smasty 8:55 am on Friday, June 1, 2018
Tags: AtomicAlligator, CoveredBackRatio ( 11 ), CoveredCalls ( 2,202 ), Saf-T ( 12 ), UnbalancedDiagonals ( 3 )

June 1 #CoveredBackRatio #CoveredCalls My…

June 1 #CoveredBackRatio #CoveredCalls

My week is just about done. For this week I had sold $9,574 in premium, and have collected $$8,189, that’s an 86% collection. As @MamaCash says, this has been a perfect few weeks for “covered’s.”

MSFT: I had to close an #AtomicAlligator trade due to peak T+1 profit line. Netted about $1400 total. The Atomic Alligators may become extinct now due to recent trade design evolution. They were fun!

TWTR: Needed an emergency debit roll, rolled Jun8 34 to jun15 36. I had to pay .87 for $2.00 gain.

ISRG: MM’s are always difficult on this. I rolled Jun1 465 to Jun8 467.5. I was only able to pocket $60 on the Jun 1 but this “roll into strength” gives me a ton of premium for next week, $5.45, + 2.50 in add’l head room. Oops, I see the new strike is blown already, I will watch extrinsic for full position close. 11:00 am update: closed out of full position for $1215 net profit.

RHT: Rolled Jun1 165 to Jun8 167.5 for $282 net on June 1.

CRM and NVDA executed share call.

One note on #UnbalancedDiagonals vs #CoveredBackRatio I’m finding I need to load them in a risk graph side by side and view P/L performance at up-and-down price points. It’s not a given that UD’s are always better than CBR’s. The extra work to compare the two creates “edge.”

One last note on a new trade called #Saf-T trade. I have a little cash that needs a lot of protection. So I loaded a trade into the backtester that brings a return better than a CD/money market, but very safely. It’s kind of a twist on the Unbalanced Diagonal, coupled w/ a collar. SPY: Buy 1000 shares, Buy qty 9 45-DTE 40 delta puts, Sell 8 7DTE 40 delta calls. You’ll notice I’m doing 1 put short of full protection, which bumps up performance just a tad. It adds 1% to the 2 year performance. The rolling calls need to finance the puts, plus add a little extra. This would be managed like a covered call: 1. allow shares to be called, 2. debit roll, 3. credit roll.

Here’s 2 year and 6 month performance numbers (these numbers do not include div payments):
SPY 2 year: 10% return, Net $26,992 6 month: -1.1% return, Net -$3,068
QQQ 2 year: 8.2% return, Net $13,681 6 month: +1.4% return, Net $2048
TQQQ 2 year: 46.1% return, $112,000 6 month: +9.1% return, Net $29,592

I put this on in both SPY and TQQQ today. We are a few weeks away from dividends on these.

smasty 7:15 am on Thursday, May 31, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), UnbalancedDiagonal ( 32 )

May 31 #UnbalancedDiagonal LMT This…

May 31 #UnbalancedDiagonal LMT
This seems like an appropriate name for the trade developments from last night? The Unbalanced Diagonal replaces the back ratio with a time ratio. It should accomplish the same or better (significantly better on a directional trend) outcome with slightly less risk. I absolutely love the collaboration last night on this!! Thanks @fuzzballl for your discovery weeks ago of the time ratio!

Sue

Here’s my first trade:
LMT 1. Bought 5 Sep 310 calls @19.00 2. Sold 3 Jun8 320 calls @ 2.57
Max Risk: $8729, Weekly return on risk: 8%

#fuzzy

smasty 10:09 am on Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Tags: pietrade ( 143 ), supercharger ( 160 )

May 30 Extrinsic is my world today

What a day! I have a boatload of premium sold against synthetic stock that expires this week. My whole world right now is scrolling through extrinsic values to catch the right time for rolls or closures.

TSLA: I’ve got a double-sided position here hedged with both puts and calls, rolled both today from June 1 to June 8 collecting $699 on the roll. June 8 275 put/300 call (that 300 might be tight!!).

SHAK: I did a small CoveredBackRatio on this due to it being at all time highs….high begets higher though. I did a debit roll for .28 to capture an additional 1.50 upside. I’ll usually only debit roll once on these. SHAK has already blown the new strike, so I’m watching extrinsic value for the exit point.

TQQQ (pre split): Ditto on above. .29 debit for 1.67 add’l upside.

AMZN: Trying to get a full position exit on this for around $1450 profit. There’s still about $3.00 of extrinsic in my DITM short calls. No rush, but need to keep an eagle eye on it. Update: filled for $1443 profit in one week. Flat AMZN now but will look for a reset.

A few other things with hedges ITM, but enough extrinsic still to wait a bit: CRM, ADBE, RHT, GRUB, TWTR, NVDA.

#pietrade, #supercharger

smasty 1:09 pm on Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Tags: CoveredBackRatio ( 11 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

May 29 Trades

Just two little trades today:
1. GRUB calls on #Fuzzy Leap decayed to .12 so rolled to Jun 15 106. Pocketed $800 in the roll, which is 5.1% of risk (Return on Risk) in 12 days.
2. TWTR #CoveredBackRatio Sep 30/33 12×8 @8.94 (Total risk = $8.94×400=$3,576). Sold June 8 34 calls @ .73, short call = 8.2% RoR. TWTR position is equal to $32.86 stock price, current price is $34.10.

smasty 1:43 pm on Sunday, May 27, 2018
Tags: CoveredBackRatio ( 11 )

May 27 TWTR idea #coveredbackratio…

May 27 TWTR idea #coveredbackratio
I goofed on that last message that went out, I had a lock on pricing and needed to change the % below:

Found a good trade here on TWTR, the return on risk is annualized at over 210% (selling 14DTE calls) vs holding shares (CC) @ 57%. Evaluating these trades based on ROR makes them compelling.

1. Sep Backratio: +12 30 calls/ -8 33 calls, @9.15, for 400 equivalent shares, max risk = $3660 vs $13,452 holding 400 shares. The BackRatio deltas are 391 on a 400-share stock replacement.

2. Then sell 14DTE calls, the June 8 34 call @ .74 (x4). $296/$3660= 8% per every other week, *26 weeks = 210% return.

TWTR just joined IBD big cap 20

smasty 8:46 am on Friday, May 25, 2018
Tags: BECS ( 60 ), CoveredBackRatio ( 11 ), pietrades ( 240 )

5/25 Tying up the week!

NFLX: The market makers got $.05 on the close. A couple week’s worth of #PieTrades brought in over $1500. Reset with #CoveredBackRatio “Cobras”. Dec 305c x 3/Dec 350 c x-2 ($125.15) Plus June 1 357.5 call @4.01. For 100 delta/100 shares of stock replacement.
Stock cost basis is $342.65. Net risk right now $12K.

TQQQ: Added another tranche Sep 50c x 6/Sep 56call -4 for 200 share stock replacement, Jun 8 58 call @.60. Stock Cost Basis: $55.30, Net risk: $3400

CVX: Rolled down calls from June 1 130 to June 8 127, added an additional #BeCS. Pocketed $174 on the roll, but struggling to keep up with underlying decline. New basis = $125.11

IBM and CRM are still left to manage: IBM I will allow May 25 to expire and open June 1 $144 call closer to the close. CRM has earnings next week. I was hoping the stock would be called, but I will roll to ITM calls for next week.

BABA: Added another tranche. Oct 175c +4, Oct 195 call -2, Jun1 202.5 call -2

Everyone have a SAFE weekend!!! Don’t get too sunburned! Military folks THANK YOU A MILLION TIMES for your service. I heart you!

smasty 3:42 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2018
Tags: CoveredBackRatio ( 11 )

5/24 Trades

BA: This is a put diagonal that I have, I rolled puts from May 25 to June 1 and added an extra short put, collected $161 for the roll

BA in a diff account: Added a #CoveredBackRatio. @MamaCash has now dubbed these “Cobras” (from CBR). Nov 320/355 8×4, June 1 360 call @2.76, Stock cost basis is $352.83.

NTNX and VEEV: Closed both of these positions in advance of earnings, netting about $482 exclusive of previous rolls

IWM: Rolled calls from Jun 1 to Jun 8, the Jun 1’s didn’t have any juice left. Netted $150 on the roll

The only thing left for tomorrow is NFLX (share call), CRM (pennies away from share call, ER next week), IBM (roll)
Of the $11,613 in sold-premium that I started with for the week, it looks like $8,587 will be my realized amount.

smasty 10:55 am on Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Tags: CoveredBackRatio ( 11 ), pietrades ( 240 )

May 23 Rolls #PieTrades #CoveredBackRatio…

May 23 Rolls #PieTrades #CoveredBackRatio
LMT x 2: Closed Jade Lizards for this week capturing $820 in profit, about 40% of max, but close to max on the graph position. Flat LMT right now. The campaign to get a stock assignment for 300 shares (for div) brought in $2820 in 3 weeks. Abandoning pursuit of div at this point.
BABA x2: Rolled calls from May 25 to June 1 collecting $303 on the roll. #CoveredBackRatio Cost Basis $195.88
NVDA: Rolled calls from May 25 to June 1 collecting $686 on the roll. $257.5 assignment now has a basis of $244.57
MA: Rolled calls from May 25 to June 1 collecting $136 on the roll. #CoveredBackRatio Cost Basis: $188.81
SHAK: New Covered BackRatio Dec 52.5c x 4, -57.5c x 2, short June 1 58.5, Starting cost basis: $57.17

Last Sunday night I added up all the sold premium for May 25 expiration. TT says plan on keeping 25% of sold premium. Sunday night I had a total of $11,613. As of today $6,542 of that has been booked. Still to manage this week: AMZN, BA, CRM, IBM, NFLX.

smasty 8:58 am on Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

May 22

MU: I took $4200 profit on a covered LEAP #Fuzzy. One thing I know about MU is it has always provided good re-entry points (pull backs) after rallies.
MSFT: Rolled #AtomicFuzzy covered calls from May 25 to June 8, 100’s, collected $470 on roll
ISRG: Rolled LEAP fuzzy covered call from May 25 480 to June 1 465, collected $380 on roll
SPY x 3: Closed May 23 Jade Lizards for 50%, collected $991
SBUX: Added short backratio yesterday on news that non-paying guests are now free to displace paying guests, at shareholder expense. July 4×2 put backratio (60/57.5). I’d like to add to this or ladder in a longer expiration.
RHT: Added Dec bullish covered backratio: 150 c x8 + 160c -6, short 165 c x2 @1.50
ADBE: Added Oct bullish covered backratio: 230 c x10 + 240 c -5, short June 1 245 call -5 @2.14

smasty 3:19 pm on Sunday, May 20, 2018
Tags: CoveredCall ( 58 ), pietrades ( 240 )

May 20 Covered Call Data Table

Cold and rainy here in Denver, good day to just look at data. I have an interesting report here for you on #CoveredCall performance, also tied to #PieTrades. Let me first lay out the process I took. 1. I ran a scan on TOS for high yielding calls over a 7-14DTE ( http://tos.mx/oIfUU7 DO NOT CLICK THE LINK, instead use your “Setup Sprocket” and “open shared item”, then copy/paste the link) . I ran it on “weeklies” so ETF’s would be included. That gave me about 108 tickers. Then I ran a 2-year covered call backtest using 10 lots on everything: Buying 1000 shares and selling 10 50-delta calls with a 7DTE on everything. From that test I selected only tickers that yielded over a 50% Return-on-Risk over the two year test. Then I figured that looking at the last 6 months on each of those vs 2 years would look quite different–given the market conditions we’ve experienced. So on just these tickers I also ran a 6-month backtest. Surprisingly there is only ONE ticker in the list that has a negative return over the last 6 months (RCL). “Win Rate” in the backtester means at expiration the trade had a net profit. At expiration the backtester virtually rolls calls to the next expiration using closing prices. There are no filters here for liquidity, other than using only weekly tickers with over 1M volume daily. Sorry the columns are wonky, I didn’t want to search out the BB code for table inserts 🙂 This might give some good ideas to y’all for #PieTrades or #CoveredCall targets. With the filters I used almost any one of these would be a good pick, but there are some standouts.

