#earnings #closing NFLX IBM UAL
NFLX bought iron condor for 1.01, sold yesterday for 2.27
IBM bought strangle for .86, sold yesterday for 1.26
UAL bought strangle for .56, sold yesterday for 1.00
Thanks for the great data Jeff.
Monthly Archives: January 2020
NFLX
STO $NFLX Feb 07 2020 300/310 #BuPS @1.45
NFLX
#ShortPuts – Out of the earnings play but the stock is still the biggest loser on my main watchlist. Going out a couple weeks and selling at the expected move and well below the 50ma.
Sold NFLX FEB 07 2020 310.0 Put @ 2.75
NFLX Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – No sense waiting around three days for a dollar…
Bought to Close NFLX JAN 24 2020 315.0 Put @ 1.14 (sold for 5.11)
#earnings #shortstrangles UAL Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 21 75/95 strangle for 1.00
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 3265/3285-3345/3365 condors for .85, IV 8.61%, SPX 3322
UAL earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 15, 2019 AC +2.07%
July 16, 2019 AC +0.91%
April 16, 2019 AC +4.77%
Jan. 15, 2019 AC +6.35%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78%
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07%
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Avg (+ or -) 5.64%
Bias 0.03%, no bias bias on earnings.
With stock at 85.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 80.38 to 89.62
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 80.21 to 89.79
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 74.74 to 95.26
Based on UP max only (+8.8%): 92.46
***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.63% and +11.42%
Open to requests for other symbols.
LABU
#ShortPuts – Adding one replacing the one closed last week.
Sold LABU FEB 21 2020 48.0 Put @ 1.92
AVGO
#ShortPuts – More risk off in case I get stuck with NFLX…
Bought to Close AVGO JAN 31 2020 292.5 Put @ .75 (sold for 3.10)
BA Halted
For once my sense of timing was halfway decent booking my $18.60 last week. Coors Light will taste good on that one.
NFLX Earnings
#ShortPuts #Earnings – Well…here we go. Mixed results over the years with this one on earnings. Going pretty aggressive selling at the 50ma and slightly inside the expected move. Haven’t decided yet if I’ll add the call side to set up the Jade Lizard.
Sold NFLX JAN 24 2020 315.0 Put @ 5.11
UVXY
#BearCallSpreads – Nicely profitable stops set on all Feb positions so adding a little in March. Still short some puts and long VIX so would welcome these taking some heat.
Sold UVXY MAR 20 2020 15.0/30.0 Bear Call Spreads @ .70
#earnings #shortstrangles IBM Sold Feb….
#earnings #shortstrangles IBM #ironcondor NFLX
IBM Sold Feb. 21, 127/149 for 1.26
NFLX sold Feb. 21, 280/290/380/390 for 2.27
Thanks for the data Jeff
GUSH
BTC Feb. 21, 45 calls at .10 cents.
SPX risk off
#SPX1dte Earlier, BTC $SPX Jan 21st 3290 puts for .05. Condors sold Friday for 1.00.
$SPX Call
#longcalls
$SPX BTO 1/21 3320 call at 4.80 and STC at 7.00. Sometimes staying home pays off.
LK
STO January 31, 40 put at .75
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2019 AC -5.52%
July 17, 2019 AC +4.58%
April 16, 2019 AC -4.15%
Jan. 22, 2019 AC +8.46%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC -7.62% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2018 AC +3.26%
April 17, 2018 AC -7.53%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -3.99%
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +8.86% Biggest UP
July 18, 2017 AC -4.20%
April 18, 2017 AC -4.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC +2.24%
Avg (+ or -) 5.44%
Bias -0.88%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 138.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 131.81 to 144.19
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 130.49 to 145.51
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.9%): 125.77 to 150.23
Based on DOWN max only (-7.6%): 127.48
***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -11.04% and +10.60%
Open to requests for other symbols.
WYNN
#ShortPuts – Whiz just reminded us about the virus breaking out in China. I saw that over the weekend and completely forgot about it. Bailing on the earlier WYNN position for beer money and watching from the sidelines for awhile.
Bought to Close WYNN JAN 31 2020 140.0 Put @ 2.57 (sold for 3.00)
MRVL Put / NEO Call
#shortputs
$MRVL STO 1/24 28.5 put at .60
#coveredcalls
$NEO STO 2/21 35 at .90
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27% Biggest DOWN
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54% Biggest UP
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Avg (+ or -) 5.78%
Bias 1.61%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 337.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 311.53 to 363.47
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 318.01 to 356.99
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (13.5%): 291.80 to 383.20
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 302.84
***NOTE: 5-day maxes are -14.30% and +20.66%
Open to requests for other symbols.
