#Earnings Sold to close $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.33. Bought yesterday for 1.20. Only a 1-lot… chose not to wait for a pullback when expiration is today and small profit availabe.
Sold to close $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 dbl cal for .04. Bought for .16 on Wednesday.
$DLTR, looking to close ITM call side for .05 or .00
Dub cals didn’t work this week, but losses only totaled .40 plus commissions.
#Jobs Way lower than expected. Wages continue uptick.
+20,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. 180K expected (lowest since Sept 2017)
Unemployment at 3.8%, down 0.2%
U6 unemployment at 7.3%, down 0.8% (biggest drop in over 20 years)
Wages up 0.4%, 3.4% year over year (highest since April 2009)
Labor force participation 63.2%, unchanged
January revised up from 304K to 311K
December revised up from 222K to 227K
STO Mar8 BuPS 2700/2695 @ .3125 x8 (average price)
STO Mar8 BeCS 2790/2795 @ .25 x4
Decided not to bore you with the details of building my trades.
#spx1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 8th 2680/2700-2775/2795 condors for 1.10. (IV 13.48%, SPX 2747)
Also, closed April 5th 2525/2550-2925/2950 condors for 1.75. Sold for 2.60 on 2/20 as a roll. I didn’t want to sit with anything right now as I feel a rush lower could be happening in the coming days.
#ShortPuts – Starter position…
Sold SQ APR 18 2019 65.0 Puts @ 1.30
Overall it’s a welcome selloff the last few days. Getting a lot of my weekly call sales against LEAPS and covered calls back into play…finally
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 40.0 CALLS @1.40
HIIQ STO 3/15/19 39.0 PUTS @2.05 ITM These are usually monthly expirations, but this week only it’s a weekly. ;>)
#Earnings Bought to Open $COST Mar08/Mar15 217.5 #DoubleCalendar for 1.20. As yesterday, filled on TOS but not IB yet.
#Earnings — $BIG reports tomorrow. Below are details on earnings EIGHT-day moves over the last 12 quarters (since next available options expire in 8 days).
Fri 12/07/2018 BO -29.28% Biggest DOWN
Fri 08/31/2018 BO -10.10%
Fri 06/01/2018 BO +4.54%
Fri 03/09/2018 BO -12.93%
Fri 12/01/2017 BO +0.76%
Fri 08/25/2017 BO -4.59%
Fri 05/26/2017 BO +3.28%
Fri 03/03/2017 BO -1.89%
Fri 12/02/2016 BO +8.09%
Fri 08/26/2016 BO -5.76%
Fri 05/27/2016 BO +18.85% Biggest UP
Fri 03/04/2016 BO +8.88%
Avg (+ or -) 9.08%
Bias -1.68%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 31.65 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 27.41 to 35.89
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 28.78 to 34.52
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (29.3%): 22.38 to 40.92
Based on Max UP only (+18.9%): 37.62
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings BIG
Jeff-do you have data on BIG? Thanks
#fuzzy I had been doing well with KR, I actually closed my existing ones just beginning of the week as i had a decent profit in them (I guess luck was part of it…). Now, after that steep drop, i re-entered at 23/25/25 exp Jan 2021. Paid 3$ I BTO 3 contracts to allow me to sell only 2 calls against it, limiting my overall risk in case the stock price would over run my short calls.
#shortcalls
$LABU STO 3/15 57 call at 1.40
#coveredcallcampaign #fallingknife #longputs Trades from yesterday and today
WYNN yesterday rolled 140 call to April for 1.25, WYNN tanking today
CPRI yesterday rolled March 22 call to April 12 for .66
EWZ sold short 100 shares for 41.57
MS bought long April 18, 40/35 BeCS
PFE sold April 18, 44 call, was supposed to be a covered call in an IRA, ended up in wrong account, for .26
CVS today sold April 18, 50 put for .86, thanks @ramie77
MET rolled 42.50 call to April 18 for .57
DB bought April 18, 9 put for .62
#SPX1dte Stopped $SPX March 8th 2720/2700 put spreads for 2.10. Condors sold Monday for 2.03 as a roll.
