Jeff 8:29 am on Thursday, August 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

INTU earnings analysis

#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 23, 2019 AC +6.70% Biggest UP
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76%
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%
Aug. 23, 2016 AC -3.50%

Avg (+ or -) 3.71%
Bias 1.81%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 275.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 260.65 to 289.35
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.81 to 285.19
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 256.41 to 293.59
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 264.58

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 6:51 am on Thursday, August 22, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortStrangles ( 716 )

#earnings #shortstrangles CRM Sold Sept….

#earnings #shortstrangles CRM
Sold Sept. 20, 125/165 strangle for 1.38. Thank you for the data Jeff.

fuzzballl 11:28 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizards ( 129 )

SPLK Earnings

#Earnings #JadeLizards – Got rid of NVDA earlier today so looking for a replacement…

Sold SPLK AUG 23 2019 122.0/131.0/134.0 Jade Lizard @ 3.31

No upside risk with put sale just inside the expected move but right at the 200ma. Breakeven below that…

Jeff 11:07 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX dte Monday

#SPX1dte. Another condor, licking wound from smashed call spread this week. Sold a few minutes after release of FOMC minutes.

Sold $SPX Aug 26th 2820/2845-2975/3000 condors for 3.15.

thomberg1201 10:22 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: CallButterfly ( 17 ), JadeLizard ( 130 ), tastytradefollow ( 88 )

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN Plagiarizing…

#tastytradefollow QCOM OXY AMZN

Plagiarizing Sept. 20 expirations all 3.
QCOM #jadelizard 69/79/80 for 1.07
OXY #jadelizard 42.50/45/46 for 1.38
AMZN #callbutterfly 1925/1940/1940/1970 for .88

Jeff 9:53 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: BrokenWingButterfly ( 30 ), Earnings ( 3,108 ), IC ( 13 )

SPLK trade

#Earnings. Bought to Open $SPLK 124/130/133 #BrokenWingButterfly for 2.02. Breakeven is down around 125.00, so some room below. No upside risk.

#ic

Jeff 9:38 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%
Aug. 25, 2016 AC -10.10% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias 2.25%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 129.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 118.69 to 139.31
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 118.84 to 139.16
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 105.92 to 152.08
Based on DOWN max only (-10.1%): 115.97

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 9:33 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

CRM earnings analysis (tomorrow)

#Earnings $CRM reports TOMORROW after the bell; by request I’m posting analysis today . Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 2.98%
Bias 1.44%%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.86 to 155.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 143.10 to 151.90
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 132.35 to 162.65
Based on DOWN max only (-4.4%): 141.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 8:30 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: JadeLizards ( 129 )

NVDA

#JadeLizards – Played this over earnings out to September hoping for a down move since all the “expert” talking heads were saying how bad things were going to be. So, of course, stock is up 18 percent since the announcement. 🙂 🙂

Taking my small gain and heading on down the road…

Bought to Close NVDA SEP 20 2019 135.0/150.0/155.0 Jade Lizard @ 4.63 (sold for 6.00)

Lesserweavil 7:28 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019

HD – Lizard Early close

BTC HD 215/217.5 9/20/2019 Call vertical @1.65. Doesn’t look like its getting better, so taking an early out before it goes to max loss (@2.5). Still holding the put side (192.5 strike) for the time being.

thomberg1201 6:44 am on Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing TGT Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing TGT HD

TGT bought Sept. 20 70/82/86.50/87.50 jade lizard/iron condor for 1.07, sold yesterday for 2.48.
HD bought Sept. 20 192.50/210/212.50 jade lizard for 2.30, sold for 2.77, have to keep future short call spreads more narrow in a jade lizard.

thomberg1201 1:04 pm on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

Late Day Trades

#earnings TGT sold jade lizard/iron condor, Sept. 20, 70/82/86.50/87.50 for 2.48
BIDU sold Oct. 18 strangle, 95/130 for 2.32
LLY bought 95/120 strangle for .67, sold July 29 for 1.04, slow moving earnings trade

