$NFLX STC 6/22/ 350/355 BUCS at 4.83 BTO yesterday at 4.05 Thank you MamaCash
$FB STC 1/18/2019 175 call @ 30.42 and BTO 1/18/2019 190 call at 20.42
$OLED Jun 15 101 puts down 1 strike and out 1 week to Jun 22 100 puts for .54 credit
Bought to Close RH JUN 15 2018 120.0/122.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.90
Jade Lizard call side. Getting filled on this instead of taking max loss adds a dime to the bottom line. Max profit now .22 instead of .12.
One of two to go so not sure if it’ll get hit or not…should buy a case of my cheap beer!
I bot an unbalanced diagonal on CRM a couple days ago for a longer hold but it hit a profit decision point today so decided to TTMAR. It triggered a daily squeeze 8 days ago and extrinsic on the short calls was all but gone. Nice problem to have.
Bot CRM Jul18 130c (5), Sold Jun22 135c (3) @ 27.08. Sold @ 35.83.
BTC $SRCL Aug 17 50 puts @ .19. Sold for 1.25 on 2/22.
BTO Jun22 1682.5/1692.5 (1) @ 7.83. GTC order to sell at 9.40.
STO Jun22 1692.5/1682.5 (1) @ 2.20. GTC order to buy @ .40
I posted a couple times that I’m trying to embrace volatility analytics more in my opening trades. It’s an area I’ve been aware of, but not fully embraced. Last week’s AMZN trade worked out ok, but in hindsight, I bought higher volatility than I should have on the long leg, and when AMZN had a lull (with dropping vol), it really started to hurt me.
I wanted back into AMZN today, but here’s what I looked at before designing a trade:
1. The IV right now on AMZN is at the 12th percentile for the year, very low
2. The HV right now on AMZN is at the 1st percetile for the year. Uber low
3. The IV/HV ratio is 189% though, meaning that IV is almost double HV(20).
This is the trouble I got into last week, buying when IV was very elevated over HV.
So instead of a diagonal, I’ve decided to do a July 13 Butterfly. I used the square root calculation to define my own expected move for July 13: $92.00 (Square root of DTE/365 * IV * Stock price). That gives me a 1630/1720/1810 fly. But I didn’t like the T+1 line slope on the right side, so I broke the wing to flatten the line.
Bought to open: Jul 13 1630/1720/1800 AMZN call fly @ 36.22 1x2x1. It’s got a 49% probability of profit, max profit is $5350, max loss $3622. I usually target about a 15% profit on these. This is delta neutral at almost zero. Very small negative gamma, 34.60 a day in theta, -123 Vega to play for a vol contraction back to HV.
This will be a smart trade if IV drops back towards HV. BUT HV being at 52 week lows means that IV could be leading HV higher. Either way, it will be a fun experiment….stay tuned.
#SPXcampaign Doesn’t seem we will be pushing much higher this week…
Sold $SPX June 18th 2800/2825 call spreads for 2.05. These expire Monday.
TLRD is down 21%
SLD TLRD Jan18’19 20 PUT 1.75
LABU 92.5 puts rolled to next week 93, 96 for varying credits of 1.5, 1.03, 1.00.
AMAT 50.5 CC rolled to next week for 0.5 credit. Cost basis now 49.06.
AMAT 51 CC rolled to next week for 0.46. Cost basis 52.23, this is the batch that went against us on the earnings trade. Another 4-6 weeks to scratch it.
That’s all for this week, have a good weekend. Sitting on my hands until next Thurs but on vacation and staying around here so if there are opportunities may trade before then. Vacation starts with Imagine Dragons concert on Sat. in Hershey PA!
Have a great week 🙂
#Earnings BTC $RH (1) June 15th 146 call for 7.00. I sold 5 strangles for 1.75 on Monday. I closed the 90 puts for .05 on Tuesday, now I’ve closed my first call. I’ll be out completely by the close tomorrow and then start the roll process, going with strangles to recoup my average exit cost.
