Jeff, can you show data for GRUB and SBUX? GRUB has high IV. Thank you.
Monthly Archives: April 2019
AMZN earnings analysis
#Earnings $AMZN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -5.38%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -7.81% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC +0.51%
April 26, 2018 AC +3.60%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +2.87%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +13.21% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 AC -2.48%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.71%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -3.54%
Oct. 27, 2016 AC -5.13%
July 28, 2016 AC +0.82%
April 28, 2016 AC +9.56%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias 0.58%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 1,910.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 1,836.26 to 1,983.74
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 1,821.47 to 1,998.53
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.2%): 1,657.69 to 2,162.31
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 1,760.83
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings FFIV
Yesterday sold strangle for 1.38 bought this morning for .46.
FFIV
BTC 145/185 strangle @.46 cents. Sold yesterday at 1.35
SPX call spread closed
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Apr 26th 2930/2955 call spread for 5.25. Condors sold Monday for 4.75. Puts will expire. We’ll just forget that ever happened.
MMM put spread
Sold $MMM 6/21 185/175 bull put spread @ 1.55 with the stock at 196.36
FB call spread
Sold $FB 6/21 205/215 bear call spread @ 2.15. I might be a bit early–watching closely.
MMM
STO September 170 puts @ 2.99
IRBT Sep
Filled at the bell as the stock took a dive into the close.
Sold $IRBT 9/20 60 puts @ 1.20.
#FallingKnife
Popping in here to post a trades.
$MU #Coveredcalls Sold April 26th 44 calls @ 0.29.
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings $TSLA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -0.56%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +9.13%
Aug. 1, 2018 AC +16.18% Biggest UP
May 2, 2018 AC -5.54%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -8.62% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -6.79%
Aug. 2, 2017 AC +6.50%
May 3, 2017 AC -5.00%
Feb. 22, 2017 AC -6.40%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +0.87%
Aug. 3, 2016 AC +2.13%
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -0.25%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 260.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 238.89 to 281.11
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 244.25 to 275.75
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.2%): 217.93 to 302.07
Based on DOWN max only (-8.6%): 237.59
Open to requests for other symbols.
CMG earnings analysis
#Earnings $CMG reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 6, 2019 AC +11.35%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC +3.42%
July 26, 2018 AC +5.71%
April 25, 2018 AC +24.44% Biggest UP
Feb. 6, 2018 AC -10.55%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -14.58% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2017 AC -2.30%
April 25, 2017 AC +2.38%
Feb. 2, 2017 AC -4.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -9.28%
July 21, 2016 AC +5.83%
April 26, 2016 AC -6.43%
Avg (+ or -) 8.40%
Bias 0.45%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 710.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 660.25 to 759.75
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 650.35 to 769.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (24.4%): 536.48 to 883.52
Based on DOWN max only (-14.6%): 606.48
Open to requests for other symbols.
NOW earnings analysis – straight up?
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
12 quarters straight with all UP moves. (go back 13 quarters for the first negative, -15.6%)
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
April 20, 2016 AC +14.06% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 5.19%
Bias 5.19%, ONLY a positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 243.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 227.32 to 258.68
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 230.38 to 255.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 208.83 to 277.17
Based on Smallest UP only (+0.7%): 244.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
MMM earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings $MMM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bidding for $MMM Apr26/May03 220 #DoubleCalendar for .90. No fill yet.
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.94%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -4.37%
July 24, 2018 BO +0.92%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.83% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +1.88%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +5.91% Biggest UP
July 25, 2017 BO -5.05%
April 25, 2017 BO +0.46%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.42%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -2.94%
July 26, 2016 BO -1.09%
April 26, 2016 BO -1.30%
Avg (+ or -) 2.84%
Bias -0.99%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 220.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 212.48 to 227.52
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 213.75 to 226.25
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 204.97 to 235.03
Based on DOWN max only (-5.9%): 204.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
UBNT STO 5/19 UBNT 135/145…
UBNT
STO 5/19 UBNT 135/145 BuPS @1.50
Stock trading at 169.71. 5/19 145 Puts are ~20 delta. Earnings on 5/9, before expiry.
FFIV dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $FFIV Apr26/May03 165 #DoubleCalendar for .80. Only partial fill so far.
Also going for one on $MMM
Earnings chart updates
$INTC is tomorrow after the bell
$WYNN is still uncertain, currently predicted 4/30 after bell
#earnings FFIV Sold May 17,…
#earnings FFIV
Sold May 17, 145/185 strangle for 1.38, stock at 165, thanks as always Jeff.
