Roll GOOS Calls / Closing NFLX / SPX Campaign

#coveredcalls
$GOOS BTC 4/26 51 calls and STO 5/17 55 calls at .80 debit. Stock at 52.73.

#earnings
$NFLX BTC 4/18 345/355/375/365 at 1.50. STO yesterday at 8.40. Thank you @jeffcp66. I was away from trading this morning and placed orders for the $NFLX trades last night. I know I am not good, but this time lucky.

#shortputs
$NFLX BTC 4/18 340/350 BUPS at .40. STO 3/15 at 2.73
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/330 BUPS at .20. STO 3/15 at 3.81

Above were partly offset by the $NFLX BTO 4/18 370 calls and 350 calls which were closed for 90% losses.

#spxcampaign
$SPX 4/17 2665/2685/2950/2930 Expired. STO at .90. Thank you @jeffcp66

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 18th (weeklys) 2850/2870-2925/2945 condors for .90. (IV 9.42% SPX 2901)

I’m going to close the put side of my monthly spread to avoid gap risk. Hopefully for .10, but may be .15 or .20.

A TRADE:

AMD 5/3/19 STO 28.0 NTM CALLS @1.62 Trading around a stock position.

HON dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $HON Apr18/Apr26 162.5 #DoubleCalendar for .55.

#earnings #longcalls SKX I bought…

#earnings #longcalls SKX
I bought a May 17, 35 call for 2.64. I own 100 shares from getting assigned last September, also short a 24 call (yes 24) with a cost basis of 31 for the position.

SKX strangle

Earnings #LongStrangle
Was planning for a #LongStraddle but since price is between strikes and stock has bullish bias on earnings,

Bought $SKX 35/35.5 strangle for 4.15. Need a 12.5% move in either direction to breakeven. Avg move on stock has been 16.2%.

LABU

STO September 25 puts @ 1.90

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/26/19 34.0 CALLS @.60
YETI STO 4/26/19 31.5 PUTS @1.35
YETI STO 4/26/18 32.5 CALL @1.00

MU Bought to close my…

MU Bought to close my April 18th 44 Calls @ 0.49, originaly sold for .10 when MU hit my stop at 44. I was tempted to ignore my stop but I had to be away this morning so as expected came close to top ticking it. Alas. Hang my head in shame.

A TRADE:

AMD STO 4/28/19 27.0 ITM PUTS @.90

TRADES:

YETI STO 4/28/19 32.0 PUTS @1.60
VFF BTO STOCK 12.09

AXP dub cal

#Earnings Bought to Open $AXP Apr18/Apr26 112 #DoubleCalendar for .48.

Also looking at a Dub Cal for $HON and a #LongStraddle on $SKX

HON earnings analysis

#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10%
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
July 22, 2016 BO -2.57% Biggest DOWN
April 22, 2016 BO -0.65%

Avg (+ or -) 1.54%
Bias 0.82%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 163.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.33 to 167.67
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.49 to 165.51
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 156.84 to 169.16
Based on DOWN max only (-2.6%): 158.81

Open to requests for other symbols.

SKX earnings analysis

#Earnings $SKX reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
April 21, 2016 AC +6.26%

Avg (+ or -) 16.20%
Bias 1.17%, slight positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 35.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.85 to 39.55
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.50 to 40.90
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.61 to 49.79
Based on DOWN max only (-27.0%): 25.68

Open to requests for other symbols.

AXP earnings analysis

#Earnings $AXP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 17, 2019 AC +0.99%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%

Avg (+ or -) 2.99%
Bias 1.71%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 111.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.89 to 115.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 108.17 to 114.83
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.0%): 101.44 to 121.56
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 108.47

Open to requests for other symbols.

#earnings SKX Jeff-do you have…

#earnings SKX
Jeff-do you have SKX data? Thank you

SPX 0-dte

#SPX1dte A little confusing with this being monthly expiration week but Friday a holiday. The monthly options stop trading today at the close and are settled at the open tomorrow. Then the weeklys, that normally settle at Friday’s close, will settle at Thursday’s close. So to get a piece of each series, I sold the monthlys now as a same-day trade, and I’ll sell the weeklys before the close today.

Sold to Open $SPX April 17th (monthlys) 2855/2875-2930/2950 condors for .75. I may look to close today to avoid gap risk. (IV 12.5%, SPX: 2907)

NFLX closed

#Earnings Bought to close $NFLX 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 4.15 and 4.16. Sold yesterday for 8.35. With price at dead center, taking profit and running as NFLX may still move big. Can’t Truss It.

NFLX 1 day trade

Sold $NFLX 4/18 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.40.