Speculative trades

Small accounts, small size, IRAs. Don’t bet the farm on these types of trades.

#pietrades
LABU 5/3 49 put STO for 1.05
LABU 5/3 50 cc for cost basis of 48.30.
TQQQ 5/3 66 cc for cost of 65.03.

Will let call out, assign, or expire.

Hopefully the bottom does not fall out in 3-4 days, if so will roll as long as needed. All of these are 78.4% + annualized or better.

CC AAPL DOVA SFIX FB / Rolling BURL Calls

#coveredcalls
$AAPL STO 5/3 212.50 calls at 1.70
$DOVA STO 5/17 10 calls at .90
$SFIX STO 5/3 28 calls at .30
$FB STO 5/3 195 calls at 1.10
Rolling
$BURL BTC 5/3 165 call and STO 5/10 170 call for 3.40 debit. Stock currently at 171.35.

TRADE:

AMD STC STOCK @27.72 Earnings tomorrow, AMC.

SPX 1-dter

#SPX1dte We get an extra series this week, since the EOM (end-of-month) options expire on Tuesday.

Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 2900/2920-2970/2985 condors for .80. (IV: 8.73%, SPX: 2948)

SPX rolling

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 30th 2950/2970 call spreads for 4.05. Sold condors for 3.80 on Apr 15th. Too close for comfort.

#Rolling Sold SPX May 8th 2865/2890/2985/3010 condors for 4.55. My first 3,000+ strike!

Also, BTC Today’s 2955 calls for .10. Sold in the call spread this morning for .75.

GOOGL condor

#Earnings Sold to Open $GOOGL May 3rd 1210/1220-1340/1350 #IronCondor for 2.15.

Closed SPX 4/29 Early

$SPX BTC 4/29 call side at .50. STO Friday at .90. I’ll let Put side expire. Thank you @jeff

Adding a put spread in SPOT

With the volume drying up, I added a bull put spread to the bear call spread I sold earlier this morning, to create an iron condor. Sold $SPOT 5/17 130/120 BuPS @ 1.50. Position is now 120/130/145/155 iron condor with total premium taken in around 1/3 the width of the strikes (3.23 for both sides). Short put strike at 26 delta.

MCD

Dbl Cal 05/03 05/10 190 – 200 $.63

A TRADE:

IRBT BTO STOCK @102.90 An addition.
IRBT BTO STOCK @103.40 ” ” “

NTES

#ShortPuts – Booking it…earnings the following week also.

Bought to Close NTES MAY 10 2019 250.0 Put @ .18 (sold for 3.80)

REGN SOXL T VIX

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Been a busy couple weeks so finally catching up with some market stuff…

REGN: Stock assigned at 376.60 basis. Earnings next week so trying to sneak in a sale this week. Good timing for once sold right at the open. 🙂

Sold REGN MAY 03 2019 352.5 Call @ 2.45

SOXL: Last week sometime…

Sold SOXL JUN 21 2019 140.0 Put @ 5.40

T: Stock assigned at 31.02 basis…

Sold T MAY 24 2019 31.5 Calls @ .33

VIX: Theotrade style hedge. Selling put spreads to finance buying call spreads…

Sold VIX Jul 14/11 put spreads / Bought VIX Jul 19/25 call spreads @ .12 credit

#earnings THC, STX

Not much IV in the companies reporting tonight and tomorrow morning, but THC and STX are up there. Jeff, do you have data for them? Thank you as always.

A TRADE:

IRBT STO 5/3/19 105.0 CALL @1.29 Covered

A TRADE:

YETI STO 5/3/19 NTM 37.0 CALL @2.24 Will cover if necessary.

#earnings WDC

Sold June 21, 37.50/62.50 strangle for 1.00. Thanks you Jeff for the data.

A TRADE:

IRBT STO 5/3/19 102/98 BuPS @1.32

WDC earnings analysis

#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
April 28, 2016 AC -11.28%

Avg (+ or -) 7.28%
Bias -4.17%, negative bias on earnings.

The FIVE-day outlook is more bearish, with a downside max of -23%.

With stock at 51.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.50 to 55.50
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 47.29 to 54.71
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (18.2%): 41.73 to 60.27
Based on UP max only (7.5%): 54.84

Open to requests for other symbols.

A TRADE:

IRBT BTO STOCK @101.65

SPOT post-earnings

$SPOT did not hold this morning’s post-earnings gap and is now trading down on the day. Sold 5/17 145/155 bear call spread @ 1.73.

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Since I closed today’s call spread on Friday, I moved it up 5-points and sold one again:

Sold $SPX Apr 29th 2955/2965 call spreads for .75.

GOOGL earnings analysis

#Earnings $GOOGL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Feb. 4, 2019 AC +0.91%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -1.79%
July 23, 2018 AC +3.89%
April 23, 2018 AC -4.76%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -5.28% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +4.26% Biggest UP
July 24, 2017 AC -2.93%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.71%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC -1.39%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +0.27%
July 28, 2016 AC +3.32%
April 21, 2016 AC -5.41%

Avg (+ or -) 3.16%
Bias -0.43%, negative bias on earnings.

The FIVE-day outlook is more bearish, with a downside max of -8%.

With stock at 1,275.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,227.78 TO 1,322.22
Based on AVERAGE move over last 4 quarters: 1,234.71 TO 1,315.29
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 4 Q’s (5.4%): 1,206.02 TO 1,343.98
Based on UP max only (4.3%): 1,329.32

Open to requests for other symbols.