#VIXIndicator We closed with $VIX only 0.10 above the cancelation level of the Downside Warning, which has been in effect since October 5th. If bears are going to show up, they better do it soon.
Daily Archives: Thursday, January 31, 2019
Double Calendar trades
Bought $HON Feb01/Feb08 144 for .85
Bought $MRK Feb01/Feb08 74.5 for .47
Bought $EW Feb01/Feb08 170 for 1.57
#earnings #shortputspread AMZN Sold March…
#earnings #shortputspread AMZN
Sold March 15, 1490/1500 put spread for 1.41
#lizardpies XBI decayed enough I…
XBI decayed enough I rolled it to an 83/83/83.5 jade lizard for 1.59 credit. cb 81.41 if assigned.
DECK condor
#Earnoings #IronCondor Sold to Open $DECK Feb 1st 105/110/145/150 iron condors for .85
AMZN condor
#Earnings #IronCondor Sold to Open $AMZN Feb 1st 1590/1600-1870/1880 iron condors for 2.00.
SPY 21dte
Closed 6 pcs on 3 SPY 21dte ICs @ .05. Sold for .20 each. Profit $90. Hopefully the turtle wins the race because I am the turtle.
STO replacement pcs at 16 delta.
#spycraft
#earnings #shortstrangles DECK Sold March…
#earnings #shortstrangles DECK
Sold March 15, 100/150 strangle for 2.12, stock is at 126.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Feb 1st 2630/2650-2745/2765 iron condors for 1.00. (IV 15.35%; SPX 2703)
FB Roll
This seems like a stretch but I will watch closely
#rolling
$FB BTC 2/1 152.50 call and STO 2/15 165 call at 9.70 debit but would gain 12.50 if called away.
AMAT LABU SMH SOXL TNA TQQQ URI UVXY XBI
#LongCalls #CoveredCalls #LEAPS #ShortPuts – Been a slow couple weeks with the rally and being busy at work. Pretty much all hands on deck to keep things going with this crazy weather! Rolling some covered calls and ratio’d short calls against LEAPS and booking a couple winners for safety. Haven’t been adding anything new…just working with what I’ve got and trying to streamline things a little and be better about adding anything.
AMAT: Ratio’d and rolling just a week to stay prior to earnings.
Rolled AMAT FEB 1 2019 36.0 Calls to FEB 8 2019 36.0 Calls @ .10 credit
LABU: One contract DITM roll below basis…my least favorite position right now but can roll as long as needed.
Rolled LABU FEB 15 2019 35.0 Call JUN 21 2019 40.0 Call @ .01 credit
SMH: Ratio’d roll. Trying to stay as short term as possible.
Rolled SMH FEB 8 2019 91.0 Calls to FEB 22 2019 91.5 Calls @ .17 credit
SOXL: This was ITM not long ago so booking it. Sell again on next pullback.
Bought to Close SOXL FEB 15 2019 75.0 Put at .55 (sold for 3.50)
TNA: Big rally so rolling ratio’d and covered.
Rolled TNA FEB 8 2019 48.5 Calls to FEB 22 2019 49.0 Calls @ even (LEAPS position)
Rolled TNA FEB 1 2019 50.0 Calls to MAR 15 2019 52.0 Calls @ .20 credit (covered)
TQQQ: Added to LEAPS a few days ago so this is ratio’d now.
Rolled TQQQ FEB 8 2019 40.5 Calls to FEB 22 2019 41.0 Calls @ .06 credit
Rolled TQQQ FEB 15 2019 40.0 Call to MAR 15 2019 41.0 Call @ .20 credit (covered)
URI: Book it!
Bought to Close URI FEB 15 2019 105.0 Put @ .20 (sold for 2.30)
UVXY: Rolling short ratio’d puts down. Long LEAP puts working great. This works as a nice hedge on volatility spikes.
Rolled UVXY FEB 15 2019 70.0 Puts to MAR 15 2019 68.0 Puts @ .10 credit
XBI: Ratio’d roll.
Rolled XBI FEB 1 2019 78.0 Calls to FEB 22 2019 79.0 Calls @ .06 credit.
Obviously if I’d seen the Powell capitulation coming I’d not have sold any covered calls. Rolling working fine but capping upside (but giving a nice hedge also). These are all long term positions so working fine. Ratio’d short calls selling below LEAPS is a must. That way the rolls can be gradual since small to no upside risk.
SPX 1-dte
STO SPX Feb1 IC 2650/2655/2740/2745 put/call @.50 x6
BTC early for .10. With the VIX drop at the open, couldn’t resist the quick win.:-)
Profit $240
#spx1-dte
DECK earnings analysis
#Earnings $DECK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +6.18%
July 26, 2018 AC -6.87%
May 24, 2018 AC +3.54%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +7.30%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +3.32%
July 27, 2017 AC +1.59%
May 25, 2017 AC +18.80% Biggest UP
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -16.06% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +7.11%
July 28, 2016 AC +4.06%
May 26, 2016 AC +7.99%
Feb. 4, 2016 AC -1.96%
Avg (+ or -) 7.07%
Bias 2.92%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 125.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 112.87 to 138.13
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 116.63 to 134.37
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.8%): 101.91 to 149.09
Open for requests on other symbols.
