Follow up to the high accuracy discussion below.

So on SPY the risk is fairly high to the reward. As @fuzzballl pointed out would take 33 winning trades or so to make up for 1 loss. However @jeffcp66 has figured out how to adjust credit spreads and losses could probably be contained to a reasonable level or a break even.

Regardless, I think the most efficient way to play this would be with /ES options (so excludes IRA accounts, need margin).

Full disclosure, I used to do this and was hugely successful, paid cash for 2 VWs in 6 months but then lost my shirt and a bunch more on 8/24/2015. My wife swore me to secrecy that I would never tell anyone exactly how much but will leave it as I gave back 6 months of profits in 1 day. Enough for another 2 fully decked out VWs.

So I figured out my issue since then and it had to do with leverage and a broker that did not understand futures options (optionsxpress). TOS and Tradestation allowed me to adjust my positions and broke even 2 weeks later. I have been doing this a little since and as long as you keep the leverage under control can manage the losers. I have not been posting because if you do not understand that part it is very risky. If you guys want me to post these trades I will. I tried it with oil but harder to do since no weekly options.

So here it is with a few tweaks. Combo of tastytrade and fishback techniques with my own addition.

Sell the closest to 45 DTE strangle on /ES. Currently would be the 37DTE 2405 put and 2620 call. These are both delta 9 options with prob. of 90% of being OTM at expiration. Current margin is $3895 per contract. They typically decay to delta 4 options in 3-4 weeks and can take 50-60% profits then as well. Then roll to next cycle closest to 45 DTE and start over, rinse and repeat.

Here is my tweak, I keep 6k on hand for each contract, that way I can cover with short or long /ES contract on a sustained move. If the delta gets to 30 will either roll, or if it appears will keep moving use the /ES contract. At that point you become directional but your risk is covered if you have 1 contract for every option and the only extra margin is to fulfill the futures contract. To the upside a covered call and downside a covered put. If you are exercised the contract fulfills the option, both positions close and you just made a tone of cash. That only happens a few times a year if lucky.

Advantages over SPY: trades almost 24/7. I tried to adjust at midnight on 8/24/17 and then went to sleep but the market moved another 300 points over night, only panic attack since getting caught in an avalanche skiing back country 20+ years ago.
Tax advantage 60/40 treatment like SPX
Much lower margin than on SPX. To do 1 contract on SPX is like 109k margin.
Liquidity although was not so good 8/24/17. The spreads went 25 points wide that day and getting anything filled was hard to impossible.
The put call/skew is still really good since 1987 so you could also do it one way directional on the puts and still have good return. Then would only have to adjust in 1 direction. The 2405 put is 4.85 as I type this and the 2620 call is only 1.85.

Disadvantages: a flash crash may move too quickly to cover, see above and you can lose a lot more than you get out or put in.
The double leverage of the options on the futures cuts both ways.
2 /ES = 1 SPX = 10 SPY so effectively 10-20:1 leverage compared to SPY options which are already 10:1. Like nitrous on a turbo car, fun until you melt the turbine wheel and the resulting shrapnel punctures the engine block! Been there done that and have the t-shirt and don’t want to do either again.

So that’s the best way I can come up to trade the SP500. Thoughts, comments, suggestions always appreciated and if you want me to post these trades I will. Just understand the leverage before doing it.

High accuracy options update. Finally…

High accuracy options update. Finally watched the DVD. Did not learn anything new but Fishback has found that a 1.21815 standard deviation tends to have the best risk/reward ratio. For those that do not want to do the math that works out to 90% probability of being OTM at expiration on TOS.

This is only for indexes, not individual names. But trading SPY the last 12 months using the 90% OTM short strike then going 3-5 points out on the long with iron condors they had a 300% return on investment and only 1 or 2 loosing trades. I don’t think they adjusted them looking at the spreadsheet, if they had probably would have been 100% winners.

Next week some WDC cc expire/assign in a small account. I will set up a new experiment. SPY 21-28 DTE 1.2 STD deviation iron condors. Add a new cycle each week and let the worthless ones expire. Anything goes ITM will adjust and see what happens. The account only has 6k in it so will see if I can get the same results in a rolling year.

#hashtag

#longcalldiagonals SVXY synthetic rolled the…

#longcalldiagonals

SVXY synthetic rolled the 10/27 78 call out to 11/17 for 1.35 credit. Cost basis now 9.62 and 14.70 depending on lot against original basis of 16.06 and 21.14. It went up too fast to roll the short call weekly.

Lesson learned, next spike will set up additional synthetics with disaster put but will not sell short term calls against it. Not trying to be greedy but had I left it synthetic would be up almost 10k on 4 contracts. By selling calls I have limited it to 8k so still a great return no doubt.

I will keep the experiment going until Jan 2019 but I think we can all see it works and there is such a directional bias with UVXY, XIV, VXX, SVXY probably better to set them up on a vol. spike then leave them alone or sell really far OTM like 30 or lower delta.

Shotgun trades, new #optionladder Setting…

Shotgun trades, new #optionladder

Setting up some new ladders in names with good premium. Some have earnings in a few weeks.

STO EOG 11/3 93 put at 1
GILD 11/3 79 put at 1.04
MU 11/3 39 put at 0.93

Will add new trades each week until 3-4 rolling weeks on the ladders.

BTC 11/3 XBI 79 put at 0.23. Sold 0.94. Premiums dried up on this since it went booster phase. Should improve with next big pull back. Only 1 week left on the ladder on this then will be out until the premiums improve again.

#optionladder BTC XBI 21 DTE…

#optionladder

BTC XBI 21 DTE 80 put for 0.22. Sold for 1.01. Holding off on adding to the ladder since this thing went parabolic last 2 months. When it pulls back will re-establish.