Ticker: 2 year net return: ROR%: Win Rate: 6-month ROR%

ADBE $81,890 ADSK $58,780 AMZN $507,000 ANDV $48,953 AXP $29,913 BA $147,000 BURL $58,460 CME $54,932 EA $61,020 HCA $35,878 IWM $36,640 KSU $44,723 LULU $29,725 LYB $39,646 MA $60,176 MAR $51,397 MON $76,134 NFLX $1.49M NOC $92,967 NOW $98,575 NSC $54,856 NVDA $121,000 PSX $43,519 RCL $40,886 RHT $60,550 SPGI $60,780 STZ $65,779 TQQQ $151,000 TTWO $50,260 TXN $30,708 UNH $65,685 UNP $48,904 V $39,786 VLO $47,877 WDAY $67,845 WYNN $68,710 69% 82% 29%
86.1% 81.5% .9%
64% 70.5% 28.7%
64.6% 74.3% 14.5% SCRATCH due to acquisition
56.9% 73.3% 4%
77.6% 76.2% 36.1%
85.1% 82.1% 41%
56.1% 70.5% 23.4%
93.4% 75% 33.8%
69.6% 71.4% 38.5%
43.9% 72.4% 8.2%
76.5% 69.5% 15.6%
59.2% 67.6% 58.5%
60.1% 72% 10.7%
61.7% 75.2% 22.1%
68.1% 79.3% 19.1%
115% 80% 32.5% (scratch due to Bayer takeover)
129% 60.6% 30.1%
50.8% 78.9% 10.4%
113% 76% 35.4%
67.5% 72.4% 14.3%
95.1% 76.2% 18.9%
67.7% 78.1% 21.7%
58.5% 72.9% -8.9%
71.9% 79.2% 27.7%
59.3% 76.3% 21.1%
55.4% 85.7% 14.8%
83.8% 71.4% 10.9%
85.9% 82.4% 4.3%
51% 74.3% 2.9%
51.8% 74.3% 12.3%
64.5% 74.3% 20.2%
59.7% 77.1% 12.5%
72.6% 78.1% 30.4%
88.3% 75.2% 13.3%
67.8% 67.6% 24.6%

smasty 6:39 am on Friday, May 18, 2018
Tags: BigLizard ( 3 ), CallButterfly ( 17 )

AMZN

The big thing I’ll be watching today is AMZN, since I have an ITM naked put on it. Last Friday watching it pin 1600 was a beautiful thing. There is adequate OI on the 1600 line today to support a move back up there again. If I’m going to keep playing AMZN it’s got to be done more safely, with one of our stock replacement structures. If I do take assignment, I’ve designed a “#SharkFinHedge ” that has a max loss of about 1/3 of my next call sale to provide about another $10 downside along w/ the new call sale for next week. Here’s what the hedge looks like: May 25 1565/1555/1550 broken wing put butterfly for about $2.00 debit. Keeping these tight with DTE means they move more quickly with underlying price movement. I also will sell calls near the close in advance of assignment. Stay tuned!

#callbutterfly

#biglizard

smasty 5:18 pm on Thursday, May 17, 2018
Tags: pietrades ( 240 )

Music of the Week

Jeff, is this a new feature? Love it!!
Shoot it disappeared, it was in the right-side column.
Let me add a couple trades on here so this post has some bit of use:
CRM: rolled calls from May 18 to May 25. $131 stock assignment now has a cost basis of $127.20 #PieTrades
BA: Rolled puts on a put diagonal from May 18 to May 25, Cost Basis on a long put diagonal has moved up from 324.20 to 331.45 due to income collection. 64 days left on the trade for income collection.
GRUB: Took 70% profit on short puts for tomorrow and flipped the trade to a Jan 2020 Leap (100/100/90) with Jun 1 short calls. Leap core @ 21.60, Jun 1 106 calls @ 1.80.

In play for tomorrow:
AMZN Naked Put @ 1600, cost basis is 1578
NFLX Covered Call ITM, cost basis is 322.85 on a $330 assignment #PieTrades
NVDA ITM Naked Puts @ 257.5, cost basis is 250.69 #PieTrades
NTNX ITM Covered Call, not sure cost basis
LMT Jade Lizard is still in the sweet spot for nice profit

smasty 8:45 am on Thursday, May 17, 2018
Tags: BackRatios, pietrades ( 240 )

Liz and Jny #BackRatios I…

Liz and Jny #BackRatios
I highly recommend watching this video from yesterday’s TastyTrade show. I have been missing a lot of TT in the last few months, but by total accident I caught this segment yesterday. This isn’t your normal backratio. They have found a design that mimics stock 1:1 for a fraction of the expense/risk. It works for both long and short setups. I have immersed myself in this design for the last 24 hours using all different kinds of ratios to get close to a 1:1 delta. Put this in the bucket of long call diagonals and fuzzies for stock replacement, but still with income potential.
The key to their design is you sell 1 ATM call or put, then look to buy 2 ITM where the intrinsic will cover the credit received on the sell. If you do a 1×2 you are free to sell “1” in a front month for income, and be risk defined. Use your risk graph to massage the ratio until you get the delta you seek. 3×5, 6×8, 3×4, you get it.

Here is an example from me this morning: I had on 2 naked puts for MA for tomorrow expiration, risk was over $38,000 on 200 shares of stock. I wanted to redesign a trade with $5,000 at risk. I closed those puts for 60% profit this morning and opened an October 8×6 back ratio. I sold 6 190 calls and bought 8 185 calls, the resulting delta is a little less that owning 200 shares of stock. In addition I sold 2 (8-6=2 for risk defined income) May 25 195 calls for .76. My total risk in this trade is $4821 and it will move almost 1:1 with stock.
Sue

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/calling-all-millionaires/episodes/calling-all-millionaires-05-16-2018

#pietrades

smasty 11:39 am on Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Tags: BigLizard ( 3 ), JadeLizard ( 130 )

May 16 SPY Put Roll

I had a lot of 273 naked puts for today’s expiration (BTW, I love using Wed expiration for assignments so I don’t have to wait for over a weekend to hedge in 401K accounts. In non-401K I will sell calls in advance of assignment but you can’t do that in 401K accts). I was able to cover my puts for 25% profit today, then I flipped them to #BigLizard trades.
SPY May 23 -272.5p/-272.5c/+273.5c for 2.03 cr. Doing a Lizard brought in 25% extra premium vs. doing an ATM put only. Break even is 270.47 on these.

It looks like I will get an assignment on $274 SPY shares. Rather than sell calls-only against that position, I will explore a reverse Jade Lizard to bring in some put revenue, similar to a covered strangle, but less risk. I’ll update this after the close.

Sue

#jadelizard

smasty 3:30 pm on Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Tags: BigLizard ( 3 ), godzilla, JadeLizard ( 130 ), twistedlizard

May 15–LMT

Not a ton of activity today, I have on enough ITM naked puts that I need to see what shakes out this week before taking on anymore risk.
LMT: I’m still stalking a share assignment for dividend (2.00 div on 5/31) (you guessed it…for Daddy! The “D-word” makes his old eyes light up). Turns out I’ve made way more than the dividend by stalking the dividend, which is as it should be. I’ve done 3 rounds of ratio spreads now, all closed for 70-80%. After closing a 3×5 spread for this week, I put on a #BigLizard #JadeLizard . A Big Lizard is a Jade Lizard using the same strike short put/calls (straddle) plus the protective call. Like a Jade Lizard, if done for a credit greater than the width of the call spread there is no upside risk. By adding the call credit spread onto the naked put, additional premium is collected pushing down that lower break even. I really wish I’d done more Big Lizards this week on stuff vs. naked puts. Here’s my trade:
May 18 -320p/-320c/+322.5c for net 3.62 cr. Since 3.62 is greater than the $2.50-wide call credit spread, there is guaranteed profit to the upside, no upside risk. The break even is figured by simply subtracting net credit from the put strike: $320 – $3.62 = $316.38. I’m running all my LMT’s with 3 contracts.

Sue

#godzilla, #twistedlizard

smasty 1:58 pm on Monday, May 14, 2018
Tags: pie ( 5 ), pietrades ( 240 )

5/14 Trades

Happy Monday everyone!
AMZN: #PieTrades sold May 18 1600 put for $11.15 (last week received full profit of $1071 on a CC)
CVX: Daddy loves his dividends. Bought him some shares for 5/17 $1.12 div this week (@130.23) sold May 25 133 call for .41, will watch to be sure I stay out of the danger zone on the short call w/ div this week. Playing oil shares for div’s has bit me in the past, but he just really really loves dividends, much as I try to explain reality to him.
TSLA: Added @fuzzballl ‘s trade to balance out the short I have on it (Jan 2020 290/390 bull spread with June 1 310 short call). So much drama envelopes this stock, having both sides on sounds good to me. TSLA is like that famous “Daughter/Sister/Daughter/Sister” scene from Chinatown. $100, no $500, no $100, no $500. 🙂
BABA: 1×2 spreads for this week closed for 70-95% profit, added naked puts for friday 197.5 strike for 1.91 cr for #pietrades assignment
GRUB: A top IBD stock, sold puts for Friday 101 strike @ 1.50 cr for #pietrades assignment
MU: Added a new Fuzzy: Jan 19 55/55/47 @3.69, May 18 55.5 call @
SEDG: IBD50 new #1, closed ITM naked puts from last week for 82% profit. It only has monthlies.
SPY: A bunch of 1×2 put spreads closed at the open for 70-80% profit. Added in a few Wed naked puts for #Pie assignment. 273-274 strikes for .71-1.09.

That’s about it for today
sue

smasty 9:25 am on Friday, May 11, 2018
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), OptionsExpiration ( 794 ), pie ( 5 ), pietrades ( 240 ), supercharger ( 160 )

#OptionsExpiration Here’s an early expiration…

#OptionsExpiration
Here’s an early expiration report. I’ve been thinking about @hcgdavis Chris’s #PieTrades ever since his first post. I never really got serious about them, despite being intrigued. I finally decided in the last few weeks that I absolutely needed to build a portfolio strategy and not just a trading strategy. What better way than his? Of course I probably don’t follow the rules straight down the line, but here’s a report for some Pie-like trades this week:
1. AMZN: On Wednesday when the stock was at 1600, I purchased 100 shares and sold ATM calls for $11.35. Assuming AMZN closes above 1600 today shares will be called away for total profit of $1071 in 3 days. I will sell an ATM put for next Friday at the close today. AMZN is inching down and might be shooting for a 1600 pin….it would be fun if the shares aren’t called and I can roll calls into next week.
2. CVX: Nice dividend next week, so I sold ITM puts last night for assignment. I sold $129 strike for .76, closed them this morning for 87% profit. With next week being div week, I will sell puts before Ex-Div to be virtually paid the dividend immediately.
3. IBM: I did the same div play mentioned above for CVX this week for IBM, sold the put priced with added div premium, could have taken 100% profit, but closed it yesterday for 80% profit. I already have 100 shares with calls sold for next week. The income stream on IBM from #Pie has completely covered the post-earnings decline in underlying.
4. NFLX: This will be my first assignment in a long time. Earlier this week I sold 1 $330 put for $3.10. It’s dancing in and out of profit today, but I’d like to take the shares and sell a juicy call for next week.
5. NVDA: I sold ITM puts at the open this morning and later covered them for 83% profit. I sold 257.5pfor next week @ 4.34.
6. SPY: I sold ITM (272) puts last night for either a scalp or assignment today. They were covered at 50% profit.
7. CRM: I sold ITM puts yesterday ($131) for assignment, I will seek 70% profit on those today or assignment.
8. MA: I sold several puts on MA this week and took 70% profit, but I’ve got 190 (@.94) and 192.5 (@1.60) lined up for next Friday.
9. I’ve got 1×2 spreads on for next week on BABA and LMT. In a choppier market I like the idea of 1×2’s for a wider downside range. But in an uptrend, straight naked puts are better for higher premium collection.

It’s just in my blood to cover these puts at a 70%+ profit level vs. taking the shares, even when I know it may be more lucrative to get the shares and sell the call side. I’m progressing! BTW I’ve started using IBD scores to find my #Pie candidates. Of all the stocks listed above probably IBM, CVX, LMT are the weakest in regards to IBD scoring.

#fuzzies, #supercharger

smasty 1:10 pm on Thursday, May 10, 2018
Tags: VIXIndicator ( 294 )

3-of-5, got it!

Today we achieved 3-of-5 bars in SPX with a greater than 1-standard deviation up move. As a reminder, at the end of last year I began looking for patterns on standard deviation pricing for crash probability. I found a rolling score of 6-8 1SD up moves in a rolling month began to prescribe danger (manic buying). After our Feb crash I went back to 1987 looking again for a pattern that historically would lead us out of post-crash chop into a fresh trend. I found that 3-in-5 consecutive bars with a 1SD up move was the right pattern for which to watch. It’s taken a long time to get here, now it’s time to prove it out.
I have a mix of 1×2 put spreads, fuzzies, and naked puts sprinkled around to take advantage of, what I hope is, a fresh bull trend.

Sue

#vixindicator

smasty 11:13 am on Wednesday, May 9, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

2 of 5? It’s looking…

2 of 5? It’s looking like we’ll get 2 of 5 consecutive bars hit a 1-SD up move. I’m jumping the gun a tad and putting on a “melt up” #Fuzzy. I’m going out a little longer on this since it could still fail.
QQQ June 167/167/164 @ 2.82 debit. Prices on fuzzies have come in a lot today. No hedge, for max delta, right now. This is already up 15% since I placed it about an hour ago.

sue

smasty 12:10 pm on Thursday, May 3, 2018
Tags: pietrade ( 143 ), pietrades ( 240 )

#PieTrades with the LMT ex…

#PieTrades with the LMT ex div approaching in a few weeks, I’m adapting the Pie Trades for assignment. Rather than sell puts, I’m selling 1×2 put ratios just to get a tad more downside. This week’s trade covered today for 78% profit. Opened a new one for next week (May11): +1 307.5 put, -2 305 put for net cr 2.06, BE is $300.44.

