#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Don’t panic
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
#earnings SHOP
Following Jeff and Fuzzball (who better to follow), sold Aug. 16, 270/300/330/332.50 Big Lizard/Iron Condor for 6.05. Thanks guys
#earnings #closing ADP
Bought Sept. 20, 150/180 strangle for 1.06, sold yesterday for 1.66. Thank you for the info Jeff.
#earnings QCOM
Sold Sept. 20, 65/85 strangle for 1.46, thanks for the data Jeff.
Upside Warning canceled
More likely to come
#spx look out below!
#spx look out below!
SPX
STO August 5, 2850/2900 put spread at .50 cents. I was too early.
STO August 7, 2850/2900 put spread at 1.10
Some TRADES:
OSTK STO 8/9/19 23.5 CALLS @1.30
AMD BTO STOCK @31.08
AMD STO 8/2/19 31.0 ITM PUTS .50
AMD STO 8/9/19 31.5 CALLS @.75
#earnings WDC
Sold Sept. 20 45/65 strangle for 1.34, outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff
#closing COP
Bought Sept. 20, 85 put for .94, sold yesterday for 1.59, thanks to MikeL for the idea.
ADP closing
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
QCOM earnings analysis
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
April 19, 2017 AC +0.09%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -5.00%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -0.20%
July 20, 2016 AC +7.36% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.15 to 78.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.43 to 77.57
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 68.88 to 81.12
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 80.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
WDC earnings analysis
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias -3.12%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.14 to 58.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 51.45 to 58.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 45.00 to 65.00
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 59.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
SHOP trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.
WYNN Earnings
#ShortPuts – Selling this early after a decent pullback this week. This is a straight put sale hoping it’ll talk the stock down a little to help me roll a 121 strike covered call. I my add a Lizard next week. Earnings next Tue after the close.
Sold WYNN AUG 09 2019 125.0 Put @ 2.40
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Another earnings announcement and another blowout to the upside. Thanks to the Lizard it still made a little cash.
Bought to Close AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 1.87 (sold for 2.51)
Order in to close the put side for .01
AAPL covered calls
Sold $AAPL 9/20 230 calls @ 2.21. Covered by long stock.
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 3.27%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 318.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.33 to 341.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 296.93 to 339.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 279.74 to 356.25
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 289.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
NVTA BTO STOCK @27.69
AAPL
BTC $AAPL 8/16/2019 180/190 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO 7/11 @1.30.
Still holding the 9/20 $AAPL 225/190 Strangle from yesterday.
WYNN Earnings
Finally confirmed…
LAS VEGAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Wynn Resorts, Limited(WYNN) announced today that it will release the Company’s financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2019 after the market close on Tuesday, August 6, 2019, followed by a conference call at 1:30 p.m. PT (4:30 p.m. ET).
The call will be broadcast live at www.wynnresorts.com under the “Company Information” section. Interested parties may also dial (888) 455-5965 or, for international callers, (773) 799-3869. The conference call access code is 3983556.
A replay of the call will be available through September 8, 2019 by dialing (888) 567-0385 or, for international callers, (402) 998-1755. The replay access code is 9694971. The call will also be archived at www.wynnresorts.com.
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizard – The usual. Playing for a down move just outside the expected move with no upside risk. Going out to Aug monthly for a little more room.
Sold AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 2.51
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors for 1.20. IV 14.64%, SPX 3013.
Juicy premium due to the Fed announcement. I think everyone knows what the decision will be, but no one knows what it will do to the market once they confirm it. My guess is: not much. But I’ll be prepared if I’m wrong.
ADP earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ADP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 BO -4.20%
Jan. 30, 2019 BO +4.03%
Oct. 31, 2018 BO +4.96%
Aug. 1, 2018 BO -1.76%
May 2, 2018 BO +2.74%
Jan. 31, 2018 BO +2.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 BO -0.91%
July 27, 2017 BO +9.10% Biggest UP
May 3, 2017 BO -6.24% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 1, 2017 BO -5.68%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +3.52%
July 28, 2016 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.07%
Bias 0.38%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 166.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 159.56 to 172.44
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 159.24 to 172.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.1%): 150.89 to 181.11
Based on DOWN max only (-6.2%): 155.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings AAPL
Sold Sept. 20, 190/225 strangle for 3.64. Thanks for the data Jeff.
Anyone selling puts on COF?