DHI earnings analysis
#Earnings $DHI reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 25, 2019 BO -2.61%
Nov. 8, 2018 BO -8.96% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 BO +10.87% Biggest UP
April 26, 2018 BO +1.20%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.07%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +1.27%
July 26, 2017 BO -1.91%
April 20, 2017 BO -2.50%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO +6.61%
Nov. 8, 2016 BO -5.44%
July 21, 2016 BO -0.34%
April 21, 2016 BO +1.14%
Avg (+ or -) 3.66%
Bias 0.03%, no bias on earnings.
With stock at 46.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 44.24 to 48.76
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 44.80 to 48.20
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (10.9%): 41.45 to 51.55
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 42.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
FFIV earnings analysis
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
April 20, 2016 AC +5.53%
Avg (+ or -) 4.80%
Bias -0.23%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 165.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 155.35 to 174.65
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.08 to 172.92
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 149.21 to 180.79
Based on DOWN max only (-8.3%): 151.39
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings FFIV DHI Jeff-can you…
#earnings FFIV DHI
Jeff-can you show data for FFIV and DHI? Thank you
IRBT
STO June 21, 85 put @ 1.55
STO July 19, 80 put @ 1.60
OK, gave myself a little more room.
IRBT STO 4/26/19 103.0 CALL @2.05 Either I make $2 @expiration this Friday, or give myself $2 cushion in case the stock goes down further.
YETI STO 5/3/19 34.0 CALL @2.05 Naked
Took the plunge, 1/10th position.
IRBT BTO STOCK @103.10 Probably a day trade, I’ll swing it if it’s working.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
April 27, 2016 AC +7.19%
Avg (+ or -) 5.62%
Bias 0.78%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 170.98 to 193.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 171.77 to 192.34
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 147.49 to 216.51
Based on UP max only (10.8%): 201.67
Open to requests for other symbols.
First post – been reading…
ISRG
First post – been reading here a while. Appreciate what I’ve learned, and hope I can learn some more.
Thanks for the invite Jeff!
ISRG BTC 4/26 170/180 BuPS @0.12. Had opened this on 4/22 for 1.63 after ISRG dipped post earnings.
A TRADE:
AMD STO 4/26/19 29.0 CALLS @.47 Will cover if necessary.
IRBT STO 4/26/19 105/102 BuPS @1.36 FALLING KNIFE
#earnings #closing CAT EBAY sold…
NUGT closing
#ContangoETFs The $NUGT positions I sold in first quarter are starting to close:
BTC $NUGT June 30 call for .15 on Apr 15. Sold for 1.35 on Feb 19th
BTC $NUGT Sept 35 call for .20 yesterday. Sold for 2.06 on Jan 31st.
Looks like $DUST may be coming in to play soon.
ISRG
STO June 450 puts @ 5.10
EW closed
#Earnings Sold to close $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 2.25. Bought yesterday for 1.03. Third quarter in a row this was the best symbol for this strategy. Unfortunately I only got a partial fill yesterday.
IRBT puts
Sold $IRBT 5/17 95 puts @ 1.65. Delta 20.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX1dte Since I plumb forgot to sell this yesterday, selling it this morning:
Sold $SPX Apr 24th 2890/2910-2945/2960 condors for .95. Expires today. (IV: 8.02%, SPX 2932)
Sometimes because volatility is higher in the morning, and because morning gaps can be accounted for, this sometimes can be a better approach that selling at the previous day’s close.
SNAPped shut
#Earnings Sold to close $SNAP Apr26 12 #LongStraddle for .75. Bought for 1.95 yesterday. If I don’t get the gap I try to sell quickly while volatility is still high, limiting the loss.
A TRADE:
MDLZ 5/3/19 STO 50.0/46.5 BuPS @.72
UVXY
#DiagonalBearCallSpreads – New all time low today so buying out in June to sell against. Already paid for with yesterday morning’s sale of the weekly calls. Long 5 for every 1 short so far.
Bought to Open UVXY JUN 21 2019 90.0 Calls @ .18
Still long May 90’s also…
EW earnings analysis
#Earnings $EW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Bought to Open $EW Apr26/May03 180 #DoubleCalendar for 1.03. This one has a good risk profile and has been a winner for me two quarters in a row.
