#VXXGame #LongLEAPs
Bought to open $VXXB Jan 2020 20 puts for 1.75.
A starter position for a 12-month trade. My bigger target will be the 2021 LEAPs, which are still pretty expensive, but should lower in value by late summer, provided we don’t enter a bear market. I may also look at ATM puts and sell puts against them, but this OTM position is meant to be a cheaper play that stands alone without cost reduction.
Monthly Archives: January 2019
IBM earnings analysis
#Earnings $IBM reports tonight. Below are details on earnings THREE-DAY moves over the last 12 quarters.
(I used 3-day moves since Friday is 4 days away, and the 3-day range is higher than the 1-day).
Tue 10/16/2018 AC -11.04%
Wed 07/18/2018 AC +1.27%
Tue 04/17/2018 AC -9.95%
Thu 01/18/2018 AC -3.99%
Tue 10/17/2017 AC +10.60%
Tue 07/18/2017 AC -4.49%
Tue 04/18/2017 AC -5.68%
Thu 01/19/2017 AC +2.24%
Mon 10/17/2016 AC -2.09%
Mon 07/18/2016 AC +0.36%
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -2.11%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -4.37%
Avg (+ or -) 4.85%
Bias -2.44%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 123.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 116.94 to 130.06
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.51 to 129.49
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 109.87 to 137.13
Open for requests on other symbols.
Expiration
Only one today. TQQQ January 18, 50/55 call spread which is against my leaps position in 2021.
Options Expiration for 1/18
Was able to leave a few to expire. Will look to reinitiate some positions next week.
Expiring:
$AAPL Jan 18 155/145 bull put spread
$AAPL Jan 18 155/150 bull put spread
$AMAT Jan 18 35 puts
$AMZN Jan 18 1400/1390 bull put spread
$AMZN Jan 18 1485/1480 bull put spread
$AMZN Jan 18 1535/1525 bull put spread
$BA Jan 18 295/290 bull put spread
$BOIL Jan 18 45 calls
$GWW Jan 18 280/270 bull put spread
$RIG Jan 18 16 calls (covered)
$SMH Jan 18 78/84/98/104 iron condor
$STX Jan 18 37 puts
$UVXY Jan 18 65/75 bear call spread
$UVXY Jan 18 65/70 bear call spread
$UVXY Jan 18 75/80 bear call spread
$UVXY2 (pre-1:5 split) 15/25 bear call spread
$VXX Jan 18 long 20 puts (full loss)
$WYNN Jan 18 100 puts
$MCD Jan 18 170/175/182.50/187.50 iron condor–should have expired but I got too cute and didn’t close out the short call side and it finished .07 in the money. So I’ll have to deal with a buy in from assignment on Tuesday morning.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Closing TQQQ
Options ITM so closing for a profit to avoid assignment.
Bought to close $TQQQ Jan 18 45 put @ .45. Sold for 2.15 on 9/5.
SPX 1-dte, legging in
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 22nd 2715/2735 call spreads for .45. Legging in as I see us going lower into the close. Will sell puts soon.
SSO TNA TQQQ UPRO collars
After several months of selling weekly calls, buying puts, put spreads, and put flies, I’m in the green on SSO and UPRO. TNA and TQQQ are not far behind after being deeply in the red at Christmas.
STX
STO Feb 15 2019 37.50 P @ 1.15
After earnings, would be glad to take the stock down there and then write calls and take dividends.
It’s been quite a while since I’ve posted anything as I needed to take a complete break from options as I was trading too much for me. Glad to see some new names and “faces” and ideas.
UVXY hedge
#VXXGame Bought to Open $UVXY Feb 15th 100 calls for .36. I want to have room to sell premium if we get another market pull back. If we don’t, then small loss. (these reached a peak of 13.00 in late December)
AAOI LABU MO STX TNA TQQQ UVXY
#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts #LongPuts #LEAPS – Various adjustments…
AAOI: Feels like a family member now…LOL Replacing this week’s expiration
Sold AAOI FEB 15 2019 17.5/22.5 Bear Call Spreads @ .46 (prior to earnings hopefully)
LABU:
Will be assigned stock at 56.60 basis
MO: LEAPS are now unhedged leading into earnings…(for now)
Bought to Close MO JAN 25 2019 50.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .25)
STX:
Will be assigned a little more stock at 40.20 basis
TNA: Rolling covered calls and assignment
Rolled TNA Jan 18 2019 50.0 Call to Feb 22 2019 52.5 Call @ .01 credit
Will be assigned stock at basis of 62.70, 56.95, and 56.00
TQQQ: Booking covered calls. No new sales yet. (partial fill on this yesterday at .05 Grrrr!)