SOXL TSLA
#ShortPuts – These are green quickly so booking now. Might take a shot at NFLX earnings now…
Bought to Close SOXL FEB 21 2020 200.0 Put @ 1.50 (sold for 5.50)
Bought to Close TSLA JAN 24 2020 480.0 Put @ .50 (sold for 7.35)
WYNN
#ShortPuts and possibly #Earnings – Earnings are probably in the week of this sale but just in case WYNN pulls a “WYNN” and changes the date at the last second I’m selling an aggressive starter to get back in this thing…
Sold WYNN JAN 31 2020 140.0 Put @ 3.00
ROKU Call / STNE Put
#coveredcalls
$ROKU STO 1/24 138 call at 1.95
#shortputs
$STNE STO 1/24 41.50 put at .60
Expiration / Assignment / Assigned Called Away
#optionsexpiration
#longcalls
$BA $BYND $CRON $ACB Long calls held on to for tooooooo long
#shortcalls
$APA Buy write called away profitably
$PTON 35 Thank you Ramie
HIIQ 25
$PLAN 57.5
$NUGT 33
$ROKU 150
#shortputs
$LK 44.5
$APA 25
$AMRN 19
$NOK 4
$KL 40
$LABU 50 Thank you @fuzzballl
$MRVL 26
LK 38
$NEO 30
#bups
$ROKU 110/120
$SPX 3225/3250 Thank you @jeffcp66
#assignment
$NEO Long call assigned at $30. Basis 30.65. Stock at 32.05.
$BOOT $45 put assigned. Basis 43.15. Stock at 43.65
$EDIT 26/31 BUPS expired in the money when I was not looking. Stock assigned at 31. Basis 29.70. Stock at 30.64
$LABU Finally let it go at $55. Purchased at 50.65 on 4/30. Rolled calls for added gain of 3.70.
$STNE Called away as stock reached 42.04 at end of day and surpassed 42 covered call.
Enjoy the long weekend. Rest clears the mind. I hope. 😉
Options Expiration
#OptionsExpiration – Let this one go the distance…
ISRG 587.5 Put (sold for 5.10)
#earnings #closing STT Bought strangle…
PPG closed
#Earnings Sold to close $PPG Jan17/Jan24 131 #DoubleCalendar for .12. Bought Wednesday for .50.
Several chances to get out at small profit or breakeven. The rage of profitability really decreases quickly as we approach expiration. I need to take money and run and quit waiting for the long shot of a jackpot.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 21st 3270/3290-3350/3370 condors for 1.00, IV 5.44%, SPX 3323.
Expiring today: Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors, sold yesterday for .90
BA
#ShortPuts – Losing my enthusiasm for this one. If 320 doesn’t hold there’s not much under it to stop it. Taking a small gain and waiting for earnings now.
Bought to Close BA JAN 24 2020 322.5 Put @ 2.90 (sold for 3.10)
Econ Calendar for week of 1/20/20
Link to Calendar: https://research.investors.com/economic-calendar/
NOW
Making a new all time high so BTO 310/330 call spread in May for 8.95 and STO the 290 put at 13.36
FB
FB is breaking out to a new high and earnings are on Jan. 29 so, I bought a 220/240 bull call spread for 7.65 and a March 20 expiration. To help pay for the spread I sold the 205 put at 3.34,
GRMN
Appears to be in a nice volatility squeeze without increase in volume. Looks like it could pop to the upside, but hasn’t yet.
Any ideas on how to play this, or just watch? Thoughts appreciated?
#closing #shortputs EXAS Monday I…
#closing #shortputs EXAS
Monday I sold a Feb. 21, 80 put for 2.00, bought today for 1.55.
Thanks to @jsd501 for the trade
AAL
BTC AAL 24 JAN 20 29.5/30/27.5 jadelizard @.45….STO 12/17 @.98
LK
BTC Feb. 7th, 30 puts at .45 cents. sold at 2.55
RH BUCS Closed / LK NEO Puts / OKTA Calls / NUGT Call Rolled
#bucs
$RH STC 1/17 210/230 at 17.00. BTO for 7.80 on 12/31
#shortputs
$LK STO 1/24 46 put at 1.16
$NEO STO 2/21 30 put at .80
#coveredcalls
$OKTA STO 1/24 131 call at 1.40
$NUGT BTC 1/17 33 call and STO 1/31 33.50 call for 1.10 added credit
JPM closed
#Earnings Sold to close $JPM Jan 17th 138 calls for .40 (large accounts), and 38/40 call spreads for .35 (smaller accounts). #CallButterfly bought for .33 on Monday, so all about breakeven after commissions.
