#Earnings – Great timing…LOL
Plan for now is to close the short puts (depending on how the open goes). Then…open synthetic stock positions in EBAY and PYPL out to next Jan. Should only add a few pennies to the weekly sales requirement to cover it.
We shall see….
Sold the 44 DTE /ES 2955 call as the market was pulling back for 3.55. That gives strangle at 2575p and 2955 c, 2 contracts. Of course after hours now the market is up again. For those that wanted the SMI settings I will post later, crazy at work and the code is on an old computer and have to dig it out.
Jan 31 #Fuzzy Land
Hello Everyone! Goodbye January, you were incredible! Good day here, the mix of long and short Fuzzies netted out for green today, hedges worked great, F-bears worked great.
1. ANSS took Fuzzy profit just shy of my target on a price spike, will look to get back in
2. Closed a tiny DIA long fuzzy on the highs today
3. Added 25 SPY Fuzzy Bear contracts across several accounts. Mar283/283/285 @ 2.58 with a 278 hedge @.84
4. Rolled DIS hedge collecting $550 profit
5. Rolled CAT hedge collecting $1270 profit
6. Opened new EA fuzzy on UOA, Mar 130/130/125 for 1.21, no hedge yet (the UOA was a buy of Mar 135 calls, + June 135 and 140 large call buys)
7. Rolled JNJ hedge collecting $400 profit.
8. Yesterday I cut the KBH fuzzy for $2400 loss, saved a little by selling one round of calls on it, sold Feb 30-strike puts to recoup a little (or not).
9. Rolled IWM hedge collecting $330.
Fuzzies that need management this week: CELG, 1-MU, 1-QQQ, 1-SPY,
Total Closed Fuzzy Profit: $49,383; Hedge collection on open positions: $24,260
Oh, one thing I forgot to add: Trader’s Almanac has been pretty good so far this year. It shows tomorrow (Thur) is the biggest day for bulls for the whole month of February. 🙂
#RocketManHedge – Great market for these…double dip selling Friday.
Bought to Close SPX JAN 31 2018 2820.0 Put @ 0.30 (sold for 5.00)
Sold SPX FEB 2 2018 2820.0 Put @ 7.00
$FB #ShortPuts – Sold 1 FB FEB 2 2018 175.0 Put @ 1.12
Immediate fill
#SPXcampaign Today’s action is not too pretty and it looks like the Downside Warning may hang on the market longer. I’m selling these as hedges against my short put spreads. If we move much in either direction tomorrow, there will be rolling.
Sold $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 10.40.
Sold $SPX Mar 2nd 2925/2950 call spreads for 1.55.
#Earnings Closed these two puts as they take up margin and I have retained the majority of premium. These recouped my losses from earnings short calls and left me with a small profit on the trades.
BTC $NFLX Feb 2nd 260 put for .30. Sold for 2.55 on Jan 26th.
BTC $NFLX Feb 16th 240 out for .74. Sold for 3.30 on Jan 23rd.
#Earnings – Wouldn’t mind getting into #SyntheticStock on a pullback so aggressively selling half size here. Maybe get lucky and it takes off, otherwise double up and load up lower.
Sold PYPL FEB 2 2018 85.0 Put @ 1.92
Sold PYPL FEB 2 2018 84.0 Put @ 1.50
Sold PYPL FEB 2 2018 83.0 Put @ 1.13
Sold PYPL FEB 2 2018 82.0 Put @ 0.86
Sold PYPL FEB 2 2018 81.0 Put @ 0.64
SPX going up mistake going down
HOG #FallingKnife
Sold $HOG May 18 42.50 puts @ 1.20 with the stock at 48.94
The ten year treasury is still going up in yield and this bothers me. If it gets to 3% it will not be good for the stock market. I think it is going to get there and after that, I am not sure.
#Earnings Yesterday sold $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 1.25. Just closed one short call for .66. (4 more to go). Scaling out as premium drops.