#pietrade

smasty 5:26 pm on Sunday, April 15, 2018

Noise

Don Miller’s video over the weekend has grabbed a lot of attention on twitter. Here’s the link:
http://donmillereducation.com/journal/2018/04/13/the-weekend-trader-eliminating-market-noise/

smasty 1:52 pm on Friday, April 13, 2018
Tags: Alligator, AlligatorFuzzy ( 3 ), Atomic, Fuzzy ( 414 )

#Fuzzy Land–Alligators and Atomics :)…

#Fuzzy Land–Alligators and Atomics 🙂 (and Atomic Alligators)
Hi Everyone! Pretty soon this craziness will begin feeling like normal. I’ve got a nice mix of #Alligator traps and Alligator snaps and Atomics that are keeping my account balance relatively stable. After the conversation w/ @fuzzballl on my last post about Alligator Fuzzies, I put the suggestions side and by side and landed back on my original configuration for them. They work really well for long side and short side configs. My SPY beta-weighted deltas are 700, that’s pretty low for me, but it’s giving me stability.
GLD–I’ve got a long #Atomic Fuzzy on this, so no short term hedges. June 128c/128p/125p x 10, 130/134 call credit spread x 14.
FB–I’ve got an Atomic Alligator on this one, a combo. It’s kind of a franken trade w/ mixed expirations, but it’s a short trade around a May 25 165/165/167.5 Fuzzy bear.
IWM–Lots of Alligator traps (bullish) on this, May 153c/153p/150p/ 156c/159c / 156c.
JPM–Today on the dip I put on an Atomic Alligator: May 110/110/105 x 5 @2.08, 115/120 call credit spread @ .99 x 10 (this gives a core trade debit of .10), Apr 20 113 call @ .61 cr x 5.
Q’s and SPY: This is where I have layered in a lot of mixed Alligator traps (bullish) and Alligator Snaps (bearish). It’s a lot to keep an eye on, but having both sure helps with stability on account balances.
SPX: I’ve got a 1-lot Alligator Snap (bearish) on this: May 2665c/2665p/2670c/ 2615p/2595p 2615p

I can imagine someone new reading this post will be scratching their head. I think you can pull the #AlligatorFuzzy for an explanation of the Alligator setup. It’s a mix of a regular fuzzy and Atomic fuzzy. But hit me up if you have any questions.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Sue

smasty 3:36 pm on Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Tags: AlligatorFuzzy ( 3 ), AlligatorSnap, AlligatorTrap, Fuzzy ( 414 )

#AlligatorFuzzy Ok, here’s the latest…

#AlligatorFuzzy
Ok, here’s the latest entry into the #Fuzzy family.
Backing up a bit, there’s something every #Fuzzy has in common: A combo trade of a 2-part synthetic (long or short) coupled with protection for full risk definition. 3 legs, all the same expiration.
A Regular Fuzzy (the original one named after @fuzzballl) then uses short dated short hedges for trade debit recovery and weekly income.
An Atomic Fuzzy eschewed the short dated short hedges for a double size hedge using the same expiration as the core fuzzy–solving the problem of runover hedges.
Regular Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, weekly income
Regular Fuzzy Cons: Protection very expensive in high vol, hedges frequently get runover
Atomic Fuzzy Pros: Efficient use of capital, risk defined, partial-to-full financing of protection (particularly useful in high vol)
Atomic Fuzzy Cons: No weekly income, which increases directional risk

Combining these two trades into a new trade solves the cons on both trades–it is essentially a Fuzzy Diagonal. There are two versions, an #AlligatorTrap is bullish, an #AlligatorSnap is bearish.

This trade uses both a long dated hedge (matching the core expiration and quantity) and short dated weekly hedges. The trade, in essence, has a triple hedge! Hedge #1: Core protection, Hedge #2: A credit spread using the core expiration, Hedge #3 A short dated short hedge. Believe it or not…perfectly legal in a 401K. I will be attaching a slide showing risk graph setups, a proper diagonal setup on the risk graph should significantly reduce the hedge runovers.

Here is the exact trade setup that I did last week for a long on SPY (captured on the attached slide)
SPY May monthly: +263c/-263p/+259p (this is the core fuzzy) @5.62 debit, then add a CCS 269/273, same qty, @1.55 cr. Then enter the weekly income hedge: Apr 6 270c @.63.
Particular setup rules: 1. The 3-leg core debit = “X” 2. Use ATM + X for the anchor short leg of the CCS. Those 5 legs should give you a “ledge” type risk graph where the ledge is solidly above 0. Finally add in the short dated short hedge–the best graphs work up with the calls at the same strike as the CCS anchor on the long dated core, or higher.

Everything can be reversed for a bear trade. Here’s an Alligator Snap (bear)trade I did on QQQ this morning:
Jun -157c/+157p/+160c @ 5.09, 152/147 PCS @ 1.34 cr ($157-$5=$152 for anchor). Then an Apr 6 152 short put @ .77. This puts the starting trade debit at $2.98. Accrued credits on rolling the short dated hedge will attack that trade debit. The bear side of this trade, due to put skew, will allow for more lucrative put rolls in an uptrending market.

So, in conclusion, this trade brings the best parts of the regular fuzzy (weekly income) and atomic fuzzy (protection financing) together. Check out the attached slide for risk graph setups, let me know your questions. I have about 8 of these trades on right now, 6 traps and 2 snaps. I’ve already rolled short hedges from last week.
Thanks to @MamaCash for the creative name…I was just going to call it a Fuzzy Diagonal….but Alligators are way more fun 🙂

smasty 1:19 pm on Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Tags: AlligatorFuzzy ( 3 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), VIXIndicator ( 294 )

2 of 3 of 5: Not yet!

Y’all know I’m keenly watching for 1-standard deviation up moves in SPX. We need 3 1SD up moves in a 5-bar window (for historical rally confirmations). We got one on Thursday. Today’s slipped through the fingers, darnit. We got a .933–the rule is it must cross 1.0. Wed and Thur still fall into the 5-bar window.

#AlligatorFuzzy anyone? I have a new #Fuzzy! I believe this is the best one yet. The love-child of regular fuzzy and atomic fuzzy. I will do a full write up on it maybe later tonight. I really think you will find it very compelling.

Sue

#vixindicator

smasty 3:39 pm on Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Tags: IronCondor ( 244 ), pietrades ( 240 ), PutRatioJadeLizard ( 2 )

FB update

Hi everyone! The FB #PutRatioJadeLizard from yesterday was closed today for 33% profit. My target was 50% but, as you know, when a underlying hits the right-side slope of a Jade Lizard risk graph the accrued profits start dropping off. But I opened a new #IronCondor on it. Because the alternate sides have different strike widths I skewed the contract amounts.
Apr 20 150/155/182.5/185 5×7 IC (5 on put side, 7 on call side), net credit 5.83, BE 153.80/183.30

I plan to layer in a lot of SPY Put Ratio Jade Lizards whenever there’s a 20DTE on the chain.
Today: Apr 11 +273p/-272p x2 @2.37cr, -275/277 CCS @ .69 cr

A long time ago I wrote about waiting for a 3-of-5 bar 1-standard deviation up move before trusting a rally. It’s looking like that might be a good rally indicator, only because we can’t seem to barely get a 1-SD up move at all. In SPX we now have 16 straight bars I think with a 20-day 1SD up move rolling total of 1. I’ve only found 3 times in history going back to 1987 where we’ve gone this long with so few 1SD up moves. It speaks to the choppy nature of markets, and to not get faked out on rallies until a solid string of 1SD up moves unfolds. I’m watching it every day, will obviously keep posting about it.

Sue

#pietrades

smasty 12:07 pm on Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Tags: PutRatioJadeLizard ( 2 )

FB #PutRatioJadeLizard I’m focusing on…

FB #PutRatioJadeLizard
I’m focusing on 3-way trades now…theta positive trades with wide profit ranges that will make money with an underlying move in any direction. Lately my fav trade is to combine a put ratio spread (the pit-traders’ fav) with a Bear Call Spread for a Put-Ratio-Jade-Lizard. Here’s the trade I did today on FB:
Apr 6, bought 160 p x 2, sold 157.5 put x 4 for 2.35 net credit, 170/172.5 Call Credit Spread for .70 cr x 2, total credit is 3.05, since it’s greater than the CCS-width there is no upside risk. Break even is 152.60, with max risk being assignment of 200 shares of long stock at that level. So, that allows for a substantial continued downside move, or not. I did the trade awhile ago, it’s already up about 25%.
Sue
p.s. anyone else having trouble w/ email updates on posts? nevermind, my browser notifications were disabled somehow.
p.p.s Nice background Jeff!

smasty 1:25 pm on Monday, March 12, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

March 12 #Fuzzy Land Very…

March 12 #Fuzzy Land

Very excellent day here. All of the unhedged #Fuzzy that I opened on Friday were closed today for over 50% profit–and I pretty much had a lot of them. Q’s were reset and again closed for a lot of profit. Closed Fuzzies for the quarter now have a 47 handle! I’m still shooting to regain that 50 that I had in January.
Opened some new unhedged Fuzzies today in SPY, but when I saw resistance and rising VIX I atomicized them. Here is an example:
SPY #AtomicFuzzy April Expiration: 280c/-280p/277p @ 2.93 x 21 contracts, 284/288 Call credit spread @ .92 x 36 contracts.
I’m flat on Q’s right now, they are showing signs of trend exhaustion right now, so I’ll be patient for the right entry.

smasty 3:53 pm on Sunday, March 11, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Mar 11 #Fuzzy Land +…

Mar 11 #Fuzzy Land + how to make $700 the easy way
Hi Bistro Buds! Last week was a bit of a roller coaster huh? On Thur, before NFP, some technical health indicators I use looked a bit weak. So I took profits on all the index #AtomicFuzzy hedges and closed 1/2 of the core positions. Little did I know what a smart move that was. Remember the Atomics have a double size hedge, so the double hedge covered all the losses on the 1/2 core, then set up the remainder cores for the big move up on Friday. I got lucky, but I try to only get lucky once, then it goes in the tool box for future intentional moves. I realized what an important trade the Atomics are for high volatility, however because they are more expensive, the profit targets need to be tighter. The double hedge in the Atomics accommodates higher volatility, but when profits appear, they need to be taken quickly since profits will appear in declining volatility–which affects the protective legs of Fuzzies.
Friday I took off almost all of the Atomics, and replaced them with regular unhedged #Fuzzies that are free to fly in a “risk on” environment. The price of April Fuzz’s has come down by over 30%. Indexes are my focus. I also took the opp, in a still-elevated vol environment, to put on some of my favorite 20DTE 25/23 delta SPX bitties.
We received our very first 1-Standard Deviation up move on Friday since the big down moves aged off. I think everything is looking rosy. I’ll be watching carefully for follow through early this week on market activity. The closed Fuzzies for the quarter has a 5-figure 35 handle now.

Oh I almost forgot….”How to Make $700 Easy”…. On Monday after hours when the market tanked on the Cohn announcement, I bought TEN TEENSY shares of AMZN. I thought it was ridiculous….how could 10 tiny shares help me in any way? Well…you know the answer to that now. This is going in the toolkit.

Good trading this week for everyone!

Sue 🙂

smasty 4:20 pm on Friday, March 2, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), FuzzyBear ( 22 ), SelfAssignment ( 2 )

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self…

March 2 #Fuzzy Land: Self Assignment
Hi Bistro Friends! I did a #SelfAssignment on MSFT today, converting naked puts into an #AtomicFuzzy. I really like selling 3-4DTE naked puts on MSFT on dips. Been doing it for 18 months it seems, with assignment always assumed but never realized. Today finally was the first chance for assignment. So I chose to do self-assignment into an #atomicfuzzy.
Original trade: STO MSFT Mar 2 94 puts for .72 closed for 1.90, loss: $1118
Atomic Fuzzy: BTO MSFT Apr 92.5/92.5/90 x10 w/ 95/97.5 Call spread for -.80 x24
A move to 94 can get me back to even with a fraction of the risk vs. taking stock assignment. There’s a hockey-stick graph above that for gains.

Atomics have become a big focus for me. I partitioned funds last week for a “hedge fund” type approach to them. Timing may be off a bit…but serious testing is in progress. I haven’t said much about this, but I think there is a ton of edge in these trades….just working on proving it out now. Even though they have nice risk control, they still need a rising market for performance. So, just laying in wait now for that to happen. I was able to take a lot of profits on previous Atomics last week. The CLOSED fuzzy profit for the quarter is now $32,994. But, I’m under water on my newest fuzzies. I was able to use #FuzzyBear trades this week to gain a few k’s.

I had a bit of an epiphany this week regarding a previous post I did that showed we need 3-of-5 one standard deviation up moves before a rally can be trusted. I’ve been watching every single day for even a 1 standard deviation up move and we haven’t had it. I realized that the huge SD down moves tamp down any further SD’s until they age off the averaging. So there’s a coincidental relationship between what I thought was 3 1-SD up moves and the big SD down moves aging off. What I thought was a wait for 3 1SD up moves was probably actually a wait for the big SD to age off, which gives it time to retest lows while waiting. Anyway….if any of this makes sense to you, welcome to my brain. The big SD down moves age off my system in the next 2 trading days. Then there should be more realistic SD data to evaluate.
Have a great weekend everyone!

