#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 24th 2955/2975-3025/3045 condors for .70, IV 7.48%, SPX 3003.
Daily Archives: Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Off topic….Oshkosh air show
Live cam from Oshkosh. Basically the Sturgis for airplane guys. Sturgis the following week. Retirement goal is a 3 week trip hitting both places…LOL Here’s a live stream….daily airshow begins at 2:30 central.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7r7RrHUWUQ&feature=youtu.be
CMG Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Playing this the same way I played ULTA using the modified #JadeLizard (unbalanced skewed iron condor?) with some downside protection and little to no upside risk.
Sold 1 CMG JUL 26 2019 600/660/720/725 @ 4.91
Playing this to the downside with only 9 cents of upside risk. What do I need? Needing a decent down move below 720 while staying above 660. Spent a little extra for a 600 strike disaster put since you just never know. The expected move (45 points) to the downside would be perfect!
#earnings VFC
Sold Sept. 20, 77.50/95 strangle for 1.70, thanks for the data Jeff
E-dub dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $EW Jul26/Aug02 192.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.25-1.32. Fills have been erratic but I got ‘er done.
DRIP Dec
Some new strikes opened up so I’m getting one on the books. Sold $DRIP Dec 115 call @ 8.50. 115 is now the highest strike.
SNAP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 9 quarters, representing its entire history.
April 23, 2019 AC -6.08%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45%
Avg (+ or -) 18.30%
Bias -2.83%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 14.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 12.36 to 16.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 9 quarters: 11.85 to 17.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 9 Q’s (47.6%): 7.60 to 21.40
Based on DOWN Max only (-21.9%): 11.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
VFC earnings analysis
#Earnings $VFC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 22, 2019 BO -7.64%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +12.39% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -10.71%
July 20, 2018 BO +4.14%
May 4, 2018 BO -2.79%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO -11.07% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2017 BO +5.37%
July 24, 2017 BO +0.39%
April 28, 2017 BO -5.56%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +4.58%
Oct. 24, 2016 BO -2.92%
July 22, 2016 BO -1.26%
Avg (+ or -) 5.74%
Bias -1.26%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 87.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.18 to 91.82
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 82.01 to 91.99
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.4%): 76.22 to 97.78
Based on DOWN Max only (-11.1%): 77.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 23, 2019 AC -1.79%
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
Avg (+ or -) 6.34%
Bias -2.92%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 193.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 183.35 to 202.65
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 180.76 to 205.24
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 160.02 to 225.98
Based on UP Max only (+10.5%): 213.25
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings VFC
Jeff if you get the chance can you look up data on VFC? Thank you
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 24, 2019 AC -4.46%
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
Avg (+ or -) 8.24%
Bias 0.62%, tiny positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 732.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 684.53 to 779.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 671.71 to 792.29
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 553.10 to 910.90
Based on DOWN Max only (-14.6%): 625.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings CAT
Sold Sept. 20, 125/150 strangle for 2.99. I’ve successfully done essentially the same strangle the last 2 earnings announcements.
T Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Finally a little selloff and earnings tomorrow so jumping back in…
Sold T JUL 26 2019 31.5 Puts @ .59
WYNN
#ShortPuts – Just a small one I was playing with prior to earnings…
Bought to Close WYNN JUL 26 2019 126.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.10)
Options Bistro 