Jeff 7:11 am on Thursday, November 21, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalemdar ( 3 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

INTU earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $INTU reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 22, 2019 AC +1.09%
May 23, 2019 AC +6.70%
Feb. 21, 2019 AC +6.76% Biggest UP
Nov. 19, 2018 AC -2.03%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +1.96%
May 22, 2018 AC +2.98%
Feb. 22, 2018 AC -0.18%
Nov. 20, 2017 AC -3.79% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 22, 2017 AC -1.90%
May 23, 2017 AC +6.72%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC +6.05%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +1.91%

Avg (+ or -) 3.51%
Bias 2.19%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 272.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 262.33 to 282.67
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 262.95 to 282.05
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.8%): 254.08 to 290.92
Based on DOWN max only (-3.8%): 262.17

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalemdar

fuzzballl 7:03 am on Thursday, November 21, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

SOXL

#ShortPuts – Back in one of my favorites. Selling well below the 50ma and down near the 200ma. Just going 29 days out…

Sold SOXL DEC 20 2019 165.0 Put @ 3.00

Jeff 7:02 am on Thursday, November 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

SPLK earnings analysis

#Earnings $SPLK reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 21, 2019 AC -7.83% Biggest DOWN
May 23, 2019 AC -7.32%
Feb. 28, 2019 AC -0.90%
Nov. 29, 2018 AC +9.93%
Aug. 23, 2018 AC +14.81%
May 24, 2018 AC -5.20%
March 1, 2018 AC +9.26%
Nov. 16, 2017 AC +17.89% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 AC +8.47%
May 25, 2017 AC -6.97%
Feb. 23, 2017 AC -3.23%
Nov. 29, 2016 AC +0.41%

Avg (+ or -) 7.69%
Bias 2.44%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 127.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 117.04 to 136.96
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 117.24 to 136.76
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.9%): 104.28 to 149.72
Based on DOWN max only (-7.8%): 117.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 7:00 am on Thursday, November 21, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

NTES Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Booking now and not taking any chances…

Bought to Close NTES NOV 22 2019 267.5 Put @ .10 (sold for 3.20)

geewhiz112 3:51 pm on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 )

TGT Closed

#bups
$TGT BTC 12/20/100/105 BUPS at .05 on earnings surprise. STO at 1.45 Thank you @ramie77

smasty 1:12 pm on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: SueCollar ( 10 )

#SueCollar TGT One of the…

#SueCollar TGT

One of the collars I had set up was on TGT, which of course had earnings today. The original stock purchase was at $111.84, and after a roll last week, was protected down to around $96. It’s really run away to the upside. There is plenty of premium in the position still, especially since the Dec13 short 96 puts have become very illiquid. It looks to me that the 300 share position will net out around $503 in profit (including the dividend) by the Dec 13 expiration, a hold of about 2 months. This would equate to roughly an 8% annualized return….right in my target. The ROR is huge given the risk controls in this strategy.

A couple comments on this:
1. TGT is an interesting hold for this strategy due to their dividend timing. Since the ex div is the day before earnings, it is really hard to lose shares to someone wanting to take the dividend—since the short calls retain such high premium the day before earnings.
2. This is a perfect example of having to stay focused on a low-risk/low-return strategy. If the loss of the put premium is too much to bear, it’s the wrong strategy for you (you might be saying “coulda woulda shoulda made $4600 just holding shares vs $503 on the collar”). I get it, it’s valid. But I really appreciate the controlled risk on these things, the easy sleep at night.

On a side note, since I’ve been training intensely on vol for a couple years at Option Pit, I decided there needs to be more vol strategy folded into the collars. I’m now trying to keep the vol spread at less than 3 points between the calls being sold and the puts being bought. To accomplish this the calls need to be sold ITM, vs ATM. ITM calls have a higher vol to counter the higher vol of OTM puts.

Let me know if there’s any interest in this going forward–I get if it’s too boring 🙂

Sue

Jeff 11:10 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX stopped

#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX Nov 20th 3095/3075 put spreads for 1.60. Condors sold yesterday for .95. Fortunately got a bounce from the lows, but not risking another plunge.

