Minor Upside Warning

#VIXIndicator fired this at the close. Last one we got was on March 13th, and it was good for a 1.75% move up from that day’s close to intraday high 6 days later, before we stalled and pulled back a little.

Have Good WE all

Have Good WE all

PNC up and out

#Earnings I played this one exactly right… slightly bearish lean. Today’s +3.1% day is the highest one-day move up after earnings since January 2013. So, expiring with 3.00 exercise cost, $PNC #IronCondor, sold yesterday for 2.00.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Closed $SPX Apr 15th 2850/2830 put spreads and 2920 short calls for 1.40 total. Sold yesterday for 1.25. Leaving the 2940 long calls. Upside warning being reinstated today (VIX lowest since early October) and traded within expected move, so I’m out. May try to sell another same-day on Monday morning. The one from today is expiring:
SPX Apr 12th 2860/2880-2920/2935, sold for .80 this morning.

MSFT

#fuzzy
Apr 18 120/120/119 C/P/P $1.00
EWZ #supercharger
41/34 Apr 18 Puts $.67
RH #supercharger
117/119 Apr 18 Calls $1.05
FB #supercharger
177.5/180.0 Apr 18 Calls $1.36

Looking for 30-50% Profits on these!!

Econ Calendar for week of 4/15/19

Shortened week with Good Friday holiday.

Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM
Screen Shot 2019-04-12 at 11.14.05 AM

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=15&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

#optionsexpiration #pietrades EOG will call…

#optionsexpiration

#pietrades
EOG will call out today at 97 with cost basis of 96.14
LNG 67 put rolled up to 68 and next week for 0.66 credit. Total credit now 1.22.
TQQQ batch 1 54.5 cc being assigned with cost basis of 56.39 for 1.89 loss. Was a lot worse in Jan.
LNG batch 2 67.5 rolled up to 68 and out to next week for 0.55 credit.
TNA 62.5 put rolled to next week and 65.5 for 0.85 credit

#lizardpies
EXAS is expiring for 0.62 credit per contract. I was trying to close it but the MM are being greedy. The spread on the put is 0-3.90 and they are not moving. I tried to roll/close for 0.2 but no dice. Ok, I will let it expire for full credit and not pay commission.
EXPE 113/130/131 decaying well. 1 more week should be able to close roll at 50%.

Looks like the largest theta decay on some of these OTM strangles/jade lizards occurs from 28 to 14 days. For instance the 113 put on EXPE is going for 1.25, 21 DTE 1 and 14 DTE 0.20. I may start looking at these from 21 or 28 days down to 14 days to recycle capital faster.

CVX

STO September 100 puts @1.40

WFC

STO November 40 puts @1.10

GS earnings analysis

#Earnings $GS reports Monday morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Since expiration is not until next Friday, I checked 5-day moves and they are slightly bigger than the one-day moves, but not a huge difference.

Jan. 16, 2019 BO +9.54% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 BO +3.01%
July 17, 2018 BO -0.18%
April 17, 2018 BO -1.64%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -1.86%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO -2.60%
July 18, 2017 BO -2.59%
April 18, 2017 BO -4.71% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO -0.61%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO +2.14%
July 19, 2016 BO -1.17%
April 19, 2016 BO +2.28%

Avg (+ or -) 2.69%
Bias 0.13%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.93 to 217.07
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 201.91 to 213.09
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.5%): 187.70 to 227.30
Based on DOWN max only (-4.7%): 197.73

Open to requests for other symbols.