Bought to Close TQQQ Jan 18 2019 45.0 Calls @.40 (sold for 1.65)
Still watching a short 45.0 strike put. If assigned basis of 42.85
UVXY: Rolling ratio’d short puts down.
Rolled UVXY FEB 1 2019 72.5 Puts to MAR 15 2019 69.0 Puts @ .62 credit
Closing AMAT
To avoid possible assignment today with the options currently in the money.
Bought to close AMAT Jan 18 36 puts @ .24. Sold for 1.30 on 9/7.
MS calendar loses
#Earnings #Double Calendar Sold to close remaining parts of $MS Jan18/Jan25 45 double calendar for .131. Bought for .33 on Wednesday, plus paid .03 to close short calls yesterday.
So one small loss and a breakeven on this strategy so far. Oddly enough, the better play for neutral option strategies this week was NFLX. It’s upside world.
Econ Calendar for week of 1/21/19
Markets closed Monday for Martin Luther King holiday.
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=21&month=1&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#spycraft Closed 5 of the…
Closed 5 of the 10 short 266 calls for the Feb 1 expiration for 3.49. The new Tradestation screens apparently put my orders in last week twice, so I ended up with 20 contracts instead of 10 on the put side. It is doing well so will leave them but I don’t have the margin for the ladder now. So anyway, sitting on my hands on this one until next week.
Once I can close the put side will re-ladder.
However, I don’t really see any reason to sell the call side at the moment so will just open the put side and leg into the call side later. If you are going to iron condor I would skew to the upside a lot. Looks like there is panic buying now.
So now have 20 contracts of the 245/242 puts, 5 of the 266 and 10 of the 269 call side. Keep on rallying. Cost 3.49.
I also adjusted the other account. It is now the 242.5/240.5 put spread 5 of these and 3 of the 268/ and 5 of the 270. Cost 2.38 to close these.
I figure if we can keep rallying will be a winner. If not can resell on the pull back.
Ladder on 1 account STO the Feb 8 255/252 put spread for 0.21. 10 contracts
No point in adding the call side until we have 2 sided action again.
TOS question
When I closed down the application, it says “saving configuration.” How do I save configuration without closing the application?
SPY 21dte IC ladders
Call rolls
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls
Rolled $SQ Jan 18th 66 calls to Feb 1st 67 calls for .25 credit.
Rolled $TQQQ Jan 18th 42.5 calls to Feb 1st 43.5 calls for .25 credit.
#earnings Z Way back on…
#earnings Z
Way back on Oct. 1, sold a Nov. 35/50 earnings strangle. Z had a record move down. I rolled the put to December and sold a 35 call to make a straddle. Z went back up and I ended up with an ITM 35 call that was rolled to today. It will expire and I will make .80, that is 80 cents after commissions. Time for a Little Debbie at the gas station.
SPX 1-dte stopped
#SPX1dte Upside stop was hit, so…
Bought to close $SPX Jan 18th 2680/2700 call spreads for .85. Puts will expire. Iron condors sold yesterday for .80, so I lost .05 and commissions. Will sell another for Tuesday expiration.
Looks like I picked the wrong year to…
#VXXGame #LongLEAPs Over the years I put a lot of research into the idea of buying long $VXX LEAP puts, since the symbol is dragged toward zero over time. I built an extensive spreadsheet showing how this strategy would have worked with every VIX leap expiration since 2006 except Jan 2009, during the financial crisis. (VXX was created in 2009, but there are models available of how it would have performed going back to 2004).
Other than Jan 2009, the 18-month to 24-month decline in $VXX is usually 60-90%; even as much as 97% down over 24 months.
So when I started buying the Jan 2019 VXX 20 puts on September 5th, 2017, the odds looked pretty good for a decent profit. I started scaling in and ended up with a total of 32 puts over multiple accounts, average price 1.603. I also sold some 50/60 call spreads against it, lowering that cost basis down to about 1.20.