Anyone selling puts on COF?
#earnings EA
Sold Sept. 20, 75/100 strangle for 1.79, just outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.
DRIP candle
A huge red candle printing on the daily chart, down around 15% today. This is the type of volatility that kills the long side of these ETFs. Just to recover and get back to the highs from this morning/yesterday, DRIP will have to increase more than 20%.
DRIP
#ContangoETFs #ShortCalls – Now that’s a pretty red bar!
EA earnings analysis
#Earnings $EA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 7, 2019 AC +1.24%
Feb. 5, 2019 AC -13.30% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 30, 2018 AC -4.05%
July 26, 2018 AC -5.70%
May 8, 2018 AC +5.74%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC +6.95%
Oct. 31, 2017 AC -4.28%
July 27, 2017 AC +0.55%
May 9, 2017 AC +12.65% Biggest UP
Jan. 31, 2017 AC -0.51%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC +1.64%
Aug. 2, 2016 AC +2.40%
Avg (+ or -) 4.92%
Bias 0.28%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 88.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 82.17 to 93.83
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 83.67 to 92.33
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 76.30 to 99.70
Based on UP max only (+12.7%): 99.13
Open to requests for other symbols.
NUGT
STC, August 16, 30 calls At 5.10, these were bought at 4.50
EXAS not reporting today
$EXAS reported Monday morning, so please ignore its presence on the chart for today.
NUGT – Roll
Rolled 8/2/2019 34 Calls (Covered) for 8/9/2019 34.5 calls @0.40. Overall Cost basis @31.53.
Peeling off a little NUGT
Lightening things just a bit. Bought to close $NUGT 9/20 54 calls @ .68. Sold for 1.40.
#perpetualrollingstrangles TSLA
Bringing back a hashtag from the past. Rolled inverted 185 call/200 put from Aug. 16 to Sept. 20 for 5.26. I’ve brought in $4,160 in premium, huge margin hog for me at $10,000 with the stock around 240. Started in May as a 180p/275c strangle.
BYND closed
#Earnings Bought to close $BYND 145/175-230/232.5 Broken-Wing Condors for 1.45. Sold for 3.87 yesterday.
AAPL earnings analysis
#Earnings $AAPL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 AC +4.90%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC +6.83% Biggest UP
Nov. 1, 2018 AC -6.63% Biggest DOWN
July 31, 2018 AC +5.89%
May 1, 2018 AC +4.41%
Feb. 1, 2018 AC -4.33%
Nov. 2, 2017 AC +2.61%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +4.72%
May 2, 2017 AC -0.30%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +6.09%
Oct. 25, 2016 AC -2.24%
July 26, 2016 AC +6.49%
Avg (+ or -) 4.62%
Bias 2.37%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 207.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 197.49 to 217.51
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters:197.91 to 217.09
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 193.33 to 221.67
Based on DOWN max only (-6.6%): 193.74
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN Earnings
Up to their old tricks again. All sorts of earnings dates out there. TOS shows Aug 1st unconfirmed and Fidelity shows today. IV on the option chain would lead me to believe it’s next week. C’mon WYNN get your sh#t together!
NVDA
#ShortPuts – I just don’t feel right when I don’t have a position in this one. One of my top performers last 2 years so jumping back in for (hopefully) a quickie prior to earnings.
Sold NVDA AUG 09 2019 167.5 Put @ 2.00
BYND
Dub Cals closed
#Earnings Move a bit too strong on both #DoubleCalendar so exiting with small losses.
STC $PG 116 for .28, bought yesterday for .36
STC $ETN 81 for .29, bought yesterday for .34
BYND Earnings
#Earnings – One earnings trade and one not an earnings trade but needed a pullback. Completely out of this stock now.
Breakeven on regular earnings since I don’t want any chance of being stuck in this thing…
Bought to Close BYND AUG 2 2019 140/170/225/227.5 Jade Lizard (skewed iron condor?) @ 3.17 (sold for 3.16)
Nice profit on the call spreads sold ITM…
Bought to Close BYND NOV 15 2019 200.0/205.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.30 (sold for 2.50)
#earnings #closing GRUB SIRI
GRUB Bought Aug. 16, 70/90 GRUB for 1.52, sold yesterday for 3.75.
BYND barely budging
They lost .24 per share, vs. .08 loss expected.
