#bearcallspreads
$SRPT BTC 7/19 165/175 BECS at .40. STO at 1.45. Put the trade on when stock jumped way up as result of drug trial.
Daily Archives: Tuesday, July 16, 2019
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Premium is low so I went 10-wide, double size:
Sold $SPX 2965/2975-3025/3035 condors for .45, IV 7.57%, SPX 3005
SPX 1 dayer
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 18th (monthlies) 2935/2960-3040/3065 condors for .90. Sold yesterday for 2.45.
CSX earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings Bought $CSX Jul19/Jul26 79.5 #DoubleCalendar for .33 and .34.
$CSX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 16, 2019 AC +4.01%
Jan. 16, 2019 AC -0.44%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -2.06%
July 17, 2018 AC +7.07%
April 17, 2018 AC +7.84% Biggest UP
Jan. 16, 2018 AC -0.75%
Oct. 17, 2017 BO +2.63%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.06% Biggest DOWN
April 19, 2017 AC +5.60%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC -3.17%
Oct. 12, 2016 AC +3.11%
July 13, 2016 AC +2.97%
Avg (+ or -) 3.73%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.63 to 82.37
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 76.54 to 82.46
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.8%): 73.27 to 85.73
Based on DOWN Max only (-5.1%): 75.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
ISRG Earnings (high risk)
#Earnings – Normally don’t enter these until the day of earnings but taking a shot with today’s pullback. Might leg into a #JadeLizard on a bounce. Selling the put side down at the 50ma. Hasn’t been a whole lot to do last week or so. Just letting some earlier sales wind down.
Sold ISRG JUL 19 2019 505.0 Put @ 6.70
#earnings #shortstrangles UAL
Sold Aug. 16, 85/105 for .93, thanks Jeff for the data.
WDC
Hey Ramie, our dreams of getting out of WDC aren’t looking so good today.
A TRADE:
OSTK STO 7/19/19 18.0 CALLS @.85 Trying something new for me anyway, will wait for the stock to get close to 18.85 what I got, in premium, .85, before I cover. An experiment.
UAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAL reports tonight morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
July 19, 2016 BO +0.29%
Avg (+ or -) 5.44%
Bias -0.22%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 93.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.53 to 97.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.94 to 98.06
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 81.77 to 104.23
Based on UP Max only (+8.8%): 101.17
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 