Sue

smasty 2:41 pm on Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), UOA ( 12 )

Feb 21 #Fuzzy Land Hi…

Feb 21 #Fuzzy Land
Hi there everyone! It’s been a couple days since I’ve posted, but I didn’t want to bore you with the same trades. As it turns out, I’m really liking the #AtomicFuzzy! The built in hedge is working really great this week. I was having problems sleeping over the weekend, when I can’t sleep I plan out trades in my head. The first trade I mapped out was a series of laddered SPY fuzzies in Apr/May/Jun, unhedged, totaling 250 contracts (across multiple accounts) when fully built. This would equal 25,000 shares of SPY, total risk approx $175,000, with about $87,500 profit on every $5.00 up move in SPY (assuming .7 delta). That was a fun dream. The next night I designed the same trade but as an Atomic Fuzzy. 250 contracts, risk is now aprox $87,500, and a $5 move in spy = $43,750 (assuming .35 delta).
I’ve got Atomics now on SPY, QQQ, TBT, JPM (based on #UOA today–Mar 120 calls). 45 SPY contracts, 40 in QQQ. I won’t be adding anymore unless I can get some good strike diversification.
Q’s: May 166/166/164 @ 5.86 170/175 Call Credit Spread @ 2.00 double size.
SPY: Apr 272/272/270@ 5.91 278/283 Call Credit Spread @ 1.69 double size.
There’s a chance we’re entering a range bound market here for awhile, meaning I will need to be opportunistic on taking profits, vs if we are in a trending market (that’s another reason why I went heavy on Atomics vs Unhedged). But I am trying to set up longer term trades that require little management. I do realize that SPY and Q are heavily correlated. Until more profits start getting booked, it’s still an experiment! BTW, Atomics won’t work on Fuzzy Bears due to the put skew, you can’t get enough selling put spreads to even come close to covering the cost of the protective calls.
Sue
p.s. My 45 SPY contracts have about $18,000 total risk, for virtual control of $1,215,000 of SPY shares. The beauty of fuzzies! I probably won’t post a lot unless some of these start coming off, or need some kind of management.

smasty 1:34 pm on Thursday, February 15, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Feb 15 #Fuzzy Land Whew!…

Feb 15 #Fuzzy Land
Whew! Sea sick anyone?
1. Closed yesterday’s SPY #AtomicFuzzy for 41% profit on the core trade, total of $580. During the brief market swoon today I thought I’d take the profit. I didn’t anticipate the huge up move that followed.
My future Atomics will be set with April expiration unless I specifically want a quick flip.
2. Opened a new AAPL Atomic Fuzzy: Apr 170/170/165 @ 6.39 x 2, 180/185 Call Credit Spread @ 1.35 x 4. AAPL had a nice MACD cross today on the daily.
3. Closed the 15 DIA Fuzzies that I opened yesterday for a $1700 profit.
4. Rolled hedges on the AAPL and FB fuzzy bears that are taking heat.

My CLOSED fuzzy total for the quarter now is $26,454. I sure would like to reclaim that 50-handle…but I’m still being cautious. This string of powerful up moves….not a single one of them is a 1-standard deviation move. How can that be, you ask? The down move on Feb 5 was 5.4 standard deviations….as long as that bar stays in the SD average for compilations, it will affect all other bars printing. So, even though I’m looking for 3 1-SD up bars to confirm the rally, I have to keep in mind that the bars are being tamped down by that massive Feb 5 bar. Any indicators that you use that are tied to standard deviations will be seeing the same skew.

smasty 5:42 pm on Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Tags: AtomicFuzzy ( 12 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land Hi…

Feb 14 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Everyone! I’m starting to take some new Fuzzy nibbles. I’m still not seeing the indicator that I want for a full blown rally, so I’m being very cautious with size. I’m still making the bulk of my daily money with NQ scalping right now.
Open positions:
AAPL Fuzzy bear (apr 165/165/170) only a teensy 2-lot. Closed hedge today
DIA regular fuzzy: Mar 274/274/245 @ 3.87 w/ 251 hedge, 15 contracts in 2 accounts
FB Fuzzy bear (apr 175/175/180 @ 6.16, removed hedge today, 5 contracts
IWM Regular Fuzzy (Mar 151/151/149) hedged w/ 151 (ITM)
MU Regular Fuzzy (Apr 42/42/40) w/ 43.5 hedge (close to ITM)
SPY #AtomicFuzzy (Mar 269/269/267 x10, 271/275 x20) did you catch this?
TBT Regular Fuzzy (Apr 39/39/37) unhedged

Who caught the Atomic Fuzzy? Don Kaufman at Theo Trade has an “Atomic Hedge” trade, where OTM puts are bought at a certain expiration, and using the same expiration a 2x OTM call spread is sold to cover the cost of the puts, all against a long underlying position. The trade hedges pretty well, while still offering long delta for continued move up. Of course after reading about it, my first thought was “Fuzzify it!” So by doing the same thing with a Fuzzy, the max loss is cut in half or more. I put my first one on today and I liked the movement it saw in the rally. What it does is build in the hedge up front, so you can set it and forget managing hedges.

Here’s my specfic trade on SPY:
1. Synthetic: Mar 269/269 for .51 cr x 10
2. Protective puts: Mar 267 for 4.33 x10
3. Atomic element: Mar 271/275 call credit spread 1.63 cr x 20

Regular Fuzzy max loss: $5451
Atomic Fuzzy max loss: $2560

It does suck away about 100 delta so it moves more slowly than a regular unhedged fuzzy. Also it needs to be managed early to avoid the upside “sea of death”. But it moved well in today’s rally and is designed for holding just a week or two with this DTE, or can be designed with a much longer DTE.
I’m a tester/tweaker on everything, this is the first test….so I’m happy to keep reporting on these as a few more test cases are created. Hey…it sure is nice to see the cost of fuzzies coming DOWN!! 🙂
Sue

smasty 4:02 pm on Thursday, February 8, 2018

Trader’s Almanac “December Low” warning

Anyone with this fun little book, go to page 38. Since 1952 there are only two instances where a close below the Dow December low in Q1 did not result in additional down moves, on average another 10%. The December low was 23,921.90–so today we closed below that number.

smasty 1:22 pm on Thursday, February 8, 2018
Tags: Augen ( 3 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Feb 8 Howdy!

Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and let you know I’m trading VERY small. Just 1-2 lots of #Fuzzy . Mostly shorts. Fuzzies are very expensive now. It helps to hedge them since hedges are also expensive (credit). But hedging slows them down considerably in movement. I like to get out with 50-100% gains. Where I’m doing best now is scalping /NQ.

I’ve mentioned my ” #Augen Spike Code” in the past (From Jeff Augen’s book The Volatility Edge in Options Trading). It translates price action into standard deviations. It helped me find a crash indicator different from what everyone else was viewing. But I also found an important bottom indicator is when there are 3-out of-5 daily bars with 1-standard deviation up moves. .99 doesn’t count, must be over 1.0. Going back in time w/ the indicator I found anything less than 3-in-5 led to shallow false or short term rallies. So on rally days I’m watching and counting those bars.
Sue

Here’s the code if you want it: http://tos.mx/FnguWH

smasty 8:35 am on Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Feb 6 #fuzzy I used…

Feb 6 #fuzzy
I used the MU rally to liquidate. Liquidated MSFT too. FXE closed for 50% target. Lots of Fuzzy Bear trades today on SPY and QQQ have helped me reclaim over 50% of my YTD profits.
SPY bear: Feb 16 expiration, sell ATM call, Buy ATM put, Buy ATM+2 call. Do not hedge for fast movement with the market. Set a GTC-close so a cover order is in the system. (Tip: the fastest way to create a fuzzy close order is to open your “filled orders” right click on your order and “create opposite order”).
Sue

smasty 5:28 am on Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

#Fuzzy assignment warning Good morning…

#Fuzzy assignment warning
Good morning everyone! Just want to throw out the possibility that if you have on Fuzzies with deep in-the-money short legs, there might be assignment activity due to margin calls. The higher the extrinsic value in those legs, the less likely–but anything can happen when forced liquidations kick in. Anyway this morning would be a good time to review fuzzy legs, and stay on top of any broker notifications.
Sue

smasty 1:42 pm on Monday, February 5, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land I’m…

Feb 5 #Fuzzy Land
I’m a bit shell shocked after these last 2 days. As I watched my January profits approaching a 50% retracement, it was time to liquidate almost everything to protect that level. By end of the day today my Jan profits have retraced 61.8%. An appropriate number for fib aficionados! Fuzzy bear trades brought salve in the way of $7243.00 today. Only a couple Fuzzies remain: MU (x3), MSFT. Added a new long fuzzy on IWM and TLT, and a fuzzy bear on FXE.

I’ve got a family member, C-level exec in a public company, called me 2 weeks ago, wanted me to design a trade for him to protect his employee stock options that he couldn’t sell until April 1. He was not ethically allowed to short his own company. “No Problem” I said, got the perfect trade for you! A 5-lot SPX unhedged fuzzy bear would give him $150K profit in a 10% correction, the trade was really cheap; about $24.00 (Mar29 2800/2800/2805). Tonight the trade costs $211.00. That’s $93,500 profit. Did he do the trade? No (but I didn’t either). Guess who called during the game last night in a bit of a panic. Yep.

Closed Fuzzies for the quarter profits were slashed to $26,584. But I know a LOT of people have lost everything they made in Jan, so I’m grateful that I’m still green for the year. Other than small fuzzy bears for quick flips, I’m really trying to wait for the Face-Ripping rally to set substantial bear trades.

smasty 1:21 pm on Friday, February 2, 2018
Tags: FallingKnife ( 964 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

#Fuzzy #fallingknife After closing my…

#Fuzzy #fallingknife
After closing my SPY Fuzzy Bears I dipped my toe into the #FallingKnife trades on long SPY Fuzzies, 3-lots in 3 accounts, 277(c)/277(-p)/275(+p) @ 4.53 (double the price they were a couple days ago!) hedged with 281’s around .60.

Get your computer in front of the TV Sunday for futures open.

Whiskey time.
Sue

smasty 9:54 am on Friday, February 2, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Dancing with ( #Fuzzy )…

Dancing with ( #Fuzzy ) Bears
Hello everyone! Not gonna lie, my net long deltas are feeling pain today, but I have so much silver lining here! Fuzzy bears are dancing and singing, holding hands with hedges and protective puts. None of you guys (men) could get away with saying a sentence like that 🙂
1. Gorillas are getting stopped out, gone are: BAH, TSEM, IDTI
2. Lots of hedges are rolled. The best way to balance long fuzzies is to rework the hedges and bring in fresh short delta. Rolled SPY, MSFT, CMCSA, IWM, KR, CAT, MU, collecting about $2800.00 on the covers.
3. Added a new Fuzzy bear on QQQ Mar 167/167/19 @ 2.73 hedged w/ 164 @.65

Revised Short Fuzzy Profit (on CLOSED Fuzz’s) after taking some losses today: $47,997
Net hedge collection on open positions: $25,180

smasty 8:34 am on Thursday, February 1, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

LMT #fuzzy My LMT fuzzies…

LMT #fuzzy
My LMT fuzzies got blasted today due to hedge annihilation. Closed 20 contracts for a mere $700 profit, lots of the previously-reported hedge profit got taken out today. Will reset.

New fuzzy: MSFT Apr 95/95/92 for 2.73, Hedged w/ feb 9 99 for .25. I made $3460 on MSFT naked puts this morning. MSFT is my “animal spirit.” My dog is nicknamed Satya Nadella, so she gets a special treat every quarter when MSFT reports.

Sue

smasty 4:03 pm on Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 31 #Fuzzy Land Hello…

Jan 31 #Fuzzy Land
Hello Everyone! Goodbye January, you were incredible! Good day here, the mix of long and short Fuzzies netted out for green today, hedges worked great, F-bears worked great.

1. ANSS took Fuzzy profit just shy of my target on a price spike, will look to get back in
2. Closed a tiny DIA long fuzzy on the highs today
3. Added 25 SPY Fuzzy Bear contracts across several accounts. Mar283/283/285 @ 2.58 with a 278 hedge @.84
4. Rolled DIS hedge collecting $550 profit
5. Rolled CAT hedge collecting $1270 profit
6. Opened new EA fuzzy on UOA, Mar 130/130/125 for 1.21, no hedge yet (the UOA was a buy of Mar 135 calls, + June 135 and 140 large call buys)
7. Rolled JNJ hedge collecting $400 profit.
8. Yesterday I cut the KBH fuzzy for $2400 loss, saved a little by selling one round of calls on it, sold Feb 30-strike puts to recoup a little (or not).
9. Rolled IWM hedge collecting $330.

Fuzzies that need management this week: CELG, 1-MU, 1-QQQ, 1-SPY,

Total Closed Fuzzy Profit: $49,383; Hedge collection on open positions: $24,260

Oh, one thing I forgot to add: Trader’s Almanac has been pretty good so far this year. It shows tomorrow (Thur) is the biggest day for bulls for the whole month of February. 🙂

smasty 2:43 pm on Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), SyntheticStock ( 356 )

Jan 30 #Fuzzy Land Hi…

Jan 30 #Fuzzy Land
Hi Guys! Quite a day today. Lots and lots of activity for me, hedges and protection working overtime.
1. I’ve got a decent number of Gorilla Fuzzies now (Fuzzies based on the Gorilla Trades Portfolio). These are all very small lot, mostly unhedged, with 50% GTC targets: ANSS, APH, BAH, BLDR, DAL, FLIR, IDTI, MYGN, PX, STZ, TSEM, VFC. Let me know if you want specifics.
2. Earnings run-up fuzzies: Open right now are ANSS, FLIR, VFC, MKSI (must be closed tomorrow), NTGR,
3. Closed one SPY Fuzzy bear today when hedge was blown, netted $1070.00
4. Opened new QQQ Fuzzy bear: Mar 169/169/171 @3.07 with Feb 9 164 hedge @.62
5. Closed VIX fuzzy for $530 profit on a 5-lot. I thought this VIX fuzzy was a really nice strategy. Any time we get a VIX pullback these will be layered in on the portfolio, unhedged.
6. LMT was a new fuzzy I opened yesterday, Mar 350/350/345 @ 7.83, it was hedged with 360 calls, closed those today for $2100 profit and reset at 355 for next week, based on trend exhaustion. Those may prove to be too tight.
7. Opened a new MCD fuzzy today (on the drop) for income, it did really well last month when I had it on. Apr 170/170/165 @ 4.88 hedged w/ feb9 175 @ 1.06.

