#bullputspreads
$NFLX BTC 4/18 310/320 BUPS at .61. STO at 1.70. Prudence reigns. I have several open $NFLX trades.
Daily Archives: Tuesday, April 16, 2019
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Apr 17th 2865/2885-2930/2950 condors for .80. (IV: 8.05%, SPX: 2908)
NFLX
BTO IC Apr 18 375/377.5 325/322.5 $1.13
Following DK with this idea for an Earnings trade.
Closing BA BUCS / AMZN BUPS
#bullcallspreads
$BA STC 4/18 370/400 BUCS at 8.50 BTO pre crashes on 3/12 for 15.00
#bullputspreads
$AMZN STO 4/18 1840/1845 at 1.35
NFLX tight condor
#Earnings Sold to Open $NFLX Apr 18th 345/355-365/375 #IronCondor for 8.35.
Risking 1.65 to make 5.00-7.00. Max win is about 8.35 but that’s only if I wait for expiration on Thursday. I’ll look to close this when (and if) stock price gets close enough to my 10-point center range for a profit.
NFLX often gaps big, but then sometimes will fade for the rest of the day (or two days). This is a smaller position as probability is lower and I don’t want to lose the max on a large position.
Rolling AMZN
#shortcalls
$AMZN BTC 4/18 1850 call and STO 4/26 1870 call at added 24.14 credit per contract. These are covered by 4/26 1760 long calls
A TRADE: Strangled it.
VFF STO 4/18/19 10.0 PUTS @.35 Expires Friday.
A TRADE: A goof, because…
A TRADE: A goof, because I’m bored. Stock is down because Citron said it’s going to a dollar.
VFF STO 4/18/19 11.0 CALLS @.55. 2 Days and 2.5 hours to expiration. ;>) Watching.
IBM dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $IBM Apr18/Apr26 145 #DoubleCalendar for .40. Surprised I was filled below mid price… partial fill, may have to raise bid to fulfill my full position.
This has a 5% average move… tomorrow’s breakevens are showing to be precisely at 5%. So this has an even chance of working, but also an additional day to fade any large move.
A TRADE: Was going to…
A TRADE: Was going to sell the stock, but thought with 2 days to expiration, I’ll try and grab another .45. ;>)
AMD STO 4/18/19 28.0 ATM CALLS @.45 Covered
TRADES:
YETI BTO Several trades avg. @31.67
YETI STO 4/26/18 33.0 CALL @.95 COVERED
YETI STO 3/26/19 33.5 CALL @.85 COVERED
Rolling LABU BURL TNDM
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 4/18 64 call and STO 4/18 58.5 call at 1.00 credit. Stock at 57.33
$BURL BTC 4/18 160 call and STO 4/26 162.50 call at .11 debit. Stock at 161.83
$TNDM BTC 4/18 65 call and STO 4/26 66 call at 1.30 credit. Stock at 62.52
#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April…
#Shorcalls Morning Sold MU April 18th 44 Calls for .10.
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Avg (+ or -) 4.95%
Bias -1.15%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 144.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 136.68 to 151.32
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.87 to 151.13
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 131.24 to 156.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 133.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 8.36%
Bias 1.78%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 354.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 328.02 to 379.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 324.39 to 383.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 286.67 to 421.33
Based on DOWN max only (-13.1%): 307.56
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 