UUP going up
I’m stealing this idea from Options Action. I usually hate their trades but this was a pretty simple one…
Bought to open $UUP Sept 26 calls for .72.
(this is one of those ETFs that trades until 4:15 eastern)
ETF closed at 26.57, so I’m only paying .15 of extrinsic value, on a bet the dollar goes higher after the rate cut.
#earnings GRUB SIRI
GRUB Sold Aug. 16,70/90 strangle for 3.75. Thanks for the data Jeff
SIRI (Serius Radio) bought an Aug. 16, 6 straddle for .55.
SPX 4-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Aug 2nd 2935/2960-3070/3095 condors for 2.60.
Risky as this is a big week for news and earnings, but .11/.09 short deltas make me comfortable.
Expiring today: 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors, double-size position sold Friday for .45
GRUB earnings analysis
#Earnings $GRUB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Feb. 7, 2019 BO -2.00%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO -11.98%
July 25, 2018 BO +23.53%
May 1, 2018 BO -8.39%
Feb. 8, 2018 BO +27.36% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2017 BO +11.17%
Aug. 3, 2017 AC +9.05%
April 27, 2017 BO +22.55%
Feb. 8, 2017 BO -3.51%
Oct. 26, 2016 BO -12.69% Biggest DOWN
July 28, 2016 BO +24.10%
May 3, 2016 BO -7.12%
Avg (+ or -) 13.62%
Bias 6.01%, very positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 79.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 68.90 to 89.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 68.24 to 89.76
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (27.4%): 57.39 to 100.61
Based on DOWN max only (-12.7%): 68.97
Open to requests for other symbols.
BYND earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open #JadeLizard with disaster protection, making it a Broken-Wing Iron Condor:
Sold Aug 2nd 230/232.5 call spread AND 175/145 put spread, for 3.87. No upside risk… downside max risk 30.00.
BYND Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – I feel like I’ve gotta play this just for the excitement aspect…LOL. I like @matt0311 ‘s idea which is similar to how I’ve played most of these earnings lizards. Selling call spread at the money and giving the put side room outside the expected move. In this case I’m also adding the junk long put in case this thing absolutely implodes. I’m also short some ITM call spreads so I wouldn’t hate a test of my put here.
Sold BYND AUG 2 2019 140/170/225/227.5 Jade Lizard (skewed iron condor?) @ 3.16
#earnings #tastytradefollow #ironbutterfly PG LLY
PG Sold Sept. 20, 100/115/115/130 for 5.97 thanks for the data Jeff
LLY Sold Sept. 20, 95/120 for 1.04
#earnings GRUB
I know it’s late in the day, I apologize, but Jeff, do you have GRUB data? Thanks
BYND trade
#Earnings I have not traded this one yet. Thinking of Aug 2nd #JadeLizard, sell 180 put, and sell 250/252.5 call spread. Going for 5.45 credit. No upside risk. Thoughts?
PG earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 23, 2019 BO -2.68%
Jan. 23, 2019 BO +4.86%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +8.79% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO +0.84%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.53%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO -3.09%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -3.64% Biggest DOWN
July 27, 2017 BO +1.54%
April 26, 2017 BO -2.51%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +3.24%
Oct. 25, 2016 BO +3.41%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.40%
Avg (+ or -) 3.04%
Bias 0.80%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 115.85 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 111.58 to 120.12
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 112.32 to 119.38
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.8%): 105.67 to 126.03
Based on DOWN max only (-3.6%): 111.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
ETN earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $ETN reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO -1.39%
Jan. 31, 2019 BO +4.62%
Oct. 30, 2018 BO -1.87%
July 31, 2018 BO +3.30%
May 1, 2018 BO -1.55%
Feb. 1, 2018 BO +4.63% Biggest UP
Oct. 31, 2017 BO +0.99%
Aug. 1, 2017 BO -5.52% Biggest DOWN
May 2, 2017 BO +1.28%
Feb. 2, 2017 BO -1.80%
Nov. 1, 2016 BO -4.81%
Aug. 2, 2016 BO +0.10%
Avg (+ or -) 2.66%
Bias -0.17%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 81.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.70 to 84.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 78.85 to 83.15
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (5.5%): 76.53 to 85.47
Based on UP max only (+4.6%): 84.75
Open to requests for other symbols.
EXAS
STO September 20, 90 puts @ 1.70
TRADES:
GOOS STO 8/2/19 44.5 ITM PUTS @.70 Want to buy the stock cheaper.