The day was all about Fuzzy Bears, VIX fuzzy, Hedges and Protection, yay for those!

#syntheticstock

smasty 5:17 am on Monday, January 29, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 26 #Fuzzy I didn’t…

Jan 26 #Fuzzy
I didn’t do a post last Friday….here’s a couple things that happened:
1. IP had a price spike and took out my GTC order for 40% profit on a Gorilla Fuzzy, it has earnings this week.
2. I got uncomfortable with the panic buying into the close so I closed my small DIA Fuzzies for $600 profit
3. A couple new Gorilla Fuzzies: TSEM Feb 34/34/32 for .70 APH Mar 90/90/85 for 2.80
4. New CAT hedged Fuzzy: Apr 165/165/160 for 7.00 Hedged w/ Feb 2 170 for 1.48
5. New CELG hedged Fuzzy for range-bound income: Apr 105/105/100 for 4.87, Feb 2 109 -.74
6. I removed the hedge on my SPY Fuzzy Bear in preparation for a drop (that seems to never come).
I still have Fuzzy Bears on QQQ and SPY, I have short delta trades on HD, PVH, ADBE, MNST (whoops my MNST short delta looks like toast)–just looking for stalling action on those.

Closed Fuzzy Profit for the quarter (including a few weeks in Dec): $49,333. Any longs I take now are smaller and tighter, get closed for profits quickly.

smasty 2:06 pm on Thursday, January 25, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades ( 240 )

Jan 25 #Fuzzy Land and…

Jan 25 #Fuzzy Land and #PieTrades

Another very nice day in Fuzzy Land here. I feel very balanced in the portfolio right now. Hedges are working on the trouble makers. JNJ–nice move today. EA–moved the wrong way but I’ve learned to stay patient on the earnings trades that have a 100% backtest win rate, and I keep them small. AAPL got cut today, when I ran the backtest on it today it only wins 25% of the time for earnings run up, so I was a goof to even have that trade on. BUT I had a pre-earnings trade on for BA today that ran up big in just a few hours. I’ve got a nice mix of shorts and longs. With volatility up, it’s easy to hedge the Fuzzy Bears with a strike that allows beautiful profit even if runover.

1. Closed the FLIR Earnings Run Up Fuzzy for 47% profit, $415
2. Opened hedged SPY Fuzzy Bear Feb 284/284/285 @ 2.54 Jan31 280 hedge @.53
3. Closed AAPL pre-earnings fuzzy for net $1115 loss….BUT
4. Opened BA pre-earnings fuzzy and closed it 3 hours later for $2100 profit
5. Rolled MU Hedges to next week, and opened a new MU Fuzzy (Mar 43/43/41 for 2.22). I’ve collected a net $4200 in MU hedges…MU can be a little dramatic (like a toddler in a store), but that’s what makes for nice premium to sell for hedges. So MU is now in 3 of my 4 accounts.
6. VIX I compared long calls to a long fuzzy for VIX…remember the grocery store question? ATM Fuzzy costs the same as $2 OTM long calls, with higher deltas on the Fuzzy for better performance. So I opened Mar 21 12/12/11 Fuzzy, unhedged, for 1.57 as an overall hedge. I’d like to layer more of these in as vol/price drops.
7. AMTD, there’s a sell program going on in this ticker, I’ve got lots of cycles in front of this for hedges, so rolled today from 58 to 56 calls. There was a LOT of call buying on this today, probably due to ETFC reporting. I didn’t see the call buying affect price though, like it usually does. It’s sitting on a 50% retracement here. I’m grateful for protective puts + hedges for a nice counterbalance.
8. Added 2 small-lot DIA unhedged fuzzies at the bottom today. Feb 263/263/261 @ 2.45
9. Added MGM pre-earnings run up Fuzzy (early I know) Feb23 36.5/36.5/35 for 1.13
10. Although not technically a fuzzy since it was a synthetic only, I made 422% on a BX-synthetic, buying yesterday at .09 and selling today at .47. 5x my entry price. That was an earnings run up play.

11. PieTrades: so far my only ticker is LMT for this campaign. Sold 327.5 puts on Monday, was able to cover 1/2 of them today for .05. I assume other half tomorrow morning. That will equal $680, thanks @hcgdavis LMT reports Monday morning, so Monday or Tue next week will be good for the next round.

smasty 3:36 pm on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 24 More #Fuzzy 1….

Jan 24 More #Fuzzy
1. New QQQ Fuzzy Bear Feb -168.5calls/+168.5puts/+169.5 calls for 2.47, hedged w/ Feb2 166 puts @.82
2. JNJ, been waiting to see buyers come in on this, there was some nibbling today Apr 140/140/135 @3.85 (has $2.00 intrinsic). Hedged w/ Feb2 145 calls @ .43
3. EA added a 2nd Earnings Run Up fuzzy on the drop today, Feb 2 114/114/112 @3.17, I have 5 of the 117-line fuzzies and 2 of the 114-line. These are unhedged, to be closed before report, profit target is always 40% for me using a GTC order.
4. Hedged AAPL earnings fuzzy on the poor performance this week. Jan 26 175 for 1.26.
Almost all of the Earnings Run Up fuzzies are based on historical 100% win rates (backtested), but AAPL doesn’t have that kind of historical win rate running up to earnings. I went a bit rogue on this one. Keeping the full $1260 on this hedge will go a long ways to fixing this trade. But this is a bit dicey, one news release and the hedge is blown.

Sue

smasty 1:22 pm on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: UOA ( 12 )

SPX #UOA The Trader held…

SPX #UOA
The Trader held this one until right after the regular close. Big trade for mid-week next week, selling 2790/2775 Bull Put Spread

smasty 1:13 pm on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: UOA ( 12 )

CMCSA #UOA In the last…

CMCSA #UOA
In the last 1/2 hour today, a lot of block trades and call buying.

smasty 8:19 am on Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 24 #Fuzzy early report…

Jan 24 #Fuzzy early report
Every night I go to bed with one thought in my mind: “please may I have one more day to go flat?” So I did NOT squander today, I went pretty flat (not totally). The Fuzzy Biotech Trifecta….gone (EXAS/GWPH/EXEL). All index fuzzies are gone. Here’s a list of closures: BABA, IBM, JPM, SPY, AXP, SWKS, IWM, EXAS.
My total for the quarter now on CLOSED fuzzies is $46,463.

I do have one NEW Fuzzy: CMCSA Apr 42.5/42.5/40 @ 1.16 with a Feb 9 43.5 hedge @.50

Open Fuzzies: MU, KBH, DIS, IP, AAPL, BAH, MYGN, AMTD, VZ, FLIR, EA, CMCSA

smasty 6:40 pm on Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 23 #Fuzzy Land 45…

Jan 23 #Fuzzy Land
45 order fills for me today, whew! A lot of it was NFLX defense on a diagonal, managing deltas back and forth to orchestrate a nice landing (I hope!). It’s ok if you think I’m nuts. Last week I was contracting my holdings, reeling in profits for protection. But I got lured back in this week. So now I’d like to once again pare down a little as the week progresses. 80% of my trades now are some kind of Fuzzy. Unhedged Fuzzies for runners, straight up Hedged Fuzzies for consolidations (hedges are still getting steamrolled), Fuzzies for momo, Fuzzies for pullbacks, Fuzzies for pre-earnings run ups, Gorilla Fuzzies (unhedged) waiting for their moves.

1. New Hedged Fuzzy on AMTD Mar2 57.5/57.5/55.5 @1.14 with Feb 2 58 hedge for -.62 I used the Mar2 expiration to get 2.5-wide strikes.
2. BABA Earnings run-up Fuzzy was closed for 40% profit, then re-entered again when I saw a lot of bullish option activity. New fuzzy, which must be closed BEFORE the report is Feb2 192.5/192.5/190 @4.70, 40% target for profit. These pre-earnings fuzzies are unhedged. @MamaCash is due total credit for earnings run up trades, and figuring out that Fuzzies worked better than long calls is all due her.
3. MSFT Earnings run up fuzzy closed for 40%, this is the one I opened yesterday based on UOA, but since it hit 40% so quickly I took the profit.
4. Here’s a loser Fuzzy: HTHT was really running yesterday so I put on a momo fuzzy, Feb 160/160/155, only a 3-lot, but it quickly lost 70% today before I cut it loose. About a $1600 loss.
5. IBM new fuzzy Mar2 162.5/162.5/160 @3.21 with Feb2 167.5 hedge @.74, thanks to @Kathy1111 for finding the turn around today on IBM.
6. VZ new fuzzy Mar 52.5/52.5/50 for 1.54 with Feb2 54 hedge @.47, UOA on this, buyers came looking for the 52.5 calls this morning.
7. Closed all the 4-lot SPY unhedged fuzzies for a net $1225 profit. Was ready to just sit for a bit until I saw some big SPY buyers come into the market with a Feb 286+ target (look at that volume today, 265,000, they were actually buying 286/291 bull call spreads). So new Unhedged (for now) SPY Fuzzies Feb 282/282/279 @2.40 x 5 lots
8. IWM Fuzzies….hedges got run over today, so I closed just half of the hedge, which eliminates the ceiling for it to run, but leaves just a little hedge protection still on.
9. EA Earnings run up Fuzzy Feb2 117/117/115 @2.75, 40% target
10. FLIR–This is both Gorilla and Earnings Run up. Feb 50/50/48 @1.77. 40% target.

Hedges to manage for this week: AXP, DIS, EXAS (ITM after a nice move today), IWM, JPM, MU. There’s some really nice profits here that haven’t been obliterated for once, but there’s lots of time left in the week.

smasty 1:54 pm on Monday, January 22, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), pietrades ( 240 ), UOA ( 12 )

Jan 22 #PieTrades LMT is…

Jan 22 #PieTrades
LMT is one of my all time favorite tickers. I feel like I’ve been a grimy street urchin staring in the the window of a sweet shop as I missed the last LMT swing, and also w/ earnings next week, been covering my eyes on it. But, today gave a great opp for my first Pie Trades! Sold this week 327 puts for .90 x 8.

Boatloads of #Fuzzy trades
1. Closed all the “twisted fuzzy” trades for small gains/losses (less than $100 per)
2 Opened new unhedged fuzzies on SPY, Feb 282/282/279 for 1.93 (only 4-lots)
3. I’ve mentioned the “Gorilla Trades” service before. Pretty great service. Their picks are very often best played with shares vs. options (monthlies, thin). But I’m tired of getting left behind on the myriad of explosive moves in their portfolio. So I’m using unhedged fuzzies, small lot, to create a shotgun approach in building a Gorilla portfolio. On Friday I put on a 3-lot unhedged fuzzy on Gorilla pick INGN, it was closed today for 357% gain. Additional openings today: BAH, MYGN, IP.
4. Unhedged fuzzy on MSFT from Friday was closed for 40% gain, then placed again immediately after seeing #UOA on it. I now have Apr 90/90/85 for 2.45 x 10.

smasty 12:17 pm on Saturday, January 20, 2018
Tags: FuzzyTwist

Jan 20

I think the #FuzzyTwist is a no-bueno trade. Only works well with strong movement in either direction, negative theta very strong on it. The enemy of the trade is consolidation. We’ve got a binary open on Monday with the government shutdown, so we’ll see how it does, but I’m pretty ready to kick it to the curb.

smasty 4:40 pm on Thursday, January 18, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), TwistedFuzzy

Jan 18

Not a lot to report here. The SPY double #Fuzzy performed well today (but really, and @hcgdavis already knows this, it’s just kind of a glorified double calendar–I doubt it will stay in the toolbox. It was nice to have a day where hedges actually got to work a little.

I’m working on a new Fuzzy derivative. Anyone a Don Kaufman fan? Don is at a site called Theo Trade. He sent out a video (free) last night for a trade called a “Risk Twist” trade. Perfect for continuing with trend participation without fear of reversal. His trade is a 7DTE 85-delta long call coupled with a 90-day broken wing reverse 1×3 put butterfly. I know, that’s a mouthful. It’s kind of a franken-fly. I modeled it, it was ok. Net long delta gives you trend participation, coupled with some protection. But I knew I (we) could do better! I must say I’ve got a couple great Fuzzy partners that help with tweaking and testing of fuzzies, @MamaCash and @Kathy111.

Enter…the “Fuzzy Twist” 7DTE 85-delta long call, 90 day Fuzzy bear (unhedged). This is a pretty nice trade for trend continuation (at extensions) with downside protection that kicks in almost immediately.

I put a bunch of them on today to gauge performance. Here’s one you can throw into an analyze tab to check out, pay attention to the t+1 line (purple line):
QQQ:
1. Jan 26 161 call @ 4.71
2. Apr -165 call @ -5.29
3 Apr 165 put @ 4.84
4. Apr 167 protective call @ 4.21

I’ve got these on the Q’s, SPY, DIA. You can be sure I’ll report back on their value, but I’m kind of psyched that it’s a tool to keep me in the trend at extensions.

