safe strike)…
Bought to Close CTRP MAR 2 2018 48.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .75)
Sold CTRP MAR 9 2018 48.0 Calls @ .26
BKNG call spread
Looks like the morning pop may be slowing. Sold $BKNG Apr 6 (weekly) 2220/2240 bear call spread for 2.55 credit. Strike at 17 delta, about 144 points higher than the current price of the stock (2076.02). I would have sold the spread in the April monthly but there weren’t strikes at 20 point intervals at that level. IVR is 74. I will look to take this off for 50% if the stock pulls back/trades flat and/or IV contracts.
ADSK
#SyntheticStock – This is a weekly call sale that I had rolled down for a 1.24 credit. With the stock reversing (of course) I’m giving some of that back and rolling it back up and out. Earnings next week…
Rolled ADSK MAR 2 2018 111.0 Calls to MAR 9 2018 115.0 Calls @ .96 debit
#spxcampaign Sold to open Mar…
#spxcampaign Sold to open Mar 23rd 2870/2890 BeCS for 1.20 when SPX was at 2754. This condorized the BuPS. I have an order in for the same for the Mar 16th BuPS.
Good Morning
Good Morning
Directional indicators
for those like me that are trying to add a little directional bias and trading to their option selling, Raghee from simpler has posted her charts to TOS and tradestation. I can only get the TOS version to work. Pretty simple charts to follow
http://tos.mx/MUhCu7
Here’s an example. Not as clean as @fibwizard but easy to follow. Red short, green long, blue transition. The dots along the 21 ema show buying or selling strength and the boxes are auto plotting darvas for support and resistance. I use them a little on 15, 60, and 4 hour chart.
Upside Warning denied
#VIXIndicator The clock resets. We need three consecutive closes below 17.76, so Friday is the earliest this may happen. A close above 19.75 tomorrow will mean the Downside Warning is reinstated.
AZO Earnings
#Earnings – Down big but not that far below breakeven. Sneaking in another call sale this week before possibly rolling.
Bought to Close AZO MAR 2 2018 790.0 Call @ .25
Sold AZO MAR 2 2018 665.0 Call @ 3.20
Position is now 660/665 Strangle @ 9.10 for this Friday
TLT
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – Back just in time to make a few trades…
Bought to Close TLT MAR 2 2018 120.0 Calls @ .03 (sold for .44)
Sold TLT MAR 16 2018 119.5 Calls @ .48
SPX rolling
#SPXcampaign In light of the weakness and possible failure of Upside Warning, I stopped nearest put spread and rolled into equal-sized, same date condor. Likely I’ll have to roll one of these sides, but better then waking up tomorrow with a large gap down.
Stopped: $SPX March 16th 2750/2725 put spreads for 8.30. Sold yesterday for 5.80.
#CondorRoll: Sold March 16th 2670/2695/2820/2845 condors for 7.85.
UVXY trades
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY June 55 call for .76. Sold for 11.00 on Feb 6th.
STO UVXY March 16th 16 call for 1.95.
Looking more like no Upside Warning today… going to have to roll some put spreads if we creep closer to 2750.
UVXY call spreads
I’m going to start selling some closer to the money/aggressive UVXY calls to help reduce basis on SVXY. But because of the lower strike prices I’m spreading them for now.
First batch: Sold $UVXY May 18 20/30 call spreads @ 1.20.
SPX
STC 2 Apr 06 2600/2700 BUPS at 12.50 credit (2500.00)
APA July
I’m already short 32.50 puts in July so I’m adding cautiously at a lower strike.
Sold $APA Jul 20 30 put @ 1.30.
Closing Apr GWW short puts
Bought back:
$GWW Apr 20 145 put @ .05 (sold for 2.65 on 10/24)
$GWW Apr 20 150 put @ .10 (sold for 2.90 on 10/19)
$GWW Apr 20 155 put @ .10 (sold for 3.10 on 10/17)
My remaining positions in this stock are all in July–an ITM short 220 call and several short puts below that, offsetting it.
AZO puts
Sold a mini-ladder
$AZO Apr 20 580 put @ 6.20
$AZO Sep 21 500 put @ 10.51
AZO
Our AZO trade not looking good at this time
Bad news for being long SVXY
Bad news for those of us holding and hoping with SVXY
#VXXGame Starting tomorrow, $SVXY will be -0.5x and $UVXY will be +1.5x
http://www.tradingvolatility.net/2018/02/svxy-and-uvxy-to-be-re-purposed-feb-28.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TradingVolatility+%28Trading+Volatility%29
@fibwizard whats your next support…
@fibwizard whats your next support point?
Looking at a #spycraft trade but not sure if I want to put it on today or wait until we find support again.
