A TRADE:

MDLZ 5/3/19 STO 50.0/46.5 BuPS @.72

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – New all time low today so buying out in June to sell against. Already paid for with yesterday morning’s sale of the weekly calls. Long 5 for every 1 short so far.

Bought to Open UVXY JUN 21 2019 90.0 Calls @ .18

Still long May 90’s also…

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.

Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%

Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings EBAY Sold May 17,…

#earnings EBAY

Sold May 17, 36/37 strangle for 2.18. It’s actually a straddle but the 36 put gets me closer to the max moves, thanks again Jeff for the data.

EBAY earnings analysis

#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 AC +1.15%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%

Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 0.52%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 36.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.53 to 38.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 34.50 to 39.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 31.67 to 41.83
Based on DOWN max only (-10.8%): 32.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

Closing XBI

Bought to close $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.13 on 4/18.

#earnings EBAY Jeff can you…

#earnings EBAY
Jeff can you show EBAY data? Thanks

#earnings CAT Sold May 17,…

#earnings CAT

Sold May 17, 130/155 strangle for 1.83, right at the 1 day max moves. Thanks Jeff.

SNAP straddle

#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Apr 26th 12 #LongStraddle for 1.95. I need a 16.3% move to reach break-even points. Avg move on the stock has been 19.8%. Intraday Max Move on the day after earnings is an average of 23.3%.

Earnings Trade XLNX

#earnings
$XLNX STO 4/26 128 put at 2.30 Stock at 136.73

War machine

#Earnings Yesterday Lockheed, today Northrup. Next trade will be in Stark Industries.

Bought to open $NOC Apr26/May03 295 #DoubleCalendar for 1.09.

TWTR Stop Hit

#earnings
$TWTR STC 4/26 34 call at 5.80. BTO at 1.96 as part of @jeffcp66‘s Straddle. I’ll let the put side expire. BTO at 1.96.
Thank you for the idea @jeffcp66

NOC earnings analysis

#Earnings I found today’s trades: #DoubleCalender on NOC and #LongStraddle on $SNAP

$NOC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 31, 2019 BO -1.87%
Oct. 24, 2018 BO -6.00%
July 25, 2018 BO -6.53% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.60%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +3.68%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.64%
July 26, 2017 BO -0.07%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -1.68%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +3.88% Biggest UP
July 27, 2016 BO -0.24%
April 27, 2016 BO +1.68%

Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.51%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 294.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 280.91 to 307.09
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 286.19 to 301.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.5%): 274.80 to 313.20
Based on UP max only (+3.9%): 305.41

Open to requests for other symbols.

LABU

#coveredcalls
STO May 17 60 cc @ 1.15 shares at 50.62

Rolling NFLX Calls / Close Early OKTA

#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 4/26 382.5 calls and STO 5/3 385 calls for $2.00 added credit. Stock at 382.40

#bucs
$OKTA STC 5/17 75/90 BUCS at 13.50. BTO on 1/25 for 6.42. Thank you @jsd501 for your spot on analysis.

CAT earnings analysis

#Earnings $CAT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 28, 2019 BO -9.12% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -7.55%
July 30, 2018 BO -1.97%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.20%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +0.61%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +4.98%
July 25, 2017 BO +5.87%
April 25, 2017 BO +7.86% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -1.75%
July 26, 2016 BO +5.15%
April 22, 2016 BO -0.43%

Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.17 to 149.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.27 to 148.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 129.50 to 155.50
Based on UP max only (7.9%): 153.70

Open to requests for other symbols.

ANTM earnings analysis

#Earnings $ANTM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 30, 2019 BO +9.11%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +3.79%
July 25, 2018 BO +0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO +6.15%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO +4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%

Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias 2.72%, strong positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.54 to 263.46
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 240.20 to 259.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 227.23 to 272.78
Based on DOWN max only (-2.9%): 242.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate

#Earnings #LongStraddle strategy has been working well lately. Worked on SNAP last quarter and I’ll probably try again.

$SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over it entire history.

Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01% 22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15% -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78% -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% 47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61% -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08% -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% -21.45%

Avg (+ or -) 19.82%
Bias -2.43%, slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 12.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.08 to 13.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 9.62 to 14.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 6.29 to 17.71
Based on DOWN max only (-21.9%): 9.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

SPX flying

#SPX1dte As soon as I give up on the move I’ve been waiting for, it happens. Now I’m stuck with a 2930 short expiring this Friday. I will be rolling it, but not sure how or when yet.

#earnings #rolling TWTR Yesterday sold…

#earnings #rolling TWTR

Yesterday sold May 17, 30/39 strangle. Following a TastyTrade adjustment, rolled May 17, 30 put to a 39 put for 1.11, giving me a 39 straddle. I’ve taken in about $207 in premium.

TRADES:

YETI BTO STOCK @32.47
YETI STO 4/26/19 32.5 CALLS @.85

#earnings WHR TWTR Yesterday sold…

#earnings WHR TWTR

Yesterday sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, bought this morning for .40. TWTR not cooperating-yet.

BA EWZ SOXL XBI

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Cleaning up a few making room for some earnings trades…

BA: Hoping for a dip on earnings tomorrow to sell again.
Bought to Close BA MAY 24 2019 325.0 Put @ 1.40 (sold for 3.70)

EWZ: Covered Calls
Sold EWZ MAY 17 2019 41.5 Calls @ .94

SOXL: Bought to Close SOXL MAY 17 2019 120.0 Put @.45 (sold for 3.13)

XBI: New starter position
Sold XBI MAY 24 2019 80.0 Put @ 1.25

Closing WHR

Bought to close $WHR 6/21 120 puts @ .80. Sold for 1.80 yesterday pre-earnings.

LMT and TWTR closing

#Earnings Closed $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .95 and 1.00. Bought for .765 yesterday. The gap up is a bit much for a calendar to handle, but these higher priced stocks mean higher priced options and more flexibility to close. I was probably too early, but I have been bitten before by waiting

Closed partial of $TWTR Apr 26th long 34 calls for 4.00, 4.40, and 4.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.64. Looks like it’s doing its usual thing, gap and run, so I’ll wait to close the rest.