Netflix EPS beats by $0.42, revenue in-line
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.47 beats by $0.42.
Revenue of $5.25B (+31.3% Y/Y) in-line.
Global streaming paid memberships 158.33M (+21.4% Y/Y), net addition 6.77M
Daily Archives: Wednesday, October 16, 2019
MTN BUPS Closed
#bups
$MTN BTC 10/18 220/230 at 1.70. STO at 3.50
Upside Warning
#VIXindicator An inside day on the VIX chart is the third close below 15.05 in a row, meaning an Upside Warning is in effect. Look for higher prices in the coming days. I’m proceeding cautiously after last month’s headfake. I only have one bullish trade (put spread sold this morning).
Expiring today: $SPX Oct 16th 2945/2955-3030/3040 condors sold yesterday for .45.
MEI
BTC 10/18/2019 35 calls @0.08. Stock is at 34.05.
#earnings NFLX #tastytradefollow #callbutterfly Sold…
#earnings NFLX
#tastytradefollow #callbutterfly
Sold Oct. 18, 300/310/310/325 for 1.25
URI
#ShortPuts – Not really an earnings trade but I’ll take a shot. Maybe add another on an implosion…
Sold URI NOV 22 2019 112.0 Put @ 2.65
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HON earnings analysis
#Earnings $HON reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2019 BO +3.11%
April 18, 2019 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
Feb. 1, 2019 BO +0.75%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -1.10% Biggest DOWN (also the ONLY down)
July 20, 2018 BO +3.78% Biggest UP (tie)
April 20, 2018 BO +1.64%
Jan. 26, 2018 BO +1.94%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.20%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.03%
April 21, 2017 BO +2.67%
Jan. 27, 2017 BO +0.38%
Oct. 21, 2016 BO +0.75%
Avg (+ or -) 1.84%
Bias 1.66%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.36 to 169.64
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 160.98 to 167.02
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (3.8%): 157.80 to 170.20
Based on DOWN max only (-1.1%): 162.20
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings URI Sold Nov. 15,…
#earnings URI
Sold Nov. 15, 105/140 strangle for 2.08.
Thanks Jeff
URI dub cal
#Earnings Bought to Open $URI Oct18/Oct25 122p/123c #DoubleCalendar for 1.00. Not filled on all yet. Got one for .97 on TOS.
URI earnings analysis
#Earnings $URI reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC -7.89%
April 17, 2019 AC +8.14%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +6.29%
Oct. 17, 2018 AC -15.03% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +1.07%
April 18, 2018 AC -6.54%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -1.94%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC +0.05%
July 19, 2017 AC +3.23%
April 19, 2017 AC -5.19%
Jan. 25, 2017 AC +11.20% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +4.69%
Avg (+ or -) 5.94%
Bias -0.16%, no signoficant bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 114.43 to 131.57
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 115.70 to 130.30
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.0%): 104.51 to 141.49
Based on UP max only (+11.2%): 136.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
SHOP
#CoveredCalls – Rolling into #Earnings week…
Rolled SHOP OCT 18 2019 297.5 Call to NOV 01 2019 302.5 Call @ .70 credit
UNH
STO December 230 puts at 6.50
FDX
BTC the October 18, 150 puts at .85 which was part of an earnings trade at .88 cents. It was part of a jade lizard and am happy to be out of that one.
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
Avg (+ or -) 5.20%
Bias -0.63%, slight negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 142.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 135.06 to 148.94
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 134.61 to 149.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 129.42 to 154.58
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 131.18
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX Monday
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Oct 21st 2975/2950 put spreads for 4.90. IV: 11.44%, SPX 2990. Bullish positioning following both trend and #VIXindicator.
#earnings #closing GS UAL GS…
NFLX dub cal
#Earnings Bought to open $NFLX Oct18/Oct25 285 #DoubleCalendar for 1.37. This stock has typically been too volatile after earnings to be appropriate for this strategy. But two things: NFLX post-earnings moves have quieted in the last couple years, and the Dub-Cals perform well with higher priced stocks.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 7.16%
Bias 2.99%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 285.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 257.13 to 312.87
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.61 to 305.39
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 230.79 to 339.21
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 255.73
Open to requests for other symbols.
Options Bistro 