Jeff 12:55 pm on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

CREE earnings analysis

#Earnings $CREE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 1, 2019 AC +2.17%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +2.04%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.11%
Aug. 14, 2018 AC -7.77%
April 24, 2018 AC -0.27%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC +2.74%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +16.42% Biggest UP
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -3.56%
April 25, 2017 AC -11.07%
Jan. 24, 2017 AC +5.18%
Oct. 18, 2016 AC -11.07%
Aug. 16, 2016 AC -14.91% Biggest DOWN

Avg (+ or -) 6.86%
Bias -1.25%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.27 to 63.73
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.49 to 62.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.4%): 48.89 to 68.11
Based on DOWN max only (-14.9%): 49.78

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 12:48 pm on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

CREE calendar

#Earnings Kind of asleep at the wheel today, got to earnings very late. Buying a $CREE 58.5dub cal – will post details in a moment.

Jeff 12:25 pm on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2840/2850-2945/2955 condors for .55. 10-wide, double sized. IV 14.15%, 2906.

Closed Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads of ra loss at 12.00. Sold for 5.00 last week. Let this run too long, but at least a pullback came today. A weakness in my strategy I must address.

honkhonk81 12:06 pm on Tuesday, August 20, 2019

POINT AND FIGURE CHART:

CSII BROKE A DOUBLE TOP WHEN IT BROKE 50.0, A BUY SIGNAL.
OSTK FORMED AND BROKE DOUBLE TOP TODAY, WHEN IT BROKE 20.0, LIKEWISE A BUY SIGNAL. I don’t like this stock though, and usually bet against it, but I don’t fight the CHARTS. I own some short 20.0 calls.

honkhonk81 11:42 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019

TRADES:

GOOS BTO STOCK @39.22
ADDED CSII @50.26

fuzzballl 11:26 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

LABU

#CoveredCalls – Selling another one pretty aggressively…

Bought to Close LABU AUG 23 2019 44.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 3.45)
Sold LABU SEP 20 2019 42.0 Call @ 2.50

thomberg1201 11:23 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings partial #closing WMT August…

#earnings partial #closing WMT

August 14, sold a Sept. 13 jade lizard with long put protection for 1.63. I closed the puts today for .14, sold for 1.19, leaving the ITM call spread for a few days.

fuzzballl 10:48 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

REGN

#CoveredCalls – Selling very aggressively to try to shake things up a little…

Bought to Close REGN AUG 23 2019 315.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 3.80)
Sold REGN SEP 06 2019 302.5 Call @ 4.90

honkhonk81 9:20 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Added, a little at a…

Added, a little at a time. 2nd buy today.

CSII BTO STOCK @50.24

thomberg1201 9:18 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing BIDU bought 85/125…

#earnings #closing BIDU

bought 85/125 Sept. 20 strangle for .96, sold yesterday for 1.70.

honkhonk81 8:09 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019

TRADES:

CSII BTO STOCK @49.61 Late post
YETI STO 8/30/19 29.0 CALLS @.55

Jeff 7:05 am on Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tags: PerpetualRollingStrangles ( 116 )

UBER strangle

#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Sept 13th 32.5/38 strangles for 1.12

Lesserweavil 1:15 pm on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), IC ( 13 )

SPX Expiring / LULU

Expiring $SPX 8/19/2019 2880/2895/2940/2955 #IC Was STO @1.00.

STO 150/160 $LULU Sept-20-2019 #BuPS @1.59. Earnings on the 29th, stock @178.67. IV 28.94, 160 put is 20 delta.

Jeff 12:09 pm on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 4-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 23rd 2815/2840-2980/3005 condors for 2.90. IV 16.68%, SPX 2926.

honkhonk81 11:01 am on Monday, August 19, 2019

A TRADE:

STNE STO 9/20/19 30.0 PUTS @.90

thomberg1201 10:39 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings BIDU Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings BIDU

Sold Sept. 20, 85/125 strangle for 1.70. Thanks for the data Jeff.

honkhonk81 8:41 am on Monday, August 19, 2019

TRADES:

ARWR BTO STOCK @32.11 Late post.
BYND STO 8/23/19 BeCS 150/160 CALLS @1.40
GGAL BTO STOCK @15.70
AUDC STC STOCK @17.69 Made .49

Jeff 8:03 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

DRIP dropped

#ContangoETFs Bought to close $DROP Sept 20th 175 call for 2.00. Sold for 6.70 last Wednesday. Take a cue from Ramie and closing these far OTM calls when I can to help chip away at the burden of short 115 calls that have gone ITM a few times.

thomberg1201 7:45 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing QCOM July 31,…

#earnings #closing QCOM

July 31, sold a Sept. 20, 65/85 strangle for 1.46, bought today for .78.

thomberg1201 7:36 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

#earnings HD Sold Sept. 20…

#earnings HD

Sold Sept. 20 #jadelizard 192.50/210/212.50 for 2.77. Thanks for the data Jeff.