But, guess what? Picked the wrong year! This is the first LEAP expiration since 2009 where this strategy did not work. And now $VXX is going away at the end of this month, replaced by $VXXB, which doesn’t have much volume yet. However, they HAVE finally added LEAPs, so I’ll be looking to start buying.
Also, because of the product termination, I closed my final short shares in $VXX today for 37.25. I was assigned 100 shares short for 27.00, and had managed to scale out of 30 of them when we dipped below 27.00 in September. Then, October happened.
#closing #assignment WYNN I was…
#closing #assignment WYNN
I was assigned this week on WYNN, after selling a Jan. 18, 113 call and selling the long put my cost basis was 115.
WYNN has pushed above 115, I closed the position to avoid assignment costs, didn’t want to roll with earnings next week, have another 100 shares assigned at a higher cost basis, WYNN is a big mover, out with a loss of just under $200.
Sensitive
#Market is way too reactionary to anything “tariffs.”
BREAKING: Stocks rise to session high as report says China to offer path to eliminate trade imbalance with UShttps://t.co/Nfcv5j71T9
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) January 18, 2019
#shortcallspreads TSLA Jan. 15 sold…
#shortcallspreads TSLA
Jan. 15 sold Feb. 1, 385/390 call spread for .81, bought today for .15
$T puts closed
#PieTrades #ShortPuts Well, was planning to let this expire or take assignment, but I forgot I had entered a GTC order weeks ago. So it just filled.
Bought to close $T Jan 18th 31 puts for .15. Sold for 1.37 on Oct 24th. Following @fuzzballl on this, but I’ll do the same thing again, sell ATM puts a couple months out, and if assigned take the stock (and dividend) and sell covered calls.
OKTA
This is breaking out to a new high so I sold the May 75 puts at 7.82 and bought a May 75/90 Bull call spread for 6.05, just following the charts.
SPX 1dte IC
#spx1dte Sold SPX Jan22 2695/2700 call credit spread @ .25 x12, 8 in one account and 4 in the other.
Sold SPX Jan22 2625/2620 pcs @ .25 x12 to complete my IC. One could say I waited too long. 🙂
Bot back 50% of 2625 short puts @ 1.35 on Tues, Jan 22 to defend this IC.
NFLX short calls
Sold $NFLX Feb 15 385 calls @ 2.60. I am long the stock, so no buying power reduction.
SPX 1dte IC closed
Out of my SPX 1dte IC from yesterday. Flat in one account. Lost $750 in the bigger account. Without defense, the losses would have been $1900 and $4050 so I’m ok with that.
NFLX earnings
#Earnings – Stock is weak so taking a small winner instead of a small loser. Now it’s free to rally back!
Bought to Close NFLX JAN 18 2019 340/350/360 Iron Fly @ 7.45 (sold for 9.10)
#spycraft Making some adjustments to…
Making some adjustments to the call sides in SPY and EXPE. Too busy to post the actual trades at the moment, just trying to get them through. Will update later.
Looks like we are back in slow grind higher mode everyday.
T
#ShortPuts #IRA – I’ll look to re-load on any weakness…
Bought to Close T Jan 18 2019 31 Puts @0.25 (sold for 1.30)
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Jan 18th 2570/2590-2680/2700 iron condors for .80.
SLB earnings
#Earnings #IronFlies -sold 50 cent wide @ .45…LOL
SPX 1-dte closing
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Jan 17th (monthly) 2670/2690 call spreads for .30. Order in to close put spreads for .05. Whole shebang sold yesterday for .85.
Selling a new one for tomorrow’s PM expiration
NFLX
#Earnings #IronFlies – Just taking a crazy shot here. Hoping all the news is out there now. 350 is also a nice even number (but so is 300 and 400 🙂 ). Selling an iron fly well inside the expected move risking 90 to make 910…
Sold NFLX JAN 18 2019 340/350/360 Iron Fly @ 9.10
This is the $100 I was going to put on the Chiefs +3 line…LOL
TQQQ
STO 52/57 call spread at .30 for February 15 expiration. I have the 50/55 call spreads that expire tomorrow so just pre selling some.
AA dbl cal closed
#Earnings #DoubleCalendar Was trying to get filled on the dip, when the dip exploded into a market rally.
Sold to close $AA Jan18/Jan25 29 double calendar for .51. Bought yesterday for .44. Meager.
Waiting for tomorrow on $MS
Tariffs shmariffs
SPX 1dte defense
Bot back 6 of 13 short calls based on China news. Will update on outcome tomorrow.
