This is the last few days of /NQ with the new tool. Getting close to @fibwizard but unfortunately have not had time to trade it and if I do have time will sell options at the pivot points on qqq instead of trading the futures.
Not sure if anyone has seen our headlines lately. Long story short…technical glitch allowed pilots system wide to drop trips in December that normally wouldn’t be allowed. Now we are looking at tons of open flying that nobody seems interested in even after the company offer of double time to pick them up. I believe the company is downplaying the severity of this to preserve holiday bookings…
I could be totally wrong too. I hope so since I’m on call over Christmas and New Year’s…LOL But…if we get a little news story about how maybe everything isn’t as it may seem, I’m going to take a low risk shot at some downside using the @vxxkelly butterfly hedge. Tiny risk for possibly decent reward. I don’t see an implosion but possibly a small pullback so love the idea of trying to do it for a credit.
Have to double check the numbers when the market is open but right now the 49/47/45 or 48/46/44 looks like pretty good risk/reward.
Been a busy few days with market shenanigans for me. I was feeling a little overwhelmed keeping up with all the really great posts here, plus being an active participant at Simpler. Something needed cut…so I decided to take a little sabbatical from Simpler so I can have a tighter focus on things. Trading is not a hobby for me, it’s big responsibility, and I was getting a little too sidetracked with chat room stuff. I track unusual options activity (fund flow) via Trade Alert, and that was getting neglected too. Just putting focus back on that a little more today has already paid off.
Re trades, I usually have over 20 a day, so that’s too much to recap here, I need to find a way to give broader brush strokes with rare episodes of brilliance huh?
Good trades: The RH earnings run up was great, tested out with a very high win rate and the win rate continues (snagged 40% on long calls). Tomorrow is a PIR earnings run up trade with high historical success. The FAS #SyntheticStock diagonal was closed out for over $1400 profit.
Losers: I finally scratched off LRCX for a reset, saw a $14K loss on it, even after many adjustments. It’s my tax loss sale 🙂 I reset LRCX with a #PutRatioSpread, one of my fav setups on a stock that’s been hit hard. I have a new break even of $165. Losses on NDX/SPX #Bitties, but saved thousands in defense.
Active Trades: Got a lot of defense going on an LMT failed squeeze play. Lots of adjustments and layers added to extend range. It will be really satisfying if I can pull some green out! I’m pretty sure I can.
JPM: Opened a @fuzzballl trade on it this morning. Mar 105/105 #Synthetic with Mar 95 protective puts and a Dec 108 short call for very nice premium. The first round of short term premium covers the protective put cost. Other than that doing some #ReversionToTheMean trades on some parabolic stocks that seem to be working out well, quick profits on BePS on little retracements.
Hope everyone is doing great will catch up on posts tonight. Thanks always for the great ideas.
$SPX STO 1/9/2017
2500/2525 BUPS @ 1.45 Thank you @jeffcp66
Closed Early (I think this is better than closing late)
$SPX BTC 12/8 2675/2650 BECS @ 3.00 STO 11/9 for .55. Where is my R/R analysis? Should have waited, but who knows?
$SPX BTC 12/6 2615/2640 BUPS @ 32% profit If waited until end of day it would have been a big loss
#nofun Don’t trade earnings-the spoilsports
Have not had time to look at the market until now. Looks like Traders are just moving money from one index to another.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Jan 5th 2525/2500 put spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2630.
#Markets Another afternoon of weakness.
Unrelated to that, but funny:
The difference between how technical analysis is taught vs. what really happens:
#Earnings – Rode “Jeffretariat” to a pole to pole winner at the AZO derby so saddling him up again for a run in the RH stakes. Can he do it back to back?
Sold RH DEC 8 2017 90.0/120.0 Strangles @ 2.40
#ShortStrangles – Been working this one for awhile as a #PerpetualRollingStrangles trade and had it narrowed down to a Dec monthly short straddle. The price is at the straddle strike today so taking the opportunity to book it for decent profit and re-sell and re-center.
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 15 2017 40.0 Straddles @ 1.93 (sold for 2.72)
Sold EWZ JAN 5 2018 37.0/43.0 Strangles @ .82
BTC December 8, 615/780 strangle @.70 cents, Sold for 4.50 yesterday. Thanks to Jeff for the idea.
#PerpetualRollingStrangles – This is almost a freebie since the sales are near my inverted strikes. Selling 50 ma and above recent highs…
Sold TLT JAN 12 2018 125.0/130.0 Strangles @ 1.35
#SyntheticStock – Selling next week early. Order in to close this week at a penny. Very conservative on these weekly sales now. This particular trade only needs about 12 cents a week to cover max loss. Struggling so far but….synthetic short stock position on NUGT working nicely!
Sold GLD DEC 15 2017 122.0 Calls @ .23
#Earnings Selling strangles in this one, piece by piece. I’ve been fighting with it since last quarter as it has gone parabolic. Payback time. (NOTE: I do not advocate revenge trading, even though I do it)
Sold $RH Dec 8th 120 calls for 1.20
Sold $RH Dec 8th 90 put for 1.30
Sold $RH Dec 15th 85 put for 1.10
#Earnings – Margin hog so taking off for a nice winner. Frees up my earnings firepower for AVGO tomorrow…
Bought to Close AZO DEC 8 2017 625.0/775.0 Strangle @ .91 (sold for 6.20)
I see that COST made a new high today and I am amused at all those so called smart managers on Wall Street that sold the stock all the way down to $150 still have jobs. It just goes to show that some of those smart managers are just not as smart as they claim to be. I am still short puts in January and April and expect them to expire at zero.
#SyntheticStock – Rolling front month back out to 45 days and just before earnings. Could possibly get one more nice roll into earnings week…
Rolled AAPL DEC 22 2017 162.5 Calls to JAN 19 2018 165.0 Calls @ .35 debit.
Debit roll but picking up another 2.15 of upside. Front month premium received now reduced to 2.60