#shortcalls
$AMZN BTC 3/15 1675 and STO 3/22 1690 call for additional 3.60 credit. Sold against long 4/18 1700 calls.
#earlyassignment
$EVTC Assigned 3/15 calls at 30. Basis 29.70 Stock current price 28.67
Daily Archives: Thursday, March 14, 2019
A TRADE:
HIIQ Covered my naked calls that I did today.
HIIQ BTO STOCK @33.68
#dividends SPDR funds I’m not…
#dividends SPDR funds
I’m not certain but I think the SPDR ETFs are all ex-div tomorrow, symbols beginning with X, I’m open to correction if I’m wrong.
AVGO earnings trade
#Earnings Bpought to open $AVGO Mar 15th 260/265/267.5 call #BrokenWingButterfly for 1.70. No upside risk. Allows for a 3% downside move.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 15th (PM) 2755/2775-2835/2855 condors for .75. (IV: 10.37%, SPX 2809)
I will be closing today’s condor for as cheaply as possible into the close, to avoid gap risk on tomorrow morning’s settlement.
A TRADE: Expires tomorrow.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 32.0 PUTS @.45 I’ll accept the stock if put to me. Stock seems to be settling down.
ADBE earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — Sold ADBE Mar 15th 245/250-280/285 condor for 1.12. Allows 5.7% move in either direction. Such a move has only been significantly exceeded twice in the data below.
$ADBE reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -7.28% Biggest DOWN
Sept. 13, 2018 AC +2.29%
June 14, 2018 AC -2.43%
March 15, 2018 AC +3.05%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +1.43%
Sept. 19, 2017 AC -4.24%
June 20, 2017 AC +2.36%
March 16, 2017 AC +3.80%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -1.47%
Sept. 20, 2016 AC +7.11% Biggest UP
June 21, 2016 AC -5.72%
March 17, 2016 AC +3.84%
Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 0.23%, no significant bias on earnings.
With stock at 265.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 252.53 to 277.47
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 255.06 to 274.94
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (7.3%): 245.71 to 284.29
Open to requests for other symbols.
TRADES: Risky Plummeted Sword All expire tomorrow.
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 33.0 CALLS @1.10 Will cover at33.50
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 36.0 CALLS @.65 If it goes up, it will benefit my ITM short Puts.
#coveredcallcampaign NTGR In early February…
#coveredcallcampaign NTGR
In early February I was assigned from a Dec. put that was sold in July as a #fallingknife. The cost basis was down to 36.95, sold an April 19, 36 call for 1.25.
#earnings AVGO Sold April 18,…
#earnings AVGO
Sold April 18, 230/240/300/310 #ironcondor for 1.85, surprised to be filled. Break evens are outside past 1 day max moves. Thanks for the data Jeff.
ORCL earnings trade and analysis
#Earnings — Bought ORCL Mar15/Mar22 53 #DoubleCalendar for .23 & .24.
$ORCL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 17, 2018 AC +0.26%
Sept. 17, 2018 AC -0.30%
June 19, 2018 AC -7.45%
March 19, 2018 AC -9.43% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 14, 2017 AC -3.76%
Sept. 14, 2017 AC -7.67%
June 21, 2017 AC +8.56% Biggest UP
March 15, 2017 AC +6.22%
Dec. 15, 2016 AC -4.30%
Sept. 15, 2016 AC -4.74%
June 16, 2016 AC +2.69%
March 15, 2016 AC +3.82%
Avg (+ or -) 4.93%
Bias -1.34%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 53.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 50.52 to 55.48
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 50.39 to 55.61
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (9.4%): 48.00 to 58.00
Based on Max UP only (+8.6%): 57.54
Open to requests for other symbols.
A TRADE:
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 36.0 CALLS @.65 Stock got killed yesterday. Me too! Short puts. Short calls helped.
AVGO earnings analysis
#Earnings — $AVGO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 AC +0.58%
Sept. 6, 2018 AC +7.69%
June 7, 2018 AC -2.53%
March 15, 2018 AC -4.81% Biggest DOWN
Dec. 6, 2017 AC 0.00%
Aug. 24, 2017 AC -3.70%
June 1, 2017 AC +8.49% Biggest UP
March 1, 2017 AC +0.99%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC +4.90%
Sept. 1, 2016 AC -2.24%
June 2, 2016 AC +4.93%
March 3, 2016 AC +6.35%
Avg (+ or -) 3.93%
Bias 1.72%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 271.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.74 to 284.26
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 260.34 to 281.66
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 247.99 to 294.01
Based on Max DOWN only (-4.8%): 257.96
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 