Covered Calls
#CoveredCalls #CoveredCallCampaign
BTC $BABA March 2nd 202.5 call for .15. Sold for 1.75 on Feb 6th.
Stopped: $AAPL March 16th 180 call for 2.65. The stock breached my strike then immediately offers a nice pullback so I could exit. Sold for 1.70 on Feb 20th.
I will sell new calls on both when we reach new highs.
SPX Trade Sold to open…
SPX Trade Sold to open March 23rd 2630/2610 BuPS @ 1.25 with SPX at 2771
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Stopped: $SPX March 15th 2850/2875 call spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.60 on Feb 15th.
Bought SPX March 7th 2810/2830 call spreads for 3.45. This anticipates an Upside Warning going into effect today, and will profit from the probable strong push higher over the next week.
DUST call
#ContangoETFs Hitting that sell level again…
Sell $DUST Sept 40 call for 3.10.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 29th 2625/2600 put spreads for 1.65.
PCLN now BKNG
Earnings tonight… I didn’t know about the symbol change.
Good Morning
Good Morning
#SVXY For those who got…
#SVXY
For those who got assigned SVXY at adjusted cost below $50, have you considered a trade like this?
-Sell the stock at market price
-Sell leap puts Jan 2020 at your adjusted cost strike, for example 50Put for $36.50
-Use the proceeds to buy 5 Jan 2020 leap calls at 15 for $6.00ea=$30
The rest of cash will go back into your account.
Since we already lost the money, selling this put would not create more loss.
If I understand this correctly, the B/E would occur when SVXY reaches about $26 at expiration or less if before expiration.
Main risk is that SVXY does not reach $26 by Jan 2020
Would something like this work?
SPX Campaign / Long SVXY…
SPX Campaign / Long SVXY Calls / Short Puts AMZN / AZO Earnings Strangle / Close Early SQ Calls /
#spxcampaign
$SPX STO 3/2 2700/2725 BUPS at 3.00 Thank you @jeffcp66
$SPX STO 3/9 2775/2800 BUPS at 17.00 Thank you @jeffcp66
#longcalls
$SVXY BTO 1/17/2020 16 calls at 5.30 Thank you @fuzzballl
#shortputs
$AMZN STO 3/16 1420/1440 BUPS at 2.85
#shortstrangles (Earnings)
$AZO STO 3/2 660/790 at 6.40 Thank you @jeffcp66
Closed Early (partial position due to earnings tomorrow)
$SQ STC 3/16 40 call at 6.85 BTO at 2.80
$SQ STC 3/16 46 call at 3.00 BTO 11/15 at 5.50 (Should have closed them all)
Taking some positions off for…
Taking some positions off for most of the potential profit
Bought to close:
$AAPL Apr 20 130 put @ .09. Sold for 3.60 on 9/22.
$ABC May 18 55 puts @ .10. Sold for 1.10 on 11/2.
$ESRX May 18 47.50 puts @ .20. Sold for 1.40 on 10/16.
$ALK Apr 20 50 puts @ .10. Sold for 1.25 on 11/8.
$NUGT Jun 15 54 calls @ .48. Sold for 2.30-2.60 from 1/17-1/24.
$NUGT Jun 15 49 calls @ .60. Sold for 2.60 on 1/12.
$QCOM Jun 15 40 puts @ .22. Sold for 1.10 on 10/31.
$QRVO May 18 55 puts @ .25. Sold for 1.50-2.10 from 12/4-12/16.
$UVXY Mar 2 26 calls @ .07. Sold for .35-1.18 from 2/1-2/5.
$UVXY Mar 2 20 calls @ .13. Sold for .66-1.10 from 1/29-1/30.
Another reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX March 23rd 2860/2885 call spreads for 3.10. Sold for 1.75 last Wednesday.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 16th 2750/2725 put spreads for 5.80.
Signs are pointing to an Upside Warning tomorrow afternoon, but can’t be certain until it happens. VIX is not dropping much today.
$VXX long puts
Closing a profitable position in 3/9 and opening a new one in 3/16.
Sold to close $VXX Mar 9 40 puts @ 2.90. Bought for 1.57 on 2/20.
Bought to open $VXX Mar 16 36 puts @ 1.17.
WDC
BTC April 20, 60 put @ .10 cents, sold @ 1.20
Also, Added to my Bearish Fuzzy trade on TQQQ.
165,P,165C,170 C and the March 2, 155 put For a total cost of 26.00
AZO Earnings
#Earnings -Thanks @Jeff ….I’m in.
Sold AZO MAR 2 2018 660.0/790.0 Strangle @ 6.16
AMZN
#SyntheticStock – With the breakout above 1500 I’m probably safe moving everything up. Rolling everything up 100 points including the disaster put and the front month call sale. This should lead to much better rollability for the ITM weekly call.