Expected move breached this morning so this is too risky to hold longer. Was able to get out near break-even on the bounce. I’ll let the 2830/2850 call side expire.
NTNX May be worth a look. 3 days of green open price candles and green volume candles, higher highs and lows. I’m long. Recent falling knife.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls BTC $TQQQ March 8th 50 calls for .78. Sold for 2.15 on Feb 22nd.
#Earnings — $COST reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 13, 2018 AC -8.58% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 4, 2018 AC -5.55%
May 31, 2018 AC -0.55%
March 7, 2018 AC -0.89%
Dec. 14, 2017 AC +3.32%
Oct. 5, 2017 AC -5.97%
May 25, 2017 AC +1.79%
March 2, 2017 AC -4.33%
Dec. 7, 2016 AC +2.43%
Sept. 29, 2016 AC +3.40%
May 25, 2016 AC +3.57% Biggest UP
March 2, 2016 AC -0.77%
Avg (+ or -) 3.43%
Bias -1.01%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 218.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 210.75 to 225.25
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 210.52 to 225.48
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 199.30 to 236.70
Based on Max UP only (+3.6%): 225.78
Open to requests for other symbols.
Not the bullish expectation I had. Biggest down -9% in many a year.
NTNX While most of the stocks on my watchlist are down, this stock has been resilient and solid. It’s a recent falling knife. NOT a recommendation, just FYI.
#earnings KR
Sold April 18, 28 straddle fr 2.75
#Earnings As $DLTR ascends to the heavens, leaving my calendar in the dust, I’m trying another cheap one. $SSYS has an average move of 9% but for 20 cents, worth the shot.
I was filled on TOS with a 1-lot for .16. Kind of crazy. The fill shows I sold the Mar08 short call for 1.49 and bought the Mar15 long call for 1.50. Only a one penny spread? Meanwhile, my order at Interactive Brokers is in for .20 and not filling. Go figure.
Bought to Open $SSYS Mar08/Mar15 26.5 #DoubleCalendar for .16, trying for more at .20
#Earnings Bought to open $BURL Mar 8th 167.5/172.5/175 #BrokenWingButterfly (calls) for 1.40. No upside risk…
Max loss debit paid (1.40) if below 167.25.
Breakeven 168.85.
Max gain, 3.60 if Friday pin at 172.50.
Capped gain if over 175.00, 1.10.
#ShortPuts #IRA – Sold LABU APR 18 2019 45.0 Put @ 2.70
#SPX1dte Closed $SPX March 6th 2760/2740 put spreads for .40. Stop was breached earlier so I watched for a bounce opportunity. Sold yesterday for .95.
#shortputs
$STO 3/15 59.50 puts at 1.60
$LABU STO 4/18 40 puts at 1.65
#Earnings — $KR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Dec. 6, 2018 BO +3.21%
Sept. 13, 2018 BO -9.92%
June 21, 2018 BO +9.74% Biggest UP
March 8, 2018 BO -12.39%
Nov. 30, 2017 BO +6.07%
Sept. 8, 2017 BO -7.50%
June 15, 2017 BO -18.89% Biggest DOWN
March 2, 2017 BO -4.33%
Dec. 1, 2016 BO +3.28%
Sept. 9, 2016 BO +0.63%
June 16, 2016 BO -0.67%
March 3, 2016 BO -7.01%
Avg (+ or -) 6.97%
Bias -3.15%, strong negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 28.80 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 26.65 to 30.95
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 26.79 to 30.81
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (18.9%): 23.36 to 34.24
Based on Max UP only (9.7%): 31.61
Open to requests for other symbols.
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
BTC SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4. Sold @ .25. Profit $80
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4. Pending GTC order @ .05
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ .50 x1 to convert one BuPS to bearish fly. Will keep converting BuPS to flies if price continues down.
BTO SPX Mar6 BePS 2765/2760 @ 1.00 x1 to create another fly. Moved BE on downside to SPX 2757, BE on upside to 2765 and overall max profit cut from $80 to -$70.
Flies closed for $120 loss.
Last two BuPS 2760/2755 expired for $50 profit.
