ROKU UVXY

#ShortPuts #DiagonalBearCallSpreads – A couple little ones…

Bought to Close ROKU APR 26 2019 50.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.35)

Sold UVXY MAY 10 2019 37.5 Calls @ 1.05

Sell Calls NFLX HIIQ WK / Rolling TNDM Puts and Calls / Close Early SPX

#coveredcalls
$NFLX STO 4/26 382.5 calls at 1.75 Stock at 377.37
$HIIQ STO 4/26 30 calls at 1.30 and 1.20. Stock at 24.85. Assigned a bunch of these on put assignment
$WK STO 5/17 55 call at 1.20 Stock at 49.91

Rolling
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 4/26 68.50 puts and STO 5/3 68.50 puts at .80 credits. Earnings 4/30 Have to watch closely.
#shortcalls
$TNDM BTC 4/26 66 calls and STO 5/3 64 calls at .10 debit. Earnings 4/30 These are covered. Stock currently at 56.76.

#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 4/24 2875/2900 BUPS at $4.00. STO 4/16 for 5.50.Thank you @jeffcp66

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte I am tempting the market to do something. I hope it doesn’t.
Sold $SPX Apr 26th 2850/2875/2930/2955 condors for 4.75.

Expiring today: Apr 22nd 2855/2875/2930/2945 condors, sold Thursday for .80

A TRADE:

AMD STO 4/26/19 28.0 ITM PUTS @.50 Also have the short 28.0 CALLS covered.

WHR puts

Sold $WHR Jun 21 120 puts @ 1.80. Earnings after the bell today. Strike is around 1 standard deviation away. If assigned, basis will be 118.20, 15% lower than the current price. Dividend yield at that level would be 4%. More realistically thought, I’m looking for a volatility contraction after tonight’s earnings report and if there’s a move within the expected range, I’ll take profits quickly.

TWTR straddle

#Earnings Bought to Open $TWTR Apr 26th 34 #LongStraddle for 3.64.

Stock has an average move of 12.1%. I need a 10.7% move to hit breakeven points. Only 4 out of the last 12 moves were less than 10%.

#earnings WHR Sold May 17,…

#earnings WHR

Sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, right at the max moves, thanks Jeff.

LMT earnings trade & analysis

#Earnings Bought to Open $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .76 and .77

$LMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.45%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -1.66%
July 24, 2018 BO +1.33%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.16% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2018 BO +1.89%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -2.36%
July 18, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -2.24%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.77%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +7.36% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.04%
April 26, 2016 BO +2.58%

Avg (+ or -) 2.54%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 315.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 302.98 to 327.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 307.01 to 322.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 291.82 to 338.18
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 295.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings TWTR Sold May 17,…

#earnings TWTR
Sold May 17, 30/39 strangle for 1.00, thanks for the data Jeff.

#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB,…

#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB, ARLO

Selling calls (AXL is a covered put), May 17, couple more to get filled.

TRADES:

BTO AMD STOCK @28.13
BTO YETI STOCK @31.20
STO SKX 4/26 30.0 CALLS @.50

TWTR earnings analysis

#Earnings $TWTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

In all cases except the second to last date on the list below, TWTR kept advancing in the same direction after one day after earnings. So for the 5-day totals, add about 1-4% more than the one-day numbers below.

Feb. 7, 2019 BO -9.83%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +15.46%
July 27, 2018 BO -20.54% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.36%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +12.15%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO +18.49% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 BO -14.12%
April 26, 2017 BO +7.91%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO -12.33%
Oct. 27, 2016 BO +0.63%
July 26, 2016 AC -14.52%
April 26, 2016 AC -16.28%

Avg (+ or -) 12.05%
Bias -2.95%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.90 to 38.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (20.5%): 27.02 to 40.98
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 40.29

Open to requests for other symbols.

WHR earnings analysis

#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

There is no significant difference between 1-day moves and 5-day moves.

Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
July 22, 2016 BO +2.67%
April 26, 2016 BO -3.55%

Avg (+ or -) 6.91%
Bias -2.13%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 140.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 129.58 to 150.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 130.33 to 149.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 119.67 to 160.33
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 153.52

Open to requests for other symbols.

LABU

#CoveredCalls

BTC Jun 21 70 CC @ .90. STO Feb 22 70 C @ 2.80 working down assignment @ 60. This is second cc, cost basis about 56. Will wait for next up swing to initiate another cc.