Also freeing up cash/margin for when things look better from an option selling stand point.

Last trade of the week for me, hope everyone has a good expiration and weekend!

First look at the market…

First look at the market this morning, is that really a lower low and lower high on the chart? Looks like someone inverted my charts…………at least on a 5 and 15 minute.

Thurs trades

Rolled this week WDC to 15 DTE 86 call to 85 call for 1.00 credit

Rolled this week SVXY 70 put to 11/3 70 for .96 credit

Maybe we are finally hitting the euphoric phase of the bull market and will get a reversal soon. There is more risk than ever and people keep piling money into it. Also 401 k hit all time high which usually only happens at the tops since I can only trade underperfoming mutual funds in it.

Vix finally starting to tick…

Vix finally starting to tick up with the market at all time highs so someone is starting to at least buy a few spx puts.

I know the market can keep moving longer than I can stay solvent, learned that lesson a long time ago, but the last 2 weeks have been ridiculous!

Everything that is stock related has gone parabolic. Some market guru (oil trader I think) was quoted as saying bull markets die on euphoria. Are we there yet?!

Another close, another record. At…

Another close, another record. At some point this is not going to end well for a lot of people but until then I plan to keep a lot of cash handy.

Can make more money in a bear market quicker!

Trade smart and keep some powder dry…………..

WDC rolled this week 87…

WDC rolled this week 87 put down to 86.5 DTE 18 for 0.33 credit. Quicker on this one to take assignment and convert to CC but I have some margin that releases next week and will make taking the shares easier on the account.

#optionladder BTC XBI 10/20 78…

#optionladder

BTC XBI 10/20 78 put for 0.16. Sold for 0.94. No point in leaving the risk for $16 in theta over 21 days.

Sometime the market gods giveth, sometimes they taketh away. No point in tempting the market gods!

#longcalldiagonals

Apparently the SPX and SVXY only go up forever although the charts are starting to look like 2000 and 2008 so there may be a lot of irrational exuberance. So my SVXY 78 call (14 DTE) which I just rolled last week is still DITM and the time value was down to 0.12 so rolled to 28 DTE 78 for 1.15 credit. Brings cost basis down to 10.97 and 16.05 depending on lot.

Now profit is $5312 in 7 weeks on 4 contracts and I am not complaining but if I had not sold the short calls and just did the synthetic long with the protective put would be up 7k+.

I will try to roll it up if we ever get a pullback but right now so far ITM hard to roll it up for a credit unless I go way out in time.

Maybe better just to sell puts on this one and take assignment to go long or start a synthetic long on a volatility spike. Will keep the experiment going, there are still 68 weeks left for it to play out but the first 7 weeks are promising!

I am done paying for option services but Fishback just made their high accuracy options DVD available for $99. Usually sells for $2000. I doubt there is anything earth shattering in it, but they had 300% returns confirmed last year so for $99 I think it is worth taking a look. I will get it and if I discover anything new pass it along. Tripling an account in 1 year would certainly help anyone’s bottom line and I believe that included about 5 losses, not sure if it went full loss or they closed it early or were able to roll it and that is what I am interested in. I think they stick with SPY and QQQ.

If any

XBI rolled 15 DTE 79…

XBI rolled 15 DTE 79 put to 43 DTE 80 put for 0.81 credit to keep the ladder rolling 4 weeks at a time.

Now I have the day off, maria passed through, we have sun and wind and 2 other friends have the day off so going kiteboarding!

I rolled most of my trades yesterday so unless something really good comes along I am done trading for the week. Hope everyone has a good expiration tomorrow.

Cheers

Rolls. Too busy to post at lunch.

WDC 9/29 86 calls rolled to 10/13 for 0.95 credit
WDC 10/6 84 calls rolled to 10/20 for 0.68 credit
WDC 10/6 85 calls rolled to 10/20 for 0.81 credit
WDC 10/6 84 calls rolled to 10/20 for 0.57 credit TS account, TOS seems to get much better fills
WDC 9/29 85 put rolled to 10/6 87 for 0.83 or so.

This was to stay in the positions to collect the 0.50 dividend on Friday so I was keeping the time value above 0.50 so no one would exercise early.

Cash machine last few weeks, dropped the cost basis another 1k+, collect the dividend then will let them get called out and start the put ladder again. Great premiums and stays in range. New range 81-90. Previous was 85-97.

#optionladder STO XBI 11/3 79…

#optionladder

STO XBI 11/3 79 put at 0.93. Added a 4th week to the ladder.

The OTM options on this decay fairly quickly so open 30-40 DTE and usually roll when they have 1-2 weeks left so they are not open until expiration. Works well like tastytrade style but you can usually get more than 50% out of it before rolling.

#longcalldiagonals SVXY rolled 10/6 78…

#longcalldiagonals

SVXY rolled 10/6 78 put to extra week for 0.60 credit. I figure as long as I can roll each week for 0.50 or so will wait for roll up until we get a pull back, maybe someday.

Cost basis now 12.12 and 17.2 depending on lot.

The diagonals work on the high vol. products. Does not work as well for spy/qqq as it used to. Infact the leaps are priced with higher vol so hard to make up the theta decay by selling weeklies. Up 4k+ on 8k initial investment so 50% return in 6 weeks but this ticker I think it makes more sense just to go synthetic long on a vol. spike.

However this is an ongoing experiment so will continue it until the end but I may set up another batch on the next vol spike and see how the synthetic long without selling weeklies works.

Week 9/23 expiration

Did not have time to post Friday, too busy at work but managed to snap off and roll some trades at lunch and a few seconds before the closing bell.

STO next week WDC 85 puts at 1.00. Good support at 85 now.