Rolled Jun 2019 1250/1250/810 synthetic to Jun 2019 1350/1350/910
And:
Rolled Apr 2018 1240 short call to Apr 2018 1340 short call
Did the entire package for a 3.60 debit easily covered by earlier weekly hedge sales. Will be looking to roll the April call once a little more time bleeds out of it.
#pietrades at the open, sorry…
#pietrades at the open, sorry did not have time to post until now.
BTO NSC this week CC 141 strike at 139.97 on 3 contracts.
BTO MAR next week (hit the wrong button) 138 CC at 137.17 3 contracts.
BTC the SMH this week 103 put at 0.29, sold for 0.89 last week.
STO LNG this week 55.5 puts at 0.45 for 2 contracts in a smaller account
Like that VIX back in contango, down 0.33 and the SVXY up about the same but percentage wise 3.47%. If we can do that every day for a year will break even 🙂
STC 1x SPX Mar 16 2840/2860 2.40
Still have 2x down to almost a 0 Risk on Bal
MU
BTO Mar 23 47.5/47.5/45.5 1.89 #Fuzzy
Un Hedged Earnings Mar 22
SVXY
After calculating over the weekend where this particular account stands my stock basis turned out to be 48.82. These were all synthetic stock positions that were hedged with disaster puts so all said and done the damage wasn’t horrible. I’ve since sold all the stock at 12.90.
After playing with the numbers to go synthetic, it actually works out a little better and less complicated just to buy the calls. This first purchase is equal to the stock size. I’ll add to it on any pullbacks since I’m willing to risk a little more by going double the stock size.
Bought SVXY JAN 17 2020 15.0 Calls @ 5.65
I am planning to try to sell safe calls against these to reduce overall risk. The goal will be for the profit in these to equal the stock loss and at that point decide how much longer to hold. This position is in an IRA and it’s still sitting on one last 80/80/77.5 synthetic that if exercised would lower my cost basis slightly.
I’ve got SVXY in my main account also and was much better hedged. Basis there is 30.00 with one Jan 2019 25 put still outstanding. Planning on a call buy in that account also.
My worst position is a smaller account that was unfortunately “SVXY only”. Had nothing but laddered naked puts in it. Basis there is 97.70. Still holding stock covered by 11.50 short calls. Waiting to see how those play out before adding long calls to that account.
SWKS
BTC May 70 puts @.10, sold @ 1.45
TSLA
#ShortStrangles – Keep rolling into new strangles every week or two until this thing comes back to reality…rolling the put up a little for now for nice credit.
Rolled TSLA MAR 9 2018 315.0 Put to MAR 9 2018 342.5 Put @ 3.40 credit
Position is now Mar 9th 342.5/355.0 Strangle @ 11.65
SPX
#RocketManHedge – Not much fun having these now but in a selloff they’re awesome…killing time for now with safe sales.
Bought to Close SPX MAR 2 2018 2640.0 Put @ .85 (sold for 11.40)
Sold SPX MAR 7 2018 2700.0 Put @ 7.75
OLED
#ShortStrangles – Rolled puts out and down after earnings. Selling calls against those now…
Sold OLED MAR 16 2018 140.0 Calls @ 2.10
Position is now 143/140 inverted @ 6.55
SPX reverse roll
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX 2845/2870 call spreads for 2.95. Sold Friday for 1.55.
#ReverseRoll Sold March 9th 2725/2700 put spreads for 4.05.
Rolling NFLX strangle
Rolled 3/16 260/290 strangle up 5 points and out 1 week to 3/23 265/295 strangle for .20 credit.
Morning all
$SPX #spxcampaign Sold to open Mar 16th 2615/2595 (Monthly) for 1.00.
AZO earnings
#Earnings Sold $AZO March 2nd 660/790 strangle for 3.95. Biggest UP move: 5.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.8%, Average move: 2.5%. My strikes are +7.2% and -8.7% OTM.
This is a 1-lot. I plan to sell another toward day’s end.
The -11% down move is an outlier from last May. It bounced from there and ended the week down only 6%, and then sunk to new lows a couple weeks later.
XOM
Rolled #Hedge Mar 2 77 to Mar 9 81 1.01 Debit More room to move
#volatility #shortcalls Sell March 16…
Sell March 16 UVXY $10 call for $3.95, presently $13.93
BABA Fuzzy
Rolled March 9, 195 calls to April 20, 200 calls for a credit od 2.60
chasing puts
#SPXcampaign Determined to sell puts at the open, but I kept having to raise my strikes… this is the bullish action we can expect after a downside warning is cancelled.
Sold $SPX March 29th 2610/2585 put spreads for 1.50. (March 30th is Good Friday and markets will be closed, so final expiration for that week is Thursday the 29th).
Options Bistro 