Rolled KSS 65/63 BuPS from Feb 2 to Feb 16 .26
Increased Cr to 44.50 after Comm
#Earnings – Earlier in the week sold some fairly aggressive puts at 170, 167.5, and 165 bringing in nice premium. Just to make sure I have a reasonable starting point to enter a synthetic stock position if it tanks, I’m using a small portion of the premium received to buy some protection down at a twice the expected move level. I wouldn’t think it would ever go that low but then again I didn’t think I’d be running from hurricane IRMA for 10 days either…LOL Buying a little insurance while the sun is shining… 🙂
Sold 3 puts originally and buying 5 puts here.
Bought AAPL FEB 2 2018 155.0 Puts @ .27
#Fuzzy – STO WYNN Feb02’18 175 calls @ 0.90. This ticker might give me whiplash.
#Earnings This one has not moved much on recent earnings, so doing a neutral #IronButterfly.
Sold $VRTX Feb 2nd 160/167.5/175 IB for 5.75, 5.56, 5.48 (total of 3, avg price 5.597 — I could only get 1 to fill at a time, and kept having to lower my ask).
Biggest UP move: 7.8%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.9%, Average move: 2.5%.
Risking 2.15 to make 5.59. Breakevens at Friday’s expiration: 161.91 and 173.09, or about +/- 4.3%.
Here are its last 12 earnings moves: -2.1%, -4.4%, 0.7%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 2.7%, 0.3%, 5.1%, 7.8%, -0.4%, -5.9%.
#Earnings Sold $BABA Feb 2nd 200 puts for 3.60. Biggest UP move: 7.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.8%, Average move: 4.0%. This trade is -2.5% OTM.
This one is a juggernaut that I don’t doubt will hit 1,000 in a few years (maybe just a couple). So if this aggressive trade results in stock assignment, I’m okay with that. -8.8% was its biggest ever down move back in Jan 2015. Since then, its moves down have been fewer and smaller.
Breakeven after commissions…
Bought to Close AMD 12/12.5/13/13.5 iron flies @ .40 (sold for .44)
Earnings are on February 1, tomorrow.
For March 9 expiration
BTO 207.5 call
STO 207.5 put
BTO 205 put as insurance. Total cost of 8.50 plus the 2.50 spread.
#Earnings Sold $FB Feb 2nd 175/205 strangles for 1.52. Also, previous sold and extra 175 put for 1.60.
Biggest UP move: 15.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.6%, Average move: +/- 4.0%. Bias + 1.6%.
My strikes are -7.3% and +8.1% OTM, respectively. The previous 15.5% up move is an outlier from Jan 2016. The second biggest up move was +7.2%
$SQ #shortputs Sold Feb 16th 44 Put @ 1.00 when SQ was at 46.11. Earnings Feb 27th.
#ShortStrangles – Going in again after booking yesterday. Re-centering below the 200ma and near all time highs…
Sold WYNN MAR 9 2018 140.0/195.0 Strangles @ 2.38
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX March 2nd 2690/2665 put spreads for 1.65.
We’re still under the Downside Warning, but given recent market trend it seems more likely we’ll go up from here, at least for a day or two. But I’ll be cautious until VIX drops below 11.00.
Looks like I missed this one yesterday
STO Feb 23 $74.5 puts @ $0.40
#SPXcampaign Got about half my money back from the put spread purchase and sold another one…
Sold to close $SPX Feb 2nd 2780/2755 put spreads for .95. Bought right after the closing bell yesterday for 2.00.
Sold to OPEN SPX Feb 2nd 2800/2775 put spreads for 2.25
#shortputs
$MZOR BTC 2/16 60 put at 1.80 STO for 8.60 on 12/27
$AMZN BTC 2/2 1240/1250 BUPS at .40 STO 1/19 at 3.00
/ES trades 23/5 and did not have time to trade today, so I am looking at legging into a short strangle. Nice boost to premiums with the still small vix spike. Will probably leg in, tech indicators are about to give long signal. Went back to SMI, percent r still too whippy even with the longer settings. See below and if you want the smi settings I can post. To be honest, I personally like /es better than spy or spx. Better margin, more trading hours, easier to hedge with a smaller $ amount, good liquidity, and better margin treatment.
So signal just printed while I am writing this. Selling the 45 DTE 2575 put at 7.5 (went through). I will wait on the call side in case this is another BTFD. This is a delta 8 option.