Rolled WDC 9/23 calls out and up 2 weeks to 86 for a credit of .82. Trying to keep for 2 more weeks for the dividend then will unload and restart ladders. Good premiums!

Did the same with the 84 calls up to 85 for 0.43 credit.

Tried to do the same later with another account but the market makers became greedy at the close so rolled 84 to 84 2 weeks out for 0.67 and 0.73. That gets me past the dividend unless someone takes early assignment.

Collected $1393 on the rolls and now my cost basis on WDC is 80-82 depending on the account after being assigned at 90 so after the dividend will roll for cash 1-2 more weeks then unload and start over and the dividend is 0.50 per share.

Also closed out 5 months with a 26.6% return on entire portfolio including the losing trades since joining the bistro ranks! Thanks for helping me find new trading vehicles and improving my consistency.

With the low vol I have been scouring the market for good premiums to sell and here is what I have found for the next few weeks or until we get a vol spike. AAPL is moving up the premium ladder with the recent drop. Others that also look good for weeklies or ladders WDC, SWKS, TQQQ, GILD if you go out 2 weeks or more since the rebound, AAL and DAL are good percentage wise, FSLR and EOG. If I find any others will post and don’t know if any of them have earnings. TSO has been reborn as ANDV but the options are not real liquid yet but am watching it. TSO has been my most productive ticker for 5 months and was sad when it merged as the option premiums dried up. XBI still good for ladders but with the move up having to go closer to the money.

Hope it helps or you find something useful in there.

Market starting to move a…

Market starting to move a little, 9 points /es after hours. Keep some cash handy, might have some trades tomorrow.

I am looking at /es strangle at 2345 and 2565 but probably wait until the morning to see what the open brings. Plus will have some more cash tomorrow from a transfer and rolling positions will give me some extra cushion.

/NQ/qqq finally rolling over on…

/NQ/qqq finally rolling over on shorter time frames. Will it drag the rest of the market? Will we get some volatility 🙂 hope so but will know in 20 minutes. I have a feeling that if there is no change from the fed likely going higher again, but I am too chicken at the moment to trade it. Will wait on the news……….

Tool

Raghee from simpler futures just posted her shared charts and tools for tos and they are also available on tradestation as free download.

Some good tools.

Link for TOS http://tos.mx/qiWIsi paste into shared chart and voila, you have the tools.

That is capital i after the W.

Next experiment

Busy all morning at the office and looks like today is mostly chop so did not miss much.

So I know the key to consistent returns is selling options but would like to be better at the directional trades to get an extra kick, home run every now and then and also to improve the timing of my option selling. The problem is most trend following systems tend to get in too late and out too late, especially on short time frames. I have pretty much looked at all of them over the years. Big trends, simpler, turtle trading, connors rsi system, whiz, alphashark, kirkland, persons, and several others. The alphashark tools have been helpful and have paid for themselves many times over but are mostly based on day trading although can be tweaked for longer time frames. Because of my schedule I am more of a weekly and swing trader.

I like @fibwizard charts but don’t have time to watch tick charts. So I have been watching several systems over the last few months and think I have discovered a hybrid that may work well for weekly trades. Basically use my alphashark market profile and dynamic swing trader indicators and combine them with kirklands p3 squeeze and a CCI 30 as the trigger confirmation. Looking at 6 months of data, seems to get the meat of most of the moves because you get into the trade earlier and out earlier than any of the other systems. Also fewer whipsaws than most of the other systems. I also like some of Raghee’s tools from simpler futures but have not figured out how to integrate them and she posts them for free (rare that simpler would give anything away). The GRAB candles are helpful and she somehow tweaked the darvas box to look like a pivot point but is based on real support and resistance, not just projected.

Anyway, no system is perfect but am restarting the /ES strangles with a directional bias when there is one. On a 5 and 15 min. have a fresh sell signal on the /ES so am selling one oct EOM 2570 call but watch the 1 and 4 hour for the weekly signals. Will then leg into the put once/if we get a drop. Between the strangle may buy or short 1 /es contract if there is a sustained move in either direction. I had some huge success with this before but got burned big on 8/24/15, not because it didn’t work, had too much size to properly hedge and optionsxpress locked my account.

My thought is to collect steady theta decay, but get the home run and hedge at the same time on the bigger moves. As you short or go long the future it hedges the options and creates a synthetic covered call or short with a put. Basically sell a delta 8 option each week (45DTE or close), then hedge when needed. I suppose if the delta of the short option hits 16-30, then add the directional component.

Will post as I trade it in real time and will share my charts. If anyone else has any thoughts or ideas on how to improve it, please let me know.

Current margin requirements are about 4k for selling a single strangle but then need to have 6k for the futures contract, so about 9-10k for each contract so as to not get into too much trouble.

Probably wont start until Thurs, when I can transfer some funds, current margin a little low.

Apologize for the long post, but I know you can help me find the flaws in the system and make it better.

Cheers, Chris

XBI ladders

Rolled 10/6 77 put to 10/27 80 put for 0.84 credit.

Sold for 1.10.

Rolled WDC this week 85…

Rolled WDC this week 85 calls to out 2 weeks 86 calls for 0.80 credit. Trying to hold on to my shares through dividend of 0.50 on 9/29 and the time value had dropped below the dividend.

After dividend I will let them be called away and restart put ladders

SVXY put rolls

BTC next week 50 put for 0.23 sold for 1.0
STO Dec 50 put for 1.87. Would not go through as a spread at a decent price. Anyone trading SVXY today the market makers are being extremely greedy and keeping the spreads wide so work them and may be better to do as separate orders than as a roll.

Rolled this week 70 put to 10/6 in a few different accounts for 1.12 and 1.23 credit.

STO Dec 55 put for 2.5 in IRA.