RTN STX TNA TQQQ WYNN
#LongCalls #LEAPS #CoveredCalls – A few fills this morning…
RTN: Seems to be recovering so giving it some room into earnings. May add Bull Put Spreads also…
Bought to Close RTN JAN 18 2019 165.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .60 as BeCS)
Sold RTN FEB 15 2019 170.0/180.0 Bear Call Spreads @ 1.20
STX: Covered Calls selling new ones in earnings week…
Bought to Close STX Jan 18 2019 40.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .68)
Sold STX Feb 08 2019 41.0 Calls @ .96
TNA: Looking good now. Went full position on Jan 7th on LEAPS and ratio’d weekly sales…
Rolled TNA JAN 18 2019 47.0 Calls to FEB 8 2019 48.5 Calls @ .05 debit
TQQQ: A roll against LEAPS and a partial close on some covered calls:
Rolled TQQQ JAN 18 2019 39.0 Calls to FEB 8 2019 40.5 Calls @ .23 credit
Bought to Close TQQQ Jan 18 2019 45.0 Call @ .05 (sold for 1.65)
WYNN: Covered calls below basis so still rolling…
Rolled WYNN Jan 18 2019 105.0 Call to Feb 15 2019 110.0 Call @ .05 credit
#earnings SLB
Sold Feb. 15, 40/42.5 strangle for 2.18
bought 2, January 25, 38.50 puts for 19 as a hedge for a January 25, 44 put.
Thanks for the data Jeff
UNG strangle
Borrowing an idea from TastyTrade in an underlying relatively uncorrelated with SPX, NDX, etc.
Sold $UNG Feb 15 26/34 strangle @ 1.82.
KSU earnings analysis
#Earnings I’m looking at this for a double calendar. Decent IV crush with small historic moves. However, bid/ask pretty wide so it will depend on the mid-price I can get. I’ll see what I can do in the last hour of the day.
$KSU reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +3.35%
July 20, 2018 BO +2.39%
April 20, 2018 BO +1.55%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO -1.34%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO +1.35%
July 21, 2017 BO +1.13%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.84% Biggest DOWN
Jan. 20, 2017 BO +4.03%
Oct. 18, 2016 BO -2.24%
July 19, 2016 BO +1.88%
April 19, 2016 BO +4.97% Biggest UP
Jan. 22, 2016 BO +4.44%
Avg (+ or -) 2.63%
Bias 1.56%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 103.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 99.64 to 107.36
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 100.78 to 106.22
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.0%): 98.36 to 108.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
TRADES:
ROKU STO 1/25/19 37.5 PUTS @.63
HIIQ STO 1/18/19 33.0 PUTS @.70 ATM Trade for acquiring the stock.
#earnings #shortstrangles #coveredcallcampaign AA Yesterday…
#earnings #shortstrangles #coveredcallcampaign AA
Yesterday sold Feb. 15, 29 straddle for 3.44, bought today for 3.00
Rolled Jan. 18, 30 call to Feb. 15 for .97 covered by assigned shares.
SLB earnings analysis
#Earnings $SLB reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
July 20, 2018 BO -1.24%
April 20, 2018 BO -1.49%
Jan. 19, 2018 BO +0.06%
Oct. 20, 2017 BO -2.09%
July 21, 2017 BO -0.73%
April 21, 2017 BO -2.18%
Jan. 20, 2017 BO -0.81%
Oct. 20, 2016 AC -3.03% Biggest DOWN
July 21, 2016 AC +1.98%
April 21, 2016 AC -0.42%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC +6.10% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 1.68%
Bias -0.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 41.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 39.55 to 42.45
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 40.31 to 41.69
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (6.1%): 38.50 to 43.50
Open for requests on other symbols.
#shortstock MO #ironcondor HD MO…
#shortstock MO #ironcondor HD
MO Jan. 14, sold short 100 shares of MO at 48.29, bought to cover today for 46.79.
HD Jan. 8 sold 155/160/190/195 IC for 1.02, bought today for .51
DENN up today arrgghh
Calendars
$AA gapped down then shot up through my strike. Didn’t get filled on my close order as it went past, now it’s getting too high. Will wait for a drift back down.
$MS gapped down and has stayed down. I bought to close Jan 18th short 29 call for .03, removing upside risk for a possible bounce into tomorrow.