Net profit for all spreads $210
STO September 30 puts @2.45
#Earnings — $BURL reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
I’m posting this one because it has a remarkably bullish response to earnings. Also, in a very long weekly squeeze. Will probably do a bullish butterfly, or maybe try my first #JadeLizard.
Nov. 28, 2018 BO +12.78%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -0.86%
May 31, 2018 BO +7.11%
March 8, 2018 BO +5.84%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO -1.51%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +1.36%
May 25, 2017 BO +4.90%
March 2, 2017 BO +6.66%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +15.98% Biggest UP
Aug. 25, 2016 BO +3.12%
May 26, 2016 BO +7.44%
March 3, 2016 BO -2.78% Biggest DOWN
Avg (+ or -) 5.86%
Bias 5.00%, very strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 170.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 158.81 to 181.19
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 160.04 to 179.96
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (16.0%): 142.83 to 197.17
Based on Max DOWN only (-2.8%): 165.27
Open to requests for other symbols.
NIO BTO STOCK @8.35 Day Trade
#Earnings #LongStraddle Sold to close half of $ANF March 8th 21.5 calls for 3.40 and 3.80. #LongStraddle bought yesterday for 2.94. Holding the rest to see how high we can go.
DLTR 95 #DoubleCalendar, front week premium not going down much yet so sitting on this one for awhile.
#Earnings Bought to close $CRM March 8th 150/152.5/175/177.5 condors for .23. Sold for 1.15 yesterday.
#LongLEAPs #SyntheticCoveredCalls Sold to Open $SQ Mar 15th 79 calls for 1.00
#shortputs
$PYX STO 3/15 25 put at 1.25
$PYX STO 4/18 25 put at 2.01
Trying to get to a high with cannabis premium
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX March 6th 2740/2760-2815/2835 condors for .95. (IV 9.35%, SPX 2792)
Howdy all. I thought I would pop in to see what y’all are up to. I see MamaCash is doing 11-hour trades. I think I saw her in the Base Camp trading room. Here’s a link if you want to take a 30 day trial for $7. Please let me know if you sign up. www.basecamptrading.com.
#Earnings #LongStraddle Bought $ANF March 8th 21.5 straddle for 2.94. Avg Move on earnings: 14.7%. I need a 13.7% move to breakeven.
Also trying for a #DoubleCalendar on $DLTR. Only if I can get filled for .40. Low probability, since it moves decently, but low risk worth the shot.
STO May 17, 60/65 call spread @ .80 cents on a partial fill.
#earnings Z
This took a couple weeks. Feb. 21, sold a March 15, 30/40 strangle for 1.35, with Z around 35. It jumped to a little over 44 and is settling down now below 40. Bought today for .90.
There is some serious premium in NIO, a $10 Chinese auto stock
SLDB BTO STOCK 11.17
#Earnings — $ANF reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +20.91%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -17.15%
June 1, 2018 BO -8.72%
March 7, 2018 BO +11.90%
Nov. 17, 2017 BO +23.90% Biggest UP
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +17.06%
May 25, 2017 BO +8.99%
March 2, 2017 BO +13.94%
Nov. 18, 2016 BO -13.76%
Aug. 30, 2016 BO -20.30% Biggest DOWN
May 26, 2016 BO -15.66%
March 2, 2016 BO +3.64%
Avg (+ or -) 14.66%
Bias 2.06%, Positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 21.50 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 18.76 to 24.24
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 18.35 to 24.65
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (23.9%): 16.36 to 26.64
Open to requests for other symbols.
#Earnings — $DLTR reports tomorrow morning. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
Nov. 29, 2018 BO +6.13%
Aug. 30, 2018 BO -15.54% Biggest DOWN
May 31, 2018 BO -14.28%
March 7, 2018 BO -14.47%
Nov. 21, 2017 BO +2.41%
Aug. 24, 2017 BO +5.62%
May 25, 2017 BO +0.92%
March 1, 2017 BO +0.20%
Nov. 22, 2016 BO +8.15%
Aug. 25, 2016 BO -9.93%
May 26, 2016 BO +12.77% Biggest UP
March 1, 2016 BO +2.21%
Avg (+ or -) 7.72%
Bias -1.32%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 95.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 88.39 to 101.61
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 87.67 to 102.33
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (15.5%): 80.24 to 109.76
Open to requests for other symbols.