On a separate trade, here is the graph for 3 weeks SVXY #longcalldiagonals since moving the short strike up to 78.

SVXY synthetic

#longcalldiagonals SVXY experiment week 4….

#longcalldiagonals SVXY experiment week 4.

The runaway train has my 76 call way ITM with only a few cents of time value left so rolled this week out to Oct 6 78 call for 0.50 credit. Probably need to roll it up to 90 but want to keep taking in credits and that was as close in time I could go and still take a decent credit.

Cost basis now 12.72 and 17.80 plus a few cents for commissions.

The profit graph is starting to look interesting now. No upside loss and my break even is now mid 60s. Will post later.

Open P/L $2063 in 4 weeks on 4.5 contracts so looks like this will work really well long term. Still have 60+ weeks for the trade to play out. Max risk is now none to upside and $1000 per contract to downside. Bring in another 2000 in premium and risk will be 0.

Anyone trading TQQQ or UPRO?…

Anyone trading TQQQ or UPRO? Triple bulls on the qqq and spy.

Good premiums and obviously they whip around a lot but that is the point.

May start another experiment with some of these if no one else trading. Possible ITM CC candidates or sell puts on weeklies then if assigned roll into CC with hope of getting called out.

My only concern is excessive volatility or a sustained down move. I guess then could set up a synthetic short if you were long the stock and buy a few extra puts or buy the inverse SQQQ or SDS.

Thoughts, anyone doing this already?

I tend to not follow any of the Gurus other than tastytrade but this is one chuck hughes is always selling covered calls on. a 4 DTE ATM options holds 1.50 of premium.

11 DTE is going for 2.50 mid point.

XBI ladder

rolled18 dte 76 put to 39 dte 78 put for 0.74 credit. Sold for 0.99 and it was down to 0.19.

@fuzzballl and @jsd501 you guys make it through the storm ok?

SVXY synthetic week 3

Rolled the 75 calls this week up to 76 next week for 0.68 credit. Because I had rolled the 79 down to 75 earlier this week, not much profit this week, but still lowers the cos basis to 13.22 on the first batch and 18.30 on the second batch.

So basically reduce the cost basis by $2-3 each week by rolling the short options. That should create a risk free position in another 6-8 weeks, then any sales is pure profit and any long term appreciation will be icing on the cake all the way to Jan. 2019.

I cannot load the graph from my work computer but max profit next week would be $980 on 4 contracts if we close at 76. Seems like SVXY will be stuck between 70-80 for a while but will roll the short calls up any chance I get.

#longcalldiagonals

WDC CC rolls

Don’t think anyone else is in this trade right now so will be brief.

Assigned on a bunch of WDC 90 puts on earnings gone bad, they beat but the stock sold off from 96 down as low as 81 or so. Took assignment on half and rolling the puts on half to see which works better in real time on deep ITM puts. Converting to covered calls wins. I was break even last week, this week up average of .54 on the calls if I let assignment go next week. Still have some work to do on the puts. Moral of the story, if you can’t take in more than 0.5 by rolling the puts weekly go ahead and take assignment and convert to covered calls or collar it if still dropping.

Rolled this weeks 84 and 85 WDC calls to 15 DTE for varying credits of 0.67-82 depending on accounts. Now will be profitable on all the converted covered calls and will either: let assignment happen in next 1-2 weeks or if stays where it is and I can bring in more than 0.5 each week by rolling will keep rolling.

Cost basis now under 84 with the stock at 88.55 currently.

XBI ladders

Rolled 16 DTE 77 put to 37 DTE 79 put for 0.82 credit. Sold for 1.1 about 4 weeks ago.

SVXY synthetic

Rolled the 79 call this week down to 75 for 1.05 credit. Brings the cost basis of the second batch down to 18.98 from 20.03.

With the VIX hovering 12-15 now and looking like it will stay there for a while keeping SVXY between 70-80 may have some good weekly premium to collect.

If we break down below 65 on SVXY will back ratio the 70/60 put spread to get some directional deltas.

SVXY synthetic

Rolled the 75 call yesterday for 0.85 credit and today the 79 calls for 1.17 credit. Both rolled to next week.

Total profit for 2 weeks on 4 contracts long and 5 short is $1198. That works out to an 11.9% return on capital but if you base it on risk is a 56% return in 2 weeks. As long as SVXY stays in a range, this may out perform all my other techniques. I am not on a computer with TOS so cannot share the graph at the moment but next weeks max profit potential is now around $1700 around the 80 strike.

Cost basis on first batch down to 13.95 from 16.06 and on the second batch 19.97 down from 21.14.

I plan to keep rolling the strikes but if we keep pushing up may go out a few weeks and up a few $ to improve capital gains. I figure as long as I can take in 0.50 or higher credit with each roll will stay at the same strikes.

Also rolled some SVXY 70 puts this week to next for 0.86 credit and WDC 84 and 85 calls to 1-2 weeks for 0.53 credit.

Profit range on the SVXY synthetic is now 68 to about 90 or so.

Have a good long weekend. Maybe we have some volatility next week when the big traders are back from summer vacation!

#longputdiagonals

SVXY rolled this week 75…

SVXY rolled this week 75 call to next week for 0.85 credit. There was only about 0.15 of time decay left when I rolled it.

Part of the SVXY synthetic. Will do full update tomorrow but cost basis on the first group down to 13.90 now or about 13.95 with commissions after 2 weeks.

lunch trades, only time i…

lunch trades, only time i get to trade most of the week

rolled xbi 9/15 75 put to 10/6 77 put for 0.9 credit. sold for 1.06 off a ladder roll about a month ago. keeping 3-4 weeks of a rolling ladder going.

btc swks this week 101 put for 0.35. sold for 1.06 as part of recovery rolls over a month ago. nice to finally be done with this one. i set up a ladder when it was up around 112. then dropped as low as 94-95 so have been rolling for about 6-8 weeks and finally have the original profit back. this is still a good one for ladders but i am going to leave it alone for a few weeks.

these freed up some cash/margin for the next drop or vol. increase!

svxy synthetic is looking great for this week. will update tomorrow or friday and roll to new positions.