I will let call side expire.

thomberg1201 10:51 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

#earnings #jadelizard M Sold Dec….

#earnings #jadelizard M

Sold Dec. 20, 15/15.50/16.50 for 1.15.
I’m long 105 shares from assignment a long time ago with a cost basis in the 30s. Will add a couple long puts to protect that horrid position.

jdietz1954 10:47 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019

SPX BuPS Stopped on breach…

SPX BuPS Stopped on breach of 3095. Ouch. I sure seem able to NOT pick ’em.

Jeff 10:04 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Trade again

I think these two tweets together sum up the ridiculousness of trading off trade-deal headlines.

Jeff 9:07 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

M earnings analysis

#Earnings $M reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 14, 2019 BO -13.22%
May 15, 2019 BO -0.45%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO +1.47%
Nov. 14, 2018 BO -7.18%
Aug. 15, 2018 BO -15.94%
May 16, 2018 BO +10.82%
Feb. 27, 2018 BO +3.46%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +10.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -10.24%
May 11, 2017 BO -17.00% Biggest DOWN
Feb. 21, 2017 BO -0.03%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +5.60%

Avg (+ or -) 8.03%
Bias -2.64%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 15.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 13.39 to 17.01
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 13.98 to 16.42
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.0%): 12.62 to 17.78
Based on UP max only (+11.0%): 16.87

Open to requests for other symbols.

Jeff 8:58 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

NTES earnings analysis

#Earnings $NTES reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 7, 2019 AC +10.26%
May 15, 2019 AC +6.51%
Feb. 20, 2019 AC -5.88%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.31%
Aug. 8, 2018 AC -10.96% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2018 AC -7.45%
Feb. 7, 2018 AC -6.27%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +7.85%
Aug. 9, 2017 AC -9.77%
May 10, 2017 AC -0.82%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +14.08% Biggest UP
Nov. 9, 2016 AC -9.22%

Avg (+ or -) 7.87%
Bias -0.53%, small negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 287.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 266.37 to 308.63
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 264.89 to 310.11
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (14.1%): 247.02 to 327.98
Based on DOWN max only (-11.0%): 255.99

Open to requests for other symbols.

thomberg1201 8:41 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: callratiospread ( 4 ), tastytradefollow ( 88 )

#callratiospread ROKU #tastytradefollow Sold a…

#callratiospread ROKU

#tastytradefollow Sold a Dec. 20, +180/-195/-195 ratio spread for .26.

fuzzballl 7:15 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 )

ULTA

#CoveredCalls – This week looks safe so throwing next week out there. Earnings the following week.

Sold ULTA NOV 29 2019 242.5 Call @ 2.00

fuzzballl 7:14 am on Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Tags: BearCallSpreads ( 123 )

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Adding one more…

Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spread @ 1.60

fuzzballl 12:13 pm on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

EWZ

#ShortPuts – Adding at a slightly higher strike from my starter position…

Sold EWZ DEC 20 2019 40.5 Puts @ .93

Ramie 12:06 pm on Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Closing TGT

With earnings tomorrow morning, I took a small profit on the $TGT 12/20 105/100 bull put spread. Bought to close @ 1.19. Sold for 1.46 on 11/4.

Jeff 11:46 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 3075/3095-3140/3160 condors for .95, IV: 7.44%, SPX 3124.

fuzzballl 10:38 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

XBI

#ShortPuts – Not a single chance to add beyond the starter position. Almost straight up since the sale…

Bought to Close XBI DEC 20 2019 75.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 1.93)

jsd501 10:29 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019

EXAS

BTO January 17, 85/97.5 call spread at 4.30
STO January 17, 75 puts at 2.60

thomberg1201 10:06 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing QCOM Nov. 6…

#earnings #closing QCOM

Nov. 6 sold 72.50/95 strangle for 1.22, bought today for .79.