#Earnings – Nice pullback after hours. Could be one to consider tomorrow…
#SPXcampaign After a fairly dull afternoon I entered a Feb 2nd put spread after the bell. Couldn’t decide whether to buy or sell it. Then I decided I would sell it, so entered a sell price, and… I bought it. I forgot that I had “BUY” selected. I left it because I’m still net long on SPX so this’ll be a nice double or triple if we gap down again tomorrow.
Bought $SPX Feb 2nd 2780/2755 put spreads for 2.00
Jan 30 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Guys! Quite a day today. Lots and lots of activity for me, hedges and protection working overtime.
1. I’ve got a decent number of Gorilla Fuzzies now (Fuzzies based on the Gorilla Trades Portfolio). These are all very small lot, mostly unhedged, with 50% GTC targets: ANSS, APH, BAH, BLDR, DAL, FLIR, IDTI, MYGN, PX, STZ, TSEM, VFC. Let me know if you want specifics.
2. Earnings run-up fuzzies: Open right now are ANSS, FLIR, VFC, MKSI (must be closed tomorrow), NTGR,
3. Closed one SPY Fuzzy bear today when hedge was blown, netted $1070.00
4. Opened new QQQ Fuzzy bear: Mar 169/169/171 @3.07 with Feb 9 164 hedge @.62
5. Closed VIX fuzzy for $530 profit on a 5-lot. I thought this VIX fuzzy was a really nice strategy. Any time we get a VIX pullback these will be layered in on the portfolio, unhedged.
6. LMT was a new fuzzy I opened yesterday, Mar 350/350/345 @ 7.83, it was hedged with 360 calls, closed those today for $2100 profit and reset at 355 for next week, based on trend exhaustion. Those may prove to be too tight.
7. Opened a new MCD fuzzy today (on the drop) for income, it did really well last month when I had it on. Apr 170/170/165 @ 4.88 hedged w/ feb9 175 @ 1.06.
The day was all about Fuzzy Bears, VIX fuzzy, Hedges and Protection, yay for those!
STO February 20, bull put spread, 2600/2700 @ 3.90,a small trade.
#shortputs SBUX
Sold Feb. 16, 56 put for .55, appears to have bottomed
#Earnings – Selling tight iron fly…
Sold 12.5/13/13.5 @ .44 (risk 6 to make 44)
#Fuzzy – BTO WYNN Mar’18 170/170/165 Fuzzy for 7.28, but just 5 contracts (wish I’d bought more now!). Unhedged for now. Thinking about closing it as a day trade, it’s really taken flight.
#SyntheticStock – These are very low margin and low risk. Adding one or two more about every 20 point drop for now.
Added Jan 2019 115/115/112.5 Synthetic @ 34.50
37 max loss with 51 weeks to go. Need .73 per week for worse case so:
Sold Feb 2nd 120 calls @ 1.22
#ShortPuts – Sold 1 SVXY APR 20 2018 70.0 Put @ 3.52
#SyntheticShortStock – Small roll of the weeklies…
Rolled TLT FEB 16 2018 122.5 Puts to TLT MAR 2 2018 122.0 Puts @ .12 credit
Rolled Feb 2 45 to Feb 9 .30 #Hedge
#shortputspread WYNN
Sold Feb. 15 145/155 for 1.20, Bottom feeding maybe
#SyntheticStock – Aggressive sale so if these catch any heat my AAPL should be looking good…
Bought to Close MU FEB 2 2018 44.5 Calls @ .18 (sold for .60)
Sold MU FEB 9 2018 43.0 Calls @ .98
#SyntheticShortStock – Only hedged on half the core but rolling it down a little anyway…
Rolled NUGT FEB 9 2018 32.5 Puts to NUGT FEB 16 2018 32.0 Puts @ .14 credit
#ShortStrangles – Nice gain in 24 hours…I’ll book it.
Bought to Close WYNN FEB 16 2018 140.0/180.0 Strangles @ 2.29 (sold yesterday for 3.95)
We’re awfully close flipping to backwardation. http://vixcentral.com/ At last read, months 1 and 2 were only .05 apart.
If that happens in any meaningful way we should really see an acceleration of SVXY to the downside (and UVXY to the upside).
STO January 2019 45 puts @5.93, a 13.17% return if it expires at zero but, I would be happy to be assigned at that price.
