Filled at the bell as the stock took a dive into the close.
Sold $IRBT 9/20 60 puts @ 1.20.
#FallingKnife
Daily Archives: Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Popping in here to post a trades.
$MU #Coveredcalls Sold April 26th 44 calls @ 0.29.
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -0.25%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 260.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 238.89 to 281.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.25 to 275.75
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 217.93 to 302.07
Based on DOWN max only (-8.6%): 237.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Avg (+ or -) 8.40%
Bias 0.45%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 710.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 660.25 to 759.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 650.35 to 769.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 536.48 to 883.52
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 606.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
NOW earnings analysis – straight up?
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
12 quarters straight with all UP moves. (go back 13 quarters for the first negative, -15.6%)
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.19%
Bias 5.19%, ONLY a positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 243.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 227.32 to 258.68
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 230.38 to 255.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 208.83 to 277.17
Based on Smallest UP only (+0.7%): 244.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
MMM earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bidding for $MMM Apr26/May03 220 #DoubleCalendar for .90. No fill yet.
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -2.94%
July 26, 2016 BO -1.09%
April 26, 2016 BO -1.30%
Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias -0.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.48 to 227.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.75 to 226.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 204.97 to 235.03
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 204.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBNT STO 5/19 UBNT 135/145…
UBNT
STO 5/19 UBNT 135/145 BuPS @1.50
Stock trading at 169.71. 5/19 145 Puts are ~20 delta. Earnings on 5/9, before expiry.
FFIV dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $FFIV Apr26/May03 165 #DoubleCalendar for .80. Only partial fill so far.
Also going for one on $MMM
Earnings chart updates
$INTC is tomorrow after the bell
$WYNN is still uncertain, currently predicted 4/30 after bell
#earnings FFIV Sold May 17,…
#earnings FFIV
Sold May 17, 145/185 strangle for 1.38, stock at 165, thanks as always Jeff.
DHI earnings analysis
#Earnings $DHI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 25, 2019 BO -2.61%
Nov. 8, 2018 BO -8.96% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +10.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +1.20%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.07%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +1.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.91%
April 20, 2017 BO -2.50%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +6.61%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -5.44%
July 21, 2016 BO -0.34%
April 21, 2016 BO +1.14%
Avg (+ or -) 3.66%
Bias 0.03%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 44.24 to 48.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 44.80 to 48.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 41.45 to 51.55
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 42.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
FFIV earnings analysis
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias -0.23%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.35 to 174.65
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.08 to 172.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 149.21 to 180.79
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 151.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings FFIV DHI Jeff-can you…
#earnings FFIV DHI
Jeff-can you show data for FFIV and DHI? Thank you
IRBT
STO June 21, 85 put @ 1.55
STO July 19, 80 put @ 1.60
OK, gave myself a little more room.
IRBT STO 4/26/19 103.0 CALL @2.05 Either I make $2 @expiration this Friday, or give myself $2 cushion in case the stock goes down further.
YETI STO 5/3/19 34.0 CALL @2.05 Naked
Took the plunge, 1/10th position.
IRBT BTO STOCK @103.10 Probably a day trade, I’ll swing it if it’s working.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Avg (+ or -) 5.62%
Bias 0.78%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 170.98 to 193.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 171.77 to 192.34
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 147.49 to 216.51
Based on UP max only (10.8%): 201.67
Open to requests for other symbols.
First post – been reading…
ISRG
First post – been reading here a while. Appreciate what I’ve learned, and hope I can learn some more.
Thanks for the invite Jeff!
ISRG BTC 4/26 170/180 BuPS @0.12. Had opened this on 4/22 for 1.63 after ISRG dipped post earnings.
A TRADE:
AMD STO 4/26/19 29.0 CALLS @.47 Will cover if necessary.
IRBT STO 4/26/19 105/102 BuPS @1.36 FALLING KNIFE
#earnings #closing CAT EBAY sold…
NUGT closing
#ContangoETFs The $NUGT positions I sold in first quarter are starting to close:
BTC $NUGT June 30 call for .15 on Apr 15. Sold for 1.35 on Feb 19th
BTC $NUGT Sept 35 call for .20 yesterday. Sold for 2.06 on Jan 31st.
Looks like $DUST may be coming in to play soon.
ISRG
STO June 450 puts @ 5.10
EW closed
#Earnings Sold to close $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 2.25. Bought yesterday for 1.03. Third quarter in a row this was the best symbol for this strategy. Unfortunately I only got a partial fill yesterday.
IRBT puts
Sold $IRBT 5/17 95 puts @ 1.65. Delta 20.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX1dte Since I plumb forgot to sell this yesterday, selling it this morning:
Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2890/2910-2945/2960 condors for .95. Expires today. (IV: 8.02%, SPX 2932)
Sometimes because volatility is higher in the morning, and because morning gaps can be accounted for, this sometimes can be a better approach that selling at the previous day’s close.
SNAPped shut
#Earnings Sold to close $SNAP Apr26 12 #LongStraddle for .75. Bought for 1.95 yesterday. If I don’t get the gap I try to sell quickly while volatility is still high, limiting the loss.
Options Bistro 