Jeff 10:06 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

TGT earnings analysis

#Earnings $TGT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 21, 2019 BO +20.42% Biggest UP
May 22, 2019 BO +7.78%
March 5, 2019 BO +4.58%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -11.26%
Aug. 22, 2018 BO +3.20%
May 23, 2018 BO -5.69%
March 6, 2018 BO -4.45%
Nov. 15, 2017 BO -9.86%
Aug. 16, 2017 BO +3.60%
May 17, 2017 BO +0.93%
Feb. 28, 2017 BO -12.16% Biggest DOWN
Nov. 16, 2016 BO +6.42%

Avg (+ or -) 7.53%
Bias 0.29%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 110.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 102.31 to 117.69
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 101.72 to 118.28
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (20.4%): 87.54 to 132.46
Based on UP max only (-12.2%): 96.62

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 7:55 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

NTES Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – Earnings not until tomorrow night but with a little pullback today setting my position now. Selling well below the 50ma and close to the 200ma.

Sold NTES NOV 22 2019 267.5 Put @ 3.20

fuzzballl 7:35 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: BearCallSpreads ( 123 )

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Adding to previous sale…

Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.40

fuzzballl 7:15 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Tags: BearCallSpreads ( 123 )

DRIP

#BearCallSpreads – Easing back into this one with a small starter…

Sold DRIP JAN 17 2020 120.0/130.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.20

jsd501 7:07 am on Tuesday, November 19, 2019

LK and SBUX

I am puting on another small arbitrage.

LK, BTO 28.50 cals @ 2.10 for December 20 and SBUX, BTO the 84 puts at 1.65 for about the same dollar amount. LK is the new coffee shop in China and the chart on SBUX has turned down with the 10,20,and 50 below the 150.

Ramie 3:41 pm on Monday, November 18, 2019

Closed CMG

Just catching up on trades. Filled on this closing order: Bought to close $CMG 12/20 700/690 bull put spread @ .79. Sold for 1.80 on 11/11.

Jeff 12:10 pm on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

Adding more VIX

#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX Feb 18th 19/22 call spreads for .60. Added to the Jan 21st 17/20 already holding.

jsd501 11:56 am on Monday, November 18, 2019

FB

BTO December 20, 200/210 bull call spread at 3.30 and sold the December 27, 190 put at 2.86

thomberg1201 10:43 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), IronCondor ( 244 ), JadeLizard ( 130 ), ShortStrangles ( 716 )

#earnings HD #jadelizard #ironcondor This…

#earnings HD KSS

#jadelizard #ironcondor #shortstrangles

HD This is a jade lizard set up with a protective put, making it an iron condor
HD Sold Dec. 20, 210/225/240/242.50 for 2.60
KSS sold Dec. 20, 50/65 strangle for 1.65

Thanks for the data Jeff

geewhiz112 10:07 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), CoveredCalls ( 2,201 )

LABU Calls Rolled / GOOGL BUPS

#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 12/6 42 call and STO 12/20 45 for .35 debit. My basis is now 41.35. Stock at 41.72.

#bups
$GOOGL STO 11/22 1280/1290 BUPS at .95

Jeff 9:02 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

KSS earnings analysis

#Earnings $KSS reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 20, 2019 BO -6.88%
May 21, 2019 BO -12.33% Biggest DOWN
March 5, 2019 BO +7.31%
Nov. 20, 2018 BO -9.22%
Aug. 21, 2018 BO +1.71%
May 22, 2018 BO -7.42%
March 1, 2018 BO -5.05%
Nov. 9, 2017 BO +0.93%
Aug. 10, 2017 BO -5.79%
May 11, 2017 BO -7.83%
Feb. 23, 2017 BO -2.08%
Nov. 10, 2016 BO +11.53% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 6.51%
Bias -2.93%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 58.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 53.70 to 63.30
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 54.69 to 62.31
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.3%): 51.29 to 65.71
Based on UP max only (+11.5%): 65.25

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 7:29 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: ShortCalls ( 979 )

UVXY

#ShortCalls – Nicely profitable stops set on my other naked positions so starting another one…

Sold UVXY DEC 13 2019 20.0 Calls @ .72

thomberg1201 7:25 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: Assignment ( 174 )

#assignment SBUX September 3, I…

#assignment SBUX
September 3, I sold a 92.50.95 put ratio spread. That date coincided with a decline in SBUX stock price to the low 80s. After a few adjustments I was assigned on a Dec. 20, 92.50 put. My cost basis 87.97 (haven’t done a very good job adjusting this). Today I sold a Nov. 22, 84.50 call for .33.
I don’t even drink coffee.