At the highest strikes available. Sold:
$DUST Sep 21 32 call @ 2.70
$DUST Jan 17 2020 40 call @ 4.50
Sold these this morning (so far):
$SVXY Feb 16 85 put @ 1.45
$SVXY Feb 16 83 put @ 1.40
$SVXY Mar 2 75 put @ 1.30
$SVXY Mar 16 60 puts @ 1.04
$SVXY Apr 20 50 put @ 1.25
$SVXY Jun 15 40 put @ 1.28
$UVXY Mar 2 20 calls @ 1.10
$UVXY Mar 16 30 calls @ 1.03
#Schwab If anyone is having problems with StreetSmart Edge, it is not you. I’m on with them and they are having reports of problems. So yeah I just got the “it’s not you, it’s me” bit thrown back at me 🙂
#Futures – Scalp good for a half point…
Sold /VXG8 @ 14.25
Bought /VXG8 @13.75
#Fuzzy – I don’t have a good feeling about the upcoming AAPL earnings with rumors of stagnant iPhone X sales. Plus need more clarity in the market in general. Seems like MU is on the precipice to give me a bigger loss than I want to take. I overstayed my welcome on this one, it was making decent money until recently. STC MU Apr’18 45/45/40 Fuzzy for 0.20 debit, bought for 0.88 on 1/02/18. BTC MU Feb02’18 45.5 calls for 0.12, sold for 0.30. Net loss on the trade is $72.66 (a little more than 0.07 on 10 contracts).
#SPXcampaign As we meander sideways we are mostly making higher highs and higher lows. Hard to tell whether downside is already finished. Since delta on this spread is high, took 1.25 profit and closed it.
Closed $SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 12.70. Sold right after the open for 13.95.
#shortputs
$WYNN STO 2/16 150/160 BUPS at 2.84
#VXXGame Made these trades at various points this morning, was in a meeting when the real spike happened so totally missed my chance there. Just waiting now to see what happens later today/into the close.
STO SVXY Feb 9 $95 puts @ $1.15
STO SVXY Feb 16 $80 puts @ $$0.80
STO SVXY Feb 16 $87 put @ $1.45
STO SVXY Apr 20 $50 put @ $0.95
STO SVXY Apr 20 $55 put @ $1.59
STO SVXY Apr 20 $60 put @ $2.07
STO SVXY Apr 20 $65 put @ $2.60
STO UVXY Feb 9 $17 calls @ $0.42
STO UVXY Feb 16 $22 calls @ $0.45
STO UVXY Feb 16 $11.5/$13.5 call spreads @ $0.60
STO UVXY Feb 23 $20 calls @ $0.70
STO UVXY Mar 2 $20 calls @ $0.71
Bought my UNP Feb02’18 135 calls back for 2.44, sold for 1.09. Going to roll later today hopefully when the stock gets up to 137 again. Hope I don’t get burned waiting.
#Earnings Sold to Open $EA Feb 2nd 110/130 strangles for 1.27. Leaning on bullish side due to historical performance and trend. Biggest UP move: 13.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -7.5%, Average move: +/- 5.4%. Bias: +2.35%. My strikes are -7.0% and +9.9% OTM.
#SPXcampaign On the bounce, closed $SPX Feb 23rd 2735/2710 put spreads for 2.80. Sold last Wednesday for 1.60.
If we get another nice dip here, I will be able to sell more rolls.
#Earnings -Missed my chance to close this a couple days ago. Unloading it here for breakeven and covering commissions…
Bought to Close URI FEB 9 2018 172.5 Puts @ 2.20 (sold for 2.25)
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Sold $SPX March 2nd 2680/2655 put spreads for 2.05, 1.5x position size, as a roll from stopped Feb 23rd spread.
STO Feb 9, 85 puts @.75
STO March 2, 75 puts @1.30
#VXXGame Sold $UVXY Feb 16th 16 call for 1.05
Closed $VXX Feb 16th 25 put for .10. Sold for 1.15.
Stopped $VXX Feb 2nd 26 call for 5.35. Sold for 1.35 on 1/23. Will roll to another ITM call at some point.
