LULU BeCS

BTC LULU 180/190 4/26 BeCS @0.27.

This was some “when in doubt close it out” — it was the call side of an 150/160/180/190 4/26 #ironcondor sold for 1.25 on 4/17. Still have the put side – didn’t get any fills for a BTC order – expecting to hold it through expiration.

FFIV closed

#Earnings Sold to Close $FFIV Apr26/Mar03 165 #DoubleCalendar for 2.10. Bought yesterday for .81 and .82.

Had to pay .02 to close the $MMM 220 put calendar to avoid assignment. Dub Cal bought yesterday for .904

AMZN IB

#Earnings Sold to Open $AMZN Apr 26th 1885/1915/1945 #IronButterfly for 28.15. Risking 1.85 to make hopefully a lot.

#doublecalendar, #longstraddle, #shortstrangles

#fallingknife possibilities HOG NTGR

Both of these down big after earnings

TSLA combo trade.

BTO June 250 call @ 21.57

STO June 200 puts @ 6.06

STO June 270 call @ 10.78

The stock is breaking down on volume and the next major support level is 180

 

#earnings GRUB

Sold May 17, 50/90 strangle for 1.41 stock at 70, thank you for the data Jeff.

#ironcondor TSLA

Sold May 17, 210/215/285/290 for 1.06.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 26th 2875/2895-2950/2970 condors for 1.00. (IV: 9.36%, SPX: 2929)

A TRADE:

IRBT STO 5/3/19 101/98 BuPS @1.35 I think the stock will go up 1 point by next Friday, after being down over 30 points yesterday.

SBUX Dub Cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $SBUX Apr26/May03 77 #DoubleCalendar for .30. Partial fill so far. This is a cheap play, must stay within its average range, or at least drift through it tomorrow. I placed a double-sized because of the low cost.

It is the tightest Bid/Ask I have seen on a double calendar, so very liquid.

Dub cal updates

#Earnings
#EarlyAssignment last night on just one (1) $NOC Apr 26th 295 put, part of my #DoubleCalendar. Sold the long May 2nd put for 16.00, and waited through the dip to sell stock for 280.50, netting 1.50 for a profit of .43. The rest of my position will probably not fare so well, but I’ll probably hold again tonight and may be assigned more. (Dub cal bought Wednesday for 1.07.

$MMM has made its biggest earnings drop in at least 17 years, which is as far back as I have records. Nothing you can do about that…. it was the perfect candidate for this strategy, but even “perfect” is no guarantee. I will likely close put side today and not risk early assignment. (bought yesterday for .91)

$FFIV jumped around the center strike in the morning but I got no fill. Now looking for it to recover. (bought yesterday for .81)

Not seeing any great candidates for dub cals today. Maybe $SBUX. Looking at a low risk #IronButterfly on $AMZN.

SBUX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SBUX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 24, 2019 AC +3.62%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +9.70% Biggest UP
July 26, 2018 AC +1.36%
April 26, 2018 AC -1.71%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC -4.22%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.11%
July 27, 2017 AC -9.24% Biggest DOWN
April 27, 2017 AC -2.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -4.00%
Nov. 3, 2016 AC +1.89%
July 21, 2016 AC +0.52%
April 21, 2016 AC -4.88%

Avg (+ or -) 3.77%
Bias -0.57%, Slight negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 76.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 73.74 to 79.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 73.85 to 79.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.7%): 69.31 to 84.19
Based on DOWN max only (-9.2%): 69.66

Open to requests for other symbols.

GRUB earnings analysis

#Earnings $GRUB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%

Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 70.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 60.14 to 79.86
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 60.47 to 79.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 50.85 to 89.15
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 61.12

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings GRUB SBUX

Jeff, can you show data for GRUB and SBUX? GRUB has high IV. Thank you.

AMZN earnings analysis

#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%

Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 1,910.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,836.26 to 1,983.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1,821.47 to 1,998.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,657.69 to 2,162.31
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,760.83

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings FFIV

Yesterday sold strangle for 1.38 bought this morning for .46.

FFIV

BTC 145/185 strangle @.46 cents. Sold yesterday at 1.35

SPX call spread closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 26th 2930/2955 call spread for 5.25. Condors sold Monday for 4.75. Puts will expire. We’ll just forget that ever happened.

MMM put spread

Sold $MMM 6/21 185/175 bull put spread @ 1.55 with the stock at 196.36

FB call spread

Sold $FB 6/21 205/215 bear call spread @ 2.15. I might be a bit early–watching closely.

MMM

STO September 170 puts @ 2.99