#earnings CRM
Yesterday sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, bought this morning for .69
Tasty Trade has new offering. 10 month trial – no strings.
https://luckboxmagazine.com/special-offer/?mc_cid=b6bbb73651&mc_eid=e7ee54e5fd
#becs
$TSLA BTC 3/15 335/325 BECS at .60. STO 2/8 at 3.00.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX March 8th 2700/2720-2830/2850 condors for 2.03. Partial roll for loss taken this morning. (IV 12.34%, deltas .13p, .11c, SPX 2785.
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .30 x4
BTC SPX Mar6 BuPS 2740/2735 @ .05 x4. Sold @ .30. Profit $100
STO SPX Mar6 BeCS 2820/2825 @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar6 BuPS 2760/2755 @ .25×4
Full position on for this round.
I was planning to pause on the ICs due to low vol. Then the low vol went poof. Also, you could say that @hcgdavis made me do it.:-)
#spx1dte
#jadelizards, #lizardpies, #pietrades, #spikedjadelizard, #spycraft
#earnings CRM
Sold April 18, 125/185 strangle for 1.47, thanks for the data Jeff
#VIXIndicator The $VIX just took out the Upside Warning by 1-point. We need to close at 16.97 or higher for this to be a Downside Warning.
#SPX1dte Major suckage… Stopped $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spread for 4.60. What started as a brilliant #RiskReversal turned out to be my biggest loser since December (about 3.00 loss, after all accounted for).
To be expected once you get comfortable allowing spreads to expire. The first time volatility comes back it will take a bite.
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky, Falling Knife
#LongCalls Plumb forgot I still had some of these, otherwise I would have sold at the the opening highs.
Sold to close $SPY March 8th 277.5 calls for 2.30. Bought for 1.67 (avg price), sold for 3.54 (avg price).
#SPX1dte Wow… huge reversal. Got stuck holding some longs that are now worthless… at least I sold enough to make that side overall profitable. But now my put spread is threatened and SPX has passed my stop level.
Could this be the blow-off top that starts a new down trend?
Sold $CVS Apr 18 55 puts @ 1.05 with the stock at 57.22. Prices are better now.
Adding to my position, short the Apr 18 60 puts.
#Earnings Sold to Open $CRM March 8th 150/152.5-175/177.5 #IronCondor for 1.15. I put the order in earlier and didn’t expect it to drop this much. But still looking okay based on historical moves (analysis posted Friday.)
Biggest UP move: 11.0%, Biggest DOWN move: -4.4%, Average move: 3.7%. This is trade is +11.5% and -2.9% OTM.
NTNX STO 3/8/19 32.5 PUTS @.75 Risky
BTC Mar4 2760/2765 BuPS @ .05 x8. STO @ .30. Profit $200
BTC Mar4 2825/2835 BeCS @ .05 x4. STO @ .55. Profit $200
Total profit $400
#spx1dte
Bought to close $NFLX Mar 15 335/325 bull put spread for .70. Sold for 2.55 on 2/13.
NTNX BTO STOCK @33.20 Maybe it will work now. Risky though.
SLDB BTO STOCK @11.14 An add to.
FYI: https://s3.amazonaws.com/tastytradepublicmedia/website/cms/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf/original/MotionInTheMarkets_MAR2019.pdf?mc_cid=9969294415&mc_eid=c66a1885a5
NTNX STC STOCK 33.0 ;>(
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Sold first batch of $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 LONG call spreads for 2.40. Bought for .45 on Friday (and financed by short put spreads sold for .75). Index not looking too strong so I may have to bail with the rest soon.
NTNX BTO STOCK @34.26 & 33.42 Tanked Friday
#shortcalls
$LABU 3/1 60 calls Stock called away. Basis 47.37
$TNDM 3/1 50 calls Stock called away Basis 34.35 Wrote calls on part of position before earnings. Of course earnings were good and stock is now 69.24. Win win for both sides of transaction.