STO Feb. 16, 85 puts @1.25
STO Feb. 23, 85 put @ 1.70
March 2, 85 put @ 2.50
March 9, 85 put @ 3.10
March 16, 85 put @ 3.70
March 9, 75 puts @ 2.05
#SPXcampaign Stopped $SPX Feb 23rd 2750/2725 for 2.95. Sold yesterday for 1.70. Will roll later when we are down more.
Sold SPX Feb 9th 2825/2850 call spreads for 13.95. Maybe only a day trade.
#SPXcampaign The question is, when do we get the bounce? I closed my most endangered put spread yesterday. Only one other was hitting its stop point before the open, so I will roll it down. I may also sell an ITM call spread as a one or two day trade, and perhaps some OTM if I can find good ones.
For the bounce, I want to sell ITM or ATM put spreads. If I miss timing I can grit my teeth through lower prices and wait for the bounce, and roll if necessary. I will likely wait to BUY call spreads until bounce seems clear, and then more with a new Upside Warning.
Bounce could be today or tomorrow, unless we are in for something bigger. With the biggest earnings announcements this week and next, I think it would be tough to go full-on correction now.
Good Morning
Another down day at the opening. Yea!
IBD Investor’s Business Daily IBD Weekly – 2018 Best Online Brokers survey. Week of Jan 29
Top Overall Customer Experience – 1. Fidelity (F), 2. Charles Schwab (CS), 3. TradeStation (TS), 4. TD Ameritrade (TDA), 5. Interactive Brokers (IBD).
Low Commission & Fees – 1. IBD, 2. F, 3. CS; 4. TS, 5. Merril Edge (ME).
Trade Reliabilty – 1. F, 2. IBD, 3. CS, 4. TS, 5. TDA.
Site Performance – 1. F, 2. TS, 3. CS, 4. TDA, 5. IBD.
Customer Service – 1. F, 2. CS, 3. Scotttrade (ST), 4. TDA, 5. ME.
Research Tools – 1. F, 2. CS, 3. TS, 4. TDA, 5. ME.
Options Trading Platform – 1. TDA, 2. TS, 3. IBD, 4. F, 5. CS.
Mobile Trading Platforms – 1. TS, 2. IBD, 3. F, 4. TDA, 5. CS.
Other categories not recorded: Equity Trading Tools, Investment Research, Low-Cost/Free ETF Trading, Portfolio Analysis & Reports, Educational Resources, Trade Ideas, Inv./Ret. Planning Tools
Surprised that Fidelity was so consistently high, oh well, TOS one down…good night, y’all.
#SPX Campaign
$SPX STO 2/23 2725/2750 BUPS at 2.10
Closed Early (Under duress)
$SPX BTC 2/9 2900/2875 BECS at 9.00 STO at 1.65
$FCX STC 2/2 19 call at .85 BTO 1/23 as earnings trade at .88
#shortputs
$SVXY STO 2/23 90 put at 1.15
#VIXIndicator Looks like the official $VIX close is 13.84 (also high of the day), which is over 50% higher than the Dec 20th low of 8.90. This activates a Downside Warning, leading to a likelihood of lower prices in the coming days or weeks. Downside Warnings can sometimes be false flags, but most often the are followed by subsequent dips or corrections, either immediately or in the coming days. It also means any bounce this week is more likely to be followed by a drop next week.
Since I recently revised this trigger to be based on closing VIX prices rather than intraday, I am still compiling data for the last 18 years. I may be able to post some more details today, but feel free to ask any questions if you have them.
Had a couple more orders fill while I was away this afternoon
STO $SVXY Feb 9 $100 puts @ $1.00
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $55 puts @ $0.60
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $60 puts @ $0.80
STO $SVXY Mar 16 $70 puts @ $1.30
#SPXcampaign Closed $SPX Feb 2nd 2830/2805 put spreads for 4.60. Sold for 6.75 on 1/23.
The day is not over yet, and even a small bounce will avert a downside warning. But clearing most immediate and highest-striked spread.
In a small IRA that I manage, I STO January 2019 60 puts @ 9.60
Sold $UVXY Mar 2 20 calls @ .66 with UVXY at 11.04. Highest strike.
#VIXIndicator A close above 13.35 would trigger one. Looking to close some put spreads to take some risk off.
STO February 16, 80 puts @.60, putting my toe in the water at the 80 level.
Options Bistro 