smasty 1:19 pm on Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Tags: AlligatorFuzzy ( 3 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), VIXIndicator ( 294 )

2 of 3 of 5: Not yet!

Y’all know I’m keenly watching for 1-standard deviation up moves in SPX. We need 3 1SD up moves in a 5-bar window (for historical rally confirmations). We got one on Thursday. Today’s slipped through the fingers, darnit. We got a .933–the rule is it must cross 1.0. Wed and Thur still fall into the 5-bar window.

#AlligatorFuzzy anyone? I have a new #Fuzzy! I believe this is the best one yet. The love-child of regular fuzzy and atomic fuzzy. I will do a full write up on it maybe later tonight. I really think you will find it very compelling.

Sue

#vixindicator

Jeff 6:09 am on Wednesday, April 4, 2018

On your indicator, does it have to be the green part of the green and white bar that exceeds the 1-SD?
- smasty 6:11 am on Wednesday, April 4, 2018
  
  Yes Jeff, the bar must close green (for an up move) and over 1.0 (1 standard dev). I went back to 1987 looking at every crash recovery for a pattern, found that 3 of 5 consecutive bars over 1SD yielded a reliable rally. Without that, post-crash rallies fizzled. The white dot just shows the extreme reading of the day.
  - Jeff 6:15 am on Wednesday, April 4, 2018
    
    Yes, it’s a good signal. A few weeks ago I compared it to the #VIXIndicator. They gave very similar signals… sometimes one gave an earlier (better) signal, sometimes it was the other, but most often they were within a day or two of each other.