XBI rolled this week 77…

XBI rolled this week 77 puts to 9/22 for 0.8 credit. Originally sold for 1.06.

Did not take my own advice on friday. Was about to close SWKS 101 puts that had decayed to .033 after several rolls and instead thought no I will let them close this week and avoid the commission. Gapped down 2 points this morning so after 7 weeks of recovering a 16 point drop still have to baby sit this one. Will roll it later in the week once the time value decays out.

SVXY synthetic week 1 results….

SVXY synthetic week 1 results. I suspect @fuzzballl UVXY trades are a mirror image. Won’t know which one wins until Jan 2019.

Made $323 on 1 contract for return of 20.1%. Forgot to add some zeros on yesterdays comments. Unlikely that would work out as well every week but potential to double money every 4-6 weeks if it can stay in that range. Most it can blow up now is $1000 on the down side or $1475 any other way.

Rolled the SVXY this week 75 call to next week for 1.31 credit.

Cost basis now 14.75 down from initial position of 16.06. Commission makes that officially 14.79 cost basis.

This is what the graph looks like for next week with the roll.

Next week have bunch of options expiring and will scale this up a few contracts but will start synthetic at 75 instead of 70 or wherever ATM is.

If it starts to tank to the downside can always butterfly the puts or if I have a few more puts can back ratio it for a directional kick.

If we stay above 77 will roll next week up 1-2 points but trying to stay close to the money to maximize weekly credit and weekly decay although it does not give much room to run.

SVXY synthetic

TSO has been reborn as…

TSO has been reborn as ANDV. They bought western sands and for some reason changed the name. Premiums are not quite as good as when it was TSO but will watch how it trades for a few weeks. TSO was a great one for ladders.

Just FYI as I know some of you were trading TSO.

STO 9/29 SVXY 50 put…

STO 9/29 SVXY 50 put at 1.00 in IRA.

More trades and expirations tomorrow and will update the VXX synthetic trade. Still hanging on to a lot of time value because the short call is ATM on SVXY. Was hoping to roll today but will wait until tomorrow.

See @fuzzballl comments below but I think we are on to something. If it closes same as right now tomorrow works out to 2.86% return in 1 week. Carried out 52 times a year that would be awesome, of course not every week will be a winner and there will be a lot of adjustments along the way but theoretically can double money every 6-8 months or so with very little risk. Debit was 16.06 and max risk to downside $1000 on 1 contact. Should be able to reduce cost basis $1-2 each week through call sales.

On vacation but at home…

On vacation but at home and market is giving some opportunities.

Rolled WDC this week cc at 84 and 85 to 9/8 for 0.25 credit rolling up to 85 and the others were rolled to 84 at 0.90-0.97. Cost basis now under strike, will probably let assignment happen in 2 weeks if we are still above and then restart put ladder.

Will update the VXX synthetic on Friday, so far so good……….

Binary

Don’t know about the rest of you but it seems like everyone is treating the market like a binary option, either all in or all out and the switch changes daily!

Selling options should work well.

VXX synthetic

Filled on one contract so we can see which one works better.

SVXY STO Jan 19 60/70 put credit spread at 5.20.
BTO the Leaps CC 70 2019 and sold the next week 75 at 21.26 debit.

Race is on between this and UVXY, update weekly and see which one is better!

Good luck!

Synthetic SVXY

Having trouble getting my TOS to copy or share at the moment but if you did a synthetic long with LEAPs CC on SVXY you could currently buy the 75 call and sell the 75 put Jan 19 Leaps for 2.55-2.6 debit. Each contract would require margin of $7500. You can then sell next weeks 78.75 call for 2.01. Then each week roll the call. In 2 weeks your cost basis is zero so any additional sales would be profit as long as svxy stays about where it is now. Any upside you make $ on both the call and the put.

In case of a big drop you probably would not get assigned until the majority of the time value is out of the short put or is way ITM.

If I can get my graph to share will post it. I am not doing this now, just an idea but will probably put on a few positions in 2 weeks when some other options expire.

#longcalldiagonals

Thurs trades

STO SVXY 8/25 70 puts at 1.02-1.32. Managed to catch the spike.

Rolled WDC 8/18 85 CC to 9/1 for 1.44 credit. Brings cost basis to below 86, one more roll and will be profitable.

Rolled 8/18 WDC 84 CC to next week for 0.85 credit. Cost basis now 86.15, one more roll to profit.

That’s it for another week. Have bunch expiring in 1-2 weeks then will have some $ to start the SVXY/UVXY/XIV/VXX experiment with @fuzzballl with the synthetics and LEAPs trades.

Recent discovery and follow-up to…

Recent discovery and follow-up to cover calls versus rolling puts.

With the rebound WDC I am back to break even after 3 weeks after a 17 point drop. However the covered calls have recovered quicker than the put rolls. Bottom line is that is probably more efficient to accept shares and convert to covered calls instead of continuing to roll the puts. It will still take me another 3-4 weeks to break even on the put rolls which is money that remains tied up. The CC will close next week giving me money to trade with again.

Sometimes better to sell an ITM covered call instead of a put on the weeklys especially on stocks that have an upside bias. Looking at a trade on SVXY the other day at the 76 strike, the covered call would have made $1290 on 10 contracts and the put only $1100 on the same number of contacts. The extra money would more than offset the exercise and assignments fees and just as easy to roll the calls. Plus rolling the calls usually gives you more capital gains as well.