#optionsexpiration
$SPX 2740/2760/2830/2810 IC 1 DTE Thank you @jeffcp66
$NFLX 370 calls (covered)
#rolling
$SQ BTC 4/18 60/70 BUPS and STO 4/18 65/75 BUPS for added a.12 credit. Thank you @ramie77
#earnings
$NVDA BTC 3/15 120/185 straddle @ .20 STO 2/14 for 1.74 Thank you @thomberg1201
#Earnings Sold to Close $VMW #DoubleCalendar final lots for 2.36 and 2.03. Bought for 1.23 yesterday. Avg close price 2.62.
$SPLK splunked out… the only time profit was available was first 5 minutes of the day. Bought for 1.20 yesterday.
Expiring:
$SPX 2740/2760-2810/2830 condors, sold yesterday for 1.10.
$AZO 860/855 put spreads. Call side closed for .35 on Wednesday. Condor sold for 2.28 on Monday.
$SQ 85 calls, sold for 1.08 on Wednesday.
Lottery tickets for next week:
$BUD 75 long puts
$MSTR 58 and 54 long puts
Bought to close $NUGT Jun 21 35 calls @ .35. Sold for 1.01 on 1/30 and 1.20 on 2/20.
Taking around 70% of the profit available, 3 1/2 months early. Who knows what can happen between now and then. I’m out of NUGT completely now so will look to fade another big spike in gold/miners when it happens.
#earnings #assignment AAPL
In December I was assigned shares on 3 different trades from post earnings put spreads as AAPL went from 220 down to 145 from late October to the December market sell off, my timing being impeccable. Fortunately they were put spreads and the long puts provided significant support. I sold the last of the shares after selling covered calls, actually making a little on each set of shares. Whew
#Jobs report for February announced Friday, 8:30am ET
Link to calendar: https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=3&year=2019&cust=us&lid=0
#Earnings — $CRM reports Monday at the close. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters. (5-day moves are not significantly different)
Nov. 27, 2018 AC +10.27%
Aug. 29, 2018 AC -1.71%
May 29, 2018 AC +1.90%
Feb. 28, 2018 AC +2.73%
Nov. 21, 2017 AC -1.81%
Aug. 22, 2017 AC +0.12%
May 18, 2017 AC -0.39%
Feb. 28, 2017 AC +3.02%
Nov. 17, 2016 AC +3.43%
Aug. 31, 2016 AC -4.41% Biggest DOWN
May 18, 2016 AC +4.13%
Feb. 24, 2016 AC +11.03% Biggest UP
Avg (+ or -) 3.75%
Bias 2.36%, strong positive bias on earnings.
With stock at 164.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 153.49 to 174.51
Based on AVERAGE move over last 12 quarters: 157.86 to 170.14
Based on MAXIMUM move over last 12 Q’s (11.0%): 145.91 to 182.09
Open to requests for other symbols.
Jeff, do you have earnings data for CRM?
#SPX1dte I’m still in the early stages of this strategy, and I’m testing ways to vary things up based on market conditions. IV for Monday’s options is only 6.83%, which I think is the lowest I’ve seen this year. Selling the standard .06 delta condor isn’t worth the risk (too cheap). This is when I have gone LONG in the past with mixed success. Today I’m trying a risk/reversal set-up. Mondays have been bullish lately, and in general the market feels pretty stuck in a range, so I don’t fear a big drop yet.
Bought to open $SPX March 4th 2820/2830 cal spreads for .45 (long delta .06, SPX 2795)
Sold to Open $SPX March 4th 2770/2750 put spreads for .75 (short delta .11, SPX 2796)
If nothing happens, I’ll make .30. But hopefully we’ll have an early rally toward my call spread and I can close for a profit while put spread expires.
BTC all spreads for .05. Total profit $350
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .25 x6
STO SPX Mar1 2755/2750 BuPS @ .30 x2
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .25 x4
STO SPX Mar1 2815/2820 BeCS @ .30 x4
OSTK BTO STOCK @19.63 Stock is a little wild.
OSTK STO 3/1/19 20.0 PUTS @.60 Will accept stock if “put” to me @19.40
Options Bistro 