Sue

#twistedfuzzy

smasty 6:55 pm on Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 17 #Fuzzy Well I…

Jan 17 #Fuzzy
Well I flattened out a LOT today. I’m pretty bad at picking tops, but I’m ready to take a little break and see if the market is too. On each of my closed index fuzzies I retained a single long put, just to tuck away for safe keeping. I took losses on closing out the index fuzzies this morning before the rally really took off, and I took a loss and closed out EXEL. This is what I built up the fuzzy profit cushion to handle though. So the new net profit on CLOSED fuzzies is $42,595 (since 2nd week of December). A huge amount of risk has been cleared off my table for now.

Open Fuzzies: MU 1, MU 2, EXAS 1, EXAS 2, JPM, GWPH, and a new one on DIS.

I ventured into the world of Double Fuzzies today with SPY. So I have a SPY long fuzzy, hedged, and a SPY Fuzzy Bear, Hedged, in the same account. This is 8-fuzzy legs, maybe a tarantula? The bear is a 278/278/280 for 1.86 with a Jan 26 276 hedge @ .98.

smasty 5:46 pm on Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 16 #Fuzzy Land This…

Jan 16 #Fuzzy Land
This was a day about luck for me. I woke up with the thought that I really want to cut down tickers so I can have a stronger focus on fewer positions. The market opened strong, and I had a chance to close some fuzzies for nice profits. I closed CELG (my now oldest Fuzzy), MNST, ADSK, MCD, NVDA, BABA (BABA captured a quick $2150 profit before tanking, really lucky on that one), COST. My total net profit now on CLOSED fuzzies is $45,741 in about 5 weeks. That was the good news of the day.
I also opened the day pulling off hedges on all my SPY and QQQ Fuzzies. Of course, they were net debit to remove, and then the market had it’s little sell off. As the market was selling off I set up new non-hedged fuzzies in IWM and DIA and parked them with “blue sky” prices. I kind of lost track of them and the blue sky prices hit. So on IWM I have Feb 158/158/155 for 1.34 and in DIA Feb 259/259/256 for 2.00. So lots of index fuzzies right now with no hedges on. I also have a new non-hedged GLD fuzzy Feb 127/127/124 @ .72.

Fuzzy seniority now goes to MU as my oldest position.

CELG is a pretty good story about the power of fuzzies. That one was set with a $110 synthetic. Since setting it, the stock has fallen to a low of 101. I’ve kept it hedged constantly, sometimes with debit rolls, sometimes beautiful weekly profits. So despite CELG falling from $110 to the low 100’s I was able to net out $764 (on a 10-lot). And honestly, I didn’t do nearly as well as I could have. I’d give myself a C+ in managing it.

I have my very first Trader’s Almanac. Fun little book! It shows tomorrow (Wed) is the strongest day of the month, historically. If that ends up being the case, I’d like to peel back on some of the index fuzzies that I have.

smasty 12:55 pm on Saturday, January 13, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 12 #fuzzy Fair question…

Jan 12 #fuzzy
Fair question on the last post about risk. I’m always VERY concerned about risk. Being concerned about risk cost me a LOT of money this week. I’m planning to open a shelter for battered hedge sellers. I have a feeling a few folks here will be standing in line with me. I’ve had a wonderful start to the year. Except that I probably lost 20K in hedge rolls this week. But here’s what I’m doing to address risk: I’m closing fuzzies every few $ move up in underlying, taking the profits and resetting them. They are being reset smaller and tighter. Much as I would like to stay unhedged, I just can’t. So my Fuzzies are smaller in size, tighter in spread, and still hedged. So I’m not making as much as my brave hedgeless friends, but I know I can handle a crash. Fuzzy design started for me with $10-wide protection on the puts. Now they are all $3-$5.00. Also by closing and rolling them frequently, the long puts are retaining most of the their value.

The net on my CLOSED fuzzies is now $38,615. So that’s a nice crash cushion.
Current amount of hedges on open positions net collected and sold: 18,770.00

Just some highlights:
1. Closed TGT due to runaway hedges for net $870, but 300% on the core
2. Closed and reset all the Q’s with tighter puts for a net of $4235
3. Closed AAPL for a net of $3300.00 due to older design with $10.00 spread risk
4. New MU Fuzzy on the recent dip, nice weekly premium Mar2 43/43/41 @1.77 w/ 44.5 call hedge
5. New JPM Jun 110/110/105 @ 5.18 with 112 hedge (might be too tight)
6. COST flipped the cards and put on a bull fuzzy here with shored up technicals Mar 190/190/185 @ 5.20 with a 195 hedge due to squeeze and “RAF buy” indicator
7. SPY is all reset with 277/277/274 with hedges

Hey….Remember “SPX Guy?”(ok, maybe not a guy) On January 2? The guy that did the 5000 Risk reversal in SPX? I’ve been tracking that trade just for fun. How would you like $30,975,000 in 9 days.

I’m very happy to have this 3-day weekend! Hoping rest and recharge for all of you, too!

smasty 6:28 am on Friday, January 12, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

One #Fuzzy Concern One little…

One #Fuzzy Concern
One little thing that concerns me about hedged fuzzies that I wanted to throw out is the real possibility that we’ll start seeing a resurgence of special dividends with the new tax plan. Maybe not this quarter, but this year could be a big year like 2015-16 was for these things. Talk about a hedge killer! Companies on their conference calls are saying they have too much money on their balance sheets—so that means employee bonuses, share buybacks, debit recovery, raised dividends, acquisitions, and special dividends. The last one will catch us by surprise on hedges, ouch!

smasty 2:18 pm on Thursday, January 11, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 11 #Fuzzy Land I…

Jan 11 #Fuzzy Land

I don’t quite know how to start this. My life in Fuzzyland has become more of a teenage horror flick. Don’t get me wrong. It’s awesome! It’s morphed into something I never expected. I never expected this trade to have the incredible versatility that it does (especially when unhedged for short term swing trading with limited risk). You’ll have to tell me how much Fuzzy detail you want, because there are SO many fuzzy trades going on now, that it will overwhelm posts. Do you want it all? Maybe just highlights? Maybe just indexes? or UOA? I closed down a lot of fuzzies today for a net profit on closures of $30,210.00 A lot of these were fuzzies with the old $10.00 spread risk design. My newer designs have tighter spreads for less risk. So I’m happy to take the profits and look for opportunities to reset.

1. SPY finally flat on all Spy for $5393.00 YTD (8 trading days) on fuzzies.
2. CVX closed for net $1875.00. The core trade alone was up 330%
3. FAS 1, 2 closed for net $1540.
4. IWM 1,2 opened just yesterday closed for $1280 due to hedges seriously blown out. The cores were up 180% in 1 day.
5. CMCSA, which I unhedged yesterday on UOA I closed today for $2140 profit. The core was up 202%
6. The Fuzzy Biotech Experiment (EXAS, EXEL, GWPH) with just 1 week left to monthly expiration I decided to throw some hedges on. What the heck, what can happen in a week. I’ll tell you what, right after the close EXAS announces a debt offering the stock drops $4.00–so that’s a well-timed hedge.
7. New Fuzzy on DAL Mar 55/55/52.5 for 2.64 already had to manage a hedge once on it
8. New Fuzzy on KR on UOA Mar 2 28/28/26 for .50 unhedged
9. New Fuzzy on KBH Apr 39/39/36 unhedged 1.32
10. CELG hedge rolled to next week 106, will close next week for earnings, this is my oldest fuzzy.
11. JPM I’ve been eagerly awaiting tomorrow to load JPM back into the Fuzzy lineup.

smasty 1:21 pm on Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 10 #Fuzzy part 2…

Jan 10 #Fuzzy part 2
It’s not Friday yet? Another crazy day. Already reported a few trades this morning, that seems like days ago. It’s warm enough in Denver to light an afternoon fire on the patio, problem is we’ve had almost zero snow–so I don’t want an errant spark to burn down the adjacent field.

1. SPY update: $4753 YTD, Still have 40 Fuzzies all hedged
2. All the (45, not 40) Q Fuzzies got hedged with Jan 19 162.5 calls @ .85-.86 cr
3. TGT new Fuzzy Feb 70/70/67.5 @2.26 Jan 19 71.5 call @.98
4. IWM 20 new Fuzzy 154/154/151 @2.88 Jan 19 155.5 call -.66 (OI is big on the 155 line for next week)
5. IWM 20 new Fuzzy 155/155/152 @ 2.35 Jan 19 155.5 call -.73
6. CMCSA BIG BIG BIG UOA on this 15 min before the close (that’s when those sneaky hedgies do it) so I very quickly unhedged this to fly free BTC jan 12 40.5c .58

The biotech Fuzzy experiment behaving well today, driving fresh new highs across the board.

smasty 8:10 am on Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), FuzzyBear ( 22 )

Jan 10 #fuzzy COST #FuzzyBear…

Jan 10 #fuzzy
COST #FuzzyBear was closed at the low this morning for $1370 net profit
QQQ 45 new QQQ Fuzzies (multiple accounts) Feb 162/162/159 @ between 1.60-1.70 currently unhedged

smasty 2:03 pm on Tuesday, January 9, 2018
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 9 #Fuzzy Trades This…

Jan 9 #Fuzzy Trades
This was a REALLY busy day. Let me start by saying these first 6 trading days of the year have been just amazing. Pinch-myself-amazing. So I’ve starting peeling some things off. Fuzzies that have upcoming earnings, or have had a lot of debit rolls and were yet again ITM just got yanked today.

1. Let me start with SPY….I no longer can account for where I am in the core debit reduction on my collective SPY trades. Hedges and unhedges are flying around my office like Chinese throwing stars. The best measurement I think is just nightly P/L updates on SPY until I’m flat.
SPY YTD: $4883.00
I still have 40 SPY Fuzzies that are hedged, and I may look to peel those off tomorrow and go flat, preparing for a reset.
2. CVX calls were down to about .20 extrinsic, time to roll. BTC Jan12 127 c 1.71, STO Jan 26 128c 1.77.
3. FAS (x20) same as above on extrinsic. BTC Jan 12 70c approx 2.40, STO Jan 26 72 c approx 1.87
4. DIA bought 15 unhedged fuzzies yesterday for trend trade, sold today for net $840
5. LMT facing another large debit roll and upcoming earnings, and protective puts increasingly farther away, closed 20 of these today for net profit of $5191.00. Anxious to reset with tighter puts in spread and distance—beautiful fuzzy!!
6. IWM same story as above, net profit is $2627.00
7. MU used the AS-BB osc to close a hedge for $1430.00 profit at osc low, then re-hedge. BTC Jan 26 47 c @ .54, STO jan 19 46 c @.47
8. RCL has had terrible technicals for weeks, used today’s strength to play against significant profit taking in other positions and remove this for loss. Net loss $1670.00.
9. EXAS Hedged 1/2 of my 20 fuzzies before their presentation this afternoon at the JPM medical conference STO Jan 19 55 calls @.75. The other half is still long term focused w/o hedging.
10. MNST so much for “Lazy River Fuzzies” BTC Jan 12 64 c for 1.34 STO jan 26 65 c for 1.32, got a buck for .02.

Fun Stuff
New Fuzzy: CRM Feb 110/110/105 for .32, sold Jan 19 110c for .74. Used Feb to avoid earnings. You read this right, the first-round hedge has already covered the cost of the core trade.

Really Fun Stuff:
FUZZY BEAR
COST Fuzzy Bear STO Feb 190call/BTO Feb 190p/BTO Feb 195c x 5 Unhedged 3.99 debit I put this on when underlying was trading close to 188 today, so there is nice profit. It’s very quickly approaching support, will need to play chicken with a hedge decision on this. Looked like squeeze would fire “bear” to me.

#fuzzies

smasty 10:18 am on Monday, January 8, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

#Fuzzy Biotechs Big move in…

#Fuzzy Biotechs
Big move in Biotechs this morning after talking about some positions over the weekend–definite pain in EXAS/EXEL/GWPH/CELG. I’ve got two fuzzies in EXAS, one was hedged and DITM, one was unhedged. Luckily my vow to really try to not overtrade these paid off today since I didn’t jump the gun on managing the DITM hedge on EXAS. So I was able to BTC the Jan 12 55 calls for 50% gain (.70 vs 1.35). EXAS pre-announced quarterly earnings, they are presenting this week at the JPM conf, so continued volatility this week is expected.

CELG: I used the AS-BB osc. to cover my hedge for $2300 profit and eventually reset the hedge. BTC Jan 12 107 c for .40 (sold for 2.70), STO Jan12 105c for .76. CELG is now my oldest fuzzy with a total collected hedge now of $4100.00 (yesterday’s report was wrong-cell ranges were missing on my spreadsheet formulas). The synthetic line is $110…so hedging has absolutely saved this position (though it still has net loss). I have collected 1.72 OVER the initial trade debit. Earnings coming up.

QQQ: I shut it down for net $1171 profit. My rolls have been sloppy, I’d like to reset with the tighter put that I’m using now on indexes. In my weekend work, I show QQQ with lagging strength over SPY.