BTFD strikes again. Or in…

BTFD strikes again. Or in our case SOTFD (sell options on the FD). Wish I had not been so busy this morning. Would have sold SVXY puts and some SPY/ES puts this morning at the open but was too busy.

Oh well, will close out positions in next 1-3 weeks then reload. Hopefully people keep buying SPX puts to keep the VIX up.

Leveraged ETFs with decent option volume and premium.

Rained all day here Sat. so took a few minutes to find more leveraged and contango ETFS. Here are some with decent volume on the options. Would need to work the spreads but if selling adding liquidity so could probably get them filled at decent prices.

Bears: SDS, SQQQ. That’s all I could find with weeklies with decent volume. I know some of you also trade DUST and DRIP

Bulls: SSO, UPRO, TQQQ, UDOW, FAS, ERX and some of you trade the gold leveraged and GUSH.

These are all leveraged so have great premiums and also fast decay rates. The trade off is high volatility but isn’t that the point with how most of us trade?!

Will add these to the watch list and pair with SVXY/UVXY trades.

Hope everyone had a great weekend!

#VXX game I have been…

#VXX game

I have been dissecting the XIV/VXX system marketed by one of the option companies and think I have a better version for the bistroers which many of you are already doing. As I clear out some margin I will start it with a few contracts and keep it rolling TT style. Sell 45 DTE delta 16 or so options and roll as they decay.

So when the VIX heads into backwardization like today, this service goes long VXX when it reverts to contango they close VXX and go long XIV. We can do the same with SVXY and UVXY but with a turbo because of the options.

Sell puts on SVXY and calls on UVXY after a volatility spike or both for the turbo effect. Then when we hit backwardization can sell puts on VXX or go long UVXY stock and get called out on the sold calls. As short as the spikes seem to be I would use short dated options, especially on the VXX. Or if you sold puts on SVXY just take delivery of the stock and then you are long on the reverse anyway.

I know most of you are doing this and I am preaching to the choir but thanks to all of you I am learning how to play VXX game as well and just thinking out loud about ways to keep it rolling long term and make more profits along the way.

Looks like everyone did well today, once I fixed my margin issue I had no problems and should come out ahead in a few weeks.

Cheers, Chris

#s

Rolled WDC 9/17 90 put…

Rolled WDC 9/17 90 put to Jan. 2018 for 3.57 credit.

Brings cost basis down to 85 and change but allows me to stay in some other positions now. Kind of backed myself into a corner with some margin but now everything can stay open.

Don’t know about the rest of you but TOS has done some weird stuff with margin as soon as vol. picks up, even on cash secured stuff. Will need to speak with them to see what they are doing and why they all of a sudden calculate you need more money when it is clearly covered.

At least now I can leave the XBI and SWKS ladders open to let theta do it’s thing.

Rolled WDC 87.5 call this…

Rolled WDC 87.5 call this week out 1 and 2 weeks to 84 and 85 calls for 0.77-0.90 credits. Cost basis now 87 and change on assignment at 90. I suppose I could short the stock because that will make it go back up. 1 up day in 2 weeks…….

BTC SWKS 9/8 100 put for 2.05. Sold for 3.03 on a roll a few weeks ago. Break even trade. Would have let it sit but need so extra margin to take advantage of the sentiment change.

I may roll a 37 DTE WDC 90 put out to Jan 2018 for 3.45 credit just to bring in some cash for some other trades. Have to figure out where I want to move it first.

Recovery experiment

So WDC dropped 16-17 points after earnings. I had small positions on several accounts. Options Income Blueprint suggests that with a big drop like that quicker to break even by taking delivery of the stock and selling covered calls than to keep rolling the put.

So I have taken the stock on half the accounts and am rolling the puts on the other half. 3 weeks in looks like the covered calls are winning. Rolling the puts I am only able to get about 0.20 of time value each week but selling the covered calls a few strikes OTM can take in 0.50-0.70. So the cost basis is already lower on the CC than the rolled puts and with even a slight rebound can get out at even.

If you are willing to sell ATM and roll the calls can get $1-2 per week which would make break even quicker but would probably have more adjusting. Will take me about 3-6 more weeks to fix them all the way but both work.

I think the CC is quicker to recover, just ties up more capital. The bottom line is a long as you know your cost basis and eventually close out the trade above your cost basis you will come out ahead and much easier with names that have weekly options.

SWKS ladder

Rolled the 8/11 103 put to 9/1 101 for credit of 0.83. Sold for 7.97 originally off an adjusted roll when the stock dropped 16 points in 2 weeks.

After 3-4 weeks of rolling nice to finally be out of that one with a good profit.

STO WDC 8/18 84 calls…

STO WDC 8/18 84 calls at 0.83 and 85 calls at 0.72 against assigned positions. Will take about 3 weeks of rolling to break even and a few more weeks to make extra cash on it. Already have cost basis into mid 87s, assigned at 90 but currently sitting at 81 and change.

STO XBI 9/15 74 puts at 0.98. Resetting the ladder. Had to close a few early last week to open up some margin so I could take delivery of the wdc puts/stock.

BTC 8/25 XBI 72.5 puts…

BTC 8/25 XBI 72.5 puts at 0.35. Originally sold at 2.25 as part of a roll so profitable on the original position.

I could have left it but want some extra margin to help adjust the WDC drop which would be a good #fallingknife candidate now. All time high 2 weeks ago, down 16 points now.

WDC rolled next week 90.5…

WDC rolled next week 90.5 to 2 weeks out for 0.15 credit. I had no decay and just want another week or 2 to manage before I take more shares and trying to keep some margin open so I can follow some of you on these other trades.