Jan. 31, 2019 AC -1.00%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -5.35%
July 26, 2018 AC -8.50%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.82%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC +3.81%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -9.55%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.64%
April 25, 2017 AC +10.49% Biggest UP
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -8.45%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -17.09% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2016 AC +5.62%
April 26, 2016 AC +0.08%
Avg (+ or -) 6.20%
Bias -2.76%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 182.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 172.02 to 191.98
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 170.72 to 193.28
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (17.1%): 150.90 to 213.10
Based on UP max only (10.5%): 201.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings EBAY Sold May 17,…
#earnings EBAY
Sold May 17, 36/37 strangle for 2.18. It’s actually a straddle but the 36 put gets me closer to the max moves, thanks again Jeff for the data.
EBAY earnings analysis
#Earnings $EBAY reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +1.15%
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +5.87%
July 18, 2018 AC -10.11%
April 25, 2018 AC -5.58%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +13.82% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -1.79%
July 20, 2017 AC -1.53%
April 19, 2017 AC -3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +4.99%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC -10.76% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2016 AC +10.89%
April 26, 2016 AC +3.18%
Avg (+ or -) 6.13%
Bias 0.52%, slight positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 36.75 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.53 to 38.97
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 34.50 to 39.00
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.8%): 31.67 to 41.83
Based on DOWN max only (-10.8%): 32.80
Open to requests for other symbols.
Closing XBI
Bought to close $XBI 5/17 77 puts @ .30. Sold for 1.13 on 4/18.
#earnings EBAY Jeff can you…
#earnings EBAY
Jeff can you show EBAY data? Thanks
#earnings CAT Sold May 17,…
#earnings CAT
Sold May 17, 130/155 strangle for 1.83, right at the 1 day max moves. Thanks Jeff.
SNAP straddle
#Earnings Bought to Open $SNAP Apr 26th 12 #LongStraddle for 1.95. I need a 16.3% move to reach break-even points. Avg move on the stock has been 19.8%. Intraday Max Move on the day after earnings is an average of 23.3%.
Earnings Trade XLNX
#earnings
$XLNX STO 4/26 128 put at 2.30 Stock at 136.73
War machine
#Earnings Yesterday Lockheed, today Northrup. Next trade will be in Stark Industries.
Bought to open $NOC Apr26/May03 295 #DoubleCalendar for 1.09.
TWTR Stop Hit
NOC earnings analysis
#Earnings I found today’s trades: #DoubleCalender on NOC and #LongStraddle on $SNAP
$NOC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 31, 2019 BO -1.87%
Oct. 24, 2018 BO -6.00%
July 25, 2018 BO -6.53% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.60%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +3.68%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +3.64%
July 26, 2017 BO -0.07%
April 26, 2017 BO -0.02%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -1.68%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO +3.88% Biggest UP
July 27, 2016 BO -0.24%
April 27, 2016 BO +1.68%
Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.51%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 294.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 280.91 to 307.09
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 286.19 to 301.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.5%): 274.80 to 313.20
Based on UP max only (+3.9%): 305.41
Open to requests for other symbols.
LABU
#coveredcalls
STO May 17 60 cc @ 1.15 shares at 50.62
Rolling NFLX Calls / Close Early OKTA
#coveredcalls
$NFLX BTC 4/26 382.5 calls and STO 5/3 385 calls for $2.00 added credit. Stock at 382.40
#bucs
$OKTA STC 5/17 75/90 BUCS at 13.50. BTO on 1/25 for 6.42. Thank you @jsd501 for your spot on analysis.
CAT earnings analysis
#Earnings $CAT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 28, 2019 BO -9.12% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -7.55%
July 30, 2018 BO -1.97%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.20%
Jan. 25, 2018 BO +0.61%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO +4.98%
July 25, 2017 BO +5.87%
April 25, 2017 BO +7.86% Biggest UP
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -0.94%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -1.75%
July 26, 2016 BO +5.15%
April 22, 2016 BO -0.43%
Avg (+ or -) 4.37%
Bias -0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.17 to 149.83
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 136.27 to 148.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 129.50 to 155.50
Based on UP max only (7.9%): 153.70
Open to requests for other symbols.