fuzzballl 7:24 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

TNA

#ShortPuts – All stock called away over the weekend so starting a brand new position. Selling at the expected move and below the 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Sold TNA DEC 20 2019 57.5 Puts @ 1.55

Jeff 6:38 am on Monday, November 18, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

HD earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $HD reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 20, 2019 BO +4.39% Biggest UP
May 21, 2019 BO +0.26%
Feb. 26, 2019 BO -0.88%
Nov. 13, 2018 BO -0.23%
Aug. 14, 2018 BO -0.53%
May 15, 2018 BO -1.62%
Feb. 20, 2018 BO -0.13%
Nov. 14, 2017 BO +1.63%
Aug. 15, 2017 BO -2.65% Biggest DOWN
May 16, 2017 BO +0.59%
Feb. 21, 2017 BO +1.41%
Nov. 15, 2016 BO -2.56%

Avg (+ or -) 1.41%
Bias -0.03%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 237.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 229.57 to 245.43
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 234.16 to 240.84
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (4.4%): 227.07 to 247.93
Based on DOWN max only (-2.7%): 231.21

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar

Lesserweavil 1:13 pm on Friday, November 15, 2019

Expiration

OX $OSTK Nov 15 15 Calls (covered) – STO 10/21 @.30. Very under water on the underlying.

geewhiz112 1:07 pm on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: OptionsExpiration ( 794 )

Expirations

#optionsexpiration
$PEP 135/140 BUCS Total Loss. BTO at 2.50
And the good:
$VEEV 140/145 BUPS STO 1.45 on 9/26
$ROKU 100/110 BUPS STO 1.95 0n 10/16
$BA 320/330 BUPS STO at 1.80 on 10/23 Thank you @Ramie
$SOXL 150 Put STO at 4.50
$TOL 42 call STO at .63
$TRTN 35 covered straddle. Stock called away with basis of 30.65

Have a nice weekend.

geewhiz112 12:47 pm on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 )

Rolled ZM

#coveredcalls
$ZM BTC 11/29 70 calls and STO 12/6 72 calls at 1.25 added credit. Stock currently at $70, up 2.25 for the day. Earnings 12/7

Ramie 12:07 pm on Friday, November 15, 2019

Closing CRWD

Bought to close $CRWD 12/20 42.50 puts @ .70. Sold for 1.55 on 11/13.

MikeL 12:07 pm on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

Is this a good time…

Is this a good time to start buying VXX calls? 🙂

#vxxgame

Jeff 11:49 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte I’m legging in as I feel the index may continue higher into the close.

Sold $SPX Nov 18th 3085/3065 put spreads for .55. IV 5.98%, SPX 3115.

Will look to sell call side on a spike higher, or perhaps skip it since IV and premium is so low.

Ramie 11:21 am on Friday, November 15, 2019

NVDA post-earnings

Sold $NVDA 12/20 200 put @ 5.65 with the stock at 205. Looking to potentially acquire some stock for a longer term hold.

Jeff 11:00 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

Closed CSCO to avoid assignment

#Earnings Closed put side of $CSCO Nov15/Nov22 48.5 #DoubleCalendar for .00 on TOS, for a .01 debit on IB. The short calls will expire, long calls a lottery ticket for next week.

fuzzballl 10:39 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 )

ULTA

#CoveredCalls – Rolling out and up to next week. Paying a small debit but picking up 5 points. Should get one more roll before earnings…

Rolled ULTA NOV 15 2019 242.5 Call to NOV 22 2019 247.5 Call @ .20 debit

Jeff 10:22 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: FOMC ( 20 )

Econ Calendar for week of 11/18/19

#FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2pm ET

Link to Calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=18&month=11&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0

Lesserweavil 10:08 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: BECS ( 60 ), BUPS ( 400 )

ISRG NVDA PTON

BTC $ISRG 525/535 #BuPS @0.25. Was STO 11/8 @1.25.