AMD
STC Jan 24 47.5/49.5 Calls $1.55 BTO 1-17-20 $0.91 #in-out
PNC closed
#Earnings #Assignment On Tuesday I bought $PNC Jan17/Jan24 160 #DoubleCalendar for .50.
Stock dropped too much so trade was a loser. Assigned last night on the puts at 160.00.
Today, sold long puts for 6.60 and stock for 153.53. So I managed to squeeze .13 out of closing the trade.
TNDM BUCS Closed
#bucs
$TNDM STC 1/17 60/79 BUCS at 8.50. BTO at 3.16 on 12/18. Remaining position closed. Earlier sale at 6.50.
#earnings STT Sold Feb. 21,…
SLB earnings analysis
#Earnings $SLB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2019 BO +1.31%
July 19, 2019 BO -0.18%
April 18, 2019 BO -3.90% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +8.12% Biggest UP
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
July 20, 2018 BO -1.24%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.49%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -2.09%
July 21, 2017 BO -0.73%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.18%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO -0.81%
Avg (+ or -) 1.85%
Bias -0.26%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 38.60 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 37.06 to 40.14
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 37.89 to 39.31
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.1%): 35.47 to 41.73
Based on DOWN max only (-3.9%): 37.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
STT earnings analysis
#Earnings $STT reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2019 BO +6.09%
July 19, 2019 BO +6.73% Biggest UP
April 23, 2019 BO -4.34%
Jan. 18, 2019 BO +0.35%
Oct. 19, 2018 BO -8.53% Biggest DOWN
July 20, 2018 BO -7.40%
April 20, 2018 BO -4.33%
Jan. 23, 2018 BO +2.92%
Oct. 23, 2017 BO -2.97%
July 26, 2017 BO +1.88%
April 26, 2017 BO +3.63%
Jan. 25, 2017 BO -3.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.38%
Bias -0.78%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 80.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 76.01 to 83.99
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 76.50 to 83.50
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (8.5%): 73.18 to 86.82
Based on UP max only (+6.7%): 85.38
Open to requests for other symbols.
SPX 1 dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 17th 3255/3275-3330/3350 condors for .90, IV 8.32%, SPX 3308
DAL, NEM, SLB, CAH
STO. DAL 31 Jan 20 60 PUT @.36..
STO. NEM 31 Jan 20 43 PUT @.40..
Rolled SLB 17 Jan 39 Put to 21 FEB 37.5 PUT @.18 Credit….Jan 17 sold 1/3 @.60
One from yesterday
STO CAH 31 JAN 20 52 PUT @.50
ILMN LABU
Bought to Close ILMN JAN 24 2020 300.0 Put @ .25 (sold for 3.60)
Bought to Close LABU JAN 17 2020 50.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.45)
#earnings #closing AA Yesterday bought…
TSLA
BTO Jan 31 490/492.50 Call Spread $1.35 #supercharger
ISRG
PNC
STC Dbl Cal $0.07 Bought 1-14 $0.48
FAST earnings analysis
#Earnings $FAST reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 11, 2019 BO +17.15% Biggest UP
July 11, 2019 BO -2.84%
April 11, 2019 BO +5.04%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +5.94%
Oct. 10, 2018 BO -7.13%
July 11, 2018 BO +10.05%
April 11, 2018 BO -6.19%
Jan. 17, 2018 BO -5.84%
Oct. 11, 2017 BO -0.78%
July 12, 2017 BO -1.99%
April 12, 2017 BO -8.04% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 18, 2017 BO +5.80%
Avg (+ or -) 6.40%
Bias 0.93%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 37.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 34.63 to 39.37
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 34.63 to 39.37 (exactly the same)
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (17.2%): 30.65 to 43.35
Based on DOWN max only (-8.0%): 34.03
Open to requests for other symbols.