ANTM earnings analysis
#Earnings $ANTM reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +9.11%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +3.79%
July 25, 2018 BO +0.75%
April 25, 2018 BO +6.15%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +1.81%
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +5.35%
July 26, 2017 BO -2.93%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.80%
Feb. 1, 2017 BO +4.31%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +4.74%
July 27, 2016 BO -2.71%
April 27, 2016 BO -1.57%
Avg (+ or -) 3.92%
Bias 2.72%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 250.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 236.54 to 263.46
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 240.20 to 259.80
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 227.23 to 272.78
Based on DOWN max only (-2.9%): 242.68
Open to requests for other symbols.
SNAP earnings analysis – straddle candidate
#Earnings #LongStraddle strategy has been working well lately. Worked on SNAP last quarter and I’ll probably try again.
$SNAP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over it entire history.
Feb. 5, 2019 AC +22.01% 22.01%
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -10.15% -10.15%
Aug. 7, 2018 AC -6.78% -6.78%
May 1, 2018 AC -21.93% -21.93% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 6, 2018 AC +47.58% 47.58% Biggest UP
Nov. 7, 2017 AC -14.61% -14.61%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -14.08% -14.08%
May 10, 2017 AC -21.45% -21.45%
Avg (+ or -) 19.82%
Bias -2.43%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 12.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 10.08 to 13.92
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 9.62 to 14.38
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (47.6%): 6.29 to 17.71
Based on DOWN max only (-21.9%): 9.37
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX flying
#SPX1dte As soon as I give up on the move I’ve been waiting for, it happens. Now I’m stuck with a 2930 short expiring this Friday. I will be rolling it, but not sure how or when yet.
#earnings #rolling TWTR Yesterday sold…
TRADES:
YETI BTO STOCK @32.47
YETI STO 4/26/19 32.5 CALLS @.85
#earnings WHR TWTR Yesterday sold…
#earnings WHR TWTR
Yesterday sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, bought this morning for .40. TWTR not cooperating-yet.
BA EWZ SOXL XBI
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Cleaning up a few making room for some earnings trades…
BA: Hoping for a dip on earnings tomorrow to sell again.
Bought to Close BA MAY 24 2019 325.0 Put @ 1.40 (sold for 3.70)
EWZ: Covered Calls
Sold EWZ MAY 17 2019 41.5 Calls @ .94
SOXL: Bought to Close SOXL MAY 17 2019 120.0 Put @.45 (sold for 3.13)
XBI: New starter position
Sold XBI MAY 24 2019 80.0 Put @ 1.25
Closing WHR
Bought to close $WHR 6/21 120 puts @ .80. Sold for 1.80 yesterday pre-earnings.
LMT and TWTR closing
#Earnings Closed $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .95 and 1.00. Bought for .765 yesterday. The gap up is a bit much for a calendar to handle, but these higher priced stocks mean higher priced options and more flexibility to close. I was probably too early, but I have been bitten before by waiting
Closed partial of $TWTR Apr 26th long 34 calls for 4.00, 4.40, and 4.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 3.64. Looks like it’s doing its usual thing, gap and run, so I’ll wait to close the rest.
ROKU UVXY
#ShortPuts #DiagonalBearCallSpreads – A couple little ones…
Bought to Close ROKU APR 26 2019 50.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.35)
Sold UVXY MAY 10 2019 37.5 Calls @ 1.05
Sell Calls NFLX HIIQ WK / Rolling TNDM Puts and Calls / Close Early SPX
#coveredcalls
$NFLX STO 4/26 382.5 calls at 1.75 Stock at 377.37
$HIIQ STO 4/26 30 calls at 1.30 and 1.20. Stock at 24.85. Assigned a bunch of these on put assignment
$WK STO 5/17 55 call at 1.20 Stock at 49.91
Rolling
#shortputs
$TNDM BTC 4/26 68.50 puts and STO 5/3 68.50 puts at .80 credits. Earnings 4/30 Have to watch closely.
#shortcalls
$TNDM BTC 4/26 66 calls and STO 5/3 64 calls at .10 debit. Earnings 4/30 These are covered. Stock currently at 56.76.
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 4/24 2875/2900 BUPS at $4.00. STO 4/16 for 5.50.Thank you @jeffcp66
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte I am tempting the market to do something. I hope it doesn’t.
Sold $SPX Apr 26th 2850/2875/2930/2955 condors for 4.75.
Expiring today: Apr 22nd 2855/2875/2930/2945 condors, sold Thursday for .80
A TRADE:
AMD STO 4/26/19 28.0 ITM PUTS @.50 Also have the short 28.0 CALLS covered.
