#bullputspreads
$ADBE BTC 7/26 280/290 BUPS for .15. STO at 1.46. Thank you @lesserweavil
#spxcampaign
$SPX BTC 7/19 2935/2960 BUPS at .30. STO at 5.50. Thank you @jeffcp66
Daily Archives: Thursday, July 18, 2019
#earnings MSFT
Sold 125/145 strangle for 1.40. Have sold essentially the same 20 point wide strangle the last 2 earnings.
CSX some stock sold
#Earnings #Assignment Sold some of my CSX stock at 71.50. That amounts to a .16 profit on a losing trade. Will hold the rest for further recovery.
SPX ~1-DTE
BTC $SPX 2955/2965 #BuPS 7/19/2019 AM @.10. Was STO just before close yesterday @1.0.
Almost makes me even for the day against the $NFLX loss noted earlier. (I’m sure my broker isn’t complaining about the commissions they’ve banked)
NUGT
#BearCallSpreads – Joining the NUGT fun on the bigly rally. Using spreads out to 2020. Starter position with room to add.
Sold NUGT JAN 17 2020 45.0/50.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .98
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Jul 19th 2940/2960-3015/3035 condors for .85.
The short put is the same one I just closed earlier, on the longer term spread. Oh, well.
ISRG Earnings
#Earnings – Wow. Should’ve just skipped the call side of the lizard and closed the short put prior to earnings. Got some downside room now…LOL Somebody leak some info already?
SPX trade close
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX July 19th 2960/2935 put spreads for .40. Sold for 5.50 on July 8th.
This sucker was up near 3.00 this morning. Got no reason to push my luck for one more day.
SKX Earnings
#Earnings #JadeLizards – Playing this slightly to the downside with breakeven below the 50ma and just above the 200ma and slightly outside the expected move. No upside risk if it does breakout higher…
Sold SKX JUL 19 2019 31.0/35.0/36.0 Jade Lizards @ 1.20
HON closed, for real
#Earnings Sold to Close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.38. Bought yesterday for .67.
Taking profits on AVGO
Bought to close 8/9 265 puts @ 1.60. Sold for 3.90 on 7/3.
Thanks again Fuzzy!
#rolling WDC
Rolled 1 penny July 16 57.50 covered calls to August. 16, 55 calls for 1.83 each, assigned WDC some time ago.
SKX strangle
#Earnings Bought to Open $SKX July 19th 34.5/35 #LongStrangles for 4.38.
From current price at 34.75, I need a 13.6% move. Avg move on earnings has been 16.5%.
CL/WTI Trade this Morning
NUGT flying
#ContangoETFs Keeps notching new highs. No strikes breached yet but it could get ugly before it gets better.
Sold $NUGT Jan 2020 55 calls for 3.20. Highest available strike.
TRADES:
OSTK STO 7/19/19 20.0 CALLS @.40 If necessary will cover w/stock. Expires tomorrow.
OSTK STO 7/26/19 21.5 CALLS @48 ” ” “
SKX earnings analysis
#Earnings $SKX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 18, 2019 BO -10.43%
Feb. 7, 2019 AC +15.19%
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +13.78%
July 19, 2018 AC -20.99%
April 19, 2018 AC -27.04% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +7.54%
Oct. 19, 2017 AC +41.44% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC +0.67%
April 20, 2017 AC -2.56%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC +19.32%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -17.26%
July 21, 2016 AC -22.34%
Avg (+ or -) 16.55%
Bias -0.22%, no significant directional bias on earnings, just a big-move bias.
With stock at 34.35 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 30.07 to 38.63
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.67 to 40.03
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (41.4%): 20.12 to 48.58
Based on DOWN Max only (-27.0%): 25.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX
#BullPutSpreads – @fibwizard – Do you use stops on those 100 point wide spreads? Following along (paper trade) with you on the Aug 2915/2815…
SWKS
#Earnings – Careful with this one. I show earnings confirmed for Aug 7th. Not tonight…
NFLX put spread
Sold $NFLX Aug 310/300 BuPS @ 2.60
HON mostly closed – NOT
#Earnings Sold to close $HON Jul19/Jul26 172.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.65. Bought yesterday for .67.
Filled on most of my order. Still a few out there but should fill when price meanders back toward my strike.
MSFT earnings analysis
#Earnings $MSFT reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 24, 2019 AC +3.31%
Jan. 30, 2019 AC -1.83% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 24, 2018 AC +5.84%
July 19, 2018 AC +1.79%
April 26, 2018 AC +1.65%
Jan. 31, 2018 AC -0.78%
Oct. 26, 2017 AC +6.41% Biggest UP
July 20, 2017 AC -0.57%
April 27, 2017 AC +0.27%
Jan. 26, 2017 AC +2.34%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC +4.20%
July 19, 2016 AC +5.31%
Avg (+ or -) 2.86%
Bias 2.33%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 136.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.13 to 140.87
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 132.11 to 139.89
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.4%): 127.28 to 144.72
Based on DOWN Max only (-1.8%): 133.51
Open to requests for other symbols.
URI
#ShortPuts – Down after earnings so selling at recent lows. Starter position giving it room out to Sep.
Sold URI SEP 20 2019 110.0 Put @ 2.55
NFLX
Roll $NFLX 7/19/2019 330/340 #bups for 330/340 8/16/2019 @-1.00. Ouch but not as much ouch as letting this expire ITM.
Options Bistro 