These probably would have expired but in this market who knows what could happen in the next 3 days. Options were in the money just a few trading days ago so taking off for most of the profit a few days early.
Bought to close $TWTR Oct 19 27 puts @ .04. Sold for .61 on 9/6.
Monthly Archives: October 2018
BOIL Dec
Sold $BOIL Dec 21 50 call @ 1.50. Highest strike.
NFLX call spread
Sold $NFLX Nov 16 400/410 BeCS @ 2.00
And another Boom… NFLX
#Earnings This may bode well for the market if NFLX is going to gap this high.
Correction Data
#VIXindicator Looking back at all 54 Downside Warnings gives us some data to view our current correction. Below are three charts with the Average Move down on each day of the correction. (I omitted the black swan 2008 financial crisis).
Day 1 is the day the Downside Warning fired (at the close). The percentages are how far the LOW of the day on $SPX has moved, as measured from the CLOSE of the day before the warning. So in the current correction (in color), which fired on Oct 5, the day 1 move of -1.1% is the low on Oct 5th, measured from the close on Oct 4th. Day 2 is the low on Monday the 8th, and so on.
The first chart includes all 54 corrections. The first three days include all 54, but the 4th day is an average of 53 corrections, since one was only three days long and drops off the list. This only goes to 23 days… the longest correction lasted 165 days. The data here says we are above average so far.
Considering the current correction is now 8 days long, I created the second chart, which looks at only those corrections that lasted between 9 and 19 days. The data here says we are above average for short corrections, so this one may end up being a little longer.
And the third chart is those corrections that were in the 4-8% range on days 4-7, just like our current one. This data suggests we may stay in the current range (down 5% or so) for several days to come).
Or it all may mean nothing! But it’s fun to geek out occasionally.
Boom
Panic buying into the close!
All of my long #Pre-Earnings trades (except CAT) are back on the map today, although definitely still weak. $VALE and $AMZN are best, at breakeven…. and that’s with VALE being the only underlying that is NOT up today.
SPX Chart
as expected, SPX bottomed at my Fib K level…and Bounced from there..I exited both my nov short 2650 puts a while ago, for a 50% gain, as ES put in a intraday hi…chart attached….
LAST TRADE: 3 days to expiration.
ROKU STO 10/19/18 60.0 PUTS @.68
#earnings #ironcondor NFLX Sold Nov….
#earnings #ironcondor NFLX
Sold Nov. 16, 265/270/400/405 for 1.01, it was either that or the short straddle for $4,375 heh heh
NFLX earnings play
Betting NFLX will stay between 300 and 400 after ER today.
BOT NFLX double calendar Oct19/Oct26 -342.5c/-342.5p/+342.5c/+342.5p @ 3.15
#shortputs ANET @ramie77-a good day…
#shortputs ANET
@ramie77-a good day for your ANET trades
GWW put spread
Downward momentum slowing after the big post-earnings move down this morning. Going the other way looking for more stabilization/a bounce and contracting volatility.
Sold $GWW Nov 16 250/240 BuPS @ 1.30 credit.
First time looking at the…
First time looking at the market today. That is what a short covering rally should look like 🙂
CAT scratch fever
#PreEarnings It’s feverish of me to add to such a dog, but it actually lowers my cost basis to .567, which I think gives this a good shot at breaking even. Plus, it only costs me scratch.
Bought $CAT Oct 26th 165 calls for .06, adding to my position.
#shortcalls #closing UVXY October 12,…
#shortcalls #closing UVXY
October 12, followed Jeff and sold a Jan. 95 call for 7.45, bought today on the market rally for 4.64. Thanks Jeff.
SQ long
#LongLEAPs I sold my stock and Jan 2019 60 calls on the 5th, when $SQ was at 94.50. Man, what a drop! Now looking to leg in long again.
Bought to Open $SQ Jan 2020 110 call for 7.40.
Sold $SQ Oct 26th 80 call for 1.50.
I play this one a bit differently than @fuzzballl, going fairly far OTM rather than ATM. SQ topped out at 101.15 on Oct 1st, and this LEAP was going for 19.00 and higher.
