#VIXIndicator Although we recovered from the huge intraday drop, the VIX spiked again at the close and fired a Downside Warning. Expect more volatility and a market drop in the coming days.
Daily Archives: Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Don’t panic
#SPX1dte I’m grateful that being at this for 8 years prevents me from panicking. These spreads had me in the hole many thousands of dollars at the lows.
I closed Friday’s put spread as the stop was most definitely breached today… heck, the short strike was breached.
BTC $SPX Aug 2nd 2960/2935 for 4.85. Condors sold for 2.60 on Monday.
Expiring: July 31st 2945/2965-3050/3070 condors, sold yesterday for 1.20.
Expiring: July 31st 2910/2935-3055/3080 condors, sold for 3.00 last Wednesday.
This leaves me flat on SPX tonight.
#earnings SHOP
Following Jeff and Fuzzball (who better to follow), sold Aug. 16, 270/300/330/332.50 Big Lizard/Iron Condor for 6.05. Thanks guys
#earnings #closing ADP
Bought Sept. 20, 150/180 strangle for 1.06, sold yesterday for 1.66. Thank you for the info Jeff.
#earnings QCOM
Sold Sept. 20, 65/85 strangle for 1.46, thanks for the data Jeff.
Upside Warning canceled
More likely to come
#spx look out below!
#spx look out below!
SPX
STO August 5, 2850/2900 put spread at .50 cents. I was too early.
STO August 7, 2850/2900 put spread at 1.10
Some TRADES:
OSTK STO 8/9/19 23.5 CALLS @1.30
AMD BTO STOCK @31.08
AMD STO 8/2/19 31.0 ITM PUTS .50
AMD STO 8/9/19 31.5 CALLS @.75
#earnings WDC
Sold Sept. 20 45/65 strangle for 1.34, outside the 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff
#closing COP
Bought Sept. 20, 85 put for .94, sold yesterday for 1.59, thanks to MikeL for the idea.
ADP closing
#Earnings Sold to Close $ADP Aug02/Aug09 165p/167.5c #DoubleCalendar for 1.10. Filled on a few with the order that’s been in for hours. The rest should fill unless it spikes higher. Bought yesterday for .57 avg price
QCOM earnings analysis
#Earnings $QCOM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
May 1, 2019 AC +0.89%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.29%
Nov. 7, 2018 AC -8.16% Biggest DOWN
July 25, 2018 AC +7.00%
April 25, 2018 AC +1.44%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -2.12%
Nov. 1, 2017 AC +2.58%
July 19, 2017 AC -4.94%
April 19, 2017 AC +0.09%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -5.00%
Nov. 2, 2016 AC -0.20%
July 20, 2016 AC +7.36% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.42%
Bias -0.20%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 75.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 71.15 to 78.85
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 72.43 to 77.57
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.2%): 68.88 to 81.12
Based on UP max only (+7.4%): 80.52
Open to requests for other symbols.
WDC earnings analysis
#Earnings $WDC reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 29, 2019 AC +1.28%
Jan. 24, 2019 AC +7.52% Biggest UP
Oct. 25, 2018 AC -18.18% Biggest DOWN
July 26, 2018 AC -7.73%
April 26, 2018 AC -7.99%
Jan. 25, 2018 AC +1.82%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 27, 2017 AC -7.54%
April 27, 2017 AC +3.92%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC -1.93%
Oct. 26, 2016 AC +5.41%
July 28, 2016 AC -11.52%
Avg (+ or -) 6.45%
Bias -3.12%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 55.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 51.14 to 58.86
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 51.45 to 58.55
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (18.2%): 45.00 to 65.00
Based on UP max only (+7.5%): 59.14
Open to requests for other symbols.
SHOP trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $SHOP 275/300-330/332.5 Broken-Wing Condor for 4.50.
My version of #JadeLizard with disaster put. If SHOP goes higher, this will be at least a 2.00 profit.
WYNN Earnings
#ShortPuts – Selling this early after a decent pullback this week. This is a straight put sale hoping it’ll talk the stock down a little to help me roll a 121 strike covered call. I my add a Lizard next week. Earnings next Tue after the close.
Sold WYNN AUG 09 2019 125.0 Put @ 2.40
AAPL Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Another earnings announcement and another blowout to the upside. Thanks to the Lizard it still made a little cash.
Bought to Close AAPL AUG 16 2019 195.0/212.5/215.0 Jade Lizard @ 1.87 (sold for 2.51)
Order in to close the put side for .01
AAPL covered calls
Sold $AAPL 9/20 230 calls @ 2.21. Covered by long stock.
SHOP earnings analysis
#Earnings $SHOP reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 30, 2019 BO +7.85%
Feb. 12, 2019 BO +1.37%
Oct. 25, 2018 BO +12.03% Biggest UP
July 31, 2018 BO -6.66%
May 1, 2018 BO -4.45%
Feb. 15, 2018 BO +0.28%
Oct. 31, 2017 BO -9.02% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 1, 2017 BO +5.77%
May 2, 2017 BO +7.40%
Feb. 15, 2017 BO +8.13%
Nov. 2, 2016 BO +6.84%
Aug. 3, 2016 BO +9.72%
Avg (+ or -) 6.63%
Bias 3.27%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 318.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 294.33 to 341.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 296.93 to 339.07
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.0%): 279.74 to 356.25
Based on DOWN max only (-9.0%): 289.32
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
NVTA BTO STOCK @27.69
AAPL
BTC $AAPL 8/16/2019 180/190 #BuPS @0.10. Was STO 7/11 @1.30.
Still holding the 9/20 $AAPL 225/190 Strangle from yesterday.
Options Bistro 