That’s all I have today. Everyone have a good weekend!

SWKS rolled this week 104…

SWKS rolled this week 104 put to 9/8 100 for credit of 0.20. 4 points down and still a credit. There was still some time value left but I have been assigned early this week on options that still had time value and not sure I would have time to adjust it tomorrow.

Also I am noticing my ladder trades do better than selling weekly options. Easier to adjust and more space between the current price and the strike price. As i unload stock now will re-establish some ladders in a few names. Right now only have ladders in SWKS and XBI.

Assigned early on WDC 90 puts.

Sold 87.5 8/11 calls at avg of 0.40. Brings cost basis down to 87.6. Hopefully a little bounce next week, roll the calls for a few weeks then let them get called out and start the process over again.

I sill have a few short puts at 90 will let them be assigned tomorrow and sell calls Monday against the others.

This is not an ad,…

This is not an ad, just something I find ironic at this time. Don Fishback has released a new service based on VIX trading. It is either long the XIV/VXX depending on volatility. From what I can tell most of the time it is long XIV which is similar to SVXY or the VXX or UVXY when vol spikes. Some of you have been doing this for years with the SVXY/UVXY trades. I think they are charging $1495 for it for a year.

Full disclosure, I took some of Don’s classes when I was learning and they were legit. Even priced fairly when they were on special/sale and has shaped my trading since and he predominantly sells options. But no need to spend money on something we have been doing for years. Maybe we should package our trades and sell them? Ha ha…….

VXX has options but XIV does not. Probably better to stick with our SVXY/UVXY trades so we can sell options and play both sides in both directions. Plus the contago effect of the SVXY/UVXY makes buying options on these an up hill battle or gives the sellers a tail wind. Even with VIX up slightly today SVXY is up and UVXY is down. Nice headwind!

In the long run the house always wins! To take a quote from one of their services, always be the house.

Rolled WDC 90.5 puts from…

Rolled WDC 90.5 puts from this week to next for 0.21 credit. There was only 7 cents of decay left.

Will hold the 90s until later in the week, they still have some time value left.

STO 5 9/8 75 puts…

STO 5 9/8 75 puts at 1.06.

WDC earnings

Rolled a bunch of 90 and 90.5 puts from this week to next for various credits from 0.27 to 0.32.

If it keeps going down next week I will separate them and start to ladder.

Big support and long term support at 86 where it is now @fuzzballl

What happened?!

I went kiteboarding for 5 hours and when I came back multiple positions are now ITM…………..when I left everything was where it should be.

IRA small account trade

BX diagonal. Had CC but was exercised early for dividend. This account already has a stuck position until Jan. 2018 expiration with some leaps on EEM so can’t do much until then.

BTO Jan 2019 25 call and STO Jan 2018 33 call for debit of 7.02. Does not look like much, only 3 contracts but is a 47% return for 176 days anywhere above 32.

No trades until expiration Friday…

No trades until expiration Friday but had some thoughts and observations. Sorry about the long post but most of you probably have the similar thoughts.

Don’t know about the rest of you but it seems my adjusted trades are the ones that pay the most once they finally become profitable. Especially true with rolled puts.
Sometimes an ITM covered call has better returns than a naked put and if the put is deep ITM sometimes quicker to get back to even by accepting shares and converting to covered calls.

I tend to do better in the long term with hard assets. Stocks, ETFs, because if assigned you have a hard asset. Futures can be hedged but once ITM they respond differently and harder to offset with the stock or other options. Also the margin requirements get funky once ITM.

Trading as a group has given me some ideas that I would not have realized otherwise. That has increased the returns dramtically and good to be here and part of the group. Keep the ideas flowing and THANKS!

Underlyings with weekly options are much easier to adjust and roll and I don’t think I will be trading anything that does not have weekly options in the future. No more /CL or /GC futures but may restart /ES strangles once VIX back above 12.

Compounding is hyperactive with weekly options. I am making more hitting singles and doubles by trading every week than by having the occasional home run. Trading every week except when on vacation is like pumping nitrous into the turbo on my car, rocket fuel on speed for your account balances.

I no longer look at trades as a single transaction. Now I look at trades as a series of positions with the ultimate goal of being profitable and can roll options into eternity or I stop breathing.

Thanks and hope I am giving everyone else some ideas as all of you have given me new trade ideas and underlyings I had not considered. Love the SVXY/UVXY trades on volatility spikes!

More trades Fri. or Mon. depending on how expiration and earnings work out and hope everyone has a good and profitable week.

Cheers, Chris

BTC SWKS 8/18 92.5 put…

BTC SWKS 8/18 92.5 put for 0.25. Sold for 1.15.

Freeing up margin for later in the week and next week, hopefully we get a pull back and some volatility.

WDC reports tomorrow and should be able to roll or close those positions. In limbo until then but enjoying some crazy theta decay levels.

Snapped off a bunch of…

Snapped off a bunch of trades at lunch but did not have time to post until now.

BTC
SVXY 7/28 50, 62.5, and 55 puts at 0.03, 0.03, and 0.05. All sold for 1.10 or higher pre split
SVXY 8/4 57.5, 62.5 puts at 0.1, 0.11, and 0.12. All sold for 1.10 or higher pre split
SVXY 8/11 52.5 puts at 0.35 and sold for 1.25 pre split. This was to release a little margin.

STO
WDC 7/28 puts 90 at 1, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.91. (each drop was the time it took to change between accounts) That is some fierce time decay!

The WDC trades are earnings play but will probably roll back into ladders next week and if they go ITM easy to roll this one down a point or 2 each week. Strong support at 86 if it breaches so could also convert to covered calls.