A TRADE: Earnings run?
TNDM BTO STOCK @37.96 Watched it creep up from 37.08.
TQQQ
Rolled the November 16, 75 calls down to the October 26, 57 calls for a credit of 3.45
TRADE:
ESPR BTC 10/19/18 50.0 CALLS at a small profit. Stock is up over 3 points. Didn’t roll out. Earnings next week. Something going on?
IBM earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $IBM earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 18, 2018 AC 3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC 8.86%
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC 2.24%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC -2.61%
July 18, 2016 AC -0.17%
April 18, 2016 AC -5.59%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -4.87%
Oct. 19, 2015 AC -5.74%
With stock at 142.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 135.23 to 148.77
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 135.61 to 148.39
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 129.42 to 154.58
NFLX earnings data
#Earnings Below are details on $NFLX earnings 1-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC 9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC 9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC 13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC 3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC 19.02%
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12%
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Oct. 14, 2015 AC -8.29%
With stock at 333.00, the data suggests these ranges.
Based on current IV (expected move per TOS): 299.36 to 355.64
Based on Average move over last 12 quarters: 305.38 to 360.62
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s: 269.66 to 396.34
Closing some TSLA
Bought to close:
$TSLA Nov 16 80 puts @ .44. Sold for 1.13 on 9/28.
$TSLA Nov 16 120/385 strangles @ 1.75. Sold for 3.72 on 9/28.
AMAT
#LongCalls #LEAPS – I sold this one but forgot about possible earnings. This company is pretty reliable with their dates so taking this one off and will re-sell after they announce the date.
Bought to Close AMAT NOV 16 2018 37.0 Calls @ .55 (sold for .54)
PYPL
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This one was sold in earnings week. The big drop is letting me out so taking it off with partial profit. I’ll look to possibly sell again prior to the announcement.
Bought to Close PYPL OCT 19 2018 85.0 Calls @ .32 (sold for .72)
TWLO
#ShortStrangles – Dropping slightly with news of some buyout. Taking a shot at a little strangle in the week prior to earnings.
Sold TWLO NOV 2 2018 60.0/80.0 Strangles @ 2.06
Good morning
#Earnings looking good for financials, lifting futures.
Not much
Sat on my hands today… I don’t know whether to short or go long… need another day!
#ContangoETFs
BTC $DUST Nov 16th 49 call for .25. Sold for 2.50 on Aug 15th.
BTC $DUST March 15th 60 call for .80. Sold for 3.00 on Aug 16th.
Bought to Open $UVXY Nov 9th 112 call for 1.30. A hedge against short calls. I’d rather be selling it, but gotta stay safe!
#earnings #shortstraddle CREE Sold Nov….
#earnings #shortstraddle CREE
Sold Nov. 15, 35 straddle for 4.49.
#earnings #longput MS bought Oct….
TQQQ
BTC October 19, 66.5 calls for .02 and sold October 26, 57 calls for 2.93 against my 2021 60 calls that I am long.
UVXY
Oil trades
Taking some profits out of /cl and freeing up margin.
60 DTE 58/91 strangle BTC for 0.25. Had been sold for 0.42 but I rolled the put side down costing 900 so profit was $150 in less than 2 weeks.
30 DTE 60/84.5 stragles BTC for 0.18 sold for 0.22.
So made back my losses earlier in the year and am now + on /CL for the year by $200. Hey at least it is positive.
But here is something to think about. I re-read sections of the option sellers book, they mostly focus on selling futures options and they had 56% returns last year verified. Most years they do 40-50% and a lot less trading than most of us. They like to start ladders 90 DTE and each month add new rung.
The premiums are huge on futures. The issue is not a lot of weeklies and harder to roll. But looking at oil today the 93 DTE 58/87 or roughly delta 7-8 options. Can be sold today for 0.72 credit. Oil is $10 per 1c move per contract. So a 10 lot is $100 per 1 cent move.
