The latest conundrum…

A lot of monkeys lived near a village. One day a merchant came to the village to buy these monkeys! He announced that he will buy the monkeys @ $100 each.

The villagers thought that this man is mad. They thought how can somebody buy stray monkeys at $100 each? Still, some people caught some monkeys and gave them to this merchant and he paid them $100 for each monkey. This news spread like wildfire and people caught monkeys and sold them to the merchant.

After a few days, the merchant announced that he will buy monkeys @$200 each. The lazy villagers also ran around to catch the remaining monkeys! They sold the remaining monkeys @$200 each.

Then the merchant announced that he will buy monkeys @$500 each! The villagers start to lose sleep! … They caught six or seven monkeys, which was all that was left and got $500 each.

The villagers were waiting anxiously for the next announcement. Then the merchant announced that he is going home for a week. And when he returns, he will buy monkeys @$1000 each! He asked his employee to take care of the monkeys he bought. He was alone taking care of all the monkeys in a cage.

The merchant went home. The villagers were very sad as there were no more monkeys left for them to sell at $1000 each. Then the employee told them that he will secretly sell some of the monkeys @$700 each. This news spread like wildfire. Since the merchant now buys monkeys @$1000 each, there is a $300 profit for each monkey.

The next day, villagers made a queue near the monkey cage. The employee sold all the monkeys at $700 each. The rich bought monkeys in big lots. The poor borrowed money from money lenders and also bought monkeys!

The villagers took care of their monkeys & waited for the merchant to return. But nobody came! … Then they ran to the employee but he had already left, too!

The villagers then realized that they have bought the useless stray monkeys @ $700 each and are unable to sell them!

Now you understand how Bitcoin works.

Well with that solved, back from PSP and ready to go to work…LOL

Jan 10 #Fuzzy part 2…

Jan 10 #Fuzzy part 2
It’s not Friday yet? Another crazy day. Already reported a few trades this morning, that seems like days ago. It’s warm enough in Denver to light an afternoon fire on the patio, problem is we’ve had almost zero snow–so I don’t want an errant spark to burn down the adjacent field.

1. SPY update: $4753 YTD, Still have 40 Fuzzies all hedged
2. All the (45, not 40) Q Fuzzies got hedged with Jan 19 162.5 calls @ .85-.86 cr
3. TGT new Fuzzy Feb 70/70/67.5 @2.26 Jan 19 71.5 call @.98
4. IWM 20 new Fuzzy 154/154/151 @2.88 Jan 19 155.5 call -.66 (OI is big on the 155 line for next week)
5. IWM 20 new Fuzzy 155/155/152 @ 2.35 Jan 19 155.5 call -.73
6. CMCSA BIG BIG BIG UOA on this 15 min before the close (that’s when those sneaky hedgies do it) so I very quickly unhedged this to fly free BTC jan 12 40.5c .58

The biotech Fuzzy experiment behaving well today, driving fresh new highs across the board.

RIOT

Scrolling through my watchlists looking for some #Fuzzy candidates. Here’s an interesting one.

Going out to Jan 2019 a 23/23/20 is only 3.55. Max loss 6.55 with 53 weeks to go. With the crazy premiums in this thing you could almost have that risk covered in 5 or 6 weeks. Then…let it ride un-hedged as a freebie. Otherwise, just 12 cents a week to cover a trip to zero…

SIG #FallingKnife Didn’t see this…

SIG #FallingKnife
Didn’t see this was filled earlier.
Sold $SIG 7/20 35 put @ 1.35.

AGN

#SyntheticStock – Nice base being built here and entering a squeeze. Adding small in the only account without biotech exposure.

Sold AGN JAN 18 2019 175.0 Puts @ 18.73
Bought AGN JAN 18 2019 175.0 Calls @ 18.78
Bought AGN JAN 18 2019 170.0 Puts @ 16.57

This gives a net debit of 16.62 for the Jan 2019 position. Add the 5 point max downside and get a max loss possibility of 21.62. Based on that, and the 53 weeks remaining in the trade I only need to average about 41 cents per week in sales to cover the absolute worst case scenario.

So:

Sold AGN JAN 19 2018 180.0 Calls @ .73

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 9th 2660/2635 put spreads for 1.55.

XBI

#Fuzzy

STO XBI Jan19’18 90 calls for 0.54. Sold these against the XBI #Fuzzy I opened yesterday

GE

#Fuzzy – Still no position but getting perky.

Jan 2020 20/20/18 #SyntheticStock only requires 3.5 cents per week to cover core and max loss. Hmmmm…

#shortcallspreads TSLA Sold Feb. 16…

#shortcallspreads TSLA

Sold Feb. 16 375/385 for 1.75, stock at 334

AVGO

#ShortStrangles – Clearing out another strangle. Looking at a possible #Fuzzy on this one if it drops a little more.

Bought to Close AVGO FEB 2 2018 250.0/290.0 Strangle @ 3.15 (sold for 5.00)

STZ

STO July 180 puts @2.15 with stock trading at 219, Drinking alcohol is not going out of style.

