BTC $NVDA 180/190 Dec 20 #BuPS @0.22. Was STO 11.15 @1.65.
STO $TSLA 352.5/362.5 #BeCS @.70 #following @optioniceman
Monthly Archives: December 2019
PTON
#optionsexpiration
OX $PTON 12/6/2019 28 #shortputsPuts – was STO @.40.
Replaced earlier this week with 12/13/2019 32p @.70. PTON @32.63.
RGEN
STO February 85 puts at 2.90
ULTA
BTC December 20, 210 put at .05
A TRADE:
STNE BTO STOCK 38.96 To cover some calls
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 9th 3095/3105-3175/3185 condors for .45. 10-wide, doiuble sized position. IV: 7.01%, SPX 3149.
ULTA call spread
Sold $ULTA 12/20 275/285 bear call spread for 1.75 credit. Stock at 264.02 and it looks like it’s slowing its roll a bit from this morning’s craziness.
SPX stop-loss
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 6th 3145 calls for 2.60. Condors sold yesterday for .80
TRADES:
LK BTO STOCK @29.80 & 29.50
#calendar SPX #tastytradefollow Bought Dec….
#calendar SPX
#tastytradefollow Bought Dec. 31/Jan. 17 3120 put calendar for 14.40
ISRG
BTC $ISRG Dec 20 525/535 #BuPS @.20. Was STO 11/21 @1.49.
Another Downside bust
#VIXIndicator Well, that’s two Downside Warnings in a row that turned out to be only one-day warnings for a brief intraday low, then rocket back to the skies. I’m going to keep tracking them, but include a notice that they have not always been working. Meanwhile, I will research the history to determine if there are any concurrent indicators that can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate warnings.
For 2019, the Warning on 4/5 was good; 8/1 was okay; but 10/2 and 12/2 were head fakes.
UBER strangle
#PerpetualRollingStrangles Sold to Open $UBER Jan 10th 25.5/31.5 strangles for .80
LULU
BTC Dec 20 2018 180/190 #BuPS @0.34. Sold 10/21 as 11.15 185/195 @1.39, rolled down to Dec 20 180/190 @.9. Overall 1.95 gain.
#shortcalls DKS Sold a Jan….
#shortcalls DKS
Sold a Jan. 17, 48 call for 1.00.
#rolling TSLA Rolled Dec. 20…
#rolling TSLA
Rolled Dec. 20 inverted 300/350 strangle to Jan. 3. I Have collected $5,046 in premium. This started as a 210/300 earnings strangle on Oct. 3.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – Had I not gotten bearish this thing would be down 30 instead of up 30…LOL Spending my 5.00 I brought in yesterday on the roll of the covered call and sprinkling in a shorter term short put at the 50ma.
Rolled ULTA DEC 6 2019 230.0 Call to JAN 17 2020 240.0 Call @ 5.00 debit
Sold ULTA DEC 27 2019 242.5 Put @ 2.25
#earnings #closing FIVE Dec. 4,…
MRVL closed
#Earnings . BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 puts for .80. #LongStraddle sold for 1.65 on Tuesday. Closed for 1.00 total.
DRIP dropped
#ContangoETFs BTC $DRIP Dec 20th 115 calls for .80. Sold for 8.60 on July 23rd.
ULTA
STO March 280 covered call at 15.20
November Jobs Report
#Jobs — Blowout numbers
+266,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 187K expected
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1%
U6 unemployment at 6.9%, down by 0.1%
Wages up 0.3%, to 3.1% year over year
Labor force participation 63.2%, down by .01%
October revised up from 128K to 156K
September revised up from 180K to 193K
ULTA Earnings
#CoveredCalls #Earnings – This should almost guarantee blowout earnings. Rolling my covered call down into the money for additional downside protection…
Rolled ULTA DEC 6 2019 240.0 Call to DEC 6 2019 230.0 Call @ 4.91 credit (10.02 total now)
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 3055/3075-3145/3165 condors for .80. IV: 10.10%, SPX 3115.
STNE Rolled Put
#shortputs
$STNE BTC 12/6 40.50 put and STO 12/13 40 put at .20 debit.
BX Covered Calls Rolled
#coveredcalls
$BX BTC 12/13 53.50 calls and STO 12/20 54 calls at .01 credit. Stock currently at 53.52.
$SPX Campaign Call Side Closed
#spxcampaign
BTC 12/9 3180/3205 BECS at .05. STO at .41. Put side still open
Thank you @jeffcp66
SHOP
BTC December 250 puts at .05 and sold the February 250 puts at 3.00
SPX
STO Dec 6 IC 3150/3155 3075/3070 $0.35 cr
SPX Closed
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 12/9 3140/3165 BECS at 1.50 STO at 2.50 on 12/4.
TQQQ Long Leaps Closing Down
#longleaps
$TQQQ BTO 1/17/2020 66.67 calls on 11/12/2018.
Sold calls against and rolled 42 times the last eleven months.
Closed out 60% of position this morning, leaving me with 4 long calls bought at 8.20 and
current price of 11.04. I have stop in at 9.95.
The six closed leaps yielded a 64% gain over the eleven months. 13.32 proceeds per contract versus the 8.20 per contract purchase price.