Anyway at 60 DTE it has already decayed to 0.50-0.53 by 60 and 0.12 at 30 DTE. So the largest drop occurs from 60 to 30 days but the drop from 90 to 60 days is not chump change. Also can be farther OTM which usually requires less adjusting. So a 10 lot would bring in $7200 cash minus commisions and could buy it back roughly 28 days later for $5300.
At 60 days the options are roughly delta 5s and by 30 they are down to 2.
I am starting to look at this again but only for regular accounts with margin. Will not let you touch futures options in IRA etc.
I may put a 1-2 lot on /CL 93 DTE today just to watch it happen in real time.
REGN
#ShortCalls – One small sale against some put spreads. Looking to add one more on a bounce and staying just prior to earnings. Other than that, a slow day.
Sold REGN NOV 2 2018 410.0 Call @ 2.50
GPC pre-earnings
Pre-ER. Bot GPC Oct19 40 delta strangle 97c/94.5p @ 2.65 x1. GTC order to close @ 3.40 for 40% profit.
A TRADE:
ESPR STO 10/19/18 45.0 CALL @3.00 Earnings 11/6/18
A TRADE:
ROKU BTO STOCK 61.5
Moving #fuzzy around. MU has…
Moving #fuzzy around.
MU has been a dog. Way below original strikes. 2021 LEAPs are out so first I attempted to roll out the Nov. 15 50 call out to Dec which brought in 0.55 credit.
Then rolled my long 55 LEAP 2020 out to 2021 and down from 55 to 40 for debit of 8.35. So I gained 15 points of down side for only 8.35 and another year to manage.
Then I did not like the 50 calls so I rolled them down and closer, 45 strike 32 DTE for 0.19 credit.
After all that My new cost basis is 16.28 and have 823 days to manage. So only need 0.13 per week to scratch it to zero.
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle YELP August…
#earnings #closing #shortstraddle YELP
August 8, I sold a Sept. 38 straddle for earnings for 5.80. YELP went up over 50. Sept. 19 I rolled the call to November. The put expired and I sold an Oct. 45 put. YELP has been coming down, closed the put for a small gain, the call is getting close but so are the next earnings.
Good morning!
The stock market looks like it is due for much more pain, even as it teases with comeback rallies https://t.co/YI4cKTPBsr
— CNBC (@CNBC) October 15, 2018
Alas to lophirs
Although it pains me, I must step back from calling lophirs a safe trade. The max risk against potential reward is simply too high when volatility is elevated. So back to MamaCash basics for me.
Don’t risk more than 1% of account value on any single trade.
Map trades to my market mindset of long, choppy, or short. This year has really been a chop fest. Volatility tells it all.
NEVER assume that the markets can’t or won’t spike or drop to blow out your account.
I will survive but not especially proud of taking a big hit on my accounts after securing great profits for the year. I hope the rest of you are not learning the same lessons I am.:-) I will post when I finally close the trades I put on a couple weeks ago but for now, active management continues.
Hopefully the VIX stays up…
Hopefully the VIX stays up while the market stabilizes. Good premiums, I see some good #pietrades (back to weeklies) if I can unwind a few positions or generate some cash on rolls.
Have a nice weekend to everyone.
No expirations
#longstrangle EWZ Just in case…
#longstrangle EWZ
Just in case bought Nov. 16, 45 call for .06, bought Nov. 16, 27.50 put for .05, closed other EWZ short calls and puts.
EWZ TNA
#ShortPuts #IRA – Booking 40 percent of an EWZ position to make room for an aggressive TNA position.
Bought to Close EWZ DEC 21 2018 30.0 Puts @ .34 (sold for 2.02)
Sold TNA DEC 21 2018 70.0 Put @ 8.40
T2108 now below 10
At 9.84.
It got to 8.60 on 2/9/18.
JPM post-earnings
I don’t know. It feels like a good idea to own a bank like JPM in a rising interest rate environment, after an over 10% pullback from its recent highs, at what would be 12 month lows and a 3+% dividend.