WHR puts
Sold $WHR Jun 21 120 puts @ 1.80. Earnings after the bell today. Strike is around 1 standard deviation away. If assigned, basis will be 118.20, 15% lower than the current price. Dividend yield at that level would be 4%. More realistically thought, I’m looking for a volatility contraction after tonight’s earnings report and if there’s a move within the expected range, I’ll take profits quickly.
TWTR straddle
#Earnings Bought to Open $TWTR Apr 26th 34 #LongStraddle for 3.64.
Stock has an average move of 12.1%. I need a 10.7% move to hit breakeven points. Only 4 out of the last 12 moves were less than 10%.
#earnings WHR Sold May 17,…
#earnings WHR
Sold May 17, 120/160 strangle for 1.42, right at the max moves, thanks Jeff.
LMT earnings trade & analysis
#Earnings Bought to Open $LMT Apr26/May03 315 #DoubleCalendar for .76 and .77
$LMT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Jan. 29, 2019 BO +1.45%
Oct. 23, 2018 BO -1.66%
July 24, 2018 BO +1.33%
April 24, 2018 BO -6.16% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 29, 2018 BO +1.89%
Oct. 24, 2017 BO -2.36%
July 18, 2017 BO -0.58%
April 25, 2017 BO -2.24%
Jan. 24, 2017 BO -1.77%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +7.36% Biggest UP
July 19, 2016 BO +1.04%
April 26, 2016 BO +2.58%
Avg (+ or -) 2.54%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 315.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 302.98 to 327.02
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 307.01 to 322.99
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.4%): 291.82 to 338.18
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 295.60
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings TWTR Sold May 17,…
#earnings TWTR
Sold May 17, 30/39 strangle for 1.00, thanks for the data Jeff.
#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB,…
#coveredcallcampaign AA, AXL, X, LB, ARLO
Selling calls (AXL is a covered put), May 17, couple more to get filled.
TRADES:
BTO AMD STOCK @28.13
BTO YETI STOCK @31.20
STO SKX 4/26 30.0 CALLS @.50
TWTR earnings analysis
#Earnings $TWTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
In all cases except the second to last date on the list below, TWTR kept advancing in the same direction after one day after earnings. So for the 5-day totals, add about 1-4% more than the one-day numbers below.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -9.83%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +15.46%
July 27, 2018 BO -20.54% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 BO -2.36%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +12.15%
Oct. 26, 2017 BO +18.49% Biggest UP
July 27, 2017 BO -14.12%
April 26, 2017 BO +7.91%
Feb. 9, 2017 BO -12.33%
Oct. 27, 2016 BO +0.63%
July 26, 2016 AC -14.52%
April 26, 2016 AC -16.28%
Avg (+ or -) 12.05%
Bias -2.95%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 34.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.56 to 37.44
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 29.90 to 38.10
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (20.5%): 27.02 to 40.98
Based on UP max only (+18.5%): 40.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
WHR earnings analysis
#Earnings $WHR reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
There is no significant difference between 1-day moves and 5-day moves.
Jan. 28, 2019 AC +9.66% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.78%
July 23, 2018 AC -14.52% Biggest DOWN
April 23, 2018 AC +3.75%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC +2.30%
Oct. 23, 2017 AC -10.54%
July 26, 2017 AC -6.28%
April 25, 2017 BO +3.51%
Jan. 26, 2017 BO -8.54%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO -10.77%
July 22, 2016 BO +2.67%
April 26, 2016 BO -3.55%
Avg (+ or -) 6.91%
Bias -2.13%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 129.58 to 150.42
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 130.33 to 149.67
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (14.5%): 119.67 to 160.33
Based on UP max only (+9.7%): 153.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
LABU
BTC Jun 21 70 CC @ .90. STO Feb 22 70 C @ 2.80 working down assignment @ 60. This is second cc, cost basis about 56. Will wait for next up swing to initiate another cc.
Econ Calendar for week of 4/22/19
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=22&month=4&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
EWZ ISRG SMH SQ TQQQ
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Out all week with a death in the family and next week with a long planned vacation but still trying to squeeze a few trades in…
EWZ: Assigned stock at 41.30 basis
ISRG: For earnings but out to May: Sold ISRG MAY 17 2019 475.0 Put @ 5.40
SMH and TQQQ: Rolled DITM calls out. Sold against LEAPS
SQ: Bought to Close SQ APR 18 2019 65.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.30)
Have a great weekend everyone!
Options Bistro 