AXP earnings analysis
#Earnings $AXP reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 18, 2018 AC +3.78%
July 18, 2018 AC -2.72%
April 18, 2018 AC +7.58%
Jan. 18, 2018 AC -1.83%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -0.19%
July 19, 2017 AC -0.67%
April 19, 2017 AC +5.91%
Jan. 19, 2017 AC -0.63%
Oct. 19, 2016 AC +9.02% Biggest UP
July 20, 2016 AC -1.62%
April 20, 2016 AC +0.90%
Jan. 21, 2016 AC -12.10% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 3.91%
Bias 0.62%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 99.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 95.21 to 103.79
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 95.51 to 103.29
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 87.37 to 111.43
Open for requests on other symbols.
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
April 16, 2018 AC +9.18%
Jan. 22, 2018 AC +9.97%
Oct. 16, 2017 AC -1.57%
July 17, 2017 AC +13.54%
April 17, 2017 AC -2.64%
Jan. 18, 2017 AC +3.86%
Oct. 17, 2016 AC +19.02% Biggest UP
July 18, 2016 AC -13.12% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2016 AC -12.97%
Jan. 19, 2016 AC -0.13%
Avg (+ or -) 8.04%
Bias 2.10%, positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 350.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 321.39 to 378.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 321.85 to 378.15
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (19.0%): 283.43 to 416.57
Open for requests on other symbols.
SPX 1dte IC
Sold Jan18 (weekly) 2565/2560 put credit spread @ .25 x9 and .30 x4 in two accounts. 7:35 am mst
Sold Jan18 call credit spread 2650/2655 @ .25 x13 to complete the SPX 1dte IC in both accounts. 10:12 mst
SPX 1dte IC expired
SPX Jan16 2640/2645/2535/2530 call/put expired. Sold for .50 x10 yesterday.
MS and AA earnings calendars
#DoubleCalendar #Earnings Forgot about these earlier… just threw them on now.
Bought to Open $MS 18Jan/25Jan 45 double calendar for .334.
Bought to Open $AA 18Jan/25Jan 29 double calendar for .44
#earnings #shortstraddle AA Sold Feb. 15,…
AA Sold Feb. 15, 29 straddle for 3.44. Thanks for the data Jeff.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th (monthlys) 2545/2565-2670/2690 iron condors for .85. These stop trading at tomorrow’s close but settle on Friday morning, so I will close during market hours tomorrow.
Expiring today: Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 condors, sold yesterday for .95.
AA earnings analysis
#Earnings $AA reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 17, 2018 AC +5.85%
July 18, 2018 AC -13.34% Biggest DOWN
April 18, 2018 AC +1.39%
Jan. 17, 2018 AC -7.00%
Nov. 17, 2017 AC -2.74%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -2.53%
July 19, 2017 AC +0.60%
April 24, 2017 AC +9.54% Biggest UP
Jan. 24, 2017 AC -2.58%
Oct. 10, 2016 AC -11.42%
July 11, 2016 AC +5.42%
April 11, 2016 AC -2.66%
Avg (+ or -) 5.42%
Bias -1.62%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 28.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.23 to 30.17
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.67 to 29.73
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (13.3%): 24.44 to 31.96
Open for requests on other symbols.
EOG
Closed out the inverted fly at 97/98/99 that had been converted from a violated credit spread for 0.11 debit. After all said and done made $464 on 10 contracts.
Still have the 110 #fuzzy to manage.
#earnings AA Jeff do you…
#earnings AA
Jeff do you have AA stats? Thanks
More of the same trades:
HIIQ BTO STOCK @32.09
HIIQ STO 1/18/19 33.0 CALL @.60
SFIX STO 1/25/19 21.5 PUT @1.20
SOME TRADES:
HIIQ BTO STOCK @32.40
HIIQ STO 118/19 32.0 CALL @1.30 Expires Friday
SFIX BTO STOCK 20.93 To cover some calls
SFIX STO 1/18/19 21.5 PUTS @.95 To cover w/premium 19.5 & 20.0 Short calls. If they PUT IT TO ME, then I will have the stock to be called, if not I will have the premium.
Market Tide
#Tide I now have the Market Tide indicators on all my charts. Looks pretty solid. Also noticed that SPY 1-hour chart just printed a purple arrow, signaling a possible top for at least a few days.
