#SPX1dte expiring today:
$SPX July 24th 2955/2975-3025/3045 condors, sold yesterday for .70
$SPX July 24th 2920/2945-3040/3065 condors, sold for 2.85 last Wednesday.
Daily Archives: Wednesday, July 24, 2019
XLNX Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Everything seems so overbought I’m having trouble finding anything for tomorrow. XLNX is one of the cheaper ones though with pretty good premium. Playing it like all the others…to the downside with no upside risk.
Sold XLNX JUL 26 2019 121/129/132 Jade Lizards @ 3.03
This would get the stock below the 100ma and just above the 50ma and require a move down of 30 percent more than expected.
EDIT…not very much but still a 1.25% divvy yield at 118. Could probably easily triple that with covered call sales.
IRBT Falling Knife
Post earnings sold Nov 15 55 puts @ 1.40. Stock currently at 73.64.
Thanks for the heads up on this one MikeL/@az947.
FYI IRBT is down 18%
FYI
IRBT is down 18%
#earnings FFIV
I wanted to sell a strangle but no liquidity way out there.
Sold a Sept. 20, -140/-140/+145 ratio spread for 1.11.
Followed on the double calendar as well. Thanks for the data Jeff.
EFX analysis and trade
#Earnings $EFX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 10, 2019 BO +0.30%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC +2.18%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC -14.77% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC -3.48%
April 25, 2018 AC -3.22%
March 1, 2018 AC +5.14% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.41%
April 26, 2017 AC -1.83%
Feb. 8, 2017 AC +5.03%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC -4.30%
July 27, 2016 AC -1.39%
Avg (+ or -) 3.69%
Bias -1.58%%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 140.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 134.14 to 146.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 135.32 to 145.68
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.8%): 119.75 to 161.25
Based on UP Max only (+5.1%): 147.72
Open to requests for other symbols.
NOW earnings analysis and trade
#Earnings $NOW reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
NOW has only moved UP on the last 13 earnings reports. Last time it had a down move was Jan 2016.
April 24, 2019 AC +7.41%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +13.41% Biggest UP
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +1.42%
July 25, 2018 AC +4.60%
April 25, 2018 AC +4.53%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +2.64%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +1.21%
July 26, 2017 AC +0.74% Smallest UP
April 26, 2017 AC +3.75%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +3.61%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +7.68%
July 27, 2016 AC +4.65%
Avg (+ or -) 4.64%
Bias +4.64%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 292.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 273.15 to 310.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 278.46 to 305.54
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.4%): 252.84 to 331.16
Based on smallest UP only (+0.7%): 294.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
CMG call spread
Post-earnings, IV still a bit elevated and the stock slowing down, sold $CMG 8/16 810/820 bear call spread @ 2.20
FFIV dub cal
#Earnings Bought $FFIX Jul26/Aug02 147p/148c #DoubleCalendar for .82-.85. Not all filled yet.
More WDC covered calls
Sold $WDC Sep 20 62.50 calls @ 1.90.
SPX roll
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX July 26th 3020/3045 call spreads for 3.65. My stop point of half the expected move was breached, so I’m out. This condor was sold Monday for 2.80.
FFIV earnings analysis
#Earnings $FFIV reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 24, 2019 AC -1.08%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC -2.22%
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +6.10%
July 25, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 25, 2018 AC +0.89%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -5.05%
Oct. 25, 2017 AC +3.97%
July 26, 2017 AC -7.16%
April 26, 2017 AC -7.50%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -8.25% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +9.57% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC +0.32%
Avg (+ or -) 4.43%
Bias -0.78%, small negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 147.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 140.38 to 154.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 140.96 to 154.04
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (9.6%): 133.38 to 161.62
Based on DOWN Max only (-8.3%): 135.33
Open to requests for other symbols.
FB earnings analysis
#Earnings $FB reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 24, 2019 AC +5.84%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC +10.81% Biggest UP
Oct. 30, 2018 AC +3.80%
July 25, 2018 AC -18.96% Biggest DOWN
April 25, 2018 AC +9.06%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC +3.31%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC -2.04%
July 26, 2017 AC +2.91%
May 3, 2017 AC -0.62%
Feb. 1, 2017 AC -1.79%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -5.63%
July 27, 2016 AC +1.34%
Avg (+ or -) 5.51%
Bias 0.67%, small positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 200.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 187.08 to 212.92
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 188.98 to 211.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 162.08 to 237.92
Based on UP Max only (+10.8%): 221.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings #closing CAT
bought Sept. 125/150 strangle for 2.40, sold yesterday for 2.98
Earnings calendar updates:
$EFX reports tonight
$TMUS reports tomorrow morning
$RCL reports tomorrow morning
EWW
#ShortPuts – It’s only been below this level once in the last 10 years (a spike low during the big selloff last fall). Otherwise this has been a good entry. Usually one of the E’s is at a decent entry point. (EEM,EWW,EWZ)
Sold EWW AUG 23 2019 41.5 Puts @ .67 (really wanted one more down day on it)
#earnings #closing VFC
Bought Sept. 77.50/95 strangle for 1.10, sold yesterday for 1.70, taking my winnings to CMG for a burrito bowl.
NVDA
#ShortPuts – Out a week early and commission free. Ready for earnings now.
Bought to Close NVDA AUG 02 2019 152.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 2.40)
T Earnings
#Earnings – I wanted the stock but I’ll take the winner…
Bought to Close T JUL 26 2019 31.5 Puts @ .02 (sold for .59)
CMG Earnings
#JadeLizards #Earnings – Gave it a shot. Made a few bucks. See ya next quarter. I will not be spending the 10 dollars on burritos!
Bought to Close CMG JUL 26 2019 600/660/720/725 modified Jade Lizard @ 4.81 (sold for 4.91)
Closing SNAP
#Earnings Sold the first $SNAP long July 126th 14.5 calls for 2.25 and 2.50. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.06.
Options Bistro 