SPY Unhedged Fuzzy: Added Feb 273/273/269 for 2.51 x 15

DIA Unhedged Fuzzy: Added Feb 252/252/248 for 2.17 x 15

smasty 10:26 am on Sunday, January 7, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

#Fuzzy Weekly Report Open Fuzzies…

#Fuzzy Weekly Report
Open Fuzzies (Oldest first)
“Revised Debits” are dropping very slowly due to rollups on hedges.
1. CELG (Mar 110/110/100) Core Debit: 2.38 Net Collected: 1.04 Revised Debit: 1.34 Hedged Jan12
2. RCL (Mar 125/125/115) Core Debit: 3.59 Net collected: 2.36 Revised Debit: 1.23 Hedged Jan12
3. FAS-1 (Apr 70/70/60) Core Debit: 2.08 Net Collected: 1.58 Revised Debit: .50 Hedged Jan12 ITM
4. FAS-2 (Apr 70/70/60) Core Debit: 2.12 Net Collected: 1.57 Revised Debit: .55 Hedged Jan12 ITM
5. LMT-1 (Mar 320/320/310) Core Debit: 6.20 Net Collected: 2.81 Revised Debit: 3.39 Hedged Jan19 ITM
6. LMT-2 (Mar 320/320/310) Core Debit: 6.20 Net Collected: 2.88 Revised Debit: 3.32 Hedged Jan19 ITM
7. QQQ (Apr 158/158/148) Core Debit: 2.73 Net Collected: .96 Revised Debit: 1.77 Hedged Jan19
8. IWM (Mar 151/151/141) Core Debit: 2.25 Net Collected: .57 Revised Debit: 1.68 Hedged Jan12
9. MCD (Mar 170/170/160) Core Debit: 3.12 Net Collected: .79 Revised Debit: 2.33 Hedged Jan19
10. CMCSA (lazy river) (Apr 40/40/35) Core Debit: 1.38 Net Collected: .94 Revised Debit: .44 Hedged Jan 12
11. AAPL (Apr 170/170/160) Core Debit: 5.27 Net Collected: 1.25 Revised Debit: 4.02 Hedged Jan19
12. CVX (Jun 125/125/115) Core Debit: 2.33 Net Collected: .94 Revised Debit: 1.39 Hedged Jan12
13. EXAS (Apr 50/50/45) Core Debit: 6.15 Net Collected: 1.35 Revised Debit: 4.80 Hedged Jan12 ITM
14. MNST (Lazy River) (Jun 60/60/55) Core Debit: 5.13 Net Collected: .50 Revised Debit: 4.63 Hedged Jan12
15. SPY x 4 (4 accts) (Jun 272/272/268) Core Debit: 6.98 Net Collected .58 Revised Debit: 6.40 Hedged Jan17
The total amount of hedges on above, included debit rolls and open hedges is $20,950.00. Almost everything I do is 10-lots.

Unhedged Fuzzies:
EXAS: Apr 50/50/45 @ 6.15 x10
EXEL: May 31/31/27 @ 2.55 x10
GWPH: May 135/135/125 @ 9.65 x 5
SPY: Feb 273/273/269 @2.31 x10

Closed Fuzzies:
LMT: $773 Net
TWTR: $440
NUE: (340)
DWDP: $1500
CSX: $1300
JPM: $3230
BABA: $1560

smasty 8:12 am on Saturday, January 6, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 ), SPYcraft ( 95 )

Unhedged #Fuzzy (this is really…

Unhedged #Fuzzy (this is really long!!)
My good friend @MamaCash calls these “Unhinged Fuzzies” and that always makes me smile. Over the past couple of weeks, the power of these revealed itself to me. So that’s why I called Mr @fuzzballl an onion last night 🙂 These fuzzies are revealing very important layers of opportunity to apply in different circumstances.

Yesterday morning I woke up remembering one of John Carter’s classes from a few years ago where he talked about “HPTM” High Probability Moments in Time. Couple that with Jeff’s upside VIX warning and Eureka! HPTM is here. My immediate thought was “put down all the toys.” No more 2-lot 3-lot 5-lots on various tickers. Time for BIG laser focus on SPY/SPX RIGHT NOW. However long this window lasts this is when fortunes are made.

Before I talk more about yesterday though, let me give a couple-paragraph primer on unhedged fuzzies, because I know some people are following this carefully. And when the check-out girl at the grocery store this weekend asks you “why not just buy calls instead of a fuzzy,” here’s your answer:

100 shares of stock = 100 Delta (P/L moves 1:1 with stock, it is stock)
1 At-the-Money call = 100 shares of stock = 50 Delta (only moves 1/2 with stock)
(1 ATM Call) + (- 1 ATM Put) = 100 Delta—this is a synthetic long stock position with 100 delta
A synthetic stock position is a very cheap way to approximate ownership of stock, but there’s not a huge advantage in it. In a 401K you still are required to hold the full buying power risk of the naked puts, in margin accounts there is some buying power reduction on the naked puts. But note that you have a large naked put position with synthetic stock.

SPY 1000 Shares: $273,000
SPY 10-lot synthetic naked put risk: $273,000 (indulge me in being less than precise)
Buying Power required: $273,000

Enter the 3rd leg of the Unhedged Fuzzy: The Protective Put
This is done in the same expiration cycle as the synthetic, in fact on the same order (hold your control key to add the leg). Currently I’m using $4.00 spread-risk on SPY. Here’s what my orders look like:
BTO 273 Call
STO 273 Put
BTO 269 Put
What just happened? All of this is on a 10-lot:
Risk: $4,000 (+ trade cost) vs $273,000
Income: UNLIMITED 700 delta ($700 for every $1.00 move in SPY (vs $500 for ATM calls))
Buying Power: FREE for portfolio margin, $4,000 for IRA vs $273,000

Let me give you a real example of how I recently used this trade that I’ve not yet reported. I really like the Gorilla Trades service. I’ve been a subscriber for probably 10 years. If I’d been a faithful follower I’d probably have $25 Million by now, but I’ve not been a faithful follower. Last weekend they came out with their top 3 picks for 2018, all 3 biotechs, all 3 are take out candidates for 2018: EXAS, EXEL, GWPH. All 3 look awesome to me! Do I want to buy 1000 shares of each and just sit on them for 6 months waiting for a buyout that may or may not come? Some of these have very high vol, meaning the market thinks they are either zoom or doom stocks. Do I want to risk 1000 shares on doom? Enter the unhedged fuzzy. Here were my Tue trades:

EXAS July 55/55/45 for 3.56 x 10 (this position is up $2,740)
EXEL May 31/31/27 for 2.55 x10 (this position is up $150.00)
GWPH May 135/135/125 for 9.65 x 5 (this position is down $1175.00 but only because of weekend b/a spread, it’s been up and down )

Point is….I have nice positions tucked away on 3 biotechs using very small risk and buying power….any one of these 3 could bring in a $40K windfall (or more), but if it doesn’t, what is my risk? I’m not sitting on thousands of shares of speculative stock. EXAS I’m most comfortable with, their product is amazing, so I took bigger risk there with a $10 wide protective put (they present at the big health conf this next week). EXEL I’m less familiar with, less risk. GWPH, less risk with less size.

Alright, back to yesterday morning. Woke up, big opportunity still in the markets. But its Friday, we’ve breached key expected move targets (not just for 1 week but 2 weeks). Still I removed hedges from 40 SPY fuzzies that I had, I added 30 Feb SPY Fuzzies for about 2.30. That gave me 70 SPY Fuzzies. 70x $272 x 100 = $1,904,000. Buying power used, next to nothing. Risk: $28,000 + trade cost. I still have a hard time believing the power of this myself. I rode this to the sign of resistance around 2 hours before the close, it was pretty quiet for most of the day. Grabbed about .50 of SPY move = $3500. Then I closed the extra 30 fuzzies and put fresh hedges on the other 40. When resistance broke and we had strength into the close I added another 10 unhedged fuzzies on for Monday morning. So I’m currently sitting on 40 hedged, 10 unhedged. My intent was to keep these trades open longer, but I tend to be a nervous nelly on Fridays. However, this is a tool I plan to use over and over; shorter duration expiries on limited trend trades, longer duration (hedged) on income trades.

This is really long, I know, thank you if you’ve made it this far. These trades, with their limited risk and effective use of buying power, are showing great versatility for trending/contraction/income/momo/long/short/hedge/speculation opportunities. Hope this was helpful for those of you still getting the #fuzzy concepts.
Sue

#spycraft

smasty 4:43 pm on Friday, January 5, 2018

Jan 5, 2018

Fractured Focus Today
I heard this is the best trading week since sometime in 2006? This is also the week 5 sheriff deputies were shot in my (almost) backyard. Fractured focus today as I left trading behind to try to honor the victim just a little. I’m happy to live in a community of many people who felt the same way.
I’ll post more tomorrow….especially about the power of unhedged Fuzzies. This morning, I found myself with $1.9M in SPY power, with only $63K at risk. Oh @fuzzballl You are like an onion of opportunity!
Sue
(

smasty 10:58 am on Thursday, January 4, 2018
Tags: Bitty ( 78 ), FallingKnife ( 964 ), Fuzzy ( 414 )

Jan 4 #Fuzzy All Fuzzies…

Jan 4 #Fuzzy
All Fuzzies are managed for the week and new ones added, including a new category I call “Lazy River Fuzzies.” I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I was scanning stocks with a weekly ATR of less than 2 in an effort to avoid a lot of the debit roll/chasing drama. My single test, CMCSA, has worked great, so added a second one today, MNST. The Lazy Rivers are cheaper to put on, have less hedge premium (lower volatility), but hopefully are more “set and forget.” I did a successful round of SPY naked put #Bitty this week….but you know…..I think fuzzies are better than bitties, so instead of setting new SPY Bitties, I have set SPY Fuzzies in all my accounts.
1. CSX Closed Down for net $1300…lots of debit rolls on this and earnings next week. It was a great #fallingknife suggestion
2. LMT-1 Debit Roll BTC Jan 5 322.5 for 2.15 STO Jan 18 325 c for 2.51
3. LMT-2 ditto
4. JPM Closed Down for net $3230.00. This was my very first Fuzzy! Earnings next week. Will reset after earnings release.
5. IWM BTC Jan 5 154 c for .96, STO Jan 12 155 c for .89
6. CMCSA (Lazy River) BTC Jan 5 41 c for .07, STO Jan 12 40.5c for .45
7. MCD BTC Jan 5 172.5 c for 1.50, STO Jan 19 175 c for 1.22
New Fuzzies:
1. EXAS (earlier this week) Apr 50/50/45 for 6.15 Jan 12 55 c -1.35 (ITM now)
2. SPY 1, 2, 3, 4 Jun 272/272/268 7.00 Jan 12 273 -.61 (going tighter on these puts)
3. MNST (Lazy River) Jun 60/60/55 5.13 Jan 12 64c -.50

I’ll do a stats recap tomorrow. A huge amount of fuzzies this week were debit rolls, so basis reduction is moving down ever so slowly, but unrealized profits with the purchase of upside allowance had added up nicely.

smasty 1:51 pm on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

1/3/2018 #Fuzzy Trades Amazing two…

1/3/2018 #Fuzzy Trades
Amazing two days here. Wish I could hit a pause button. Or use the magic “flatten” button that Tom S. always wanted to develop for TOS. Wouldn’t that be great…..1 button and go flat everything with no slippage?
1. RCL What a gift here! I kept running fibs and symmetry on this knowing we were precariously close to serious support failure, but low volume kept me waiting it out. Got a nice roll today. BTC Jan 5 125 call for .14 STO Jan 12 123 call for 1.11cr.
2. MU Rode this up unhedged for a little ways and added a hedge back on, STO Jan 12 45 call for .76 cr
3. DWDP This was unhedged last week based on UOA I saw at the 74 line. I took the opp today to close it all out for a total $1500 gain.
4. AAPL BTC Jan 5 172.5 c for 1.92 sold Jan 18 175 c for 1.84. Pullback after the roll.
5. QQQ BTC Jan 5 158 c for 1.83 STO Jan 18 159 c for 1.99 cr.

Fuzzies left to manage this week:
CMCSA
IWM
JPM (EPS next week)
LMT-1
LMT-2
MCD

p.s. I still have an alternate RCL trade that went through multiple layers of defense. It started with a 123/120 BuPS, then I butterflied it, then added an IC at support. It is sitting under a significant profit umbrella graph, but hasn’t bumped much above the zero line yet.

I was joking around with some friends that I made enough today to buy a few Yugos. They didn’t know what a Yugo was. Sadly, I owned one.
https://youtu.be/-MknuRE2Bcg

smasty 5:39 am on Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Tags: RiskReversal ( 86 ), UOA ( 12 )

SPX #UOA Here’s one to…

SPX #UOA
Here’s one to just keep tabs on for fun. Yesterday Trader bought an opening #RiskReversal Selling June 2475 puts @33.50 x 5000 contracts to buy June 2775 calls @33.75 x 5000 contracts. This morning Trader is up $1,400,000 (pre-market mid)

smasty 2:27 pm on Tuesday, January 2, 2018
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Happy New Year!

Nice day here in #Fuzzy land
1. Big roll in BABA, BTC Jan5 175 for 7.97, STO Jan 19 182.5 for 4.47, added to core debit obviously, but bought an awful lot of upside range for $3.50
2. MU removed hedge for now, BTC Jan 12 43.5 c for .95 (previously sold for .53)
3. JPM roll to avoid dividend assignment (ex div is 4th) BTC Jan 5 107 c for .92, sold Jan5 108 for .40, still deciding on whether to hold through earnings next week or take all the profits off and reset after earnings–that’s why I rolled to same week. Call premium is very nice for next week. A year ago JPM moved down almost 5 standard deviations on earnings. In today’s volatility that would be about $7.00.