#optionsexpiration, adjutements, rolls, new trades…
#optionsexpiration, adjustments, rolls, new trades
#lizardpies
XBI 78/82/8.25 should expire tomorrow for 1.26 profit per contract
AMAT BTC the 39 puts for 0.29 that expire tomorrow. Sold for 0.71 last week. Tradestation so can’t trade until tomorrow. I think I will replace it with a #pietrades 108 CC on IBB currently for around 106.89. Obviously that will be different tomorrow.
FAS STO 56 cc for 54.77 expires in 8 DTE
TQQQ batch 1 50 cc rolled out 22 DTE to 51 CC for 0.26 credit. Cb now 57.04 and will have to stay ahead of the rolls.
TQQQ batch 2 50 cc rolled out 36 dTE 51 cc for 0.55 credit. Cb 57.10 and same as above.
#fuzzy
LNG 50/60 8 DTE rolled out to 22 DTE for 0.3 credit. Cb now 13.26
All the others were updated and expire next 1-2 weeks.
Back to even from the start of the October volatility. Now keep working on getting back to even from SVXY losses. Expect at least another 12-24 months unless everything goes perfectly, hahahaha, yeah that would happen 🙂
Something I noticed about #fuzzy over the last 3-4 months. As long as you keep rolling and generating cash they seem to withstand market volatility better than many other trades. In a few small accounts, I generated almost 50% of the value of the account in cash over that time even though the paper value was steadily declining. Have to agree with @fuzzballl, they are flexible. However, going forward I think I will take profit and then reset as we discussed earlier. I think it would make management easier and also lock in profits and also allow you to move the strikes more effectively as the market moves.
Double Calendar Candidates
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar These stocks all have fairly muted historical moves but decent IV elevation for earnings: $CI, $CVX, $HON, $MRK. Also, $EW was my biggest winner in this strategy last quarter. It opened nearly flat and allowed for perfect exit. Then the stock dropped 5%. So its moves are a bit large for a calendar but it worked out, so I may try again.
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Feb. 2, 2016 AC +8.33%
Avg (+ or -) 6.81%
Bias -1.98%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 161.14 to 178.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 158.42 to 181.58
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 140.95 to 199.05
Open for requests on other symbols.
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Jan. 28, 2016 AC -7.60%
Avg (+ or -) 4.82%
Bias 0.39%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1639.50 to 1824.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1648.52 to 1815.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1503.20 to 1960.80
Open for requests on other symbols.
TNDM Short Puts / COST BUPS
#shortputs
$TNDM STO 2/15 43 puts at 1.65
#bullputspreads
$COST STO 2/15 207.50/212.50 at 2.20 Earnings scheduled for 3/6
NVDA
#In-Out 142/144 Calls Feb8 $1.05
UPS
#fuzzy Feb 6 -160/159Put +160 Call $1.60
EXAS Short Puts / Close T Short Puts / Roll PVTLCalls / Buy AMZN Calls
#shortputs
$EXAS STO 2/8 85 put @ 1.05
$T BTC 2/15 29 put at .20 STO 1/3 at 1.20
#rolling
$PVTL BTC 2/15 18 call and STO 3/15 19 call for .40 added credit. Covered
#longcalls
$AMZN BTO 2/1 1695 calls at 44
SPX 1-dte defense
Cut risk to zero and made a small profit my SPX Jan31 2710/2715 ccs by buying back the three 2710 calls in the spread I STO near the close yesterday. Position is now a bullish backratio.
Ended up making $430 on this 6 lot trade.
#coveredcallcampaign AAPL Sold Feb. 15,…
#coveredcallcampaign AAPL
Sold Feb. 15, 175 call for .91, cost basis of assigned shares is 173.50
#earnings X Yesterday sold March…
Yesterday sold March 15, 22 straddle for 3.11, bought today for 2.64
SPX 1-dte closed
#SPX1dte Closed both shorts for .05 each. Looks good to expire but this clears needed margin from smaller accounts. $SPX Jan 31st 2615/2635/2735/2755 condors sold yesterday for 1.00
TRADES:
SFIX BTO STOCK 23.12 Day trade
AMD BTO STOCK @24.27 Day trade
#earnings MSFT Yesterday sold March…
#earnings MSFT
Yesterday sold March 15, 95/115 strangle for 1.89, bought today for 1.06, finally an earnings trade behaved appropriately. Now for NOW…
NOW
#bearcallspreads
STO Feb 1 225/230 BeCS for 1.75
Trying to salvage the iron condor that was totally busted by the extreme move this morning.
NFLX
STC on GTC order…FEB 1 325/327.5 BuCS @2.36…BTO 1/18 @ 1.90
#supercharger
SVXY
https://www.bgandg.com/svxy-complaint
Options Bistro 