BTC $NVDA 225/235 Nov 29 #BeCS @0.4. Originally STO as 220/230 Oct 17@1.10, rolled 11/14 @-0.20.
OX $NVDA Nov 15 180/190 11/15 #BuPS. Was STO 11/5@1.05. (unless things tank this afternoon)
STO $NVDA 180/190 Dec 20 #BuPS @1.65.

From Yesterday, following Jeff’s Butterfly: BTO $NVDA Nov 15 +210c/-212.5c/-217.5c/+220 Condor @-0.45
Today: BTC $NVDA Nov 15 212.5c @0.18 Gain of (5.27 – 0.18) = +5.09
BTC $NVDA Nov 15 217.5c @0.08 Gain of (3.2 – 0.08) = +3.12
STC $NVDA Nov 15 220c @0.06 Loss of (2.4-0.06) = – 2.34
Rolled the $NVDA 210c into a Dec 20 230/240 #BeCS @+0.90 with 6.52-0.2 = 6.32 loss realized, so far, on the 210c.
All of which just about adds up to hopefully, the Call spread expires worthless and covers brokerage fees.

Rolled $PTON 27 Nov 15 27 Calls (covered) // Nov 22 28 Calls @+0.30, with $PTON @~27.6. Underlying was BTO at 27 on the day of IPO. May have jumped too early, as its pulled back under $27 again today.
Rolled Up/Out $PTON Nov 15 26 long puts // Nov 22 27 long puts @0.85.

hcgdavis 9:27 am on Friday, November 15, 2019

FOMO, irrational exuberance, when are…

FOMO, irrational exuberance, when are people going to learn buy low sell high or short high and buy low. Everyone piling in when the market is more expensive than it has ever been………

Bloomberg had something on the other day that said the smart money is already positioning for a pull back for what it is worth. But I am not going short until it is established.

Whats the famous quote, the market can be irrational longer than I can be solvent 🙂

Jeff 8:00 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: VXXGame ( 769 )

More VXX closed

#VXXgame Sold to close $VXX Jan 17th 20 puts for 3.50. Bought between Jan 22 and Aug 27 for avg price of 1.30. Sold four batches so far at 2.65, 3.00, 3.25, and 3.50.

Still holding a final batch. Going for 4.00.

anachronisti 7:24 am on Friday, November 15, 2019

Update on week’s trades

Closed out $X $13.50 puts expiring today at $24 loss. Didn’t want to commit $2700 in capital for an unknown amount of time to break even.

$AGRX is down 30% this morning on news that Twirla review will be extended 90 days. Unrealized loss is only $2.00 right now, and I picked up an additional June $2.5 Call at $0.75. Planned on holding through Jan anyways so no change in plans.

$ADMP still holding, no word from FDA yet on their Naloxone high dose drug.

Have a good weekend!

fuzzballl 7:14 am on Friday, November 15, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 ), Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

ISRG NVDA RTN TNA

#CoveredCalls #Earnings #ShortPuts – Not much left to do this week…

ISRG: Booking it a week early.
Bought to Close ISRG NOV 22 2019 530.0 Put @ .40 (sold for 5.50)

NVDA: Booking the earnings and selling a new one on the dip.
Bought to Close NVDA NOV 15 2019 200.0 Put @ .14 (sold for 3.35)
Sold NVDA DEC 20 2019 190.0 Put @ 2.60 (early on this one)

RTN: Long time stock position going away
Stock called away at 185.0 (basis 182.90)

TNA: Long time stock position going away.
Stock called away at 54.50 (basis 41.30)

Ramie 7:05 am on Friday, November 15, 2019

DIS covered calls

Sold $DIS 12/20 155 calls @ .99. Covered by long stock. Delta 20/stock currently at 145.74.

anachronisti 1:35 pm on Thursday, November 14, 2019

TastyWorks trading challenge

Apologies in advance if this was already discussed previously. Didn’t know how many of you traded on TastyWorks– I finally read up a bit on their trading challenge and took a leap this morning. They give you $5,000.00 in capital to paper trade Stocks and ETFs only for two trading sessions, and any gains you make up to $250.00 are added to your individual account as soon as it’s funded with $2,000.00. Any losses are ignored.

I decided to roll dice on $JD earnings tomorrow before open with 149 shares at $33.39. I have a GTC order online already at $35.25 to capture the $250.00 if it swings up at least 5.57%.