 

Well…Gartman is bearish on cryptocurrencies

Firing up Coinbase right now LOL.

$SVXY

Was pretty busy with the day job this morning. Just aren’t getting much for opportunities for entering these trades. Since I’m very low on open #VXXGame positions, followed @optioniceman and @ramie77 making a few trades myself this morning.

STO $SVXY Jan 19 $110 puts @ $0.62
STO $SVXY Jan 26 $95 puts @ $0.60
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $75 puts @ $0.55
STO $SVXY Feb 16 $85 puts @ $1.22

REGN

#SyntheticStock – Has to turn around at some point but doesn’t look like anytime soon. This week’s short calls look safe so selling next week.

Sold REGN JAN 19 2018 380.0 Calls @ 1.80

Initial trade required 90 cents a week to cover everything.

NTES

#ShortStrangles – Not liking the way this one is acting. It might bounce here…or not. Taking a tiny winner.

Bought to Close NTES JAN 26 2018 325.0/400.0 Strangle @ 5.48 (sold for 6.20)

Short Puts FB / SPX Campaign

#shortput
$FB STO 1/26 177.5/185 BUPS @ 1.40 Earnings 1/31
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTO 1/19 2765/2785 BUCS @ 1.90 Thank you @jeffcp66
$SPX STO 2/23 2550/2650 BUPS @ 5.80 Thank you @alsumde

#spxcampaign Cleanup Getting out earlier than usual ;-}
$SPX BTC 1/26 2765/2740 BECS @ 11.50 STO @ 1.90
$SPX BTC 2/2 2775/2750 BECS @ 10 STO @ 1.50
$SPX BTC 1/19 2765/2740 BECS @ 6.50 STO @ 1.50

Jan 10 #fuzzy COST #FuzzyBear…

Jan 10 #fuzzy
COST #FuzzyBear was closed at the low this morning for $1370 net profit
QQQ 45 new QQQ Fuzzies (multiple accounts) Feb 162/162/159 @ between 1.60-1.70 currently unhedged

VXX

#SyntheticShort – With VXX going away I’m closing this short down. No where to roll the short puts and a big volatility spike might not leave time for it to come back down. Turned out pretty good since I had fewer short puts than synthetic short stock. Re-load on next UVXY split…

Sold to Close 13 VXX Jan 2019 50/50/55 synthetics and Bought to Close 9 VXX JAN 18 2019 28.0 Puts

Net gain on each synthetic of 3.85. Not great but worth the margin for sure…

MU

#Fuzzy

BTC MU Jan12’18 45c for 0.06, STO was 0.37. Thanks to @smasty160 and Jim Cramer lol

ISRG

#ShortStrangles – Last time I got involved with this one it was screaming higher but worked out ok. Looks like I’ll be rolling this into an earnings trade. Big roll of short put to try to corral this thing.

Rolled ISRG JAN 12 2018 400.0 Put to JAN 12 2018 425.0 Put @ 8.60 credit

Position is now 425/400 inverted @ 25.95 for Friday.

Anything between the strikes is a small winner…but with all the premium I’ll probably roll to earnings week and see what happens.

#vix https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/is-the-vix-being-gamed-a-sudden-swoon-has-traders-talking-again

#vix
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/is-the-vix-being-gamed-a-sudden-swoon-has-traders-talking-again

#spxcampaign STO SPX 28 FEB…

#spxcampaign
STO SPX 28 FEB 18 2625/2525 BuPS @5.10

#spxcampaign STO SPX 23 FEB…

#spxcampaign
STO SPX 23 FEB 18 2635/2535 BuPS @5.00

#spxcampaign STO SPX 23 FEB…

#spxcampaign
STO SPX 23 FEB 18 2630/2530 BuPS @5.00

WHR June

Sold $WHR Jun 15 130 put @ 1.90

Using the dip, 2

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Jan 22nd 2740/2715 put spreads for 7.50 (wish I’d waited 10 minutes).

#VXXGame Sold to Open $SVXY March 16th 130/110 put spread for 8.05. That cost me 2K in margin as opposed to a naked March 120 put, for which they wanted 12K. I guess that means I’m long the market.

Using the dip

#SPXcampaign Bought to open $SPX Jan 19th (Friday PM) 2765/2785 call spreads for 3.20. Also orders in to sell some put spreads.

#VXXGame Bought to CLOSE $SVXY Jan 19th 125 call for 11.15. Sold for 3.75 on Oct 26th. Looking for roll options.

SVXY March

Sold $SVXY Mar 16 65 put @ 1.20

COST

BTC January 19, 145 put @ .01, sold @ 1.05

GM, China again

GM, China again

Bonds

I am watching the ten year and if we get over 2.60 the next level will be 3%. I think that if we get over 3%, we will be in a bear market in bonds and that is not good for the stock market.

Good morning

Could this be the start of correction?