Fuzzies that need managed this week:

CMCSA (ITM)
IWM
JPM
LMT-1
LMT-2
MCD (ITM)
MU (unhedged)
DWDP (unhedged)
QQQ (ITM)
RCL (whoops, this should have been rolled last week, just to gain delta/theta)

smasty 8:13 am on Thursday, December 28, 2017
Tags: Fuzzy ( 414 )

Fuzzy Week

All my #Fuzzy trades for the week are now managed, so here’s an early weekly recap of everything (the “Total Hedge Collected” includes open orders, and is net of any closures/rolls:
1. JPM: Core debit: 2.51 Net Hedge Collected: $2,540 Revised Core Basis (0.03)
2. DWDP: Core debit: 1.44 Net Hedge Collected: ($60.00) Revised Core Basis 1.50 (unhedged)
3. CELG: Core debit: 2.38 Net Hedge Collected: $1,040 Revised Core Basis 1.34
4. RCL: Core Debit: 3.59 Net Hedge Collected: $1,390 Revised Core Basis 2.20
5. FAS-1: Core Debit: 2.08 Net Hedge Collected: $1,580 Revised Core Basis: .50
6. FAS-2 Core Debit: 2.12 Net Hedge Collected: $1,570 Revised Core Basis: .55
7. LMT-1: Core Debit: 6.20 Net Hedge Collected: $2,450 Revised Core Basis: 3.75
8. LMT-2: Core Debit: 6.20 Net Hedge Collected: $2,550 Revised Core Basis: 3.65
9. MU: Core Debit: 2.80 Net Hedge Collected: $1,220 Revised Core Basis: 1.58
9. CSX: Core Debit: 2.24 Net Hedge Collected: $550 Revised Core Basis: 1.69
10. QQQ: Core Debit: 2.73 Net Hedge Collected: $800 Revised Core Basis: 1.93
11. IWM: Core Debit: 2.25 Net Hedge Collected: $640 Revised Core Basis: 1.61
12. MCD: Core Debit: 3.12 Net Hedge Collected: $1,070 Revised Core Basis: 2.05
13. CMCSA: Core Debit: 1.38 Net Hedge Collected: $560 Revised Core Basis: .82
14. AAPL: Core Debit 5.27 Net Hedge Collected: $1,320 Revised Core Basis: 3.95
15. BABA: Core Debit 9.43 Net Hedge Collected: 965 Revised Core Basis: 7.50
16. CVX: Core Debit: 2.33 Net Hedge Collected: $940 Revised Core Basis: 1.39

Let me save you the time of adding up the hedge numbers: $21,125.00
This represents net hedges including closed (netted for p/l) and open orders. I have definitely NOT seen this number filter down to the bottom line due to pullbacks in underlyings (RCL, CELG, FAS, MU). Also I’m keeping meticulous track now with hedge rounds on sales vs covers to see the average amount of premium retained. It’s roughly looking like 50%–but too soon to say with so many new entries on the list. These trades are still in their infancy as far as roll cycles. JPM and CELG have had the most rolls, many of them are still in their first or second roll cycle. I’m still very happy with how this program is going. Thanks for following along. Like I just said to my friend @MamaCash this morning….nuance hides under bushes until flushed out. So it will take a few more months for me to learn all the nuance behind these. I know @fuzzballl has the nuance nailed, but I have to tear things apart to the core.

smasty 2:16 pm on Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), LongCallDiagonals ( 99 ), LongPutDiagonals ( 56 )

12/27 #Fuzzies With just a…

12/27 #Fuzzies
With just a couple trading days left in the year, my focus today was getting fuzzy rolls completed on anything in-the-money that might be exposed to early assignment due to end-of-year activity.
1. CELG BTC Dec 29 106 c for 1.60, STO Jan 12 107 c for 2.70. Yep….big fake out on this. What was firmly ITM this morning quickly became OTM right after my roll. But that’s why NOT legging the roll benefited me. Crappy price on closing out the 106, but fantastic price on the 107. Roll out and up.
2. DWDP There was some really unique bullish UOA on this yesterday, so I took the risky move of removing my hedge so this can run unfettered. BTC Dec 29 71.5 c for .45, currently unhedged.
3. CSX BTC Dec 29 54 c for 1.26, STO Jan 12 55 c for 1.21, roll out and up.
4. New Fuzzy CVX Jun 125/125/115 for 2.33, Jan 12 127 calls for -.94
5. FAS hedge was down to about .04 so I wanted to get a straight-across roll for .80 to Jan 12, the executed roll-spread numbers were all over the place, but they netted out to my .80 credit for the roll.
6. IWM: Dec 29 153 BTC for .96, Jan 5 154 STO for .96….got $1.00 for nuttin’. Roll out and up.

Fuzzies that still need managed this week:
JPM (in the money)
LMT

#fuzzy, #longcalldiagonals, #longputdiagonals

smasty 3:12 pm on Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), FuzzyBear ( 22 ), UOA ( 12 )

12/26 Fuzzy land trades

NUE: I ended up closing this one for a net net loss of $340.00 How did I lose? It started off as a lovely trade. The round-one hedge expired with full profit. But the company then came out with lowered guidance and the underlying tanked over 3%, so I rolled the next week’s hedge down $2.00 to my synthetic line. We then saw a literal whipsaw correction which left me chasing each week with debit rolls to avoid assignment on my hedge, and ex-div is Thursday. Continuing debit rolls to get me out of assignment territory on the short calls would leave me with protective puts $15.00 ($15,000) away with no “bank” due to debit rolls. To me, chasing only makes sense when you know the underlying is going to stay bid, and to me a $340 loss on a 10-lot is pretty darn close to a scratch. I’d rather do a reset on this or another, vs. having $15K risk on a less-than-$100 stock.

AAPL: This takes the place of NUE. BTO Apr 170/170/160 for 5.27 debit, STO Jan 5 172.5 call for 1.32 cr

QQQ: BTC Dec 29 159c for .03, STO Jan 5 158 c for .47

CMCSA: I did a search on SP500 stocks with a weekly ATR of 2 or less, looking for stocks with decent premium for quick core debit coverage, but stocks that stay relatively stable with price movement. I’m just still playing around with finding the perfect candidates for #fuzzies. Take JPM for example…seems to stay in a very nice range for collecting that premium every single week. So anyway, CMCSA came up on the list, boring maybe, we’ll see how it works. BTO Apr 40/40/35 for 1.38 debit, STO Jan 5 41 call for .56.

BABA: Caught some bullish #UOA on this today, and has lovely weekly premium. Chart technicals not so great. But decided to do a 1/2 size fuzzy. Apr 170/170/160 for 9.43 debit (there’s a few bucks intrinsic in this), Jan 5 175 c for 1.93 cr.
I’ll do another full recap this Friday with every open position, net collection and debit recovery.

#fuzzy, #fuzzybear

smasty 11:13 am on Monday, December 25, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), LongCallDiagonals ( 99 ), LongPutDiagonals ( 56 ), SyntheticStock ( 356 )

Merry Christmas!

I hope everyone is enjoying opening presents and eating great food! Not running scans for fuzzies like I am 🙂 My trading is very diverse, and probably seems a bit all over the place to some folks. So, since I’m so very interested in #Fuzzies, I thought I’d scale back my reports to be fuzzy-centric for now.
Here’s is a list of all my current fuzzies, what I’ve collected, and where I stand in the trade debit reduction:
1. JPM: Initial Trade Debit: $2.51 Total Collected: $2,120 Revised Trade Basis: $.39
2. DWDP: Initial Trade Debit: $1.44 Total Collected: $390 Revised Trade Basis $1.05
3. CELG: Initial Trade Debit: 2.38 Total Collected: $2,640 Revised Trade Basis: $(.26)
4. RCL: Initial Trade Debit: 3.59 Total Collected: $1,390 Revised Trade Basis: $2.20
5. FAS-1: Initial Trade Debit: 2.08 Total Collected: $780 Revised Trade Basis: $1.30
6. FAS-2 Initial Trade Debit: 2.12 Total Collected: $770 Revised Trade Basis: $1.35
7. *LMT-1: Initial Trade Debit: 6.20 Total Collected: $1500 Revised Trade Basis: $4.70
8. LMT-2: Initial Trade Debit: 6.20 Total Collected: $1600 Revised Trade Basis: $4.60
9. MU: Initial Trade Debit: 2.80 Total Collected: $1,220 Revised Trade Basis: $1.58
10. CSX: Initial Trade Debit: 2.24 Total Collected: $600 Revised Trade Basis: $1.64
11. QQQ: Initial Trade Debit: 2.73 Total Collected: $360 Revised Trade Basis: $2.37
12 NUE Initial Trade Debit: 1.87 Total Collected: ($150.00) Revised Trade Basis: $2.02
13. IWM: Initial Trade Debit: 2.25 Total Collected: $640 Revised Trade Basis: $1.61
14. MCD: Initial Trade Debit: 3.12 Total Collected $1070 Revised Trade Basis: $2.05

***Closed Fuzzies on LMT and TWTR total 1213 in profit
A couple of these have required debit rolls: NUE, IWM, QQQ, DWDP

#longcalldiagonals, #longputdiagonals, #syntheticstock

smasty 5:51 am on Thursday, December 21, 2017

Unusual Option Activity

Here’s why I try to watch “fund flow” very carefully (but not nearly focused enough, I miss a ton on my real time feed)–Fund Flow is defined by large option orders (read by me to be speculation orders vs hedge orders). I was just noticing in my chart scans this morning that ULTA is showing technical strength and is in a squeeze. I decided to check recent option activity. This trade occurred last Friday as an opening trade (these are single orders, not aggregate):
BTO 1800 contracts Jan 230 calls @ 3.45
STO 3600 contracts Jan 240 calls @ 1.25
(bull call ratio spread)
On Friday the stock closed at 218.25
Yesterday the stock closed at 226.00
Those Jan 230 calls are now 5.4 mid. The 230’s are up $360,000 in 6 days.

smasty 12:10 pm on Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Tags: BuCS ( 52 ), BUPS ( 400 ), Defense ( 3 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), ShortPut ( 33 ), UOA ( 12 )

12/20

I have 28 orders today, so I’ll sort through highlights. Also there were orders yesterday that I didn’t recap so if you were tracking a particular position and it disappeared don’t hesitate to ask.
1. My best trade of the day was scalping TSLA based on #UOA. I caught a big Jan 345 opening order for 3820 contracts so I quick bought a #BUCS and some shares and netted $1440 before going flat.
2. RCL needed a little #defense on a #BUPS, break even not yet breached, which is the best time for defense. I have on a Jan 123/120 credit spread x 10, so I butterflied it by selling more 123 and buying 126, x 4. By doing it early I only need 4 contracts to do the following: 1. cut long deltas in half (from 142 to 72), 2. move BE from 122.27 to 121.68, 3. raise max loss from $2,227 to $1,678, 4. Increase max profit
3. Bought NTNX shares at 35.25 and 34.75, I have 800 shares now
4. FAS Fuzzy roll to next week
5. MSFT #ShortPut scalps for this week the 85’s and 85.5’s, flat now for $370
6. MU new #Fuzzy Apr 46/46/41 with Dec 29 47 short calls
7. Caught some LOW UOA…when a fund buys expensive calls at an underlying high it’s a powerful trade, so followed along buying some Jan 92 calls at 1.52.
8. CELG rolled Fuzzy calls to next week

Fuzzies that still need managed this week: DWDP, JPM,

smasty 3:07 pm on Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Tags: Fuzzies ( 40 ), Fuzzy ( 414 ), FuzzyBear ( 22 ), SPYcraft ( 95 ), VXXGame ( 769 )

Fuzzy Land and “Fade Muse”

Right now I have on 12 #Fuzzies and the total amount of hedge/income premium that is sold and pending collection is $11,480 (spread mostly between this week and next week). Here’s why I love Bull Fuzzies:
–Less risk than a covered call (due to protection)
–Way less buying power than a covered call
–Same benefits of a covered call (except dividends)
–Positive Vega/Positive Theta (a covered call doesn’t have positive Vega)
–Better design than many diagonals I see
–When opened using 90-120 DTE but closed before 45DTE I should be able to maintain a really good chunk of the protective put value that would be exposed to theta decay

I know you know all this. Here’s where it gets interesting, and where I expect to now become your “Fade Muse”

i closed the #fuzzybear today. for a decent loss. Listen I hated this trade. I timed it all wrong. I put it on at the bottom of a swing vs. the top. I sized it too big for SPX. I made it a Feb trade so big theta decay was going to start soon on the long put. I’ve realized I like fuzzy setups (long or short) that cover the trade debit in 4 weeks or less, and SPX doesn’t do that. I’ve been battling it for this whole up move. Hedges can’t keep up with it. It’s beyond effective hedge range now. I ran every scenario and I just didn’t see a way out short of a big market crash, all the while theta was burning away. I was running scenarios in my head at night for saving the trade. I’ve been watching this week for a VIX upside warning to hit today (it didn’t). I can see some liquidation breaks hitting the market, but drivers are too strong for a big hit I think. Of course anything can happen, but I don’t want big (BIG) bets on market crashes in my portfolio. Today’s dip gave me the opp I needed to wipe it clean and wait for a better setup in the future.

Paid my 4Q taxes today, so just took the hit on it today. When all the laundry was washed and dried and put away it was exactly a $14K hit (net of premium collected). Luckily all the other fuzzies have been financing that so my account balance has been running in place.

#fuzzy, #spycraft, #vxxgame