A TRADE:

MDLZ 5/3/19 STO 50.0/46.5 BuPS @.72

UVXY

#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – New all time low today so buying out in June to sell against. Already paid for with yesterday morning’s sale of the weekly calls. Long 5 for every 1 short so far.

Bought to Open UVXY JUN 21 2019 90.0 Calls @ .18

Still long May 90’s also…

EW earnings analysis

#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.

Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%

Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings EBAY Sold May 17,…

#earnings EBAY

Sold May 17, 36/37 strangle for 2.18. It’s actually a straddle but the 36 put gets me closer to the max moves, thanks again Jeff for the data.

EBAY earnings analysis

#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 AC +1.15%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%

Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 0.52%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 36.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.53 to 38.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 34.50 to 39.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 31.67 to 41.83
Based on DOWN max only (-10.8%): 32.80

Open to requests for other symbols.

Closing XBI

Bought to close $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.13 on 4/18.

#earnings EBAY Jeff can you…

#earnings EBAY
Jeff can you show EBAY data? Thanks