Thank you @jeffcp66 for the trade and the inspiration to keep rolling. You will forever be given the attribution for this proverb – A Rolling LEAP Can Gather Dough!
#shortcalls CPRI Sold Jan. 17,…
#shortcalls CPRI
Sold Jan. 17, 40 call for 1.14
Take FIVE
#Earnings BTC $FIVE Dec 6th 115 puts for .05. The 115/113 spreads sold for .763 (avg price) yesterday. Holding long 113 puts, expiration lottery ticket.
ULTA earnings analysis
#Earnings $ULTA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 AC -29.55% Biggest DOWN
May 30, 2019 AC +1.50%
March 14, 2019 AC +8.28% Biggest UP
Dec. 6, 2018 AC -13.12%
Aug. 30, 2018 AC +6.37%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.71%
March 15, 2018 AC +7.63%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -4.11%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -9.13%
May 25, 2017 AC +3.19%
March 9, 2017 AC +4.62%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC -1.56%
Avg (+ or -) 7.48%
Bias -2.22%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 242.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 219.79 to 264.21
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 223.90 to 260.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.6%): 170.49 to 313.51
Based on UP max only (+8.3%): 262.04
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Fuzzy VXX Charlie McElligot at…
#Fuzzy VXX
Charlie McElligot at Nomura is issuing a lot of gamma red flag warnings for a vol shock. What the heck…a nice time to dust off a fuzzy in VXX.
Dec 20 Bot 17.5 call
Dec 20 Sold 17.5 put
Dec 20 Bot 15.5 put
Net price: .18 debit
I would guess vol stays steady here due to upcoming tariff increases on Dec 15, so I think not much decay on this–it’s a cheap way to get on some long gamma.
High FIVE
BTC $FIVE 100/110 Dec 06 #BuPS @0.05. STO yesterday @1.75.
Yes, I could have let it expire tomorrow, but I’d rather lock in the gain and get the margin back.
Thanks Jeff for Data!
SIG closed
#Earnings BTC $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 1.75 (1.50 calls, .25 puts). Sold yesterday for 2.86.
ROKU Rolled
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/13 145 calls and STO 12/13 147 calls at 1.47 debit. Stock at 150.58. If called away I would gain .53 on the 1.47 “investment”. I will try the roller coaster a few more times before stock taken away, I think.
SPX closed
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 3120 calls for .20. Condors sold yesterday for .80.
#shortputspread HD Sold Jan. 17,…
Sold Jan. 17, 195/205 for 1.45. I’m count on HD having bottomed after earnings at about 213.
RH Earnings
#IronFlies #Earnings – With over a 20 dollar move expected this has very little if any chance of working. Playing it as a lottery ticket out of boredom. Let’s see a 200 pin on this on Friday. 🙂 🙂
Only filled on one so far…
Sold RH DEC 6 2019 195/200/200/205 Iron Fly @ 4.80
Risk 20 to make 480 (now that’s a lottery ticket!)
SIG alert
#Earnings Sold to Open $SIG Dec 6th 17 #LongStraddle for 2.86. Stock must move over 16.7% to become a loser. Avg move has been 14.57%.
#earnings #jadelizard FIVE Sold Dec….
SHOP put spread
Sold $SHOP 12/20 345/335 bull put spread @ 1.92. Will get out of it if today’s move doesn’t hold.
FIVE earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $FIVE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 28, 2019 AC +6.27%
June 5, 2019 AC -1.00%
March 27, 2019 AC +8.15%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -2.66%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +13.31%
June 6, 2018 AC +21.86% Biggest UP
March 21, 2018 AC +4.20%
Nov. 30, 2017 AC -0.46%
Aug. 30, 2017 AC -3.45% Biggest DOWN
June 1, 2017 AC +0.50%
March 22, 2017 AC +10.80%
Dec. 1, 2016 AC +9.87%
Avg (+ or -) 6.88%
Bias 5.62%, robustly positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 117.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 107.13 to 126.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 108.95 to 125.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (21.9%): 91.42 to 142.58
Based on DOWN max only (-3.5%): 112.96
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
AMRN BTO STOCK @22.68
CLDR BTC 10.5 112/6/19 CALLS Earnings after market today.
SIG earnings analysis
#Earnings $SIG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 5, 2019 BO +26.88% Biggest UP
June 6, 2019 BO -1.23%
April 3, 2019 BO +0.54%
Dec. 6, 2018 BO -18.04%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO +23.84%
June 6, 2018 BO +18.39%
March 14, 2018 BO -20.22%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -30.39% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +16.66%
May 25, 2017 BO -7.75%
March 9, 2017 BO +8.72%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +2.14%
Avg (+ or -) 14.57%
Bias 1.63%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 16.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.80 to 19.20
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 14.10 to 18.90
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (30.4%): 11.49 to 21.51
Based on UP max only (26.9%): 20.94
Open to requests for other symbols.
