#Earnings $X reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 1, 2019 AC -8.60%
May 3, 2019 BO +17.30% Biggest UP
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +1.44%
Nov. 1, 2018 AC +2.94%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC -10.27%
April 26, 2018 AC -14.13%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.11%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC +7.81%
July 25, 2017 AC +7.20%
April 25, 2017 AC -26.77% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -4.21%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -4.75%
Avg (+ or -) 8.96%
Bias -2.85%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 11.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.60 to 12.40
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 10.47 to 12.53
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (-26.8%): 8.42 to 14.58
Based on UP max only (+17.3%): 13.49
Open to requests for other symbols.