Jeff 7:17 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

HD earnings analysis

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63% Biggest UP
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%
Aug. 16, 2016 BO -0.60%

Avg (+ or -) 1.09%
Bias -0.44%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 207.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 198.50 to 215.50
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 204.74 to 209.26
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (2.7%): 201.51 to 212.49
Based on UP max only (1.6%): 210.37

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 6:53 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte stopped

#SPX1dte Opened 5 points above stop level, but was able to get out as it faded.
BTC $SPX Aug 19th 2930/2950 for 2.00. Condors sold Friday for 1.15

Jeff 6:50 am on Monday, August 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

BIDU earnings analysis

#Earnings $BIDU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 16, 2019 AC -16.51% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2019 AC -2.70%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.64%
July 31, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC +5.54%
Feb. 13, 2018 AC +4.56%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -8.15%
July 27, 2017 AC +9.45% Biggest UP
April 27, 2017 AC -4.06%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -5.12%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC +2.56%
July 28, 2016 AC -3.64%

Avg (+ or -) 6.14%
Bias -1.85%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 103.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 92.21 to 113.79
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 96.68 to 109.32
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.5%): 85.99 to 120.01
Based on UP max only (+9.5%): 112.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

honkhonk81 6:47 am on Monday, August 19, 2019

TRADES:

STNE STO 9/20/19 35.0 CALLS @1.24
STNE STO 9/20/19 30.0 PUTS @.90

Lesserweavil 6:40 am on Saturday, August 17, 2019

WORK

Expired $WORK Aug 16 40 Call (covered). Was STO on 7/11 @.45.

Jeff 12:26 pm on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: Fed ( 4 )

Econ Calendar for week of 8/19/19

#Fed minutes Wednesday, Jerome Powell speaks Friday

Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=19&month=8&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

thomberg1201 12:24 pm on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing AAPL July 30,…

#earnings #closing AAPL

July 30, sold Sept. 20, 190/225 strangle for 3.64, bought today for 3.10.

Jeff 12:23 pm on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), IronButterfly ( 141 )

TLRY burned out

#Earnings Looked like it might light up on Wednesday, but this is dropping like a stoned.

$TLRY 40.5/44.5/48.5 #IronButterfly, sold for 2.94 on Tuesday, expiring ITM for 4.00 debit, 1.06 loss.

Jeff 12:18 pm on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 19th 2795/2815-2930/2950 condors for 1.15.

Expiring today: Had to watch this all day but looks like I’ll escape with nary a scratch:
Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors, sold yesterday for 1.15

Also closed: Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for .25, sold Wednesday for 2.70.

Getting crushed on a 2900/2925 call spread for Aug 21st… holding for the weekend as I think we still have some more correcting to do.

fuzzballl 11:27 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: JadeLizards ( 129 )

ISRG

#JadeLizards – Still playing with a non-earnings Jade Lizard. Was hoping for a 500 pin today but not looking likely. Rolling the whole thing out a week (put side 5 points lower).

Rolled AUG 16 2019 500.0/500.0/505.0 Jade Lizard to AUG 23 495.0/500.0/5o5.0 @ 4.25 credit (11.95 total now)

fuzzballl 11:18 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

NVDA

#CoveredCalls – Played earnings to the downside but got a bounce instead. Rolling a couple weeks…

Rolled NVDA AUG 16 2019 150.0 Call to SEP 06 2019 152.5 Call @ .75 credit (8.00 total now)

honkhonk81 8:15 am on Friday, August 16, 2019

TRADES:

ARWR STO 9/20/19 32.0 CALLS @1.30 A roll out and up 2 strikes of an ITM covered short call.
STNE STO 9/20/19 34.0 CALLS @1.35 Covered

fuzzballl 7:58 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

SOXL

#ShortPuts – Good day for a bounce on this one…

Rolled SOXL AUG 16 2019 150.0 Put to SEP 20 2019 140.0 Put @ 8.00 credit (10.30 total now)

honkhonk81 7:49 am on Friday, August 16, 2019

TRADES:

STNE BTO STOCK 31.98
ARWR BTC SHORT 30.0 CALLS, and rolling out and up.