OSTK STO 8/2/19 21.5 CALLS .65 NTM
EXAS STO 103/98 BeCS @1.57
ILMN earnings analysis
#Earnings $ILMN reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 25, 2019 AC -1.61%
Jan. 29, 2019 AC -4.44%
Oct. 23, 2018 AC -7.74% Biggest DOWN
July 30, 2018 AC +12.14%
April 24, 2018 AC -3.06%
Jan. 30, 2018 AC -3.54%
Oct. 24, 2017 AC -2.83%
Aug. 1, 2017 AC +14.82% Biggest UP
April 25, 2017 AC +1.69%
Jan. 31, 2017 AC +0.92%
Nov. 1, 2016 AC -2.75%
July 26, 2016 AC +8.09%
Avg (+ or -) 5.30%
Bias 0.97%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 302.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 286.76 to 317.24
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 285.99 to 318.01
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 257.24 to 346.76
Based on DOWN max only (-7.7%): 278.63
Open to requests for other symbols.
BYND earnings
#Earnings First quarter earnings were reported on June 6th, resulting in a +39.3% one-day move. That move tonight would create a range of 133.54 to 306.46, based on current price of 220.00.
Expected move into Friday on TOS is about 42.20, (although that could change through out the course of the day).
At current price of 220, that would mean a range from 177.80 to 262.20.
The options market looks to be expecting a decent pullback eventually… for January options, the 180 put and 180 call are about the same price.
NUGT
STO 8/2/2019 $NUGT 34 calls (covered) @1.08.
BYND Any news? Price down…
BYND
Any news? Price down 2.5% PM, they don’t report until market close.
Correction: They report PM, sorry about that.
SPX
My July 26, 2905/2930 put spread will expire today. Thanks Jeff for the idea.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Volatility is low in this rally, so again going 10-wide, double-size. I wanted to sell earlier but felt it could go another leg higher, and it did.
Sold $SPX July 29th 2985/2995-3050/3060 condors for .40. IV 5.63%, SPX 3026.
Expiring by the skin of my teeth: July 26th 2960/2970-3030/3040, sold for .45 yesterday.
SWK roll
#Earnings #Rolling My earnings condor is a bust, with the 148/150 call side set to expire ITM, which will be a 2.00 debit, against the .80- credit for selling it on Tuesday. So I’m trying a one-week move to breakeven.
Sold $SWK Aug 2 148/150-152.5/155 condors for 1.30. If we can hold tight enough to expire I should come out flat after accounting for commissions.
BA
STO January 2021, 200 puts @ 4.80
Econ Calendar for week of 7/29/19
A TRADE:
GOOS STC STOCK @45.56 Preserving profits, I have great profits, then lose them at the end of the day. So…..we’ll see this time.
REGN
#CoveredCalls – Every time it looks like a breakout it sells off again. Building a nice long base that’s gonna go up or down eventually. 🙂 🙂
Bought to Close REGN JUL 26 2019 315.0 Call @ .10 (sold for 5.90)
Sold REGN AUG 02 2019 312.5 Call @ 2.30
Earnings Aug 6th…
TRADES:
OSTK ASSIGNED OUT 17.0 CALLS
OSTK STO 20.5 8/2/19 CALLS @.85
EXAS STO 8/2/19 118.0 PUTS @5.30
PAYS BTO STOCK @ 13.64
AVGO
#ShortPuts – Taking this off a couple weeks early…
Bought to Close AVGO AUG 09 2019 265.0 Put @ .35 (sold for 3.40)
BYND
#BearCallSpreads – I’ve gotta take a shot at this thing. Going defined risk out to Nov and slightly in the money. Possibly leg into an iron condor on a pullback.
Sold 2 BYND NOV 15 2019 200.0/205.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 2.50
#earnings #closing NFLX
Out of a NFLX earnings iron condor for a small gain, sold for 3.10, bought for 2.75, happy to have any gain
August 16, 295/315/420/440
A TRADE:
PAYS STO 8/16/19 12.5 PUTS @.85 I’m also long the stock.
SBUX closed
#Earnings Sold to close $SBUX Jul26/Aug02 90p/91c #DoubleCalendar for .26. Bought yesterday for .38. Move was too high so I got out early while puts still have value. I don’t have any hope for a big drop today.
Options Bistro 