Ramie 1:01 pm on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: FallingKnife ( 963 )

CSCO long term short puts

Sold $CSCO 4/17/2020 40 puts @ 1.08 with the stock at 44.92.
#FallingKnife

Jeff 12:45 pm on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 15th 3045/3065-3120/3140 condors for .70, IV 8.62%, SPX 3096

Jeff 11:31 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), EMButterfly ( 3 )

NVDA butterfly

#Earnings Bought Nov 15th 217.5/220/222.5 call #EMButterfly for .19.

fuzzballl 10:42 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 )

SHOP

#CoveredCalls – A little roll out and up…

Rolled SHOP NOV 15 2019 295.0 Call to NOV 22 2019 297.5 Call @ .80 credit

hcgdavis 10:00 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Hedge ( 75 )

/ES/SPX/SPY #hedge Closed out the…

/ES/SPX/SPY #hedge

Closed out the /ES 2690/2700 back ratio for 300 or a $3025 loss. Just means the market did not crash.

So I have been trying to figure out a cheaper way to do these but still get the 10% coverage for a 10% down move. I came up with a modified risk twist/unbalanced butterfly. Cost about half as much as the back ratio.

BTO the Mar 2020 /ES 2790/2780/2770 butterfly. Ratio is one 2790 sold, bought three 2780 and sold one 2770 for $1690. About half the cost of the back ratio. Still good coverage and could always tweak the ratio if the market really starts to move. So this will only cost about $6800 per year instead of 12k but the deductible stays about the same.

Here is the graph and just put his on 10 minutes ago so can probably do the same. For every 100k in the account I would do 1.

geewhiz112 8:58 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: BUPS ( 400 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

ROKU BUPS / BX Puts

#bups
$ROKU STO 12/20/2019120/130 BUPS at 2.50

#shortputs
$BX STO 11/15 53.5 puts at 1.15. Building a stock position. $BX being added to the Morgan Stanley MSCI Index 11/26.

hcgdavis 8:21 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

EXPE earnings disaster

Rolled the 125 #jadelizard converted to a #fuzzy down to 95/95 strikes. Short option 15 DTE. When all cleared my cost basis is now 37.33. Need about 0.33 per week to break even and have until Jan 2022 to do it.

I am done with earnings. Too random and binary. 6 out of 9 of my earnings trades this year imploded even with some limited risk positions.

This one trade reduced my yearly profits by about 20% for the year even being only a 7% position in my portfolio.

Black swans are more common than the options price for.

hcgdavis 7:54 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: SPYcraft ( 95 )

#spycraft Added the Dec 13…

#spycraft

Added the Dec 13 put side since we are just chopping for now. Now that I put the trade on watch the market move.

STO 296/292 CCS for 0.29. 5 contracts completing the IC with the calls at 318/322. 0.63 credit total.

jsd501 7:21 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019

SOXL

BTC December 20, 125 put at .45, sold on November 15 at 4.90 and wish I had sold more.

thomberg1201 7:05 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing HLF October 29,…

#earnings #closing HLF

October 29, sold a Dec. 20, 40 straddle for 5.13, bought today for 4.79. This was the first day this trade was profitable, taking the small gain.

Jeff 7:04 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 )

NVDA earnings analysis

#Earnings $NVDA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 15, 2019 AC +7.25%
May 16, 2019 AC -2.28%
Feb. 14, 2019 AC +1.81%
Nov. 15, 2018 AC -18.75% Biggest DOWN
Aug. 16, 2018 AC -4.90%
May 10, 2018 AC -2.15%
Feb. 8, 2018 AC +6.69%
Nov. 9, 2017 AC +5.26%
Aug. 10, 2017 AC -5.32%
May 9, 2017 AC +17.82%
Feb. 9, 2017 AC -2.37%
Nov. 10, 2016 AC +29.80% Biggest UP

Avg (+ or -) 8.70%
Bias 2.74%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 208.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 194.41 to 221.59
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 189.90 to 226.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (29.8%): 146.02 to 269.98
Based on DOWN max only (-18.8%): 169.00

Open to requests for other symbols.

fuzzballl 6:45 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizards ( 129 )