Lesserweavil 7:28 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

NVDA

BTC NVDA 130/140 Sept 20 2019 #BUPS @1.00 – was STO 8/12 @2.35. #earnings

Probably a little early, but happy to take a profit.

thomberg1201 7:19 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: Rolling ( 447 )

#rolling WDC Rolled ITM 55…

#rolling WDC

Rolled ITM 55 covered calls from Aug. 16 to Aug. 23 for 1.04.

thomberg1201 7:01 am on Friday, August 16, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing NVDA Bought jade…

#earnings #closing NVDA

Bought jade lizard/iron condor for 4.30, sold for 5.30. Thanks fuzzball for the idea.

Jeff 12:36 pm on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 16th 2750/2770-2900/2920 condors for 1.15, IV 20.82%, SPX 2846

Ramie 11:52 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019

BA put spread

Sold $BA 9/20 310/300 bull put spread @ 2.15

thomberg1201 11:26 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), Rolling ( 447 )

#earnings #rolling ANET pain August…

#earnings #rolling ANET pain
August 1 I sold a jade lizard with protection/margin help, 210/230/270/272.50 for 2.46. ANET was around 270 on August 1, around 215 today. I rolled the 210/230 to Sept. 20, 210/240 for 4.82. If it ever goes up, I’ll add a call spread.

thomberg1201 10:57 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings DE Sold Sept. 20,…

#earnings DE

Sold Sept. 20, 120/165 strangle for 1.65, thanks for the data Jeff.

Jeff 10:42 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

DE earnings analysis

#Earnings $DE reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 17, 2019 BO -7.65% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 15, 2019 BO -2.11%
Nov. 21, 2018 BO +2.42%
Aug. 17, 2018 BO +2.35%
May 18, 2018 BO +5.74%
Feb. 16, 2018 BO +1.57%
Nov. 22, 2017 BO +4.32%
Aug. 18, 2017 BO -5.37%
May 19, 2017 BO +7.30%
Feb. 17, 2017 BO +1.00%
Nov. 23, 2016 BO +11.04%
Aug. 19, 2016 BO +13.49% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 5.36%
Bias 2.84%, Strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.54 to 149.46
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.86 to 150.14
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 123.28 to 161.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 131.60

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 10:12 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

XBI

#ShortPuts – Adding to an existing position. A couple strikes lower for similar premium.

Sold XBI SEP 20 2019 78.0 Put @ 2.00

fuzzballl 10:01 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,200 )

EWW TNA

#CoveredCalls – Assigned early on some EWW and selling against TNA again.

Sold EWW SEP 13 2019 39.5 Calls @ .46

Bought to Close TNA AUG 16 2019 54.0 Call @ .06 (sold for 2.05)
Sold TNA AUG 30 2019 51.5 Call @ 2.18

hcgdavis 8:47 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Rolling just about everything. As…

Rolling just about everything. As I mentioned will not list all my ongoing trades, just list new ones going forward or ones that were listed before I had to drop out.

Tried a directional trade on /ES at the open, lost $700 when my stop was hit.

XBI 82.5 put rolled down to 80 for 9/6 for 0.26 credit. Cb 79.74 if assigned
EOG 85/83.5 #fuzzy rolled out to 9/13 for 0.45 credit. Cb 17.89
LABU 41 puts rolled down to 38 and 9/13 for 0.5, 0.45, 0.55 credits. cb ranges from 37.45-37.55
GILD 65/65 #fuzzy (some of these were on before March injury) rolled for 0.51 credit. Cost basis now 0.53, 3.20, 6.72, and 2.52. A few will be 100% returns and free trades in just a few more rolls.
TQQQ 62.5 rolled down to 60 for 9/13 for 0.67 credit. Cb 59.33

Hope everyone is doing well. I suspect there will be some more rolls before my trades break even or make money.

