They lost .24 per share, vs. .08 loss expected.
Daily Archives: Monday, July 29, 2019
UUP going up
I’m stealing this idea from Options Action. I usually hate their trades but this was a pretty simple one…
Bought to open $UUP Sept 26 calls for .72.
(this is one of those ETFs that trades until 4:15 eastern)
ETF closed at 26.57, so I’m only paying .15 of extrinsic value, on a bet the dollar goes higher after the rate cut.
#earnings GRUB SIRI
GRUB Sold Aug. 16,70/90 strangle for 3.75. Thanks for the data Jeff
SIRI (Serius Radio) bought an Aug. 16, 6 straddle for .55.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 2nd 2935/2960-3070/3095 condors for 2.60.
Risky as this is a big week for news and earnings, but .11/.09 short deltas make me comfortable.
Expiring today: 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors, double-size position sold Friday for .45
GRUB earnings analysis
#Earnings $GRUB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%
Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, very positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.90 to 89.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 68.24 to 89.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 57.39 to 100.61
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 68.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
BYND earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open #JadeLizard with disaster protection, making it a Broken-Wing Iron Condor:
Sold Aug 2nd 230/232.5 call spread AND 175/145 put spread, for 3.87. No upside risk… downside max risk 30.00.
BYND Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – I feel like I’ve gotta play this just for the excitement aspect…LOL. I like @matt0311 ‘s idea which is similar to how I’ve played most of these earnings lizards. Selling call spread at the money and giving the put side room outside the expected move. In this case I’m also adding the junk long put in case this thing absolutely implodes. I’m also short some ITM call spreads so I wouldn’t hate a test of my put here.
Sold BYND AUG 2 2019 140/170/225/227.5 Jade Lizard (skewed iron condor?) @ 3.16
#earnings #tastytradefollow #ironbutterfly PG LLY
PG Sold Sept. 20, 100/115/115/130 for 5.97 thanks for the data Jeff
LLY Sold Sept. 20, 95/120 for 1.04
#earnings GRUB
I know it’s late in the day, I apologize, but Jeff, do you have GRUB data? Thanks
BYND trade
#Earnings I have not traded this one yet. Thinking of Aug 2nd #JadeLizard, sell 180 put, and sell 250/252.5 call spread. Going for 5.45 credit. No upside risk. Thoughts?
PG earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 23, 2019 BO -2.68%
Jan. 23, 2019 BO +4.86%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +8.79% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO +0.84%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.53%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -3.09%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -3.64% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 BO +1.54%
April 26, 2017 BO -2.51%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +3.24%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +3.41%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.04%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.85 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.58 to 120.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.32 to 119.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.8%): 105.67 to 126.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 111.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
ETN earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ETN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO -1.39%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -1.87%
July 31, 2018 BO +3.30%
May 1, 2018 BO -1.55%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO +4.63% Biggest UP
Oct. 31, 2017 BO +0.99%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.52% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +1.28%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO -1.80%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.81%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.10%
Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 81.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.70 to 84.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 78.85 to 83.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.5%): 76.53 to 85.47
Based on UP max only (+4.6%): 84.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
EXAS
STO September 20, 90 puts @ 1.70
TRADES:
GOOS STO 8/2/19 44.5 ITM PUTS @.70 Want to buy the stock cheaper.
OSTK STO 8/2/19 21.5 CALLS .65 NTM
EXAS STO 103/98 BeCS @1.57
ILMN earnings analysis
#Earnings $ILMN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 25, 2019 AC -1.61%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC -4.44%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -7.74% Biggest DOWN
July 30, 2018 AC +12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC +8.09%
Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 302.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 286.76 to 317.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 285.99 to 318.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 257.24 to 346.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 278.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
BYND earnings
#Earnings First quarter earnings were reported on June 6th, resulting in a +39.3% one-day move. That move tonight would create a range of 133.54 to 306.46, based on current price of 220.00.
Expected move into Friday on TOS is about 42.20, (although that could change through out the course of the day).
At current price of 220, that would mean a range from 177.80 to 262.20.
The options market looks to be expecting a decent pullback eventually… for January options, the 180 put and 180 call are about the same price.
NUGT
STO 8/2/2019 $NUGT 34 calls (covered) @1.08.
BYND Any news? Price down…
BYND
Any news? Price down 2.5% PM, they don’t report until market close.
Correction: They report PM, sorry about that.
Options Bistro 