RH earnings analysis
#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Sept. 10, 2019 AC +5.07%
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%
Avg (+ or -) 18.68%
Bias 5.54%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.93 to 226.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 165.90 to 242.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 112.71 to 295.29
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 151.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
SEDG
BTO, January 17, 90/100 bull call spread at 3.50
MRVL straddle
#Earnings BTC $MRVL Dec 6th 25 calls for .20. #ShortStraddle sold yesterday for 1.65. Will close puts on the rebound.
NUGT Puts Closed
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/6 28 puts at .35. STO at 2.92 on 11/26
SPX 7-dte stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 9th 3025/3000 put spreads for 1.90, at the close. Condors sold yesterday for 1.75. Letting the 3190/3215 call side expire.
#ReverseRoll Sold $SPX Dec 9th 3150/3175 call spreads for 1.60. Believing there is more downside ahead, but will be wary of a big up day, which is always possible in volatile times.
#earnings #closing CRM Earlier today…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 3010/3030-3120/3140 condors for .80, IV: 13.26%, SPX 3086
SEDG
STO February 21, 75 puts at 3.90
TRADES: Back from my hiatus. ;>)
LK STO 12/6/19 30.5 PUTS @.70
CLDR STO 12/6/19 10.5 CALLS @.51
MRVL earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $MRVL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 29, 2019 AC -0.95%
May 30, 2019 AC +0.49%
March 7, 2019 AC -2.55%
Dec. 4, 2018 AC +3.80%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC -0.05%
May 31, 2018 AC +2.92%
March 8, 2018 AC +0.08%
Nov. 28, 2017 AC -4.55% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +7.50%
May 25, 2017 AC +4.30%
March 2, 2017 AC +1.51%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +10.77% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.29%
Bias 1.94%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 25.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 23.29 to 26.71
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 24.18 to 25.82
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.8%): 22.31 to 27.69
Based on DOWN max only (-4.6%): 23.86
Open to requests for other symbols.
TLT call spread
Fading today’s big move in bonds which is starting to lose steam. Sold $TLT 1/17/20 142/147 bear call spread @ 1.44. IV rank is 49.
UVXY
STO, January 17, 30 call at .75, starter position so my next one will be the 35 calls.
SHOP
#ShortPuts – Taking a little risk off early…
Bought to Close SHOP DEC 20 2019 280.0 Put @ .70 (sold for 3.90)
ROKU Rolled – Making Lemonade From Sand ;-)
#coveredcalls
$ROKU BTC 12/6 167.50 calls and STO 12/13 145 calls at $5 added credit. Basis now at 151.50. Stock at 142.40.
Ever will the twain meet.
NUGT Rolled
#coveredcalls
$NUGT BTC 12/6 29 calls and STO 12/13 31 calls at added .20 credit. Stock at 29.43
#shortputs
$NUGT BTC 12/13 36 puts and STO 12/20 351 puts at .65 debit, but would gain $1 if called away. Stock at 29.43
DRIP calls
#ContangoETFs At the highs this morning, Sold $DRIP Jan 17th 150 calls for 4.50.
HD put spread
Sold $HD 1/17 205/195 bull put spread @ 1.89.
#earnings CRM Sold Jan. 17,…
#earnings CRM
Sold Jan. 17, 140/180 strangle for 2.29.
Thanks for the data Jeff
CRM earnings analysis
#Earnings $CRM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Aug. 22, 2019 AC +2.24%
June 4, 2019 AC +5.05%
March 4, 2019 AC -0.96%
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27% Biggest UP
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Avg (+ or -) 2.80%
Bias 1.99%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 160.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 152.37 to 167.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 155.52 to 164.48
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (10.3%): 143.57 to 176.43
Based on DOWN max only (-1.8%): 157.10
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing BBY Nov. 25,…
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXIndicator The $VIX close today was 14.91, which is over 25% higher than Wednesday’s close, triggering a Downside Warning. Based on past behavior, the chance for a further drop in the coming days or weeks is high. That said, the last one (on Oct 2nd) didn’t pan out, with only a slightly lower intraday low the next day, before cruising into record highs after that.
SPX Closed
SPX closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Dec 2nd 3115/3095 put spreads for .25. Sold Friday for .50.
Expiring: Dec 2nd 3165/3185 call spreads, sold Friday for .50
UVXY
#ShortCalls #BearCallSpreads – Stopped out of a few for profits. Looking to add a little higher now…
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 13 2019 20.0 Calls @ .46 (sold for .72)
Bought to Close UVXY DEC 20 2019 25.0/35.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .24 (sold for .86)
UVXY Jan call spread
Sold $UVXY 1/17/20 20/25 bear call spread @ .59
#earnings #closing DE ADSK #shortstrangles…
#earnings #closing DE ADSK
#shortstrangles #doublecalendar
DE Nov. 26, sold a Dec. 20 160/195 strangle for 1.34, bought Nov. 29 for .80
ADSK Nov. 26 bought a Dec. 6/Dec. 13 170 double calendar for .48. Nov. 29 sold for 1.04
Thanks to Jeff for the data
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator The intraday $VIX spike has canceled the Upside Warning, which had been in effect since Oct 16th.
#shortcalls DE Sold Dec. 20,…
#shortcalls DE
Sold Dec. 20, 172.50 call for 1.06
Options Bistro 