For those interested you can get better return this week on WDC with ITM covered calls. At lunch the 90 CC was trading for 88.21 so good return if called out. I was in a hurry so just hit the put button but could get better return with ITM cc and so skewing to upside despite the drop this morning.

After a week on vacation,…

After a week on vacation, had some trades that needed to be cleared out.
Because of trading I look forward to Mondays. At least I didn’t have any trading withdrawal symptoms while on vacation.
Your posts kept me updated on the market, thanks.
BTC SWKS July 28 95 puts at 0.05, originally sold for 1.25
BTC XBI July 28 76.5 puts at 0.12, originally sold for 1.02
Also the August 4, August 11, and August 18 XBI 76, 73, and 72 puts for 0.19, 0.17, and 0.21 and had all been sold for over 1.00. Did this mostly to free up some margin so I could go big on the WDC trade as somewhat of an earnings play, report on July 27.
Sold to open the July 28 WDC 90.5 puts at 1.04. I probably will not set up another ladder, the premiums seem to be high enough to sell weekly’s for a while. Once the premiums drop would reestablish a ladder.
Also sold to open XBI September 1, 77 puts at 1.10.
Because the market was up last week and I had a lot of theta decay I made more money on vacation that I would have made at work, that is always fun!
Looking at some other names that still have good premium despite the low volatility and will post those later in the week.

Thurs trades. My day off…

Thurs trades. My day off so usually trade then.

Rolls
SVXY 7/14 115 puts to 8/11 puts for 1.2 credit. Initially sold for 1.25
SVXY 7/14 115 puts to 8/4 for 0.79 credit. Sold for 1.25
SVXY 7/14 125 to 8/4 for 1.29 credit. Sold for 0.99
Trying to roll SVXY 7/28 110 put but tradestation seems to be having some connectivity issues at the moment. Will try after bike ride.

I now have nothing expiring next week for vacation but still have a ton of theta decay so will make money while kiting, boating, and generally hanging out on a beach, nice! Selling options is a good skill to have.

Hope everyone has a good week, Chris

Rolled SWKS Jul 21 95…

Rolled SWKS Jul 21 95 puts to aug 18 92.5 puts for .50 credit. Sold for 1.2 and there is still a lot of time value left but with the market up taking advantage of the roll today. On vacation next week and now nothing expiring next week so if the market does something stupid I have another week before have to adjust anything.

A few more rolls tomorrow then will take a week away from trading but the theta decay will still be working!

STO XBI Aug 25 72.5…

STO XBI Aug 25 72.5 puts at 1.09. Had more margin left over so added another week to the ladder. Now have 5 weeks running and just waiting on theta decay.

For some reason I am…

For some reason I am getting free alerts. If anyone is interested they just posted a put protected Goldman sachs long call diagonal whiz style.
BTO jan 19 170 call
STO July 17 230 call
BTO Jan 19 180 put at 72.60 debit

I have not looked at the trade, just FYI.

XRT, XLE popped up on…

XRT, XLE popped up on tasty trade IV rank radar today.

My weekly screen with some of the tools I have showed good premiums in EXPE (don’t know when earnings) and /ES just triggered a 4 hour sell signal this morning. The 4 hour signal is usually good for the next week and about 80% accurate.

Light trading week for me, vacation next week so most of my trades will be to re-position so I don’t have anything expiring next week.

STO 8/18 XBI 72 puts…

STO 8/18 XBI 72 puts at 1.07. Ladder complete. now just need time decay to work it’s magic.

Rolling, rolling, rolling, keep those options rolling!

Rolled SVXY 7/10 110 puts to 7/28 110 for 0.65 credit
SVXY 7/7 150 puts to 7/28 125 for 1.65 credit
SVXY 7/17 95 puts to 7/28 100 for 1.3 credit

All were sold for 0.85-1.5 a few weeks back.

On vacation week of 7/21 so trying to move strikes a week out so don’t have to trade that week. We will be on Nantucket so can get internet if needed but more fun to kiteboard and hang on the beach with the family.

Reached a long term goal, was trying to get theta decay to over $400 across 7 different accounts, hit it this week with daily theta decay of $484. If I can keep that level long term may make more trading than working and I guess that would be considered professional level?!

Bunch of trades and efficiency of capital

Rolled SWKS 7/14 105 put to 8/11 103 put for 0.20 credit. Sold for 1.2 but now 7.55 ITM so moving strikes down each week until it bottoms.

STO SVXY 7/7 150 puts at 1.15

Rolled SVXY 6/30 to 7/14 125 put for 0.59 credit.

STO SVXY 7/21 110 put at 1.01

Added week to ladder XBI 8/11 73 puts at 1.09, now have 3 weeks. Add one more week next Thurs. then hopefully start harvesting profits.

I think on IRA accounts the SVXY/UVXY trades may be the most efficient use of capital. On margin accounts probably /CL or /ES but agree with @fuzzball having weeklies makes it much easier to manage trades. With weeklies I have recovered trades that moved 10+% against me. Hard to do that with only monthly expirations.

Hope everyone has a good expiration, I am done trading this week and going to meet friends at the beach for kiteboarding after picking up daughter from camp!

Chris

BTC Jul 28 WDC put…

BTC Jul 28 WDC put at 1.01. Sold for 1.4

TOS doing some weird stuff with my margin account so closing profitable positions to clear up the margin issues. Easier than trying to call them at the moment or trying to sort it out on line. They seem to be handling margin accounts like an IRA at the moment. Could not get an answer yesterday as to why.

BTC July 14 wdc 85…

BTC July 14 wdc 85 puts at 0.55. Sold for 1.24

#fallingknife I am short SWKS puts but it has dropped 15 points in 2 weeks and appears to be a good falling knife trade now. Next support level at 96.61.