NTAP Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Stock is rallying so booking it now…

Bought to Close NTAP NOV 15 2019 56/61/62.5 Jade Lizards @ .75 (sold for 1.62)

thomberg1201 6:43 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: closing ( 266 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

#earnings #closing WMT WMT bought…

#earnings #closing WMT

WMT bought Dec. 20, 115/125 strangle for 2.15, sold yesterday for 2.62
NTAP bought Dec. 20, 50/70 strangle for .48, sold yesterday for 1.17

Thank you for the earnings data Jeff.

jsd501 6:41 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019

DIS/NFLX

I closed out the rest of the arbitrage at 22.25 his morning.

fuzzballl 6:39 am on Thursday, November 14, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortPuts ( 4,763 )

NVDA Earnings

#ShortPuts #Earnings – My 17th time in this thing in 2019. Highest strike I’ve sold is 165 so I can’t believe I’m doing this. Still wouldn’t mind a pullback to get a better roll in Dec for my DITM covered call.

Sold NVDA Nov 15 2019 200.0 Put @ 3.35

geewhiz112 8:19 pm on Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Tags: CoveredCalls ( 2,201 ), SPX1dte ( 1,714 )

LABU CC Rolled / SPX 1 DTE Expired

#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 11/29 40 calls to 12/6 42 for .40 debit.

#spx1dte
$SPX 3050/3060/3110/3130 expired. STO at .50. Thank you @jeffcp66

anachronisti 6:04 pm on Wednesday, November 13, 2019

X Short Puts

Been pretty quiet on trading this week. Aside from wishing I took long calls in $DIS prior to earnings and Dis+ launch, I sold two Nov 15 $13.50 Puts in $X yesterday at $0.21 x 2. I’ve never had stock put to me or called away yet, and there are weeklies in the underlying so figured I’d give it a try. Sold puts with stock around $13.75 or so, and it dipped past my strike today. I’ll update if I get stock with covered call for next week.

Ramie 12:51 pm on Wednesday, November 13, 2019

CRWD Dec puts

Sold $CRWD 42.50 puts @ 1.55 with the stock at 52.19 up over 11% today. Delta 18. Earnings 12/5 after market so will be watching closely. IV rank 70.

fuzzballl 11:36 am on Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), JadeLizards ( 129 )

NTAP Earnings

#JadeLizards #Earnings – Small position just to have something to do. Playing it to the downside at the expected move and 50ma with no upside risk.

Sold NTAP NOV 15 2019 56/61/62.5 Jade Lizards @ 1.62

thomberg1201 11:32 am on Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Tags: Earnings ( 3,108 ), ShortStrangles ( 716 )

#earnings WMT Sold Dec. 20,…

#earnings WMT NTAP

WMT Sold Dec. 20, 115/125 #shortstrangles for 2.62.
NTAP Sold Dec. 20, 50/70 strangle for 1.17

Thanks for the data Jeff.

jsd501 10:47 am on Wednesday, November 13, 2019

dis/nflx

Sold to close 1/2 of the arbitrage I put on yesterday for $20.65 and kept the other half. The cost was 13.92

Jeff 9:29 am on Wednesday, November 13, 2019
Tags: DoubleCalendar ( 209 ), Earnings ( 3,108 )

CSCO earnings analysis & trade

#Earnings $CSCO reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Aug. 14, 2019 AC -8.61% Biggest DOWN
May 15, 2019 AC +6.65% Biggest UP
Feb. 13, 2019 AC +1.89%
Nov. 14, 2018 AC +5.50%
Aug. 15, 2018 AC +2.96%
May 16, 2018 AC -3.76%
Feb. 14, 2018 AC +4.72%
Nov. 15, 2017 AC +5.18%
Aug. 16, 2017 AC -4.01%
May 17, 2017 AC -7.21%
Feb. 15, 2017 AC +2.37%
Nov. 16, 2016 AC -4.81%

Avg (+ or -) 4.81%
Bias 0.07%, no significant bias on earnings.

With stock at 48.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 46.22 to 50.78
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 46.17 to 50.83
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.6%): 44.32 to 52.68
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 51.73

Open to requests for other symbols.

#doublecalendar