Sold a ladder:
$JPM Nov 16 100 puts @ 1.36
$JPM Dec 21 95 puts @ 1.25
UVXY STO UVXY Jan18’19 112…
UVXY
STO UVXY Jan18’19 112 CALL $7.20
#shortstock My only experience being…
#shortstock
My only experience being short shares of stock was being assigned a few times, and a couple of those worked out, a couple didn’t. I’ve been watching TastyTrades permabear (thanks fuzzball) Tim Knight and decided to start trying some trades on the short side. I’m no chartist and I’ve been interpreting his interpretations. Like all of the prognosticators, he isn’t always right but I’ve had some success. I haven’t posted because I haven’t known what I was doing. So far, no losers( a couple slightly underwater) and just about everything has been $50- $100 gains. Here is what I have done on the short side, and a few short call spreads and long puts have worked as well. Still have a steep learning curve.
I sold 100 shares of the named stock on the first date, and bought to close (cover) on the 2nd date, reading across.
Aug. 27 DENN covered Aug. 21
Aug. 28 RDN covered Sept. 26
Aug. 31 PIR covered Sept. 11 (don’t short $1.80 stocks)
Sept. 5 DVN covered Sept. 6
Sept. 5 BNS covered covered Oct. 10
Sept. 6 DBC still in
Sept. 7 AXS covered Sept. 11
Sept. 10 MRO still in
Sept. 14 DVN covered Sept. 17
Sept. 20 DENN still in
Sept. 25 MU covered Oct. 4
Oct. 2 RSX covered Oct. 4
Oct. 4 CRUS covered Oct. 5
Oct. 4 FXI covered Oct. 8
Oct. 8 BOX covered Oct. 9
Oct. 9 BFR covered Oct. 10
Oct. 10 RSX still in
Short Call Spreads, all closed except GDX, sold close to the money.
BUD
HIG
NOC
BUD again
GDX not doing well
A TRADE:
TNDM STO 10/26/18 33.0 PUTS @2.10
Have a great and safe weekend everyone. ;>)
ANET adding
Dropping down 3 strikes/15 points from my previous sale in Jan.
Sold $ANET Jan 18 170 put @ 3.20.
TQQQ
BTO January 2021, 60 calls @ 18.00 and sold to open the October 26, 65 calls @ .45. I need less than .16 cents per week to pay for these.
Pre-Earnings losses
This has not been my finest hour with pre-earnings trades. 100% loss in both C and JPM. Cutting max position size in half for the rest of October.
T2108
Now at 10.19. It got down to 9.94 around 20 minutes ago. Let’s see what happens this afternoon.
A TRADE:
ESPR STO 10/19/18 45.0 ITM CALLS @3.80. Stock was at 45.5. Naked so far.
How high will we bounce before going negative?
Anyone got technicals on it?
Fat fingers
#LongCalls Meant to enter a trade to buy more at 1.35. But I entered “sell” instead, so was filled at the market price. Good thing SPY bid/ask is so tight..
STC $SPY Nov 16th 285 calls for 1.80. Bought for 2.71 yesterday.
To avoid day-trade issue on my smallest account, I moved down a strike.
BTO $SPY Nov 16th 284 calls for 2.15. Adding more if we flush down further today.
SMH
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Sold SMH OCT 26 2018 101.0 Calls @ .65
DUST
TRADES:
TNDM STO 10/19/18 38.0 CALLS @1.05
SFIX STO 10/19/18 23.0 PUTS @.30
ESPR BTO STOCK @46.25
LPX BTO STOCK @23.18
AMAT
#LongCalls #LEAPS – Boring but continuing to chip away at it…
Bought to Close AMAT NOV 2 2018 40.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .53)
Sold AMAT NOV 2 2018 36.0 Calls @ .40
Sold AMAT NOV 16 2018 37.0 Calls @ .54
TQQQ
I rolled a small part of my 66.67, 2020 calls out to the 67 calls in January 2021for a debit of 5.70 this morning.
TNA TQQQ
#LongCalls #LEAPS – This is probably as good a time as any to take starter positions in these. I think I can recover a good chunk of the cost selling down here while the chart recovers. Hopefully a grind around below resistance for a few weeks. LEAPS out to 2021 so these should be good in the long run.