Jeff 8:47 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 6-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 21st 2900/2925 call spreads for 5.00. This offsets 2725/2700 put side sold yesterday. Call side is more aggressive as I believe we are headed lower over coming days. A fourth Downside Warning fired at yesterday’s close, and I don’t think it was the bottom.

thomberg1201 8:18 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing BABA Bought Sept….

#earnings #closing BABA
Bought Sept. 20, 140/180 strangle for 2.91, sold yesterday for 3.67.

Jeff 7:20 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP
Aug. 11, 2016 AC +5.59%

Avg (+ or -) 8.56%
Bias 2.60%, Positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 150.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 139.23 to 160.77
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 137.16 to 162.84
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 105.30 to 194.70
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 121.88

Open to requests for other symbols.

Lesserweavil 5:57 am on Thursday, August 15, 2019

SPY

~$100k bet that the market will be up 10% by October?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/someones-betting-big-p-500-193135605.html

(wasn’t me…)

thomberg1201 1:02 pm on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

#earnings WMT #jadelizard Sold a…

#earnings WMT
#jadelizard Sold a jade lizard with protection, Sept. 13, 95/102/108/109 for 1.63.

Jeff 12:25 pm on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 7-dte

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 21st 2725/2700 put spreads for 2.70. I’m delaying the call side until we get a bounce.

Ramie 11:31 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019

TLT call spread

Sold $TLT 9/20 147/152 bear call spread @ 1.30. IV rank 99.

thomberg1201 11:26 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: FallingKnife ( 963 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

#fallingknife #shortputs M Sold Sept….

#fallingknife #shortputs M

Sold Sept. 20, 17 put for 1.08. Macy’s is down 2.25, about 11% after earnings.

fuzzballl 11:13 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), IronCondor ( 244 ), JadeLizards ( 129 )

NVDA earnings (sort of)

#JadeLizards – Playing this like an #Earnings trade but going out further for more safety. No upside risk and would get the stock at a 129 basis if it implodes…

Sold NVDA SEP 20 2019 135.0/150.0/155.0 Jade Lizard @ 6.00

#ironcondor

hcgdavis 10:30 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

SQ 8/23 5 puts closed…

SQ 8/23 65 puts closed for 3.95 or 2.72 loss per contract. I was going to convert to a #jadelizard but do not have time and also took the loss to avoid margin issues so I can stay in my other trades.

First losing trade on SQ this year.

Lots of other trades/puts are ITM but they still have good theta decay so will adjust those tomorrow.

Had a few extra minutes for lunch so:
LNG 67.5/67.5 #fuzzy rolled down to 60 for 1.55 debit and cb of 9.30.
EOG 87.5/87.5 #fuzzy expiring this week rolled down to 75/75 for next week for 3.16 debit. Cb now 18.34

jsd501 10:00 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019

T2108

Anyone know where this is down to today?

thomberg1201 9:53 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings BABA Trying again, sold…

#earnings BABA

Trying again, sold Sept. 20, 140/180 strangle for 3.67 with stock at 160.

Jeff 9:44 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: ContangoETFs ( 446 )

DRIP up

#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $DRIP Sep 20th 175 calls for 6.70. This should help ease the burden of carrying short 115 calls ITM.

jsd501 9:30 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019

NVCR

STO September 20, 80 puts at 2.50 with stock trading at 86.50, after seeing the CEO on Jim Cramer last night.Small spec play for me on a cancer treatment.

Jeff 9:19 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

VXX long game

#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.95. First purchase of this symbol for the long put play.

Also, adding to my position on $VXX:
Bought $VXX Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.25 back on Aug 5th,
Bought more for 1.20 today.
Avg price on my whole batch is now 1.40.

Jeff 8:22 am on Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX puts closed

#SPX1dte BTC $SPX May 16th 2775/2750 put spreads for 2.40. This was a thoroughly annoying one. Not only could I have closed it yesterday for probably .20, but I tried to close at the open for under 1.00. Missing my fill, I ended up chasing it down, trying to fill on each bounce, until finally I just had to pull the cord. At least I got the 1.00 profit. I’ll let the calls expire, even through that side traded as high as 8.00 yesterday.

Condors sold Monday for 3.45.