LK
BTC LK 21 FEB 20 30 PUT @.45….STO 2/8 @1.15
NFLX TWTR Calls ROKU BUPS ANET BUCS Closed / EXAS BUCS / LABU AMZN Calls Rolled
#longcalls
$NFLX STC 1/17 310 calls at 31.30. BTO at 17.85 on 11/22
$TWTR STC 1/17 30 calls at 3.20. BTO at 1.69 on 11/21 Thank you @jsd501
#bups
$ROKU BTC 1/17 120/130 BUPS at .60. STO on 12/13 at 3.20
#bucs
$ANET STC 1/17 210/220 BUCS at 4.50. BTO on 12/16 for 1.59
#bucs
$EXAS BTO 3/20/2020 90/100 BUCS at 4.23
#coveredcalls
$LABU BTC 1/17 55 call and STO 1/24 57 call at .60 debit. Stock now at 59.26
$AMZN BTC 1/17 1980 call and STO 1/24 1950 call at 2.78 credit
VXX longs
#VXXGame . Bought to open $UVXY March 20th 25 calls for .32, and $VXX March 20th 25 calls for .24.
These are longs I can later sell against, assuming a volatility spike will be coming before too long.
ULTA
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – My one bad position. Assigned stock at 315.00 after it tanked last quarter. Sold covered calls aggressively reducing basis to 287. Finally got caught in the never ending up market. Letting the stock go this week (maybe) at 240 and will resume the recovery with put selling to eventually get the 47 points back.
Sold ULTA FEB 7 2020 267.5 Put @ 3.40
SOXL
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close SOXL JAN 17 2020 230.0 Put @ .15 (sold for 3.20)
SPX long closed
#SPX1dte SOld to close $SPX Jan 17th 3315/3330 call spread for .95. Bought yesterday for 1.60. Have been trying to exit all day… got as high as 3.00, but kept reversing before I was filled. My timing in January has been atrocious, so not letting this one fail completely. I sold the 3250/3225 put spread against it for 1.90. That one is currently profitable and I think will be fine to leave for tomorrow.
Expiring today: Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors, sold yesterday for 1.00
TNA
#ShortPuts – Bought to Close TNA JAN 17 2020 67.5 Put @ .05 (sold for 1.38)
#earnings BTC GS Iron Condor…
#earnings
BTC GS Iron Condor .20
Was STO yesterday for 1.10
#shortputspread AMZN Sold Feb. 21…
#shortputspread AMZN
Sold Feb. 21 1795/1800 for 1.57. Earnings are Jan. 29, hope to be out by then.
#earnings #longstrangle AA I am…
I am long assigned shares from a while back. I closed a covered call and bought a 19.50/21.50 strangle for .53. These rarely work. Stock is at 20.30.
VIX hedges
#VXXGame Bought to open $VIX March 17th 17/20 call spreads for .52.
Also, added to Feb 18th 19/22 for .28. First bought on Nov 18th for .60.
TSLA
STC 482.50/485.00 1-17-2020 Call spread $2.40 BTO 1-9-2020 $1.21
#earnings #closing JPM Jan. 13,…
LSCC
STO February 21, 20 puts at 1.35, earnings are on February 10 so expect to be out by then.
BTO SPX
17 JAN 2020 3240/3220 BuPS for 0.50
PPG earnings analysis & trade
#Earnings $PPG reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 17, 2019 BO +1.91%
July 18, 2019 BO +0.33%
April 18, 2019 BO +2.10%
Jan. 17, 2019 BO +4.70% Biggest UP
Oct. 18, 2018 BO +0.88%
July 19, 2018 BO -0.33%
April 19, 2018 BO -3.13%
Jan. 18, 2018 BO +3.41%
Oct. 19, 2017 BO +1.26%
July 20, 2017 BO -6.05% Biggest DOWN
April 20, 2017 BO +1.30%
Jan. 19, 2017 BO +0.83%
Avg (+ or -) 2.19%
Bias 0.60%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 131.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 125.90 to 136.10
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 128.14 to 133.86
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 123.07 to 138.93
Based on UP max only (+4.7%): 137.16
Open to requests for other symbols.
CWST
STO Feb. 21, 50 put at 1.90, Stock making a new high on the monthly chart and weekly. Good volume.
TSLA
#ShortPuts – Staying in the week before earnings and rolling up for extra premium…
Rolled TSLA JAN 24 2020 425.0 Put to JAN 24 2020 480.0 Put @ 3.35 credit (7.35 total now)
JPM
Closed Earnings BF $0.32 Bought for 0.29 BE
#earnings #closing GS Bought 220/270…
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 15th 3220/3240-3305/3325 condors for 1.00, IV 9.28%, SPX 3281
#earnings #shortstrangles GS Sold Feb….
Sold Feb. 21 220/270 strangle for 2.01. This is outside the 1 day max moves.
Thanks for the data Jeff.
Options Bistro 