Bought TNA JAN 15 2021 70.0 Calls @ 18.25
Sold TNA OCT 19 2018 70.0 Calls @ 1.68
Bought TQQQ JAN 15 2021 60.0 Calls @ 19.00
Sold TQQQ OCT 26 2018 60.0 Calls @ 1.70
OLED
#ShortCalls – Bought to Close OLED OCT 19 2018 130.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 2.05)
WTW
#CoveredCalls – Did pretty good overall in containing my whipsaw risk. Only problem is the big recovery in WTW. I got a little too aggressive yesterday selling the next batch of covered calls to help with downside protection. I sure didn’t see this kind of bounce coming.
Covering the overwriting now strictly for risk protection in the event rally mode continues next week…
Bought to Close WTW OCT 12 2018 68.0 Calls @ .25 (sold for 1.89)
#shortputs #fallingknife (kind of) SQ…
#shortputs #fallingknife (kind of) SQ
I suppose most stocks have been falling knife candidates all week so I use the term loosely.
Sold Nov. 2, 60 put for .89, earnings should be Nov. 7.
Econ Calendar for week of 10/15/18
I’m going to start posting this on the Friday before, rather than Monday morning. Note that this calendar is always available immediately in the menu at the top of the Bistro page.
Link to calendar website: http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=mam
AMZN and UVXY
#PreEarnings Bought $AMZN 1890/1900 long call spreads for 3.20. AMZN dropped 300 points in 8 trading days. I think it can raise 110 from here in 14 days.
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Jan 2019 95 call for 6.90.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Closed on GTC order: $SPX Oct 19th 2935/2960 call spreads for .15. Sold for 2.90 on Monday.
#shortputspread #closing AMZN bought put…
#shortputspread #closing AMZN
bought put spreads for .23, sold yesterday for .63.
Added to VIX trade
Bought $VIX Oct 30th 16 puts for 1.25, adding to my position.
Tools of the trade
#PreEarnings Added final batch to $SWK Oct 26th 140 calls for 1.65. I was early, much cheaper now.
#earnings #ironbutterfly #closing JPM sold…
#earnings #ironbutterfly #closing JPM
sold yesterday for 4.16, bought this morning for 3.15.
Historical largest VIX spikes…
AMAT DG DUST OLED PYPL SMH TLT UVXY
#LongCalls #LongPuts #LEAPS #VXXGame – In and out all day but manged to squeeze in a few trades….
AMAT: Added last of the long LEAPS reducing basis.
Bought to Close AMAT OCT 26 2018 41.0 Calls @ .02 (sold for .43)
Bought AMAT JAN 17 2020 50.0 Calls @ 1.15
DG:
Bought to Close DG OCT 19 2018 112.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .65)
Sold DG NOV 2 2018 108.0 Calls @ .85
DUST: Nice drop today. Luckily ratio’d at 2×7. Rolling the short puts down and out. Long puts working nicely.
Rolled DUST OCT 12 2018 37.0 Put to DUST NOV 16 2018 35.0 Put @ even
OLED:
Sold OLED OCT 26 2018 120.0 Call @ 1.20
PYPL:
Sold PYPL OCT 26 2018 82.0 Calls @ .94
SMH:
Bought to Close SMH OCT 26 2018 108.0 Calls @ .06 (sold for .95)
TLT: Getting out of the way a little with my triple size position. One winner one loser with a net winner.
Bought to Close TLT NOV 2 2018 118.0 Calls @ .15 (sold for .44) .29 gain
Bought to Close TLT NOV 9 2018 116.5 Calls @ .64(sold for .47) .17 loss
UVXY: Haven’t sold these naked very often since Aug 2015 🙂 Sometimes it’s too good to pass up.
Sold UVXY DEC 21 2018 95.0 Call @ 8.25
Long a strangle
I ended up legging into a long SPY strangle, playing for opening gap or big move in either direction tomorrow.
Previously, BTO $SPY Oct 12th 270 puts for 1.55
Just now, BTO 276 calls for 1.04
Options Bistro 