BTC $TQQQ June 29th 56 puts for .50. Sold on June 5th for 1.15. Since I sold more puts yesterday I didn’t want to wait for these to get cheaper.
#BearCallSpreads – I usually try to close these at .06 but not waiting until Sep for another 8 cents. Frees up margin to sell aggressively on the next spike.
Bought to Close UVXY SEP 21 2018 30.0/40.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .14 (sold for 1.20)
I’m blanking… how do I load a shared chart into my TOS if I have a “tos.mx” url?
#PieTrades Closed $AMAT June 15th 51.5 call for .09. Sold last Friday for .60.
Looking to sell a June 22nd call today or tomorrow.
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX June 15th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.05. Sold last week for 7.20.
Since this was bumping against 7.oo at the close last night, I tracked it this morning and got out on the up move. With one day until expiration this one can crush me quickly.
When I posted my NFLX supercharger box trade, I was testing to see whether call debit spread or put credit spread would hit profit first. Well, both horses crossed the finish line and the puts won by appx 30 minutes.:-)
Bot NFLX Jun22 352.5/357.5 x2 BuCS @ 3.86. Sold @ 4.70
Sold NFLX Jun22 357.5/352.5 x2 BuPS @ 1.30. Bot back @ .34
The puts not only won the race in terms of time. They also brought in .02 more profit. I’ll be doing more box superchargers and possibly going with more credit spreads than debit spreads.
I sold a narrow 113/114 strangle on 5/23 and I held it through its move down on 5/29 and subsequent bounce back. Today it’s back down again under 112 on Euro weakness so I’m moving the 114 calls down to 111 and going inverted by 2 points. Credit for the roll is 1.30. Total credit received is now 3.44 against a 113/111 inverted strangle. Profit of 1.44 if it finishes between the strikes.
Yesterday I posted a plan for SPY with ex-div tomorrow. The plan involved the assignment of all my #Saf-T SPY shares, then replacing those with short puts for tomorrow expiration….which happen to have the div already priced in, along w/ a little premium.
As it turns out I had about 1000 shares called, but most of my short calls for last night’s expiration expired for full profit.
So I sold tomorrow’s 279 puts to replace the 1000 shares that were called yesterday, at $1.65.
Unless the market goes bonkers tomorrow, this is a guaranteed assignment due to the SPY price action on ex-div day (a $1.10 drop in price is guaranteed).
I have also done the required long put coverage for #Saf-T trades, buying Jul 27 276 puts.
So, for tomorrow: 1. I collect SPY dividend on 2000 shares, $2200 (pay date is actually next friday I think). 2. I collect the put premium on 10 puts $1650. 3. I take assignment of 1000 shares @ 277.35 (adjusted). 4. I can re-commence selling weekly premium on the shares.
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Small adjustment to get the weekly call sales a little more rollable. This does give up some downside protection but preserves the potential gains already in the LEAPS. Rolling LEAPS up to finance a rollup of the weekly calls. You could look at this as closing a winner and resetting but I still consider the same trade until completely closed.
I don’t do this often but it worked great in an AMZN position last year…
Rolled TQQQ JAN 17 2020 55.0 Calls to 60.0 Calls @ 2.50 credit
Rolled TQQQ JUN 22 2018 58.33 Calls to Jun 22 61.5 Calls @ 2.50 debit
Pocketed a little cash since the short calls were smaller size. Goal is to roll them again next week and hopefully out of trouble. Get rid of them eventually and get the full profit out of the LEAPS.
Supercharger closed for target profit in spite of earnings tomorrow. Whew! Bot position in two layers.
Bot ADBE Jun15 237.5/242.5 BuCS x2 @ 3.99. Sold @ 4.70
Bot ADBE Jun15 237.5/242.5 BuCS x2 @ 3.30. Sold @ 4.70