#assignment Again WYNN Assigned on…
#assignment Again WYNN
Assigned on a Jan. 18 120 put, cost basis of 116.62 after selling the long.
#coveredcallcampaign Sold Jan. 18, 113 call for 1.61, bringing basis to 115.
SPX 7dte IC defense
Per my SPX IC defense plan, I bought back half of my Jan18 2635 short calls. This will allow one of the long calls to run unhedged in case this rally continues into Friday.
SPX 1-dte sold
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 2535/2555-2650/2670 iron condors for .95. Legged in, put spread first for .55 after the Brexit dip, then call spread on the bounce for .40
#coveredcallcampaign AMAT AXDX AMAT sold…
#coveredcallcampaign AMAT AXDX
AMAT sold Feb. 9, 36 call for .42
AXDX sold Feb. 15, 17.50 call for .82, added Feb. 12.50 put for .35
TRADES:
HIIQ BTO STOCK @32.94
HIIQ STO 1/18/19 33.0 CALL @1.20
HIIQ STO 2/15/19 35 CALL @2.15
HIIQ STO 1/18/19 32.0 PUTS To own the stock a little cheaper.
NVDA URI
#ShortPuts #IRA – Playing it safe here. Will be looking for some #Fallingknife trades if we get some earnings implosions…
Bought to Close NVDA Feb 01 2019 120 Put @ .13 (sold for 2.45)
Bought to Close URI Jan 18 2019 110 Put @ .40 (sold for 3.50)
#earnings GS #ironfly kindof I…
#earnings GS #ironfly kindof
I was looking at an #ironbutterly for GS and saw this trade at TastyTrade (Mike Butler).
Sold Feb. 15, 155/175/180/200 for 8.53, GA is at 178.
#earnings #shortstrangles UAL Sold feb…
Sold feb 15, 70/90 strangle for 1.10. Thanks again Jeff
UAL earnings analysis
#Earnings $UAL reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.95%
July 17, 2018 AC +8.78% Biggest UP
April 17, 2018 AC +4.81%
Jan. 23, 2018 AC -11.44%
Oct. 18, 2017 AC -12.07% Biggest DOWN
July 18, 2017 AC -5.90%
April 17, 2017 AC -4.26%
Jan. 17, 2017 AC +0.35%
Oct. 17, 2016 BO -0.31%
July 19, 2016 BO +0.29%
April 20, 2016 BO +0.94%
Jan. 21, 2016 BO +0.46%
Avg (+ or -) 4.63%
Bias -1.03%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 81.20 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 77.15 to 85.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 77.44 to 84.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (12.1%): 71.40 to 91.00
Open for requests on other symbols.
#shortcallspreads TSLA #coveredcallcampaign EWZ Inspired…
#shortcallspreads TSLA #coveredcallcampaign EWZ
Inspired by Iceman-sold Feb. 1, 385/390 call for .80
EWZ rolled Jan. 18, 40 call to Feb. 15 for .57
SPX 1dte IC
Sold SPX Jan16 2640/2645/2535/2530 call/put @ .50 x 10 total in two accounts
Used Tide to time entries per side.
PNC earnings analysis
#Earnings $PNC reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Oct. 12, 2018 BO -5.58% Biggest DOWN
July 13, 2018 BO +0.23%
April 13, 2018 BO -4.11%
Jan. 12, 2018 BO +0.23%
Oct. 13, 2017 BO -1.12%
July 14, 2017 BO -0.11%
April 13, 2017 BO -0.17%
Jan. 13, 2017 BO +0.72% Biggest UP
Oct. 14, 2016 BO +0.10%
July 15, 2016 BO -0.96%
April 14, 2016 BO -0.56%
Jan. 15, 2016 BO -0.62%
Avg (+ or -) 1.21%
Bias -1.00%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 119.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 115.40 to 122.60
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 117.56 to 120.44
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (5.6%): 112.36 to `25.64
Open for requests on other symbols.
#earnings PNC Jef-do you have…
#earnings PNC
Jef-do you have PNC data? Thanks
SPX Feb condor
#SPX1dte On Jan 4th I sold the $SPX Feb 15th 2250/2270-2730/2750 iron condors for 3.00, as a roll from a 1-dte spread that was a .50 loser. The idea is to make back the premium over a longer period while continuing to sell the 1-dte spreads every week.
Today, I closed the put spread side for .50. Order is in to close the call side for .70.
Options Bistro 